• 제목/요약/키워드: Verification bias

검색결과 74건 처리시간 0.028초

Argo 플로트와 표류부이 관측자료를 활용한 기상청 전지구 해양모델 (NEMO)의 검증: 최신 미해군 해양모델(HYCOM)과 비교 (Verification of the KMA Ocean Model NEMO against Argo Floats and Drift Buoys: a Comparison with the Up-to-date US Navy HYCOM)

  • 현승훤;황승언;이상민;추성호
    • 대기
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.71-84
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    • 2022
  • This paper describes verification results for the ocean analysis field produced by the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) against observed Argo floats and drift buoys over the western Pacific Ocean and the equatorial Pacific during 2020~2021. This is confirmed by a comparison of the verification for the newly updated version of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model/Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM/NCODA) against same observations. NEMO shows that the vertical ocean temperature is much closer to the Argo floats than HYCOM for most seasons in terms of bias and root mean square error. On the other hand, there are overall considerable cold biases for HYCOM, which may be due to the more rapid decreasing temperature at the shallow thermocline in HYCOM. Conclusion demonstrated that the NEMO analysis for ocean temperature is more reliable than the analysis produced by the latest version of HYCOM as well as by the out-of-date HYCOM applied to the precedent study. The surface ocean current produced by NEMO also shows 14% closer to the AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) in situ drift buoys observations than HYCOM over the western Pacific Ocean. Over the equatorial Pacific, however, HYCOM shows slightly closer to AOML observation than NEMO in some seasons. Overall, this study suggests that the resulting information may be used to promote more use of NEMO analysis.

Dynamic Modeling and Verification of Litton's Space Inertial Reference Unit(SIRU) (ICCAS 2003)

  • Choi, Hong-Taek;Oh, Shi-Hwan;Rhee, Seung-Wu
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2003년도 ICCAS
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    • pp.1211-1215
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    • 2003
  • Accurate mathematical models of spacecraft components are an essential of spacecraft attitude control system design, analysis and simulation. Gyro is one of the most important spacecraft components used for attitude propagation and control. Gyro errors may seriously degrade the accuracy of the calculated spacecraft angular rate and of attitude estimates due to inherent drift and bias errors. In order to validate this model, nominal case simulation has been performed and compared for the low range mode and high range mode, respectively. In this paper, a mathematical model of gyro containing the relationships for predicting spacecraft angular rate and disturbances is proposed.

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Design and Development of an Advanced Real-Time Satellite Simulator

  • Kang, Ja-Young;Kim, Jae-Moung;Chung, Seon-Jong
    • ETRI Journal
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 1995
  • An advanced real-time satellite simulator (ARTSS) has been developed to support the ground operations activities of the ETRI satellite control system, such as testing of the system facilities, validation of flight control procedures, verification of satellite commands as well as training of the ground operators. The design of ARTSS is based on the top-down approach and makes use of a modular programming to ensure flexibility in modification and expansion of the system. Graphics-based monitoring and control facilities enhance the satellite simulation environment. The software spacecraft model in ARTSS simulates the characteristics of a geostationary communication satellite using a momentum bias three-axis stabilization control technique. The system can be also interfaced with a hardware payload subsystem such as Ku-band communication transponder to enhance the simulator capability. Therefore, ARTSS is a high fidelity satellite simulation tool that can be used on low-cost desk top computers. In this paper, we describe the design features, the simulation models and the real-time operating functions of the simulator.

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비접촉 축 진동 가진기의 모드 선택성 및 설계인자가 출력에 미치는 영향에 대한 실험적 검증 (Experimental Verification of Mode-selectivity and Effects of Parameters on Outputs in a Noncontact Vibration Exciter for a Shaft)

  • 이호철
    • 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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    • 제21권10호
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    • pp.924-933
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    • 2011
  • The possibility of noncontact excitation of vibrations in a shaft was investigated in order to enable online structural health monitoring of a shaft during its rotating condition without stop operation. The proposed noncontact exciter was devised to exclusively generate one of two shaft vibration modes, so called longitudinal and flexural. Using the prototypes and a lot of experiments on them, it was proven that bias magnetic field, exciting voltage, center frequency, and geometry of yokes have crucial impacts on its output characteristics.

Stochastic finite element based reliability analysis of steel fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC) corbels

  • Gulsan, Mehmet Eren;Cevik, Abdulkadir;Kurtoglu, Ahmet Emin
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.279-304
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    • 2015
  • In this study, reliability analyses of steel fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC) corbels based on stochastic finite element were performed for the first time in literature. Prior to stochastic finite element analysis, an experimental database of 84 sfrc corbels was gathered from literature. These sfrc corbels were modeled by a special finite element program. Results of experimental studies and finite element analysis were compared and found to be very close to each other. Furthermore experimental crack patterns of corbel were compared with finite element crack patterns and were observed to be quite similar. After verification of the finite element models, stochastic finite element analyses were implemented by a specialized finite element module. As a result of stochastic finite element analysis, appropriate probability distribution functions (PDF's) were proposed. Finally, coefficient of variation, bias and strength reduction (resistance) factors were proposed for sfrc corbels as a consequence of stochastic based reliability analysis.

An Approach for GPS Clock Jump Detection Using Carrier Phase Measurements in Real-Time

  • Heo, Youn-Jeong;Cho, Jeong-Ho;Heo, Moon-Beom
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.429-435
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    • 2012
  • In this study, a real-time architecture for the detection of clock jumps in the GPS clock behavior is proposed. GPS satellite atomic clocks have characteristics of a second order polynomial in the long term showing sudden jumps occasionally. As satellite clock anomalies influence on GPS measurements which could deliver wrong position information to users as a result, it is required to develop a real time technique for the detection of the clock anomalies especially on the real-time GPS applications such as aviation. The proposed strategy is based on Teager Energy operator, which can be immediately detect any changes in the satellite clock bias estimated from GPS carrier phase measurements. The verification results under numerous cases in the presence of clock jumps are demonstrated.

산악 지형에서의 토양수분 관측소 구축을 위한 연구(1): Cosmic-ray 검증시스템 구축을 위한 토양수분량 대표성 분석 연구 (A Study for establishment of soil moisture station in mountain terrain (1): the representative analysis of soil moisture for construction of Cosmic-ray verification system)

  • 김기영;정성원;이연길
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제52권1호
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구에서는 Cosmic-ray 토양수분량 관측시스템 구축 시 필요한 검증 네트워크 설계 기법 개발에 목적을 두고 유전율식(dielectric constant) 장비인 Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR)와 연계하여 Cosmic-ray 검증시스템을 구축 운영하였다. Cosmic-ray 검증시스템 평가에 필요한 시범지역은 기존 계측 장비와의 연계성과 다양한 수문자료의 활용성을 고려하여 설마천 유역에 구축하였다. 시범지역은 Cosmic-ray 장비와 FDR 센서(10개소)로 구축하였으며 2018년 7월부터 현재까지 운영되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 검증시스템의 신뢰도를 높이기 위해 코어법(soil core sampling method)을 통해 산출한 용적수분함량(volumetric water content)을 유전율식 장비와 정기적으로 검증하였다. 연구기간 중 수행한 코어법과 FDR 센서를 검증한 결과, 두 자료의 통계량이 $bias=-0.03m^3/m^3$$RMSE=0.03m^3/m^3$의 유의한 값을 보였다. 또한 연구기간 동안 FDR 센서의 시계열 특성은 모든 강우에 정상적으로 반응하였다. 그러나 일부 지점에서는 낙엽 및 캐노피의 차단과 상부사면의 유출 등으로 인해 상이한 특성을 보였다. Cosmic-ray 영향원(influence line) 내 FDR 센서의 대표성 분석은 시간 안정성 해석법(temporal stability analysis, TSA)을 이용하여 토심별(10 cm, 20 cm, 30 cm, 40 cm)로 분석하였다. 10개소에 대한 토심별 토양수분량의 대표성을 TSA로 분석한 결과, 토심 10 cm에서는 FDR 5, 토심 20 cm에서는 FDR 8, 토심 30 cm에서는 FDR 2, 토심 40 cm에서는 FDR 1에서 가장 우수한 대표 특성을 보였다. 본 연구의 시범지역 운영 기간이 짧다는 한계는 있지만 지금까지의 분석 결과를 토대로 하여 볼 때, Cosmic-ray 관측시스템 구축 시에는 검증 장비로는 유전율식을 활용하고, Cosmic-ray 영향원 내 토양수분량의 대표성 분석은 TSA 방법으로 수행하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다.

Accuracy of Combined Visual Inspection with Acetic Acid and Cervical Cytology Testing as a Primary Screening Tool for Cervical Cancer: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

  • Chanthavilay, Phetsavanh;Mayxay, Mayfong;Phongsavan, Keokedthong;Marsden, Donald E;White, Lisa J;Moore, Lynne;Reinharz, Daniel
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권14호
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    • pp.5889-5897
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    • 2015
  • Background: The performance of combined testing visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) and cervical cytology tests might differ from one setting to another. The average estimate of the testing accuracy across studies is informative, but no meta-analysis has been carried out to assess this combined method. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the average sensitivity and specificity of the combined VIA and cervical cytology tests for the detection of cervical precancerous lesions. Materials and Methods: We conducted a systematic review and a meta-analysis, according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Review of Diagnostic Test Accuracy. We considered two cases. In the either-positive result case, a positive result implies positivity in at least one of the tests. A negative result implies negativity in both tests. In the both-positive case, a positive result implies having both tests positive. Eligible studies were identified using Pubmed, Embase, Website of Science, CINHAL and COCRANE databases. True positive, false positive, false negative and true negative values were extracted. Estimates of sensitivity and specificity, positive and negative likelihood (LR) and diagnostic odds ratios (DOR) were pooled using a hierarchical random effect model. Hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristics (HSROC) were generated and heterogeneity was verified through covariates potentially influencing the diagnostic odds ratio. Findings: Nine studies fulfilled inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Pooled estimates of the sensitivities of the combined tests in either-positive and both-positive cases were 0.87 (95% CI: 0.83-0.90) and 0.38 (95% CI: 0.29-0.48), respectively. Corresponding specificities were 0.79 (95% CI: 0.63-0.89) and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96-0.99) respectively. The DORs of the combined tests in either-positive or both-positive result cases were 27.7 (95% CI: 12.5-61.5) and 52 (95% CI: 22.1-122.2), respectively. When including only articles without partial verification bias and also a high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia as a threshold of the disease, DOR of combined test in both-positive result cases remained the highest. However, DORs decreased to 12.1 (95% CI: 6.05-24.1) and 13.8 (95% CI: 7.92-23.9) in studies without partial verification bias for the combined tests in the either-positive and both-positive result cases, respectively. The screener, the place of study and the size of the population significantly influenced the DOR of combined tests in the both-positive result case in restriction analyses that considered only articles with CIN2+ as disease threshold. Conclusions: The combined test in the either-positive result case has a high sensitivity, but a low specificity. These results suggest that the combined test should be considered in developing countries as a primary screening test if facilities exist to confirm, through colposcopy and biopsy, a positive result.

S2S 멀티 모델 앙상블을 이용한 북극 해빙 면적의 예측성 (Predictability of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent from S2S Multi Model Ensemble)

  • 박진경;강현석;현유경
    • 대기
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2018
  • Sea ice plays an important role in modulating surface conditions at high and mid-latitudes. It reacts rapidly to climate change, therefore, it is a good indicator for capturing these changes from the Arctic climate. While many models have been used to study the predictability of climate variables, their performance in predicting sea ice was not well assessed. This study examines the predictability of the Arctic sea ice extent from ensemble prediction systems. The analysis is focused on verification of predictability in each model compared to the observation and prediction in particular, on lead time in Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) scales. The S2S database now provides quasi-real time ensemble forecasts and hindcasts up to about 60 days from 11 centers: BoM, CMA, ECCC, ECMWF, HMCR, ISAC-CNR, JMA, KMA, Meteo France, NCEP and UKMO. For multi model comparison, only models coupled with sea ice model were selected. Predictability is quantified by the climatology, bias, trends and correlation skill score computed from hindcasts over the period 1999 to 2009. Most of models are able to reproduce characteristics of the sea ice, but they have bias with seasonal dependence and lead time. All models show decreasing sea ice extent trends with a maximum magnitude in warm season. The Arctic sea ice extent can be skillfully predicted up 6 weeks ahead in S2S scales. But trend-independent skill is small and statistically significant for lead time over 6 weeks only in summer.

복사전달과정에서 지형효과에 따른 기상수치모델의 민감도 분석 (Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Topographic Effect in the Radiative Transfer Process)

  • 지준범;민재식;장민;김부요;조일성;이규태
    • 대기
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.385-398
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    • 2017
  • Numerical weather prediction experiments were carried out by applying topographic effects to reduce or enhance the solar radiation by terrain. In this study, x and ${\kappa}({\phi}_o,\;{\theta}_o)$ are precalculated for topographic effect on high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) with 1 km spatial resolution, and meteorological variables are analyzed through the numerical experiments. For the numerical simulations, cases were selected in winter (CASE 1) and summer (CASE 2). In the CASE 2, topographic effect was observed on the southward surface to enhance the solar energy reaching the surface, and enhance surface temperature and temperature at 2 m. Especially, the surface temperature is changed sensitively due to the change of the solar energy on the surface, but the change of the precipitation is difficult to match of topographic effect. As a result of the verification using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Automated Weather System (AWS) data on Seoul metropolitan area, the topographic effect is very weak in the winter case. In the CASE 1, the improvement of accuracy was numerically confirmed by decreasing the bias and RMSE (Root mean square error) of temperature at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m and relative humidity. However, the accuracy of rainfall prediction (Threat score (TS), BIAS, equitable threat score (ETS)) with topographic effect is decreased compared to without topographic effect. It is analyzed that the topographic effect improves the solar radiation on surface and affect the enhancements of surface temperature, 2 meter temperature, wind speed, and PBL height.