• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.173-188
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between the logistics industry and the economic growth in Korea, and to provide implications for the contribution of the logistics industry to economic growth. Unlike Previous Related Studies, we derive short-term and long-term effects through dynamic panel analysis such as panel Granger causality test and impulse response function estimation using panel vector error correction model. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows: Labor input of the logistics industry has the greatest positive impact on economic growth. And capital input and total sales of the logistics industry have a negative effect on economic growth. This means that Korea's logistics industry features labor-intensive growth. In addition, We have also found that the growth (sales) and capital input of the logistics industry have not yet had a direct positive impact on economic growth. Therefore, the results of this analysis provide implications for the direction of logistics industry policy to enhance contribution of the logistics industry to economic growth.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.18-33
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• 2020

Purpose - This paper investigated the effect of international trade affects income inequality. It also compares the different effects between developing and developed countries over the period from 2005 to 2014 for 58 countries. Design/methodology - The econometric estimation was used to identify the relationship between export, import, FDI, GDP, unemployment and income inequality. In this empirical analysis, we utilized a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model using panel data. Findings - The findings show that there is a close correlated between trade and income inequality. The higher export ratio of GDP tends to have a 1.79 times more income inequality in developing countries than in developed countries. The higher import ratio of GDP tends to have a 2.44 times higher income inequality in developing countries than in developed countries. Further, Increasing FDI tend to have an approximately 1.43 times higher income inequality in developing countries than in developed countries. Korea is in the middle of developed and developing countries' result. Originality/value - To correct the global income inequality regarding trade, developed countries' proactive trade policies, such as granting preferential tariff benefits to developing countries, are likely to be needed and Income Safety Net in international trade must be taken into account.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.203-212
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• 2023

This research work aims to investigate the role of FDI in Economic Development by assessing its relationship with GDP per capita in Vietnam +5 from 1986-2020. Through descriptive statistical, correlation matrix analysis, and econometric models, including Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimation methods using Stata 15.1. The VECM estimation method results show that FDI positively impacts Economic Development in the short run while not finding a long-run relationship. In addition, it is found that a clear relationship between Exports and Economic Development in both the short run and the long run. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions and Employment Opportunities have no clear relationship with Economic Development in the short run. However, the relationship is reversed in the long run, as the empirical study in Vietnam. The results of the FGLS estimation method show that FDI, CO2 emissions, and Exports have a significant and positive impact on Economic Development in five selected Southeast Asian countries without Employment Opportunities in the long run. From these findings, the author proposes some policy implications of attaching FDI to sustainable Economic Development in Vietnam next time.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.213-222
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• 2023

This paper mainly studies the relationship between financial development, inbound tourism development, and economic growth rate in Fujian Province, China. This study uses the data of real GDP, foreign exchange income from international tourism, and financial interrelations ratio from 1994 to 2019. In the analysis process, the Johansen cointegration test is first used to analyze whether the three have a long-term equilibrium relationship. Then the vector error correction model is established to test the restrictive relationship among the three. Next, the Granger causality test assesses whether the three have a causal relationship. Finally, the contribution rate of the three is analyzed by variance decomposition. The above methods show the following conclusions: first, the three have a long-term equilibrium relationship. Secondly, in the short term, local economic growth is constrained by inbound tourism and financial development. Thirdly, there is a causal relationship between economic growth and inbound tourism in Fujian, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship between financial development and economic growth, financial development, and inbound tourism. Fourthly, the contribution rate of inbound tourism to economic growth fluctuations in Fujian is higher than that of financial development.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.133-154
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• 2022

The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), which is used as an indicator for marine transportation of steel raw materials, is one of the key economic indexes for managing the risk of loss due to rapid market fluctuations when steel companies establish business strategies and procuring plans for raw materials. Still, the conditions of supply and demand of steel raw materials has been extremely affected by volatility shocks from drastic events like the financial crisis such as the Lehman Brothers incident and changes in the external environment such as COVID-19. And, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, endeavors to predict the market conditions of the steel raw material is becoming more and more arduous for the deepening uncertainty and increased volatility of BCI, which has been used as a leading indicator of the real economy. This study investigates the correlation between the steel raw material market and the marine transportation market by estimating the spillover effect of information between markets. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to analyze information transfer based on the correlation between the BCI and crude steel production, capesize fleet supply, raw material price, and cargo volume.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.69-88
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• 2023

This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of cargo volume (demand), ship fleet (supply), and freight rate (price) of container, dry bulk, and tanker shipping markets by using the VAR and VECM models. This analysis is expected to enhance the statistical understanding of market dynamics, which is perceived by the actual experiences of market participants. The common statistical patterns, which are all shown in the three shipping markets, are as follows: 1) The Granger-causality test reveals that the past increase of fleet variable induces the present decrease of freight rate variable. 2) The impulse-response analysis shows that cargo shock increases the freight rate but fleet shock decreases the freight rate. 3) Among the three cargo, fleet, and freight rate shocks, the freight rate shock is overwhelmingly largest. 4) The comparison of adjR² reveals that the fleet variable is most explained by the endogenous variables, i.e., cargo, fleet, and freight rate in each of shipping markets. 5) The estimation of co-integrating vectors shows that the increase of cargo increases the freight rate but the increase of fleet decreases the freight rate. 6) The estimation of adjustment speed demonstrates that the past-period positive deviation from the long-run equilibrium freight rate induces the decrease of present freight rate.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.43-51
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• 2013

The changes in business structure of domestic construction companies suggest that there is a close relationship between the volume of overseas project and a company's financial condition. Based on this assumption, this study conducts an empirical analysis on a relationship between overseas project and financial stability of a construction company. The ratio of liquidity and liability was used as liquidity index and stability index respectively. The analysis was based on quarterly time-series data between 2000 and 2010. Two models were constructed for the analysis: Model 1 was based on the liquidity ratio and the amount of domestic and overseas construction project; Model 2 was based on the debt ratio and the amount of domestic and overseas construction project. The analysis results showed that the increasing amount of overseas project facilitated short-term financing with greater liquidity, and yet it was not very effective in lowering the debt ratio. This suggests that the dramatic increase in overseas construction project, which is observed recently, is not entirely an optimistic sign.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.169-193
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• 2013

This study investigates time series data on internet banking systems and business performances for 5 large-scale banks : Kookmin, Woori, Hana, City, Shinhan. These banks have the common features that they merged with other banks around 2000, hence they experienced massive IS integration between banks. This study adopted VAR and VECM for identifying Granger causality between the quality of internet banking systems and the performances of banks(operating revenue and cost). The main results are as follows. First, internet banking system impacts positively on the revenues as well as costs of banks. Second, the improvement of internet banking system is instigated by cost part more than revenue part. Hence, the results imply that banks tries to reduce operating costs via internet banking systems, however the systems rather increased the costs of banks, although the systems increased operating revenues of banks too.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.485-508
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• 2010

This paper examines the long memory property and investigates cointegration in the dynamics of crude oil markets. For these purposes, we apply the joint ARMA-FIAPARCH model with structural break and the vector error correction model (VECM) to three daily crude oil prices: Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate (WTI). In all crude oil markets, the property of long memory exists in their volatility, and the ARMA-FIAPARCH model adequately captures this long memory property. In addition, the results of the cointegration test and VECM estimation indicate a bi-directional relationship between returns and the conditional variance of crude oil prices. This finding implies that the dynamics of returns affect volatility, and vice versa. These findings can be utilized for improving the understanding of the dynamics of crude oil prices and forecasting market risk for buyers and sellers in crude oil markets.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.3-27
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• 2012

This paper adopts recently developed panel unit root test that is cross-sectionally robust. Cointegration test is also used to find whether regional house prices are in line with gross regional domestic production (GRDP) in the long run in Korea during 1989-2009. Based on the panel VECM and the panel ARDL models, we examine causal relationships among the variables and estimate the long-run elasticity. We find evidence of cointegration and bidirectional causal relationships between regional house prices and GRDP. The results of long-run estimates, using both fixed effect and ARDL models, show that house prices positively and significantly influence on the GRDP and vice versa. Together with these results, the findings of ARDL-ECM imply that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between house prices and regional economic variables even if there is a possibility of short-run deviation from its long-run path.