• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.480-488
• /
• 2016

As the subprime mortgage crisis spread globally, it depressed not only the financial market, but also the construction business in Korea. In fact, according to CERIK, the BSI of the construction businesses plunged from 80 points in December 2006 to 14.6 points in November 2008, and the extent of the depression in the housing sector was particularly serious. In this respect, this paper analyzes the influence of the financial market fluctuation on the housing market before and after the Global Financial Crisis using VECM. The periods from January 2000 to December 2007 and January 2008 to October 2015, before and after the financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, when the economy is good, the Gangnam housing market is an attractive one for investment. However, when it is depressed, the Gangnam housing market changes in response to the macroeconomic fluctuations. Second, the Gangbuk and Gangnam housing markets showed different responses to fluctuations in the financial market. Third, when the economy is bad, the effect of low interest rates is limited, due to the housing market risk.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.1-12
• /
• 2020

The rapid climate change is strengthening carbon emissions regulations internationally. Korea is strongly pressed to accept the obligation to reduce greenhouse gases as one of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article analyzed the Granger causalities among environmental regulation, economic growth, electricity consumption, and CO₂ emission in Korea, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model. As the results, environmental regulation has shown the bidirectional causalities with electricity consumption and CO₂ emission, while being unilaterally affected by economic growth in the long-run and strong relationship. Economic growth has affected electricity consumption, CO2 emission, and environmental regulation in the long-run, in the complex structure of the unilateral and short-run causality with electricity consumption and the bidirectional causality with CO2 emission. The policy implications will be as follows: ① environmental regulation should induce sustainable growth through encouraging technological innovation relating to CO2 reduction and productivity enhancement. ② Responding to the international CO2 reduction regulation, the synthetic policy initiatives will be considered to make synergy effects among policies relating to economic growth, electricity consumption.

• International Commerce and Information Review
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.195-216
• /
• 2013

In this paper, I investigate how international prices affect domestic prices and export prices in Korea by using vector error correction model(VECM) and estimate its impact on international trade. According to the empirical results, international prices, such as world raw material prices and oil prices, make stronger effects on domestic prices, in order of import, export, producer, and consumer prices. And recent years the effect of international raw material prices on domestic prices becomes larger. It implies importers, exporters and producers are more affected by international prices than consumers are. Therefore, the international trade, import and export, is affected by changes in international prices. Firms, especially importing and exporting companies, should do much efforts on risk managing about raw material prices variation, diversification of raw material suppliers, and oversea resources development. The government is needed to support on firms those efforts while doing its economic policies to cope with economic conditions and the price policy.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.3-11
• /
• 2013

The changes in construction business have impact on overall operation of construction companies. Poor business of construction companies following a s low industrial cycle could have broader implications and influences on the industry. Since a construction project involves various stakeholders including public organizations, financial institutions and households, a downturn in construction industry might lead to significant economic loss. In this regard, it is meaningful to examine the relationship between changes in construction business cycles and insolvency of construction companies. This study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between construction business cycles and how much they affect operation of construction companies. To this end, KMV model was used to estimate probability of bankruptcy, which represents business condition of a construction company. To examine construction business cycles, investment amount for different construction types-residential, non-residential, and construction work-was used as a variable. Based on the investment amount, VECM was applied and the analysis results suggested that construction companies should put priority on diversifying project portfolio. In addition, it was shown that once a construction company becomes unstable in business operation, it is hard to recover even when the market condition turns for the better. This suggests that, to improve business operation of a construction company, internal capacity-building is as important as the market condition and other external circumstances.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.17 no.5
• /
• pp.116-124
• /
• 2016

In the past, once apartments were built by housing construction companies, their presale went smoothly. Therefore, the developer and construction companies in Korea were extremely competitive in the housing market. However, when the 1997 foreign exchange crisis and 2008 global financial crisis occurred, the quantity of unsold new housing stocks rapidly increased, which caused construction companies to experience a serious liquidity crisis. This paper aims at analyzing the influence of Liquidity on the Housing Market before and after Macroeconomic Fluctuations using VECM. The periods from September 2001 to September 2008 and from October 2008 to October 2015, which were before and after the Subprime financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, it is important to develop a long-term policy for the housing transaction market to improve household incomes. Second, due to the shortage in the supply of jeonse housing, structural changes in the housing market have appeared. Thus, it is necessary to seek political measures to minimize the impact of transitional changes on the market.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.42 no.6
• /
• pp.546-554
• /
• 2018

The Bulk market, unlike the line market, is characterized by stiff competition where certain ship or freight owners have no influence on freight rates. However, freights are subject to macroeconomic variables and economic external shock which should be considered in determining management or chartering decisions. According to the results analyzed by use of ARIMA Inventiom model, the impact of the financial crisis was found to have a very strong bearing on the BDI index. First, according to the results of the VEC model, the libor rate affects the BDI index negatively (-) while exchange rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). Secondly, according to the results of the VEC model's J ohanson test, the order ship volume affects the BDI index by negatively (-) while China's economic growth rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). This shows that the shipping company has moved away from the simple carrier and responded appropriately to changes in macroeconomic variables (economic fluctuations, interest rates and exchange rates). It is believed that the shipping companies should be more aggressive in its "trading" management strategy in order to prevent any unfortunate situation such as the Hanjin Shipping incident.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.1-17
• /
• 2019

This article analyzes causal relationships among gross domestic product(GDP), electricity consumption, carbon dioxide($CO_2$) emission and foreign direct investments(FDI) inflow of Korea over the period from 1976 to 2014, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). As the results, this article found (1) a long-run bi-directional causality between GDP and electricity consumption, which may imply a negative impact of electricity consumption-saving policy on economic growth, (2) uni-directional short- and long-run causalities running from $CO_2$ emission to GDP, and a uni-directional long-run causality running from $CO_2$ emission to electricity consumption, which can result in a negative impact of $CO_2$ emission reduction policy on economic growth and electricity consumption, (3) a uni-directional long-run causality running from FDI to GDP, and uni-directional short- and long-run causalities running from FDI to electricity consumption, which may result from relatively lower electricity prices than investing countries, (4) no causality between FDI and $CO_2$ emission, which is based on the characteristics of FDI composed of service industries. Considering the above causal relationships among the four variables, the policy implication needs to focus on the electricity demand management based on the relevant R&Ds, and on the gradual transition from fossil fuel- to renewable-energy. Adaptive policy to increase the FDI inflow is also needed.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.43 no.4
• /
• pp.155-175
• /
• 2018

This study estimates the technical efficiency and total factor productivity(TFP) of and analyzes the relationship between TFP and exports for Korean manufacturing companies from 2000 to 2016. Specially, TFP is decomposed into Technical Change(TC), Technical Efficiency Change (TEC), and Sale Effect(SE), and compared between large and small enterprises. First, in the case of technical efficiency, the Korean economy has been very vulnerable to external shocks, such as the sharp decline following the 2008 financial crisis. The efficiency of the electronics, automobile, and machinery sectors is low and needs to be improved. In addition, the technological efficiency of large enterprises is higher than that of SMEs in most manufacturing sub-sectors except for non-ferrous metals. In the case of TFP, most changes are due to TC, and the effective combination of labor, capital and the effect of scale have little effect, suggesting that improvement of internal structure is urgent. In addition, volatility due to the impact of the financial crisis in 2008 was much larger in SMEs than in large companies, so external economic impacts are more greater for SMEs than large enterprises. The relationship between TFP decomposition factors and exports shows that TC has a positive effect only on exports of SMEs. Therefore, in order to increase exports, in the case of SMEs, R&D support to promote technological development is needed. In the case of large companies, it is necessary to establish differentiated strategies for each export market, competitor company, and item to link efficiency and scale effect of exports.