• Title/Summary/Keyword: VECM Model

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Impact Analysis of Economic Fluctuation of Saudi Arabia on Korean Overseas Construction Business (사우디아라비아의 경제변동이 한국의 해외건설 수주에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Jeon, Jae-Keun;Lee, Suk-Won;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2016
  • According to the order receipt report over the past 10 years the overseas construction business total trades were 54.05% and 68.09% done by the Middle East and other industrial facilities respectively. In the Middle East based on data collected in 2014 the country with most overseas construction business is Saudi Arabia with 34.10%, and the industrial facility occupies the larger share with 56%. Overseas construction business is suffering from a reduction in work orders in the Middle East because of the recent oil price reduction. At this point of view, it is necessary to consider economy fluctuation for the diversification of construction type and work orders. This study analyzed, focusing in Saudi Arabia how the economical fluctuations of nations of progress can affect overseas construction business' trade orders. The analysis results demonstrated that most construction types depends on GDP, investment fund. Also industrial facility can be substituted with Architecture and civil engineering. This work is expected to be used as a basis for trade order amount maintenance and construction type diversification.

A Causality Analysis of the different types of onion prices (주요산지 양파 작형별 가격간 인과관계 분석)

  • Yang, Jin-Suk;Kim, Bae-Sung;Kim, Hwa-Nyeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.440-447
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the causation and variation among the various types of onion prices in the major production sites to predict these prices. The Granger causal relationship was tested on the basis of VECM by setting the onion price of the early, middle, and late species as individual variables. The analysis shows that the amount of onions produced in the prior term affects the price of onions for the later period, while garlic in the substitution relationship with onions also affects the prices of onions for the early and middle-variety. On the other hand, the price of the late-variety is affected by the price of the early-variety, and the price of the middle-variety is also affected by the price of the early-variety. If the price of onions on Jeju changes due to other factors, the prices of onions in Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do provinces will be affected. Accordingly, when the production of late-variety increases or decreases in production under any factor and to promote stability of the prices of middle and late-variety through preemptive supply and demand measures when the prices of ultra-breed onions rise or fall due to any factor (Ed- I cannot understand this last sentence and cannot guess at the correct meaning. Please try to rewrite very simply).

A Study on the Causalities Among GDP, Electric Consumption, CO2 Emission and Environmental Regulation in Korea (한국의 경제성장, 전력소비량, 이산화탄소 배출량 및 환경규제 간 인과관계 분석)

  • Jin, Bo-young;Kim, Geun-u;Park, Jung-gu
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2020
  • The rapid climate change is strengthening carbon emissions regulations internationally. Korea is strongly pressed to accept the obligation to reduce greenhouse gases as one of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article analyzed the Granger causalities among environmental regulation, economic growth, electricity consumption, and CO2 emission in Korea, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model. As the results, environmental regulation has shown the bidirectional causalities with electricity consumption and CO2 emission, while being unilaterally affected by economic growth in the long-run and strong relationship. Economic growth has affected electricity consumption, CO2 emission, and environmental regulation in the long-run, in the complex structure of the unilateral and short-run causality with electricity consumption and the bidirectional causality with CO2 emission. The policy implications will be as follows: ① environmental regulation should induce sustainable growth through encouraging technological innovation relating to CO2 reduction and productivity enhancement. ② Responding to the international CO2 reduction regulation, the synthetic policy initiatives will be considered to make synergy effects among policies relating to economic growth, electricity consumption.

Time Series Analysis of the Relationship between Housing Consumer Sentiment and Regional Housing Prices in Seoul (서울시 주택소비심리와 권역별 주택가격의 시계열적 관계분석)

  • Yang, Hye-Seon;Seo, Won-Seok
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2020
  • This study investigated the time-series relationship between housing consumer sentiment and housing prices in the five major districts in Seoul and also analyzed the effect of the housing consumer sentiment on housing prices using Granger Causality and VEC (Vector Error Correction) models. To describe the key results, first of all, housing consumer sentiment and regional housing market prices were closely related to each other, and the consumer sentiment strongly affected the change of housing prices. Second, the housing consumer sentiment was confirmed to have a discriminatory effect on the housing prices among the districts in Seoul in the short term. Specifically, the housing price of the east southern district (ESD) was the main reason for the change in housing consumer sentiment in Seoul, and that the resulting impact was transferred to other districts. Third, it was analyzed that regions other than the ESD would increase the housing prices in the long term as the housing consumer sentiment turned positive, but that the ESD would see a steady tone. Fourth, in the case of relative influence by district, housing (apartment) price fluctuation in a district was generally found to be most affected by adjacent or competitive districts. Through these findings, this study confirmed that there is a clear causality between housing consumer sentiment and housing prices in each district of Seoul and that there is a discriminatory influence on housing consumer sentiment among the districts.