• 에너지공학
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2019

본 논문은 한국을 대상으로 1976년부터 2014년까지 경제성장, 전력소비, $CO_2$ 배출과 외국인직접투자(FDI) 유입 간 인과관계를 단위근 검정, 공적분 검정, 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 적용하여 분석한다. 분석의 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 경제성장과 전력소비 간에는 장기적으로 양방향의 인과관계가 나타나, 상호관계를 고려하지 않은 전력소비절약정책은 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째, $CO_2$ 배출은 경제성장에 대한 단방향의 장 단기적인 인과관계와 전력소비에 대한 단방향의 장기적인 인과관계를 나타내, $CO_2$ 배출 감축정책이 경제성장과 전력소비에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 셋째, FDI 유입은 경제성장에 대해 단방향의 장기적인 인과관계를, 전력소비에 대해 단방향의 장 단기적인 인과관계를 나타내, FDI 유입이 상대적으로 저렴한 전력소비비용에 기반을 둔 것으로 분석되었다. 반면, FDI 유입은 $CO_2$ 배출에 대해서는 인과관계가 없는 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 서비스 산업 중심으로 이루어지는 FDI의 특성에 따른 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 네 변수 간 인과관계들을 고려할 때, 능동적인 전력수요관리를 위한 기술개발의 확대와 화석연료에서 신재생에너지로의 신중한 전환을 위한 정책 등이 모색되어야 한다. 또한 FDI 유치의 증대에 대응하여 에너지절약시설 투자 및 설치를 통해 전력소비 감축을 유도할 필요가 있다.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.495-512
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• 2008

Because Korea and Japan has joined WTO and OECD, it is impossible to carry out a direct export-promoted policy such as export subsidies. Therefore, the only policy which is internationally valid for promoting an export is the export insurance. Hence export insurance system became more useful tool since it's one of the few allowed subsidies under WTO. This paper examines to find the impacts of export insurance on the export supply in Korea and Japan. The period of data is from 1980 to 2006. Unlike previous studies on the effectiveness of export subsidy in export supply, the current study examines the stationarity nature of the concerned variables. The unit root tests show that all variables are not I(0) Time Series. Instead, they are I(1) Time Series. To this, cointegration verification was conducted based on the use of Johansen verification method to define the existence (or non-existence) of long-term balance relationship among variables. The concerned variables are revealed to be cointegrated. In order to analyze, this study introduce a VEC model. In this paper we construct two VEC models. The one is about Korea, the other is about Japan. The empirical evidences show that export insurance system has not contributed to promoting export supply in Japan. But the results of empirical analysis showed significant and positive effects of Korea export insurance upon the export supply.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권11호
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• pp.127-135
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• 2020

This study aims to measure the effects of real interest rate (RIR), gross domestic savings (GDS), and net exports (EN) shocks on Indonesia's economic growth (EG). The focus on Indonesia is unique due to the abundant resources available in the nation, but they are unsuccessful in boosting economic growth. This study applied a quantitative method to comprehensively analyze the correlation between variables by employing Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) combined with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Various procedures are preformed: Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Optimum Lag Test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, as well as Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Error Variance Decomposition Analysis (FEVD). The data were collected from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank from 1986 to 2017. The findings of the study indicated that economic growth responded positively to real interest rate shocks, which implies that when the real interest rate experiences a shock (increase), the economy will be inclined to growth. While, economic growth responded negatively to gross domestic savings and net export shocks. Policymakers are expected to consider several matters, particularly the economic conditions at the time of formulating policy, so that the prediction effectiveness of a policy can be appropriately assessed.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권10호
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• pp.451-459
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• 2020

This study aims to examine the causality between production input and the price of rice in East Java, Indonesia. This study applied a quantitative method to understand in a comprehensive way the correlation between variables. The data used for this study were collected from several sources, including East Java Agriculture Office, Siskaperbapo.com, and Statistics Indonesia (BPS) of East Java. This research was carried out over five years, starting from 2014 to 2018. Furthermore, the data were analyzed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) by employing E-Views (version 7). The findings of this study indicated that, in the long run, the population, rice production, and changes in people's income have a positive effect on price stability, but are inversely proportional if seen in the short term. In comparison, in the long run, farmer exchange rates variable has a negative impact on price stability, and inversely proportional in the short term, which has a positive effect. There are different implications when the people's income increases and the rice price declines; these have great potential to alleviate poverty in East Java, Indonesia. This is due to the fact that the price stability also concerns the welfare of the community.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.57-69
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• 2020

Purpose - This study examines what are the asset market fluctuations in Europe and how each economic variable affects major variables, and explore the dynamics of housing and stock market through Greece. The variables under consideration are balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), M3, real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). We investigate the functional and causal relationships between housing and stock market. Research design, data, and methodology - Vector error correction model (VECM) is used to figure out the dynamic relationships among variables. This study also contains the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root, cointegration, Granger causality test, and impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis by EViews 11.0. Results - The statistical tests show that all variables under consideration have one unit root and there is a longterm equilibrium relationship among variables for Greece. GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN can be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market, while GDP, LOAN, M3, BCA and HOUSING can bring direct effects to stock market in Greece. Conclusions - It can be judged that the policy that affects the lending policy of financial institutions may be more effective than the indirect variable such as monetary interest rate.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.595-605
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• 2021

The objectives of this research are to see if the phenomena of "demand following" and "supply leading" exist in the business cycle, as well as to look at how liquidity and output react to changes in credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and growth rate of real national output. Employing quarterly data of Maluku and North Maluku (2008-2019), this study utilizes VAR/VECM for inferential analysis. This research found three important findings. First, liquidity and output growth influenced each other in the long run. Second, the determinants of output growth for Maluku are liquidity, investment-saving gap, and inflation, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, the gap of investment-saving, and inflation. Third, the determinants of output growth for North Maluku are liquidity, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and the national output-growth, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and national output-growth. The findings of this study supported the hypothesis of demand following and supply leading theory in the Maluku and North Maluku business cycles. This study concludes that economic development would improve if supported by liquidity adequacy through increased deposit growth.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권10호
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• pp.29-38
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• 2022

Ready-made Garments (RMG) export earnings, which are almost 80% of the total exports of Bangladesh, have been recognized as one of the main catalysts for the recent development of the country. Therefore, the need to determine whether the RMG export had served as a mechanism for increasing the GDP growth as well as the economic development of the country is topical and pressing. We have applied the Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to reveal the linkage of RMG export earnings and other variables with the GDP growth rate in Bangladesh. Using data from 1990 to 2020 for Bangladesh, we have found long-run as well as short-run associations among RMG Export earnings, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and GDP growth. A co-integration among the variables is validated through the Johansen Co-integration test. Moreover, a causal correlation running from RMG export earnings to GDP was revealed by the Granger causality test in the long run. Finally, we estimated impulse response functions to observe the variations of model variables in response to a shock. Our result supports the proposition that RMG export earnings are one of the main growth engines in Bangladesh and this sector leads growth in other sectors also in the long term.

• 토지주택연구
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.35-50
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to examine which factors are important in determining the amount of the apartment supply in Changwon City. Additionally, this study is to examine the changes in the determination of the amount of apartment supply in Changwon by dividing it into before and after 2016 as the city showed a large difference in apartment supply that caused structural changes during this time period. This study shows that the increase in the number of housing construction permits in Changwon before 2016 had a negative impact on the housing market as well as causing a decrease in the supply of apartments in Changwon after 2016. As a result of the shortsighted predictions on the housing market of Changwon from before 2016, it still affects the current housing market as of June 2020. The implication of this study is that through the housing market system of Changwon City, they can take the role as a control tower in Changwon City and propose principles and standards for supply control in order to better predict the demand of the housing market.

• 무역학회지
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• 제42권6호
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• pp.131-154
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• 2017

국제무역에서 운송수단의 선택은 일반적으로 화물의 운임이 가장 큰 직접적인 영향을 주지만 그 외 세계경기의 상황과 글로벌 무역규모 그리고 환율 등의 외부변수에 의해서도 민감하게 반응한다. 따라서 국제무역에서 해상 및 항공운송 수출입의 변화에 이러한 외부적 요인 등을 고려하여 어떠한 관계 또는 영향이 있는지를 실증분석을 통해 살펴보고 시사점을 도출하고자 한다. 최근과 같이 환율의 변화가 심할 경우 해상 및 항공운송에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석은 중요한 주제이며 어떠한 운송수단이 환율변화에 더 민감하게 반응하는지에 대한 분석도 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 2000년 1월~2017년 3월까지 월별 자료를 이용하여 환율의 변화와 국내외 경기수준이 해상 및 항공운송에 미치는 동태적 영향을 분석하기 위해 벡터오차수정모형을 이용하였으며, 충격반응함수 및 예측오차 분산분해도 함께 분석하였다.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제13권10호
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• pp.4506-4513
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• 2012

본 연구의 목적은 중국의 전력소비와 경제성장의 인과관계를 분석하고 그 방향을 확인하여 정책적 시사점을 도출하는 것이다. 이러한 목적을 달성하기위해 1971년~2008년 동안의 연간자료를 사용하여 단위근 검정, 공적분 검정, 오차수정모형을 통한 Granger-인과검정을 하였다. 검정결과 중국의 전력소비와 경제 성장사이에는 장, 단기적 양방향 인과성이 발견되었다. 이러한 결과는 중국의 정책분석가에게 몇 가지 유용한 시사점을 제공한다. 첫째: "경제가 발전하려면 전력이 선행해야 한다."라는 중국의 발전전략이 지금도 유효하다. 즉 전력소비의 증가는 경제성장을 촉진한다. 물론 경제성장에 미치는 다른 요인들이 존재하고 전력은 그 일부분이지만 경제성장을 하기위해서는 안정적인 전력공급이 필요하다. 둘째: 본 연구는 실질 GDP의 증가가 전력소비를 늘린다는 주장도 성립함을 확인하였다. 이는 직관적으로 소득이 늘어나면 보다 많은 전력을 필요로 하는 제품사용이나 수요가 증가할 것이다.