• 제목/요약/키워드: VAR Methodology

검색결과 57건 처리시간 0.022초

벡터자기회귀(VAR) 모형을 활용한 온라인 게임 규제 영향에 대한 실증적 연구: 웹보드 게임을 중심으로 (An Empirical Study on the Effects of Regulation in Online Gaming Industry via Vector Autoregression Model)

  • 장문경;전성민;유병준
    • 경영정보학연구
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.123-145
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    • 2017
  • 한국의 게임시장은 전 세계 시장의 약 29%의 시장점유율을 차지할 정도로 급성장하였다. 특히, 온라인게임의 수출 규모는 24억 USD를 달성할 정도로 국가경제에서 큰 비중을 차지하고 있다. 이렇게 게임 산업이 급성장하면서 게임 산업에 대한 국가적 차원의 정책과 규제에 대해 여러 논의가 이루어지고 있다. 특히, 웹보드 게임에 대해 정부는 여러 주무 부처를 통한 셧다운제, 행정처분, 게임산업진흥법 시행령 등 다양한 규제정책을 시행하고 있는 실정이다. 이러한 배경에서 본 연구는 2012년 11월에 이루어진 웹보드 규제정책의 영향을 분석하기 위해 2010년 12월부터 2014년 11월까지 약 4년여 간의 게임 트릭스 시계열 자료를 단위근 검정, 벡터자기회귀(VAR, Vector Auto-Regression) 분석, 그랜저 인과관계 검정을 수행하였다. 이를 통해 웹보드 규제 정책 시행 전후의 웹보드 게임서비스 간의 충격 파급효과와 예측 이용시간 변화를 알아보았다. 분석 결과를 바탕으로 웹보드 규제 정책이 실질적으로 정부가 의도한 결과대로 나타냈는지 알아보고, 나아가 웹보드 게임 산업을 보다 건강하게 발전시키기 위한 전략을 제시하고자 한다.

발효숙성마늘 추출물 첨가 초콜릿 제조 조건의 최적화 (Processing Optimization of Chocolate with Fermented and Aged Garlic Extract)

  • 신지훈;주나미
    • 한국식생활문화학회지
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.216-224
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to aid in the development of the optimal recipe for chocolate with fermented and aged garlic extract (Allium sativum var. pekinense). We added garlic extract in order to increase the nutritional value of the chocolate. The optimal sensory composite recipe was determined, following Central Composites for chocolate with different levels of fermented and aged garlic extract (A) and cream (B), while analysis was performed by Response Surface Methodology, from the date that the sensory evaluation was performed. Ten experimental recipes, including 2 reference points in the composition, were selected. The compositional and functional properties were measured, and physical and sensory values were applied to the mathematical models. Perturbation plots showed the influence of each ingredient on the final product. Measurements showed significant values in lightness, sweetness, pH, hardness and cohesiveness, while sensory measurements showed significant values in color, texture, sourness, bitterness and overall quality. The optimum formulations were calculated by numerical and graphical methods, as being 34.61g fermented and aged garlic extract and 72.68g cream for each 200g chocolate. As well it was revealed that the aptitude of chocolate was more influenced by fermented garlic extract than it was by cream.

The Occurrence and Molecular Characterization of Feline Cryptococcosis in Korea

  • Kim, Yoon Hee;Song, Ae-ra;Hwang, Soo Myung;Hong, Yeon-Jung;Choi, Ul Soo
    • 한국임상수의학회지
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    • 제35권4호
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    • pp.170-173
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    • 2018
  • A spayed female domestic short-hair cat of unknown age was admitted with a large proliferative mass in the face. Cytology and biopsy results suggested infection with Cryptococcus spp. A latex cryptococcal antigen agglutination test and an ALPHA cryptococcal antigen enzyme immunoassay yielded positive results. Results of canavanine-glycine-bromothymol blue agar test, serotyping and molecular typing by URA5 - RFLP and MLST analysis identified the isolates as C. neoformans var. grubii VNI/ST31. Two other cats were also diagnosed with the same methodology showing Crytococcosis with VNI/ST31. Cats presenting with facial or respiratory signs should be assessed for cryptococcosis in Korea.

Asymmetric Effects of Global Liquidity Expansion on Foreign Portfolio Inflows, Exchange Rates, and Stock Prices

  • Rhee, Dong-Eun;Yang, Da Young
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.143-161
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    • 2014
  • This paper examines the effects of global liquidity expansion on advanced and emerging economies by using panel VAR methodology. The results show that global liquidity expansion tends to boost economy by increasing GDP growth and stock prices. However, we find that the effects are asymmetric. The effects of global liquidity on GDP and stock prices are greater and more persistent in emerging economies than in liquidity recipient advanced economies. Moreover, global liquidity appreciates emerging economies' exchange rates more persistently than those of advanced economies. Lastly, while global liquidity expansion increases foreign portfolio investment inflows to Asian countries and liquidity recipient advanced economies, there is no evidence for Latin American countries.

The Effect of Capital Accumulation and Unemployment Rates on GDP in South Korea between 2000 and 2005

  • LEE, Donghae
    • 산경연구논집
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    • 제13권12호
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This research investigates the paths of some important economic variables: government domestic product (GDP), capital accumulation, unemployment rates. Decreasing GDP, declining capital accumulation and higher unemployment affect to South Korea economy. The macroeconomic policies discussed are all capital financed accumulation policy and an enactment of unemployment regulation. Research design, data and methodology: The GDP, capital accumulation rates and unemployment rates are the main macroeconomic issues in the South Korea. This research studies the correlations of the GDP, capital accumulation, and unemployment rates by time series data from 2000 to 2005 in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR). Results: The first, GDP relates a positive effect between the GDP and capital accumulation in the long term. The second, there is the negative relationship between GDP and unemployment rates. Economic growth was strongly supported by employment growth and by declining unemployment. The third, There is positive relationship between unemployment rates and capital accumulation. Conclusions: This research provides that fiscal policy introduce to increasing GDP, private investments and employment rates. The GDP should be major on capital accumulation to increase employment rates in South Korea.

Research on the Environmental Effects and Green Development Path of South Korean Foreign Trade

  • Le, Cao
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제24권7호
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    • pp.93-106
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This paper aims to examine the environmental effects of South Korean foreign trade, and the changing relationship between industrial "three wastes" emissions and foreign trade. Design/methodology - Based on time series data of South Korean foreign trade and industrial "three wastes" from 2009 to 2019, a VAR model was used to analyze the long-term internal links and dynamic changes between foreign trade and environmental pollution. Findings - Variance decomposition analysis shows that for the three types of pollutants, self-impact contributes the most to the variance decomposition. It follows that South Korean foreign trade has a certain negative impact on the environment, and this impact has a certain sustainability. Originality/value - This paper contributes to the study on the relationship between foreign trade and environmental pollution. It theoretically proposes a coordinated development path for foreign trade development and green development based on the environmental impact of foreign trade, to provide a reference for the development of collaborative promotion.

An Analysis of Macro Aspects Caused by Protectionism in Korea

  • Kim, Yuri;Kim, Kyunghun
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - The global trend of protectionism has expanded since the onset of US President Donald Trump's administration in 2017. This global phenomenon has led to a significant reduction in world trade volume and a negative impact on economic development in some countries where the external sector accounts for a large proportion of GDP. Although Korea is a country vulnerable to this deteriorating trade environment, few studies have examined the relationship between protectionism and its business cycles based on Korean data. Thus, this paper investigates the impact of protectionism on Korea's business cycle. Design/methodology - To identify future implications, we conduct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) analysis using monthly Korean data from 1994 to 2015. Macroeconomic variables in the model include the industrial production index, inflation rates, exports (or net exports), interest rates, and exchange rates. For the identification of the shock reflecting the expansion of protectionism, we use an antidumping investigation (ADI) data. Since ADIs are followed generally by the imposition of antidumping tariffs, they have no contemporaneous impact on tariffs and are also contemporaneously exogenous to other endogenous variables in the VAR model. We examine two kinds of ADI shocks i) shocks on Korean exports imposed by Korea's trading partners (ADI-imposed shocks) and ii) shocks on imports imposed by the Korean government (ADI-imposing shocks). Findings - We find that Korea's exports decline sharply due to ADI-imposed shocks; the lowest point at the third month after the initial shock; and do not recover until 24 months later. Simultaneously, the inflation rate decreases. Therefore, the ADI-imposed shock can be regarded as a negative shock on the demand curve where both production and price decrease. In contrast, the ADI-imposing shock generates a different response. The net exports decline, but the inflation rate increases. These can be seen as standard responses with respect to the negative shock on the supply curve. Originality/value - We shed light on the relationship between protectionism and Korea's economic fluctuations, which is rarely addressed in previous studies. We also consider the effects of both protective policy measures on imports to Korea imposed by the Korean government and on policy measures imposed by Korea's trading partner countries on its exports.

주택매매가격 영향요인의 비선형적 효과 분석 (An Analysis of Non-linear Effects of Impact Factors on Housing Price)

  • 장영재
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • 제20권6호
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    • pp.2953-2966
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    • 2018
  • 주택가격은 거시경제상황을 나타내는 다양한 변수들과 밀접한 관계를 지니고 있다. 다수의 선행연구에서는 경제상황 변화 하에서의 주택가격 행태나 여러 변수들과의 관계성에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 본 논문에서는 선행연구를 참고하되 데이터에 근거한 새로운 시각의 실증분석을 실시하고자 하였다. 주택가격에 미치는 잠재적 영향요인들 중 정책금리에 초점을 맞추고 금리충격에 대한 여타 주요 변수들의 비선형적 반응 행태를 분석하였다. 데이터마이닝 기법 중 하나인 랜덤 포레스트 알고리즘을 이용하여 선행연구에서 제시되었던 거시경제변수들의 변수 중요도 점수를 산출하였다. 이 과정을 통해 변수를 선택한 뒤, 비선형성을 포착할 수 있는 모형을 사용하여 충격반응을 산출하였다. 동 모형에 따르면 주택가격의 경우에 있어서 금리 인상 시에만 충격반응이 유의미하게 나타났다. 특히 기존 전통적 VAR(vector autoregression) 방법론에서 포착하지 못한 비선형적 특징에 기인하여 금리 인상 충격의 크기가 커질 경우 그 효과가 정률적으로만 증가하는 것이 아니라 그 이상 증폭될 수 있다는 분석 결과를 얻었다. 이러한 파급효과의 비선형성, 비대칭성은 정책 수단으로서의 금리를 보다 신중한 시각에서 접근해야 함을 의미한다고 하겠다.

대청댐 유역 상수리나무림의 식물사회학적 특성 (Phytosociological Characteristics of Qeurcus acutissima Forest in Daecheong-dam basin)

  • 김성열;문건수;임성빈;백혜정;송원경;최재용
    • 한국환경복원기술학회지
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.85-102
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    • 2021
  • Phytosociological characteristics on Quercus acutissima forests distribution in Daechong-dam basin survey has been carried out using Z.-M. School's methodology and numerical-classification analyses. A total of 43 phytosociological relevés were sampled. Syntaxa were described as Oplismenus undulatifolius-Quercus acutissima community(typicum subcommunity, Phryma leptostachya var. asiatica subcommunity, Ulmus davidiana var. japonica subcommunity), Quercus acutissima community and Quercus variabilis-Quercus acutissima community (typicum subcommunity, Castanea crenata subcommunity). The above three plant communities were classified with species composition reflecting local environmental characteristics of mountain topographies, inclination degrees, and rock exposure rates. Conclusively, those communities were recognized as secondary vegetation affected by high intensity and frequency of human impacts as they inhabited in southward hill lands and low lying grounds in mountains adjacent to human settlements and arable lands. Quercus acutissima community was classified as rural type syntax based on their inlandward distribution and species composition differences from urban forests. Afforest process and natural succession were discussed in relation with habitat environmental elements of Quercus acutissima forest in the survey area.

Investigating the Interaction Between Terms of Trade and Domestic Economy: In the Case of the Korean Economy

  • Han, Yongseung;Kim, Myeong Hwan;Nam, Eun-Young
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.34-46
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - This paper aims to analyze the impact of the terms of trade, export price, and import price on the Korean economy (that is, real GDP, CPI, money market rate, and real effective exchange rate), and vice versa in the simple vector autoregression. Design/methodology - We impose two assumptions, i.e., diagonality and bloc exogeneity, to correctly identify the impact of a factor to the others in the structural equation. With two contemporaneous assumptions in the structural VAR, this paper investigates the impacts of the terms of trade on the Korean economy and vice versa. Findings - Impulse responses to the shocks in the terms of trade and Korean economy show that 1) an impact of the terms of trade on the economy is different in export prices and in import prices. A higher export price is beneficial to the economy while a higher import price hurts the economy, and 2) an increase in real effective exchange rate and in interest rate constrains domestic production and lowers consumer prices. Originality/value - Unlike the conventional perception that a depreciation of a currency would promote exports and domestic production at the price of inflation, our result shows the opposite, and 3) real GDP and consumer prices are positively correlated. That is, an increase in real GDP does not only cause inflation, but an increase in consumer prices also promote domestic production. Yet, the only difference is that export prices and import prices end up higher with an increase in real GDP, but lower with inflation.