• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.507-510
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• 2008

In this paper, we present a method of editing use case scenario for use case description. It presents interaction between scenario steps for automating the step numbering in editing scenarios and identify elements of scenario steps, extension and data structure and maintaining relationship of success scenario and ex tension.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.115-125
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• 2010

In the field of game design, scenarios are essential part. But general-purpose tools for production of game scenarios have not been developed yet. In order to solve these problems, we studied the difference between game scenarios and other scenarios and analyzed scenario UCC(User Created Contents) and created suitable forms of game scenarios. To make OSMU(One Source Multi Use) easier, we use XML-based format of game scenario. To verify the possibility for practical application of XML-based format, we wrote a game scenario with scenario editor that we made and applied it to scenario-based game 'FEEL Online'.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.75-84
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes in a rural small watershed. HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A2 scenario and LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator) were used to generate future climatic data. Future land use data were also generated by the CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov) method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate hydrologic impacts. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with stream flow measured at the Baran watershed in Korea. The SWAT model simulation results agreed well with observed values during the calibration and validation periods. In this study, hydrologic impacts were analyzed according to three scenarios: future climate change (Scenario I), future land use change (Scenario II), and both future climate and land use changes (Scenario III). For Scenario I, the comparison results between a 30-year baseline period (1997~2004) and a future 30-year period (2011~2040) indicated that the total runoff, surface runoff, lateral subsurface runoff, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration increased as precipitation and temperature for the future 30-year period increased. The monthly variation analysis results showed that the monthly runoff for all months except September increased compared to the baseline period. For Scenario II, both the total and surface runoff increased as the built-up area, including the impervious surface, increased, while the groundwater discharge and evapotranspiration decreased. The monthly variation analysis results indicated that the total runoff increased in the summer season, when the precipitation was concentrated. In Scenario III, the results showed a similar trend to that of Scenario II. The monthly runoff for all months except October increased compared to the baseline period.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2015

Climate change lead to environmental pollution caused by the radical economic growth and development of industry. The amount of damage from abnormal climate is increasing rapidly for this reason in Korea. In particular, the cities is a lot of carbon emission quantity from the radical growth. Thus the government present "low carbon green growth" for eco-friendly city planning. As one of the important factors effecting climate change, active researches on land use change is performed. In this study, we knew land use change of each scenarios using land use equilibrium model which is kind of predictive model of land use in Japan. First, we selected study area to Jeju lsland. For this study, indicators for input data were selected and spatial data for input data were established using GIS program. Second, we established future scenarios based in 2040s. There are 2 future scenarios: dispersion scenario, compact scenario. Third, we compared with residential area of current and residential area for future scenarios. Results showed that residential area of the difference between current and dispersion scenario were 1,230 ha and residential area of the difference between current and compact scenario were 1,515 ha. Finally, for comparing carbon dioxide absorption volume between dispersion scenarios and compact scenarios, we calculated carbon dioxide absorption volume according to residential area decreased of each future scenarios. Results showed that carbon dioxide absorption volume in dispersion scenario was 477,878 ton and carbon dioxide absorption volume in compact scenario was 588,606 ton. Therefore, the study showed that land use equilibrium model is expected to put to use for future enhancement in creating data for climate change stabilization. And it is also expected to be utilized for city planning research in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.91-103
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• 2003

Use case modeling on UML (Unified Modeling Language) is getting widely used in OOAD and CBD and it is considered a useful technique in dealing with the complexity of the requirements analysis. However, some of the problems with use case modeling are that it is not structured, difficult to handle non-functional requirements, and to analyze impacts among use cases. To alleviate these problems, we propose a scenario-based goal-oriented approach for use case modeling. The proposed approach is to apply a goal-oriented analysis method to use case modeling. Since goal-oriented analysis method is not systematic and many heuristics are involved, we have adopted scenarios as the basis for goal extraction. The proposed method is applied to CBIS (City Bus Information Subsystem) in ITS (Intelligent Transportation System) domain. The proposed approach helps software engineers to analyze the impact among use cases and represent non-functional requirements.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.203-214
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• 2011

The objectives of this research were to predict land-use/land-cover change at the Sakaerat Environmental Research Station (SERS) and to analyze its consequences on the distribution for Black-crested Bulbul (Pycnonotus melanicterus), which is a popular species for bird-watching activity. The Dyna-CLUE model was used to determine land-use allocation between 2008 and 2020 under two scenarios. Trend scenario was a continuation of recent land-use change (2002-2008), while the integrated land-use management scenario aimed to protect 45% of study area under intact forest, rehabilitated forest and reforestation for renewable energy. The maximum entropy model (Maxent), Geographic Information System (GIS) and FRAGSTATS package were used to predict bird occurrence and assess landscape fragmentation indices, respectively. The results revealed that parts of secondary growth, agriculture areas and dry dipterocarp forest close to road networks would be converted to other land use classes, especially eucalyptus plantation. Distance to dry evergreen forest, distance to secondary growth and distance to road were important factors for Black-crested Bulbul distribution because this species prefers to inhabit ecotones between dense forest and open woodland. The predicted for occurrence of Black-crested Bulbul in 2008 covers an area of 3,802 ha and relatively reduces to 3,342 ha in 2020 for trend scenario and to 3,627 ha for integrated-land use management scenario. However, intact habitats would be severely fragmented, which can be noticed by total habitat area, largest patch index and total core area indices, especially under the trend scenario. These consequences are likely to diminish the recreation and education values of the SERS to the public.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.165-172
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• 2017

Current scenarios for marine spill accidents were developed based on probable maximum spill accidents. However,, accidents of similar scale to maximum spill accidents are virtually non-existent, and training or deployment of response equipment based on these scenarios can be cost prohibitive. Current scenarios require realism for practical use and need to be designed for purpose of use. In this study we developed scenarios that may replace current scenarios by using the HNS accident standard codes based on past accident cases. Scenarios were developed by modularizing the HNS accident standard code, that is classified into three scenarios: Maximum Frequency Scenario, Maximum Damage Scenario, and Maximum Vulnerability Scenario. The situation of an accident presented in each scenario developed in this process is much like a real accident, and therefore, it is has practical application.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.77-86
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• 2012

This study was aim to predict future land-cover changes and to analyze regional land-cover changes in irrigation areas and agricultural reservoir watersheds under climate change scenario. To simulate the future land-cover under climate change scenario - A1B of the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. For the study areas, 8 agricultural reservoirs were selected from 8 different provinces covering all around nation. The simulation results from 2010 to 2100 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. For Madun reservoir in Gyeonggi-do, total decrease amount of paddy area was a similar amount of 'Base demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020 published by MLTMA (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs), while the decrease amounts of paddy areas in other sites were less than the amount of 'High demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020. Under A1B scenario, all the land-cover results showed only slight changes in irrigation areas of agricultural reservoirs and most of agricultural reservoir watersheds will be increased continuously for forest areas. This approach could be useful for evaluating and simulating agricultural water demand in relation to land-use changes.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.129-147
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• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.149-161
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• 2012

Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.