• Title/Summary/Keyword: Urban Dynamics

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Dynamic Model of a Long-term Water Demand Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이나믹스를 이용한 도시 물수요 장기 예측의 동적 모델 연구)

  • Lee, Sangeun;Choi, Dongjin;Park, Heekyungh
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2007
  • When one forecasts urban water demand in a long-term, multivariate model can give more benefits than per capita requirement model. However, the former has shortcomings in that statistically high explanatory power cannot be obtained well, and change in customer behavior cannot be considered. If the past water consumption effects the future water demand, dynamic model may describe real water consumption data better than static model, i.e. the existing multivariate model. On these grounds, this study built dynamic model using system dynamics. From a case study in Seoul and Busan city, dynamic model was expected to forecast water demand more descriptively and reliably.

Satellite monitoring of land and vegetation and its potential application in urban sustainability

  • Feng, Xue-zhi;Ramadan, Elnazir
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.78-81
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    • 2003
  • The present study illustrates a method for monitoring the urban vegetation around Shaoxing city, Monitoring spatiotemporal changes in urban areas will become increasingly important as the number and proportion of urban residents continues to increase. The synoptic view of urban land cover provided by satellite and airborne sensors is an important complement to in situ measurements of physical, environmental and socioeconomic variables in urban settings. The results obtained have revealed a notable change in the vegetation cover in and around the City premises. In this study, we discussed methodology for measurement of urban vegetation and vegetation distributions based on band ratioing in Shaoxing city using Land sat TM imageries. A systematic analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation in urban areas is required to ensure a healthy sustainable environment.

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Administrative Consolidation Modeling and Simulation Works between Cheongju and Cheongwon

  • Kim, Yeon-Sik;Hong, Sung-Ho;Seong, Tae-Young;Lee, Man-Hyung
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.81-104
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    • 2009
  • 이 연구는 청주와 청원의 행정구역 통합에 따른 파급효과를 유량-저량 다이어그램 모형을 구축하여 분석하는 데에 역점을 두며, 제시한 모형은 행정구역 통합에 대한 이론적 고찰과 청주와 청원의 역사적 배경에 토대를 두고, 도시를 구성하는 주요 지표의 인과관계에 기초한다. 첫째, 인구수 측면에서 통합이 이루어질 때의 인구가 분리되어 있을 때의 인구보다 상대적 많이 늘어난다. 분리된 상태에서도 청주와 청원의 인구는 전반적으로 증가 추세를 나타내지만, 통합이 이루어질 경우에는 청원의 인구 유입이 상대적으로 큰 폭으로 늘어나는 경향을 보인다. 둘째, 공무원 수의 측면에서는 통합이 이루어질 때에는 종전에 비해 다소 적은 수의 공무원이 근무하리라고 기대되지만, 그 차이는 미미 하리라고 예측된다. 셋째, 산업체 수와 종업원 수는 인구측면의 시뮬레이션 결과와 유사한 형태를 나타냈다. 통합이 이루어질 경우에는 청주의 산업체수의 변화는 미미하지만, 청원은 산업체 수와 종업원 수에서의 변화가 분리 시나리오에서 보다 큰 증가세를 나타낸다. 넷째, 지방세 수입 측면에서는 통합과 분리 시나리오에 의한 결과 차이가 크지 않았는데, 이는 관련 법령 및 규정에서 통합과 분리에 따른 차이를 조정하고 있기 때문이다. 과거 추세의 측면에서 청주는 지방세 수입 부분이 수렴되고 있는 구조를 나타내고 있으며, 청원은 증가하는 구조를 나타내는데, 청원은 산업체 수와 토지가격의 상승에 따른 세금의 증가로 지방세 규모에서 청주와의 차이가 점차 줄어드리라고 예상한다. 다섯째, 사회기반시설 측면에서 상수도보급률과 도로연장 부문은 통합 시나리오와 분리 시나리오의 결과 차이가 크지는 않았으나, 구축 속도의 측면에서는 통합되는 경우가 청원 지역에 유의미한 효과를 미친다. 왜냐하면 청주에서는 사회기반시설의 상당 부분이 이미 구축되어 있고, 통합 되는 경우에도 사회기반시설측면의 지역개발비가 상당 부분 청원 지역에 우선투자 되도록 통합시 이행결의문이 마련되어 있기 때문이다. 다만, 통합이 이루어지지 않은 경우에도 청원의 사회기반시설 구축은 지속적으로 이루어지리라고 기대된다.

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Change of Thermal Environment with Urban Expansion (도시 확장에 따른 온열환경의 변화)

  • Kim, Sang-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.95-101
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    • 2007
  • The surface changes due to urban expansion and the increase of artificial heat releases have brought significant climate changes such as heat island phenomenon in urban area. Furthermore, these changes also have brought serious problems such as air temperature increase, wind changes, and air pollution in urban area. Comprehensive analytical technologies considering various effects are required to analyse complicated mechanism of climate changes, and review the efficient measures. In this research, the effect of the urban expansion in Tokyo and Bangkok area on urban environment will be discussed. By using CFD, urban development and the mechanism of global warming and wind change are studied in those two cities. As a result of numerical research, the surface changes of city could bring the environmental changes in urban area.

Microbial Community Dynamics in Batch High-Solid Anaerobic Digestion of Food Waste Under Mesophilic Conditions

  • Yi, Jing;Dong, Bin;Xue, Yonggang;Li, Ning;Gao, Peng;Zhao, Yuxin;Dai, Lingling;Dai, Xiaohu
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.270-279
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    • 2014
  • Microbial community shifts, associated with performance data, were investigated in an anaerobic batch digester treating high-solid food waste under mesophilic conditions using, a combination of molecular techniques and chemical analysis methods. The batch process was successfully operated with an organic removal efficiency of 44.5% associated with a biogas yield of 0.82 L/g $VS_{removal}$. Microbial community structures were examined by denaturing gel gradient electrophoresis. Clostridium and Symbiobacterium organisms were suggested to be mainly responsible for the organic matter catabolism in hydrolysis and acidogenesis reactions. The dynamics of archaeal and methanogenic populations were monitored using real-time PCR targeting 16S rRNA genes. Methanosarcina was the predominant methanogen, suggesting that the methanogenesis took place mainly via an aceticlastic pathway. Hydrogenotrophic methanogens were also supported in high-solid anaerobic digestion of food waste through syntrophism with syntrophic bacterium. Microbial community shifts showed good agreement with the performance parameters in anaerobic digestion, implying the possibility of diagnosing a high-solid anaerobic digestion process by monitoring microbial community shifts. On the other hand, the batch results could be relevant to the start-up period of a continuous system and could also provide useful information to set up a continuous operation.

Effect Analysis of Healthy City Policies on Residents' Walking (시스템사고로 본 건강도시화 정책이 지역주민의 걷기실천율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Eun-Jung;Kim, Young-Pyo
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.25-45
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the effects of healthy city policies on residents' walking. In order to estimate promotion of walking rates by healthy cities policies, it developed System dynamics(SD)-based model which showed causal relationships among urban design, public health policies, and walking levels. SD technique is useful for future forecast and policy impact assessment. The spatial units of the SD-based system for policy impact assessment included 66 cities, counties, and communities in Seoul Metropolitan Area. The system simulation was planned to be run for 21 years from 2009 to 2030. For this study, 3 alternatives were proposed with combinations of length of bike lanes, number of bus routes, crime rates, self-reported good health status rates, and obesity rates. As a result of simulations, residents' participation rates for walking were increased from 1.00% to 9.98%. This study contributes to better understanding the benefits of healthy cities that are associated with individual walking. It further provided useful insights into planners' role in promoting health. The paper concluded with a discussion on future research opportunities and implications for public policies in urban and transportation and public health.

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An Analysis of the Effects of Fine Dust Reduction Policies on PM10 Concentration and Health Using System Dynamics (시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 미세먼지 저감 정책이 미세먼지 농도와 건강에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Seho Lee;Jung Eun Kang;Ji-Yoon Lee;Minyeong Park;Ji Yoon Choi
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.318-337
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    • 2023
  • This study utilizes system dynamics to examine the effects of fine dust reduction policies on PM10 concentration and health. System dynamics has the advantage of modeling the dynamic and circular relationship between PM10 emission sources, reduction policies, PM10 concentration, and health effect. The study created policy scenarios for Korea's representative fine dust reduction policies - industrial PM10 emission control, diesel vehicle regulation, expansion of electric vehicles, and expansion of parks and green areas - and compared the results with the 2030 baseline if the current trend is maintained. The analysis showed that the policy of supporting electric vehicles reduced PM10 concentration by 0.21 ㎍/m3 and reduced the number of people with circulatory diseases by 494, and the effect was evenly distributed across the country. The industrial emissions regulation scenario resulted in the highest PM10 concentration reduction of 0.22 ㎍/m3, but had a lower reduction in the number of people affected (358) than the EV support strategy, which could be attributed to the fact that this policy had a particularly high PM10 reduction effect in industrial areas such as Danyang-gun, Chungcheongbuk-do, and Sahagu, Busan. As a policy implication, this study suggests that it is necessary to apply fine dust policies tailored to the characteristics of local emission sources.

Building Back Better: Distribution Dynamics in Post-Pandemic Urban Resilience

  • Choongik CHOI
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This paper aims to tackle the challenges and opportunities of cities' response to COVID-19 and provide cities with policy implications for better adapting to the post-pandemic era. Cities around the world are facing new challenges and have had to adapt to maintain social distancing measures while also addressing equity and social inclusion issues. Research design, data and methodology: The research methodology relies on an examination of existing literature, coupled with trend analysis employing discourse analysis to investigate post-pandemic urban resilience. The article also attempts to employ the concepts of adaptive urbanism and spatial flexibility and their potential to address these challenges not only in response to the pandemic, but also in the long-term. Results: The article explores the impact of COVID-19 on urban spatial structure through a public health lens and proposes actions that cities are able to take to enhance their resilience in the aftermath of the pandemic. Conclusions: It underscores the significance of reconstructing with improved distribution dynamics and provides valuable guidance for companies and policymakers on navigating these challenges. Ultimately, it also suggests that the pandemic has initiated a worldwide restructuring of urban planning, potentially leading to the emergence of smart cities grounded in science and technology.

Forecasting a Gyeongju's Local Society Change Using Urban Dynamics Model (도시동태모델을 이용한 경주 지역사회변화 예측)

  • Lee, Young-Chan
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2008
  • This study analyzes the changes of Gyeongju local society because of setting up low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site by using urban dynamics model. Specifically, after examining 'Gyeongju Long-Term Development Plan' announced in 2007, I establish the number of industries, population, gross local product, residents' income, and the long term employment condition as essential change-causing factors in Gyeongju local society based on the Big3 government project, and forecast it by using 'Gyeongju long-Term Development Plan' and all sorts of statistical data. In this stage, I assume 3 scenarios(basic, optimistic, and pessimistic view) to estimate the changes of local society more exquisitely, and scenarios are composed through mediation about variables of a growth rate and an inflow or outflow rate. The result shows that Gyeonaju local society would have growing changes by 2020. The essential change-causing factors are as follows. The case of population is estimated that it starts going down at the level of approximately 270 thousand by 2009, starts going up continuously after 2009, the year of completion of low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site, and increases from the level of about 300 thousand as minimum to 340 thousand as maximum in 2020. The estimates of other cases are made that the number of Industries has about 10 thousand increases, gross local product has almost 6 trillion increases, nominal gross national income doubles, as well as residences have approximately 280 thousand increases, and also made that employment condition also improves continuously, and diffusion ratio of house starts going up but the amount of supplies is a little bit insufficient in the long view.