• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.295-301
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• 2023

To broaden the utilization of nuclear energy, uranium as a fuel should be mined indispensably. Mining accounts for the largest portion of the cost of producing the uranium assembly. Therefore, this study analyzes the trends of uranium prices, which have a significant impacts on the mining cost. Uranium production contributing to the price fluctuations is explained in five periods from 1945 to the present. Moreover, the series of events affecting uranium prices from the 1970s until the present are verified. Among them, the most recent incidents considered in this study are the following: COVID-19 pandemic, Kazakhstan unrest, and Russia-Ukraine war. European countries have started to reconsider the transition to nuclear power to reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas, which has contributed to the surge in uranium prices. Based on the results of this study, various international issues have been closely associated with the nuclear power industry and uranium, affecting the production of uranium and its price.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.6
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• pp.1334-1339
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• 2020

This paper presents an empirical and comprehensive forecasting analysis of the uranium price. Prices are generally difficult to forecast, and the uranium price is not an exception because it is affected by many external factors, apart from imbalances between demand and supply. Therefore, a systematic analysis of multiple forecasting methods and combinations of them along repeated forecast origins is a way of discerning which method is most suitable. Results suggest that i) some sophisticated methods do not improve upon the Naïve's (horizontal) forecast and ii) Unobserved Components methods are the most powerful, although the gain in accuracy is not big. These two facts together imply that uranium prices are undoubtedly subject to many uncertainties.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.5
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• pp.1063-1070
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• 2017

This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.295-310
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• 1975

A system of model price data for the fuel cost estimation of the Go-ri plant is developed. With the application of MITCOST-II computer code the levelized unit fuel costs over the entire lifetime of the plant are evaluated. It is found that the overall levelized unit fuel cost is 7.332 mills/Kwhe and that the uranium ore and enrichment service represent more than 85% of the unit cost, assuming a simple once-through fuel cycle process with no reprocessing of the spent fuel. The effects of the cost fluctuations in these fuel cycle elements and the capacity factor changes are also evaluated. The results indicate that the fuel costs are most sensitive to the variation of uranium ore price. Efforts must, therefore, be employed for the arrangement of cheap and timely supply of uranium ore in order to achieve the economic generation of nuclear power.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.151-163
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• 1977

Being based on the Segal method, calculation was carried out for the natural uranium nuclear fuel cost with Zircaloy-4 cladding having design Parameters of Wolsung Nuclear Power Plant, CANDU-PHWR (Unit 1) , currently under construction in Korea aiming at its completion in 1982. An attempt was also made for tile sensitivity analysis of each fuel component; j. e., depreciation of fuel manufacturing plant caused by its life time, its load factor, production scale expansion of plant facilities, variations of construction and operating costs of fuel manufacturing plant, fluctuation of interest rates, extent of uranium ore price increases and effect of learning factor.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.265-286
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• 2009

Dumping describes the practice of international price discrimination whereby a producer or exporter sells merchandise in an export market at less than fair value. The U.S. antidumping statutory framework is embodied in the Tariff Act of 1930. The Act states that "dumping" refers to the sale or likely sale of goods at less than fair value. 19 U.S.C. $\S$ 1677(34). The Commerce Department and the Commission are jointly responsible for administering the antidumping law. Commerce determines whether foreign merchandise is being sold in the United States at less than fair value, and the Commission determines whether a domestic industry producing a product like the imported merchandise has been materially injured or threatened with material injury by reason of imports of that product. Recently, in U.S. v. Eurodif, the Supreme Court held the question whether the Commerce can reasonably determin that foreign merchandise has been sold within the meaning of the antidumping law in U.S.. Should 19 U.S.C. Section 1673, which calls for "antidumping" duties on foreign goods, but not services, that sell at less than fair value in the U.S., apply to imported low enriched uranium? Yes. In a unanimous opinion written by Justice David H. Souter, the Supreme Court held that the Commerce Department's view of imported low enriched uranium, as the sale of goods rather than services, was permissible. It reasoned that, since 19 U.S.C. Section 1673 did not specify whether it applied to the production of low enriched uranium, it was left to the reasonable interpretation of the Commerce Department to determine. Accordingly, the Court found the Commerce Department interpreted the statute reasonably.

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.264-269
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• 2001

Large amounts of orange juice are produced in Japan every yea.. Accompanied by the production of orange juice, large amount of juice residues are also generated in nearly the same amounts with juice. Although, at present, some of these residues are marketed as a feed for cattle after drying and mixing with lime, the marketing price is lower than its production cost and the difference is paid by the consumers as a part of the price of orange juice. In the present work, we developed new innovative use of orange juice residue, a biomass waste, as adsorption gel for removing toxic heavy metals such as lead. arsenic, selenium and so on as well as radioactive elements such as uranium and thorium from environments. The major components of orange juice residue are cellulose. hemicellulose and pectin, which are converted into pectic. acid, an acidic polysaccharide, by means of saponification with concentrated sodium hydroxide solution. In the previous work, we found that crosslinked pectic acid gel strongly an selectively adsorbs lead over other metals such as zinc an copper. On the other hand. it is well known that polysaccharides such as cellulose can be easily phosphorylated and that phosphorylated polysaccharides have high affinity to uranium and thorium as well as some trivalent metals such as ferric iron and aluminum. Taking account of the noticeable characteristics of these polysaccharides, 2 types of adsorption gels were prepared from orange juice residue: one is the gel which was prepared by saponificating the residue followed by crosslinking with epichlorohydrin and another is that prepared by crosslinking the residue followed by phosphorylation. The former gel exhibited excellent adsorptive separation behavior for lead away from zinc owing to high content of pectic acid while the latter gel exhibited that for uranium and thorium. Both types of adsorption gels exhibited high affinity to ferric iron, which enables selective and strong adsorption for some toxic oxo-anions of arsenic (V and III), . selenium and so on via iron loaded on these gels. These results demonstrate that biomass wastes such as orange juice residue can be effectively utilized fer the purpose of removing toxic heavy or radioactive metals existing in trace or small amounts in environments.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.383-390
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• 2011

Nuclear power has become an essential part of electricity generation to meet the continuous growth of electricity demand. A Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) was developed to extend uranium resource utilization under a growing nuclear energy scenario while concomitantly providing a nuclear waste management solution. Key questions in this scenario are when to introduce SFRs and how many reactors should be introduced. In this study, a methodology using Linear Programming is employed in order to quantify an optimized growth pattern of a nuclear energy system comprising light water reactors and SFRs. The optimization involves tradeoffs between SFR capital cost premiums and the total system U3O8 price premiums. Optimum nuclear growth patterns for several scenarios are presented, as well as sensitivity analyses of important input parameters.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.15-31
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• 1977

New conception of batch and period is defined appropriate for the on-power refuelling scheme of a heavy water-moderated reactor, A computer code (“HWRCOST”) is developed using nuclear fuel cycle economic equations based on the continuous energy calculation method. The fuel cycle cost of the CANDU-PHW reactor is calculated and sensitivity analyses are performed with variation of uranium ore price, fabrication cost, spent fuel permanent disposal expenses, and capacity fctor.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.306-314
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• 2015

This paper examines the difference in the value of the nuclear fuel cycle cost calculated by the deterministic and probabilistic methods on the basis of an equilibrium model. Calculating using the deterministic method, the direct disposal cost and Pyro-SFR (sodium-cooled fast reactor) nuclear fuel cycle cost, including the reactor cost, were found to be 66.41 mills/kWh and 77.82 mills/kWh, respectively (1 mill = one thousand of a dollar, i.e., $10^{-3}$ $). This is because the cost of SFR is considerably expensive. Calculating again using the probabilistic method, however, the direct disposal cost and Pyro-SFR nuclear fuel cycle cost, excluding the reactor cost, were found be 7.47 mills/kWh and 6.40 mills/kWh, respectively, on the basis of the most likely value. This is because the nuclear fuel cycle cost is significantly affected by the standard deviation and the mean of the unit cost that includes uncertainty. Thus, it is judged that not only the deterministic method, but also the probabilistic method, would also be necessary to evaluate the nuclear fuel cycle cost. By analyzing the sensitivity of the unit cost in each phase of the nuclear fuel cycle, it was found that the uranium unit price is the most influential factor in determining nuclear fuel cycle costs.