• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.19 no.1_2
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• pp.439-445
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• 2005

This paper is to investigate the approximate confidence limits of the reliability performances (such as failure rate, reliability function and average life) for a cold standby series system. The Bayesian approximate upper confidence limit of failure rate is obtained firstly, and next Bayesian approximate lower confidence limits for reliability function and average life are presented. The expressions for calculating Bayesian lower confidence limits of the reliability function and average life are also obtained, and an illustrative example is examined numerically by means of the Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, the accuracy of confidence limits is discussed.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.221-230
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• 2004

The probability of causation(PC) is the measure to ascertain the likelihood that a particular cancer may be attributed to a particular prior exposure to radiation. Since the PC is involved in several uncertainties, it is desirable to use the confidence limit for the PC, not a point estimate for determining whether to award compensation. We developed the program for estimating the PC to Korean radiation workers with cancer, the so-called RHRI-PEPC, which is based on the most reasonable model for radiation cancer risk and recent Korean baseline data. RHRI-PEPC gives us the upper confidence limit for the PC after adjusting several uncertainties and therefore we can assess more reasonably the causality of radiation exposure for cancer occurred in Korean radiation workers.

• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.168-172
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• 2000

Prostatic length and height on sagittal images and prostatic width and height on transverse images were measured ultrasonographically to establish upper limit of the prostate in 45 dogs which were clinically healthy and sexuallly intact. Linear 5regression and correlatin analysis were performed between prostatic parameters(length and height on sagittal images & width and height on transverse images) and parameters related to body size(body weight, left kidney length) and age of the dogs. Prostatic parameters were significantly correlated with body size and age of the dogs. Maximum predicted values with body weight and age for prostatic parameters were determined based o the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the mean predicted values. Such values should be useful for the small animal clinicians in determining if the prostate gland is too large for a given body weight and age, and may contribute to clinicl signs.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.82 no.3
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• pp.271-282
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• 2022

The active learning surrogate model based on adaptive sampling strategy is increasingly popular in reliability analysis. However, most of the existing sampling strategies adopt the trial and error method to determine the size of the Monte Carlo (MC) candidate sample pool which satisfies the requirement of variation coefficient of failure probability. It will lead to a reduction in the calculation efficiency of reliability analysis. To avoid this defect, a new method for determining the optimal size of the MC candidate sample pool is proposed, and a new structural reliability analysis method combining polynomial chaos-based Kriging model (PC-Kriging) with adaptive sampling region is also proposed (PCK-ASR). Firstly, based on the lower limit of the confidence interval, a new method for estimating the optimal size of the MC candidate sample pool is proposed. Secondly, based on the upper limit of the confidence interval, an adaptive sampling region strategy similar to the radial centralized sampling method is developed. Then, the k-means++ clustering technique and the learning function LIF are used to complete the adaptive design of experiments (DoE). Finally, the effectiveness and accuracy of the PCK-ASR method are verified by three numerical examples and one practical engineering example.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.485-493
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• 2018

Statistical analysis has found useful application in the design of experiments (DOE) especially optimization of concrete ingredients however, to be able to apply the concept properly using computer aided applications there has to be an upper and lower limits of responses fed to the system. In this study, the production of high-performance steel fiber concrete (HPSFC) at five different fiber addition levels by volume with two aspect ratios of 60 and 83 were studied under two curing methods completely dry cured (DC) and moist cured (MC) conditions. In other words, this study was carried out for those limits based on material properties available in North Cyprus. Specimens utilized were cubes 100 mm size casted and cured for 28 days and tested for compressive strength. Minitab 18 statistical software was utilized for the analysis of results at a 5 per cent level of significance. Experimentally, it was observed that, there was fluctuation in compressive strength results for the two aspect ratios and curing regimes. On the other hand P-value hypothesis evaluation of the response showed that at the stated level of significance, there was a statistically significant difference between dry and moist curing conditions. Upper and lower limit values were proposed for the response to be utilized in DOE for future studies based on these material properties. It was also suggested that for a narrow confidence interval and accuracy of the system, future study should increase the sample size.

• Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.87-98
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• 1999

The objectives of this study were to evaluate exposures to airborne methylene chloride and postshift carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) in blood of workers engaged in processes using blowing or cleaning agents, and to investigate correlation between methylene chloride concentrations and the blood COHb levels of workers. The geometric mean (GM) of workers' exposures (8 hour-time weighted averages, TWA) to airborne methylene chloride during cleaning molds using rags wetted with the solvent in the manufacture of flexible polyurethane foam (GM = 61.4 ppm), during operating the dip tank for cleaning molds in the manufacture of lens (GM = 61.0 ppm), and during cleaning the blowing nozzles by spraying the solvent in the manufacture of shoes (GM = 117.2 ppm) were exceeded the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) Threshold Limit Value ($TLV^{(R)}$)-Time Weighted Average (TWA) (50 ppm). The COHb levels were significantly different among groups (p<0.05). The average COHh levels in blood of non-smoking workers were 2.0% in. low-level (<50 ppm) exposure group, and 3.9 % in high-level (>50ppm) exposure group. The average COHb levels in smoking workers were 3.1% in low-level exposure group, and 4.8% in high-level exposure group. The blood COHb levels of no-exposed workers to methylene chloride were 1.8% in non-smoking group, and 2.8% in smoking group. It was found that the COHb level dependeds on the methylene chloride concentration and smoking habit, and was highly correlated with methylene chloride concentration in air. The correlation coefficient was 0.81 among non-smoking workers. The estimated COHb level (3.6%) and 95% upper confidence limit (4.0%) corresponding to TLV-TWA of methylene chloride exceeded the current ACGIH Biological Exposure Index (COHb 3.5%) for carbon monoxide. The estimated COHb level (5.4%) at 100 ppm exceeded the standard (5%) recommended by National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) for preventing adverse cardiovascular effect. The estimated COHb value and 95% upper confidence limit at 25 ppm of the Occupational Safety and Health. Adminstration (OSHA) Permissible Exposure Limit-TWA (PEL-TWA) were 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively. It is suggested that COHb in blood be kept below 3.0% to comply with OSHA PEL-TWA.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.107-112
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• 2008

To evaluate uncertainty and risk in biological reference points, we applied a bootstrapping method and a Bayesian procedure to estimate the related confidence intervals. Here we provide an example of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of turban shell, Batillus cornutus, estimated by the Schaefer and Fox models. Fitting the time series of catch and effort from 1968 to 2006 showed that the Fox model performs better than the Schaefer model. The estimated MSY and its bootstrap percentile confidence interval (CI) at ${\alpha}=0.05$ were 1,680 (1,420-1,950) tons for the Fox model and 2,170 (1,860-2,500) tons for the Schaefer model. The CIs estimated by the Bayesian approach gave similar ranges: 1,710 (1,450-2,000) tons for the Fox model and 2,230 (1,760-2,930) tons for the Schaefer model. Because uncertainty in effort and catch data is believed to be greater for earlier years, we evaluated the influence of sequentially excluding old data points by varying the first year of the time series from 1968 to 1992 to run 'backward' bootstrap resampling. The results showed that the means and upper 2.5% confidence limit (CL) of MSY varied greatly depending on the first year chosen whereas the lower 2.5% CL was robust against the arbitrary selection of data, especially for the Schaefer model. We demonstrated that the bootstrap and Bayesian approach could be useful in precautionary fisheries management, and we advise that the lower 2.5% CL derived by the Fox model is robust and a better biological reference point for the turban shells of Jeju Island.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.481-488
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• 2014

An analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to LBLOCA using the Monte-Carlo calculation has been performed and compared with the tolerance level determined by the Wilks' formula. The uncertainty range and distribution of each input parameter associated with the LOCA phenomena were determined based on previous PIRT results and documentation during the BEMUSE project. Calulations were conducted on 3,500 cases within a 2-week CPU time on a 14-PC cluster system. The Monte-Carlo exercise shows that the 95% upper limit PCT value can be obtained well, with a 95% confidence level using the Wilks' formula, although we have to endure a 5% risk of PCT under-prediction. The results also show that the statistical fluctuation of the limit value using Wilks' first-order is as large as the uncertainty value itself. It is therefore desirable to increase the order of the Wilks' formula to be higher than the second-order to estimate the reliable safety margin of the design features. It is also shown that, with its ever increasing computational capability, the Monte-Carlo method is accessible for a nuclear power plant safety analysis within a realistic time frame.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 1995.10a
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• pp.30-30
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• 1995

We present the results of analysis on the X-ray observations of the binary X-ray pulsar Her X-I. made with ASCA/SIS on August 13-14. 1993. An eclipse transition from ingress to egress was fully covered by the observations. The main findings are as follows; (1) a model of power-law plus black-body is required to interpret the entire eclipse spectrum. and the black-body component appears at < 0.7 keV. (2) the power-law continuum which has photon index ${\alpha}\;=\;{0.84^{\;+0.14}}_{\;-0.19}$ is very similar to that of detected by Ginga/LAC (${\alpha}\;=\;0.80\;{\pm}\;0.04$), (3) the calculated eclipse flux of $2^{-10}\;keV.{\;}~{\;}1.8{\pm}10^{-11}{\;}ergs{\;}cm^{-2}s^{-1}$, is consistent with the Ginga observation carried out in the high intensity state ~2.0{\pm}10^{-11}{\;}ergs{\;}cm^{-2}s^{-1}$, (4) there is no significant absorption feature. and an upper limit of the aborption column $NH{\;}\leq{\;}3{\pm}10^{20}\;cm^{-2}$ is determined at the 90% confidence limit. Based on these results, we suggest that extended matter surrounding the binary system should be existed persistently with stable conditions, and scattering of the source continuum by the matter is responsible for the eclipse emission.ission.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.14-20
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• 2012

A properly determined separation minima applied in Air Traffic Management(ATM) is critical for safe and efficient aircraft operations. The separation minima is primarily determined by the accuracy performance of surveillance system, and, due to the stringent aviation safety standard, the position accuracy of the surveillance system must be estimated with a high level of reliability. This study proposed a method for estimating the position accuracy of surveillance system with a relatively small amount of data by finding upper confidence limit instead of maximum likelihood values of unknown parameters. Through the proposed method, it is possible to determine a required separation minima with a more reliability in the face of data scarcity which often occurs when we implement a new surveillance system such as Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B).