• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.112-120
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• 2011

The early phase of design intrinsically contains multiple sources of uncertainty in describing design, and nevertheless the decision-making process at this phase exerts a critical effect upon drawing a successful design. This paper proposes a set-based design approach for multi-objective design problem under uncertainty. The proposed design approach consists of four design processes including set representation, set propagation, set modification, and set narrowing. This approach enables the flexible and robust design while incorporating designer's preference structure. In contrast to existing optimization techniques, this approach generates a ranged set of design solutions that satisfy changing sets of performance requirements.

• 농촌계획
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.125-135
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• 2013

Analysis and evaluation of uncertainty is adopting the advanced methodology among the methods for greenhouse gas emission assessment that was defined in GPS2000 (Good practice guideline 2000) and GPG-LULUCF (GPG Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry). In 2006 IPCC guideline, two approaches are suggested to explain the uncertainty for each section with a national net emission and a prediction value on uncertainty as follows; 1) Spread sheet calculation based on the error propagation algorithm that was simplified with some assumptions, and 2) Monte carlo simulation that can be utilized in general purposes. There are few researches on the agricultural field including greenhouse gas emission that is generated from livestock and cultivation lands due to lack of information for statistic data, emission coefficient, and complicated emission formula. The main objective of this study is to suggest an evaluation method for the uncertainty of greenhouse gas emission in agricultural field by means of intercomparison of the prediction value on uncertainties which were estimated by spread sheet calculation and monte carlo simulation. A statistic analysis for probability density function for uncertainty of emission rate was carried out by targeting livestock intestinal fermentation, excrements treatment, and direct/indirect emission from agricultural lands and rice cultivation. It was suggested to minimize uncertainty by means of extraction of emission coefficient according to each targeting section.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.767-779
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• 2017

Automated mission planning for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is difficult because of the propagation of several sources of error into the solution, as for any large scale autonomous system. To ensure reliable system performance, we quantify all sources of error and their propagation through a mission planner for operation of UAVs in an obstacle rich environment we developed in prior work. In this sequel to that work, we show that the mission planner developed before can be made robust to errors arising from the mapping, sensing, actuation, and environmental disturbances through creating systematic buffers around obstacles using the calculations of uncertainty propagation. This robustness makes the mission planner truly autonomous and scalable to many UAVs without human intervention. We illustrate with simulation results for trajectory generation of multiple UAVs in a surveillance problem in an urban environment while optimizing for either maximal flight time or minimal fuel consumption. Our solution methods are suitable for any well-mapped region, and the final collision free paths are obtained through offline sub-optimal solution of an mTSP (multiple traveling salesman problem).

• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.122-130
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• 2000

Due to the inherent dimensional uncertainty, the tolerances accumulate in the assembly of plasma cutting torch. Tolerance accumulation has serious effect on the performance of the plasma torch. This study proposes a statistical tolerance propagation model, which is based on matrix transform. This model can predict the final tolerance distributions of the completed plasma torch assembly with the prescribed statistical tolerance distribution of each part to be assembled. Verification of the proposed model was performed by making use of Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulation generates a large number of discrete plasma torch assembly instances and randomly selects a point within the tolerance region with the prescribed statistical distribution. Monte Carlo simulation results show good agreement with that of the proposed model. This results are promising in that we can predict the final tolerance distributions in advance before assembly process of plasma torch thus provide great benefit at the assembly design stage of plasma torch.

• 한국농업기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농업기계학회 1993년도 Proceedings of International Conference for Agricultural Machinery and Process Engineering
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• pp.1254-1263
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• 1993

Representing knowledge uncertainty , aggregating evidence confidences , and propagation uncertainties are three key elements that effect the ability of a rule-based expert system to represent domains with uncertainty . Fuzzy set theory provide a good mathematical tool for representing the vagueness associated with a variable when , as the condition of a rule , it only partially corresponds to the input data. However, the aggregation of ANDed and Ored confidences is not as simple as the intersection and union operators defined for fuzzy set membership. There is, in fact, a certain degree of compensation that occurs when an expert aggregates confidences associated with compound evidence . Further, expert often consider individual evidences to be varying importance , or weight , in their support for a conclusion. This paper presents a flexible approach for evaluating evidence and conclusion confidences. Evidences may be represented as fuzzy or nonfuzzy variables with as associat d degree of certainty . different weight can also be associated degree of certainty. Different weights can also be assigned to the individual condition in determining the confidence of compound evidence . Conclusion confidence is calculated using a modified approach combining the evidence confidence and a rule strength. The techniques developed offer a flexible framework for representing knowledge and propagating uncertainties. This framework has the potention to reflect human aggregation of uncertain information more accurately than simple minimum and maximum operator do.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2001년도 학술대회지
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• pp.81-87
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• 2001

동적 변화가 상존하는 건설환경에서, 보수·리모델링 프로그램의 관리자는 자원하의 복수 프로젝트를 조정·관리하는데 어려움을 겪게 된다. 프로그램에 내재하는 불확실성과 상호종속성으로 인해, 단위작업의 지연과 그로 인한 연쇄적인 공정계획의 동요는 프로그램 전체의 안정성과 관리가능성을 저해한다. 본 논문은 먼저 건설관리에 적용되었던 생산관리기법들이 프로그램관리에 적용될 수 있는가를 살펴본 후, 프로그램 내부의 자원유동의 흐름에 주기적으로 버퍼를 설치하는 공정 안정화 모델을 제안하고자 한다. 몬테-칼로 시뮬레이션에 의한 비교실험으로 제안된 버퍼 관리모델의 성능을 프로그램의 생산성, 유연성, 그리고 안정성의 관점에서 분석하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권9호
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• pp.2816-2829
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• 2021

Decay heat residuals of spent nuclear fuel (SNF), i.e., the differences between calculations and measurements, were obtained previously for various spent fuel assemblies (SFA) using the Polaris module of the SCALE code system. In this paper, we compare decay heat residuals to their uncertainties, focusing on four PWRs and four BWRs. Uncertainties in nuclear data and model inputs are propagated stochastically through calculations using the SCALE/Sampler super-sequence. Total uncertainties could not explain the residuals of two SFAs measured at GE-Morris. The combined z-scores for all SFAs measured at the Clab facility could explain the resulting deviations. Nuclear-data-related uncertainties contribute more in the high burnup SFAs. Design and operational uncertainties tend to contribute more to the total uncertainties. Assembly burnup is a relevant variable as it correlates significantly with the SNF decay heat. Additionally, burnup uncertainty is a major contributor to decay heat uncertainty, and assumptions relating to these uncertainties are crucial. Propagation of nuclear data and design and operational uncertainties shows that the analyzed assemblies respond similarly with high correlation. The calculated decay heats are highly correlated in the PWRs and BWRs, whereas lower correlations were observed between decay heats of SFAs that differ in their burnups.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제43권12호
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• pp.1011-1027
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• 2010

모형의 구조, 모델링에 사용되는 자료, 매개변수 등에 포함된 다양한 불확실성 원인들은 수문모의 및 예측결과에 있어 불확실성을 야기한다. 본 연구에서는 강우-유출 및 강우-유사유출 모의가 가능한 분포형 강우-유사-유출 모형을 용담댐 상류유역인 천천유역에 적용하여 수문곡선 및 유사량곡선의 재현성을 평가하고, 다중최적화기법인 MOSCEM을 이용하여 강우-유출 모듈, 강우-유사유출 모듈의 매개변수를 독립적으로 보정한 경우(Case I과 II), 그리고 두 모듈이 결합된 강우-유사-유출 모형의 매개변수를 동시에 보정한 경우(Case III)에 대하여 Pareto 최적해를 추정하고, 이에 따른 수문 예측결과의 불확실성을 평가한다. 매개변수 불확실성의 전이에 따른 수문곡선의 불확실성 평가 결과(Case I), 모의기간 동안 고유량보다는 저유량 부분에서 불확실성 범위가 두드러졌으며, 이에 반해, 유사량곡선의 경우(Case II) 저농도보다는 고농도 부분에서 불확실성 범위가 넓게 분포하였다. 강우-유사-유출 모형의 매개변수의 불확실성을 동시에 추정한 경우 수문곡선 및 유사량곡선 모두 Case I과 II에 비해 모의기간 전반에 걸쳐 불확실성 범위가 넓게 분포되었으며, 매개 변수의 불확실성으로 인해 대상유역내 격자별 침식 및 퇴적 공간분포 양상이 상이하게 나타났다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.2293-2302
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• 2013

홍수위험관리에서 홍수범람도는 가장 기본적인 자료로 사용되고 있다. 그러나 홍수범람도 구축과정에서 다양한 형태로 불확실성이 발생하기 때문에 이는 정확한 홍수 방재계획 수립에 걸림돌로 작용할 수 있다. 그러므로 불확실성 요소를 제거하거나 개선하여 홍수범람도의 정확성을 향상시키는 것이 필요하나, 모든 불확실성을 완벽하게 제거하는 것은 경제적 타당성과 홍수에 대한 지식의 한계 때문에 불가능하며 매우 비효율적일 수 있다. 또한, 홍수범람도에 전달되는 불확실성 요소의 영향은 다른 환경변수에 따라 다를 수 있기 때문에 다양한 주변 환경의 조건을 고려한 불확실성 요소에 대한 민감도 분석이 필요하다. 이를 통하여 제거해야하거나 개선시켜야할 불확실성 요소의 우선순위를 정함으로써 전략적이면서도 효율적인 홍수위험관리를 유도할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구는 주변 환경의 조건에 따라 홍수범람도에 미치는 불확실성 요소의 민감도를 FOA방법을 이용하여 분석하고, 이를 미국 Indiana주 Columbus시 근처의 Flatrock 강에 적용하여 홍수범람도에 가장 큰 불확실성을 전달하는 요소를 선별하였다. 본 연구결과는 하나의 불확실성 요소가 다른 입력변수나 매개변수와 같은 주변 환경에 의해 홍수범람도에 다르게 영향을 준다는 것을 확인하였으며 또한, 대상유역의 홍수범람도 구축과정에서 가장 큰 불확실성 요소는 지형자료로 판명되었다.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.255-257
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• 2007

We propose an improved selective randomized load balancing (ISRLB) robust scheme under the hose uncertainty model for a special double-hop routing network architecture. The ISRLB architecture maintains the resilience properties of Valiant's load balancing and reduces the network cost/propagation delay in all other robust routing schemes.