• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.25-32
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• 2001

The major purpose of this paper is to develop an uncertainty estimate for the calibration of thermopile instruments used to measure solar radiation parameters. We briefly describe the solar radiation parameters most often measured, instrumentation, reference standards, and calibration techniques. The bulk of the paper describes elemental sources of error and their magnitude. We then apply a standard error analysis methodology to combine these elemental error estimates into a statement of total uncertainty for the instrument calibration factor. Our results allow one to evaluate the accuracy of a radiometric measurement using thermopile instrumentation in the light of the application, such as engineering test evaluation or for validation of theoretical models.

• International Journal of Fluid Machinery and Systems
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• 제2권4호
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• pp.278-285
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• 2009

Operational modal analysis (OMA) allows modal parameters, such as natural frequencies and damping, to be estimated solely from data collected during operation. However, a main shortcoming of these methods resides in the evaluation of the accuracy of the results. This paper will explore the uncertainty and possible variations in the estimates of modal parameters for different operating conditions. Two algorithms based on the Least Square Complex Exponential (LSCE) method will be used to estimate the modal parameters. The uncertainties will be calculated using a Monte-Carlo approach with the hypothesis of constant modal parameters at a given operating condition. In collaboration with Andritz-Hydro Ltd, data collected on two different stay vanes from an Andritz-Hydro Ltd Francis turbine will be used. This paper will present an overview of the procedure and the results obtained.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지하수토양환경학회 2000년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.23-30
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• 2000

A calculation technique which estimates natural recharge was proposed and prepared with the existing techniques. And the necessity to obtain representative averages of 'specific yield' was discussed.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.299-312
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• 2014

An uncertainty propagation methodology based on the Monte Carlo method is applied to PWR nuclear design analysis to assess the impact of nuclear data uncertainties. The importance of the nuclear data uncertainties for $^{235,238}U$, $^{239}Pu$, and the thermal scattering library for hydrogen in water is analyzed. This uncertainty analysis is compared with the design and acceptance criteria to assure the adequacy of bounding estimates in safety margins.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2003

To estimate the annual WTP for risk reduction of environmental problems such as outdoor and indoor air pollution, and drinking water contamination, a questionnaire survey was conducted by dichotomous contingent valuation method in Seoul. Several covariate models based on Turnbull, Weibull and Spike models were developed and applied to WTP estimation with uncertainty analysis. WTP estimates for risk reduction of air pollution were 13,000 won, 12,000 won, and 10,000 won per month in low-bounded Turnbull, Weibull and Spike models, respectively. The estimates for indoor air pollution were 17,000 won,20,000 won and 21,000 won and these for drinking water contamination were 10,000 won, 13,000 won and 14,000 won in each model, respectively. Goodness of fit for Weibull model was better than those for other models. WTP estimates for indoor air pollution were higher than those for other pollution problems.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.379-385
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• 2005

The impact of the next influenza pandemic is difficult to predict. It is dependent on how virulent the virus is, how rapidly it spreads from population to population, and the effectiveness of prevention and response efforts. Despite the uncertainty about the magnitude of the next pandemic, estimates of the health and economic impact remain important to aid public health policy decisions and guide pandemic planning for health and emergency sectors. Planning ahead in preparation for an influenza pandemic, with its potentially very high morbidity and mortality rates, is essential for hospital administrators and public health officials. The estimat ion of pandemic impact is based on the previous pandemics- we had experienced at least 3 pandemics in 20th century. But the epidemiologi cal characteristics - ie, start season, the impact of 1st wave, pathogenicity and virulence of the viruses and the primary victims of population were quite different from one another. I reviewed methodology for estimation and modelling of pandemic impact and described some nations's results using them in their national preparedness plans. And then I showed the estimates of pandemic influenza impact in Korea with FluSurge and FluAid. And, I described the results of pandemic modelling with parameters of 1918 pandemic for the shake of education and training of the first-line responder health officials to the epidemics. In preparing influenza pandemics, the simulation and modelling are the keys to reduce the uncertainty of the future and to make proper policies to manage and control the pandemics.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• 제3권4호
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• pp.349-375
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• 2016

The tension of an arch bridge hanger is estimated using a number of experimentally identified modal frequencies. The hanger is connected through metallic plates to the bridge deck and arch. Two different categories of model classes are considered to simulate the vibrations of the hanger: an analytical model based on the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, and a high-fidelity finite element (FE) model. A Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection method is used to discriminate between models, select the best model, and estimate the hanger tension and its uncertainty. It is demonstrated that the end plate connections and boundary conditions of the hanger due to the flexibility of the deck/arch significantly affect the estimate of the axial load and its uncertainty. A fixed-end high fidelity FE model of the hanger underestimates the hanger tension by more than 20 compared to a baseline FE model with flexible supports. Simplified beam models can give fairly accurate results, close to the ones obtained from the high fidelity FE model with flexible support conditions, provided that the concept of equivalent length is introduced and/or end rotational springs are included to simulate the flexibility of the hanger ends. The effect of the number of experimentally identified modal frequencies on the estimates of the hanger tension and its uncertainty is investigated.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.355-362
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• 2002

There has been relatively a few studies that focused on evaluation of uncertainty for standard methods by which criteria pollutants are analyzed in ambient air. Especially, uncertainty evaluation has not been made yet for sampling and analysis of airborne NO$_2$. Ambient NO$_2$ has been thought to be a major criteria pollutant worldwide because of the potential of ozone formation as well as of its own toxicity. In this study, we tried to assess uncertainties associated with the every step of sampling and of analytical procedure of Griess-Saltzman method. Quality assurance (QA) and quality control (QC) were also emphasized with the uncertainty characterization. The use of Griess-Saltzman method for ambient NO$_2$ analysis showed very uniform daily concentration distribution with the mean of 10.8 ppb and the standard deviation of 1.08ppb during the sampling period. However, seven daily samples collected at the same sampling time and place exhibited highly different concentration distribution. Therefore, we evaluated uncertainties associated with sampling and analysis through the precise application of ISO Guide. Estimates of expanded uncertainties for a total of 62 samples fell in a relatively broad range of 5.17% to 11.85%. On the other hand. the expanded uncertainties were smaller for the high concentration range of greater than 15ppb.

• 재무관리연구
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.21-34
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• 1986

The purpose of this study is to analyse the risk and uncertainty involved in the capital budgeting which is executed in long periods and requires massive capital expenditure. Under risk and uncertainty conditions, the estimates in the capital budgeting are random variables rather than known constants. Two approaches have emerged in performing economic analysis that explicitly incorporate risk and uncertainty conditions in the analysis. One approach is to develop a descriptive model which describes the economic performance of an individual investment alternative. But no recomendation would be forthcoming from the model. Rather, the decision-maker would be furnished descriptive information concerning each alternative; the final choice among the alternatives would required a separate action. The second approach is to develop a normative model which includes an objective function to be maximized or minimized. The output from the model prescribes the course of action to be taken. Owing to the fact that the normative approach considers the fitness of criteria for decision-making its reasonableness looks better. But it is almost imposible that we correctly and easily derive the individuals' utility function. So within we recognize the limits of the descriptive methods, it is more practicle to analyse the investment alternatives by sensitivity analysis.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.185-201
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• 2020

예전부터 시나리오 인구추계(scenario population projection)는 미래 실현개연성이 높은 상황 반영과 통계적 음해석 용이성으로 각광을 받아왔다. 통계청 (2019)도 특별 시나리오를 포함한 30가지 조합 결과를 공식통계로 제시하고 있다. 하지만, 이런 결정론적(determinant) 인구추계는 미래의 불확실성(uncertainty)에 대해 제한적으로 정보를 제공하고, 시나리오 기반 예측치이므로 확률적이지 않으며, 시간에 따라 인구변동 3요소(출산, 사망, 이동)들의 완벽한 자기상관을 보이는 등 여러 한계점이 있다. 따라서 국제기구 UN, 독일 막스플랑크 인구연구소(MPIDR), 오스트리아 비엔나인구연구소(VID) 등은 확률론적(stochastic) 기반 인구추계를 제시하고 있다. 더불어 해외 일부 국가 통계청에서도 이 방식을 도입해 시나리오 결과와 함께 정보를 제공하고 있다. 본 논문은 우리나라의 인구추계를 확률론적 기반으로 산출한 후, 시나리오(결정론적) 인구추계 결과와 비교해 장·단점과 시사점을 도출해본다.