• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty modelling

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Map Building and Localization Based on Wave Algorithm and Kalman Filter

  • Saitov, Dilshat;Choi, Jeong Won;Park, Ju Hyun;Lee, Suk Gyu
    • IEMEK Journal of Embedded Systems and Applications
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.102-108
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    • 2008
  • This paper describes a mapping and localization based on wave algorithm[11] and Kalman filter for effective SLAM. Each robot in a multi robot system has its own task such as building a map for its local position. By combining their data into a shared map, the robot scans actively seek to verify their relative locations. For simultaneous localization the algorithm which is well known as Kalman Filter (KF) is used. For modelling the robot position we wish to know three parameters (x, y coordinates and its orientation) which can be combined into a vector called a state variable vector. The Kalman Filter is a smart way to integrate measurement data into an estimate by recognizing that measurements are noisy and that sometimes they should ignored or have only a small effect on the state estimate. In addition to an estimate of the state variable vector, the algorithm provides an estimate of the state variable vector uncertainty i.e. how confident the estimate is, given the value for the amount of error in it.

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Probability-based structural response of steel beams and frames with uncertain semi-rigid connections

  • Domenico, Dario De;Falsone, Giovanni;Laudani, Rossella
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.67 no.5
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    • pp.439-455
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    • 2018
  • Within a probabilistic framework, this paper addresses the determination of the static structural response of beams and frames with partially restrained (semi-rigid) connections. The flexibility of the nodal connections is incorporated via an idealized linear-elastic behavior of the beam constraints through the use of rotational springs, which are here considered uncertain for taking into account the largely scattered results observed in experimental findings. The analysis is conducted via the Probabilistic Transformation Method, by modelling the spring stiffness terms (or equivalently, the fixity factors of the beam) as uniformly distributed random variables. The limit values of the Eurocode 3 fixity factors for steel semi-rigid connections are assumed. The exact probability density function of a few indicators of the structural response is derived and discussed in order to identify to what extent the uncertainty of the beam constraints affects the resulting beam response. Some design considerations arise which point out the paramount importance of probability-based approaches whenever a comprehensive experimental background regarding the stiffness of the beam connection is lacking, for example in steel frames with semi-rigid connections or in precast reinforced concrete framed structures. Indeed, it is demonstrated that resorting to deterministic approaches may lead to misleading (and in some cases non-conservative) outcomes from a design viewpoint.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment for High Level Nuclear Waste Repository System

  • Kim, Taw-Woon;Woo, Kab-Koo;Lee, Kun-Jai
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.53-72
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    • 1991
  • An integrated model is developed in this paper for the performance assessment of high level radioactive waste repository. This integrated model consists of two simple mathematical models. One is a multiple-barrier failure model of the repository system based on constant failure rates which provides source terms to biosphere. The other is a biosphere model which has multiple pathways for radionuclides to reach to human. For the parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the risk assessment of high level radioactive waste repository, Latin hypercube sampling and rank correlation techniques are applied to this model. The former is cost-effective for large computer programs because it gives smaller error in estimating output distribution even with smaller number of runs compared to crude Monte Carlo technique. The latter is good for generating dependence structure among samples of input parameters. It is also used to find out the most sensitive, or important, parameter groups among given input parameters. The methodology of the mathematical modelling with statistical analysis will provide useful insights to the decision-making of radioactive waste repository selection and future researches related to uncertain and sensitive input parameters.

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A Computerized Construction Cost Estimating Method based on the Actual Cost Data (실적 공사비에 의한 예정공사비 산정 전산화 방안)

  • Chun Jae-Youl;Cho Jae-ho;Park Sang-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.2 no.2 s.6
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2001
  • The paper considers non-deterministic methods of analysing the risk exposure in a cost estimate. The method(referred to as the 'Monte Carlo simulation' method) interprets cost data indirectly, to generate a probability distribution for total costs from the deficient elemental experience cost distribution. The Monte Carlo method is popular method for incorporating uncertainty relative to parameter values in risk assessment modelling. Non-deterministic methods, they are here presented as possibly effective foundation on which to risk management in cost estimating. The objectives of this research is to develop a computerized algorithms to forecast the probabilistic total construction cost and the elemental work cost at the planning stage.

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A Technique to Efficiently Place Sensors for Three-Dimensional Robotic Manipulation : For the Case of Stereo Cameras (로봇의 3차원 작업을 위한 효율적 센서위치의 결정기법 : 스테레오 카메라를 중심으로)

  • Do, Yong-Tae
    • Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.80-88
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    • 1999
  • This paper deals with the position determination problem of stereo camera systems used as a sensor for 3D robotic manipulation. Stereo cameras having parallel rays of sight and been set up on the same baseline are assumed. The distance between the sensor and the space measured is determined so as to get insensitive parameters to the uncertainty of control points used for calibration and to satisfy the error condition set by considering the repeatability of the robot. The baseline width is determined by minimizing the mutual effect of 3D positional error and stereo image coordinate error. Unlike existing techniques, the technique proposed here is developed without complicated constraints and modelling process of the object to be observed. Thus, the technique of this paper is more general and its effectiveness is proved by simulation.

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Threshold Modelling of Spatial Extremes - Summer Rainfall of Korea (공간 극단값의 분계점 모형 사례 연구 - 한국 여름철 강수량)

  • Hwang, Seungyong;Choi, Hyemi
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.655-665
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    • 2014
  • An adequate understanding and response to natural hazards such as heat wave, heavy rainfall and severe drought is required. We apply extreme value theory to analyze these abnormal weather phenomena. It is common for extremes in climatic data to be nonstationary in space and time. In this paper, we analyze summer rainfall data in South Korea using exceedance values over thresholds estimated by quantile regression with location information and time as covariates. We group weather stations in South Korea into 5 clusters and t extreme value models to threshold exceedances for each cluster under the assumption of independence in space and time as well as estimates of uncertainty for spatial dependence as proposed in Northrop and Jonathan (2011).

A Study on Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation of Power System Considering Solar Cell Generators (태양광발전원(太陽光發電原)을 고려한 전력계통(電力系統)의 확률논적(確率論的)인 신뢰도(信賴度) 평가(評價)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Jeong-Je;Liang, Wu;Choi, Jae-Seok;Cha, Jun-Min
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.486-495
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    • 2009
  • This paper proposes a new methodology on reliability evaluation of a power system including solar cell generators (SCG). The SCGs using renewable energy resource such as solar radiation(SR) should be modeled as multi-state operational model because the uncertainty of the resource supply may occur an effect as same as the forced outage of generator in viewpoint of adequacy reliability of system. While a two-state model is well suited for modeling conventional generators, a multi-state model is needed to model the SCGs due to the random variation of solar radiation. This makes the method of calculating reliability evaluation indices of the SCG different from the conventional generator. After identifying the typical pattern of the SR probability distribution function(pdf) from SR actual data, this paper describes modelling, methodology and details process for reliability evaluation of the solar cell generators integrated with power system. Two test results indicate the viability of the proposed method.

In-plane response of masonry infilled RC framed structures: A probabilistic macromodeling approach

  • De Domenico, Dario;Falsone, Giovanni;Laudani, Rossella
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.68 no.4
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    • pp.423-442
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frames are analyzed through a probabilistic approach. A macro-modeling technique, based on an equivalent diagonal pin-jointed strut, has been resorted to for modelling the stiffening contribution of the masonry panels. Since it is quite difficult to decide which mechanical characteristics to assume for the diagonal struts in such simplified model, the strut width is here considered as a random variable, whose stochastic characterization stems from a wide set of empirical expressions proposed in the literature. The stochastic analysis of the masonry infilled RC frame is conducted via the Probabilistic Transformation Method by employing a set of space transformation laws of random vectors to determine the probability density function (PDF) of the system response in a direct manner. The knowledge of the PDF of a set of response indicators, including displacements, bending moments, shear forces, interstory drifts, opens an interesting discussion about the influence of the uncertainty of the masonry infills and the resulting implications in a design process.

Significance of seabed interaction on fatigue assessment of steel catenary risers in the touchdown zone

  • Elosta, Hany;Huang, Shan;Incecik, Atilla
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.403-423
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    • 2016
  • The challenges involved with fatigue damage assessment of steel catenary riser (SCR) in the touchdown zone (TDZ) are primarily due to the non-linear behaviour of the SCR-seabed interaction, considerable uncertainty in SCR-seabed interaction modelling and geotechnical parameters. The issue of fatigue damage induced by the cyclic movements of the SCR with the seabed has acquired prominence with the touch down point (TDP) interaction in the TDZ. Therefore, the SCR-seabed response is critical for reliable estimation of fatigue life in the TDZ. Various design approaches pertaining to the lateral pipe-soil resistance model are discussed. These techniques have been applied in the finite element model that can be used to analyse the lateral SCR-seabed interaction under hydrodynamic loading. This study investigates the sensitivity of fatigue performance to geotechnical parameters through a parametric study. In this study, global analyses are performed to assess the influence of vertical linear seabed springs, the lateral seabed model and the non-linear seabed model, including trench evolution into seabed, seabed normalised stiffness, re-penetration offset parameter and soil suction resistance ratio, on the fatigue life of SCRs in the TDZ.

International Research on Geotechnical Risk & Landslide Hazards (지반공학적 재해 및 산사태 위험도 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Gil-Lim;Yoon, Yeo-Won;Kim, Hong-Yeon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2009.03a
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    • pp.444-455
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    • 2009
  • Great concerns on geotechnical risk & hazard assessment have been increased due to human and economic damage by natural disasters with recent global climate changes. In this paper, geotechnical problems in particular, landslides which is interested in European countries and North America, were mainly discussed. For these, 18 key topics on geotechnical risk and hazards which had been discussed at the LARAM 2008 workshop in Italy were analyzed after grouping by subjects. Main topic contents consisted of applications such as field measurement, early warning systems, uncertainty analysis of parameters using radar, optical data and statistical theory and so on. And the problems related to analysis of vulnerability and deformation due to earthquakes, investigation of gas zone using seismic reflection data in a landslide area, risk quantification and hazard assessment of landslide movements and multi-dimensional analysis for stability of complex slopes were attracted. Also, there were studies on risk matters of cultural heritage, the blockglide of clayey ground, simulations of debris flows based on GIS, quantification of the failure processes of rock slopes, a meshless method for 3D crack modelling, and finally risk assessment for cryological processes due to global warming.

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