• Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.33-66
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• 2007

In the post-catchup era, the probability of technology risk are growing according to technology innovation activities with high uncertainty are increasing. Risk acceptance and management are appearing as a more important policy issue. This paper examines the technology risk as a political and social sight and the character of technological risk in the post-catchup era. In the post-catchup, new technology and policy are more undergone trial and err. In particular, we need new approach and policy countermeasures to cope with risky environment and overcome catchup legacy. Accordingly, Korea risk management is needed reshaping of risk management system, increment of risk communication, risk management according to technology type, precautionary approach, bounded trial and err strategy, knowledge accumulation and learning reinforcement.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.67-76
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• 2022

Power generation construction projects involving large amounts of capital can affect the survival of a company along with huge economic losses in the event of a business failure. In general, private companies are organizations with challenging risk taking tendencies while public companies have a risk averse tendency to avoid risk, so these differences in organizational tendencies make it difficult to respond to risk. In particular, public companies are more likely to fail than private companies because they choose the contradiction of risk picking to enter overseas markets with high uncertainty despite their tendency to risk averse due to the nature of the organization. Therefore, these organizations need risk management techniques that reflect a risk-averse strategy. Accordingly, this paper analyzes the risk management research papers of the existing overseas development EPC business in order to find the risk management techniques related to the organizational tendencies of public companies and proposes "establishing a performance audit system for risk management of the organizational tendencies of public companies" as a way to extract the risk factors through the examples of overseas development projects of public companies and to manage the organizational tendencies of public companies that affect them.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.13-22
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• 2007

The uncertainty in water quality model predictions is inevitably high due to natural stochasticity, model uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty. An integrated modeling system under uncertainty was described and demonstrated for use in watershed management and receiving-water quality prediction. A watershed model (HSPF), a receiving water quality model (WASP), and a wetland model (NPS-WET) were incorporated into an integrated modeling system (modified-BASINS) and applied to the Hwaseong Reservoir watershed. Reservoir water quality was predicted using the calibrated integrated modeling system, and the deterministic integrated modeling output was useful for estimating mean water quality given future watershed conditions and assessing the spatial distribution of pollutant loads. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to investigate the effect of various uncertainties on output prediction. Without pollution control measures in the watershed, the concentrations of total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorous (T-P) in the Hwaseong Reservoir, considering uncertainty, would be less than about 4.8 and 0.26 mg 4.8 and 0.26 mg $L^{-1}$, respectively, with 95% confidence. The effects of two watershed management practices, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and a constructed wetland (WETLAND), were evaluated. The combined scenario (WWTP + WETLAND) was the most effective at improving reservoir water quality, bringing concentrations of T-N and T-P in the Hwaseong Reservoir to less than 3.54 and 0.15 mg ${L^{-1}$, 26.7 and 42.9% improvements, respectively, with 95% confidence. Overall, the Monte Carlo simulation in the integrated modeling system was practical for estimating uncertainty and reliable in water quality prediction. The approach described here may allow decisions to be made based on probability and level of risk, and its application is recommended.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.277-288
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• 2017

A probabilistic risk analysis of levee system estimates the overall level of flood risk associated with the levee system, according to a series of possible flood scenarios. It requires the uncertainty analysis of all the risk components, including hydrological, hydraulic and geotechnical parts computed by employing MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo), MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) and FOSM (First-Order Second Moment), presents a joint probability combined each probability. The methodology was applied to a 12.5 km reach from upstream to downstream of the Gangjeong-Goryeong weir, including 6 levee reaches, in Nakdong river. Overtopping risks were estimated by computing flood stage corresponding to 100/200 year high quantile (97.5%) design flood causing levee overflow. Geotechnical risks were evaluated by considering seepage, slope stability, and rapid drawdown along the levee reach without overflow. A probability-based compound risk will contribute to rising effect of safety and economic aspects for levee design, then expect to use the index for riverside structure design in the future.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.339-351
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• 2013

In this research, we analyzed the influence factors and introducing outcomes empirically. The influencing factors over IT Outsourcing set up organizational factors(maturity of information system, the support of CEO), dealing factors(asset speciality, uncertainty, degree of using of information system), and risk factors(risk of safety/security. cost increase, loss of autonomy). The result of this study are as follows. In the organizational factors, degree of a maturity of the information system and the support of CEO were analyzed as the variables affecting the introducing outcomes positively. In the dealing factors, however, the degree of using information system was only analyzed as the variables affecting the introducing outcomes positively, while the speciality of asset and the uncertainty factors were analyzed as the variables not affecting the introducing outcomes. In the risk factors, the risk of safety/security and the increase of cost were only analyzed as the variables affecting the introducing outcomes positively, therefore loss of autonomy, was not analyzed as the affecting variables.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.74-91
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• 2023

This study provides an in-depth comparison and analysis of various risk assessment models widely used in modern industries, and proposes the most suitable model for risk assessment of offshore wind power in Korea. The assessment models were selected by considering various factors such as the purpose of risk assessment, stakeholder requirements, and characteristics of offshore wind power. We also emphasized the importance of using different risk assessment models in combination in situations of high uncertainty. To systematize the combination of risk assessment models, we used systems engineering which is effective to develop a new system. Systems engineering was used to define the complete, traceable functions from site requirements, and model-based systems engineering was used to manage the design information from requirements to detailed functions in a single model. The developed risk assessment module provide automatic conversion between risk assessment models to enable risk assessment suitable for offshore wind power. The functionality and usability of the offshore wind risk assessment module were verified by the evaluation of three wind power experts.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.19-29
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• 2011

The uncertainty of a project generates risks hindering the goal achievement of the project, and the risks affect the success or failure of the project significantly. Risk management, a part of the project management, includes various processes, and there are also various tools or techniques applicable to that. In an organization, the application of project management develops gradually from low to high maturity, and the organization should choose and implement a method of application proper for the level of its maturity. This article suggests a method to reduce inefficiency of the management and how to apply risk management by levels of maturity for easier application. For this, the stages of project management maturity levels were divided into the introduction, development, and maturity step, and methods of risk management suitable for each stage were applied. And methods of risk management that need to be applied by the levels of project maturity are divided into three factors : risk management processes, risk management tools and techniques, and risk management standards and templates. It is expected to be favorable approaches for the application of risk management in an organization to divide those factors into more concrete processes, tools, techniques, and standards and apply them by the levels of management maturity.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.364-374
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• 2024

Today, risks created by uncertainty must be managed for successful project execution. From this perspective, applying a risk management process is very important for successful defense systems test works. This paper describes 'the implentation of risk management process for test work' carried out by DTERI's process improvement activities. In this study, the concept of risk management process, and details of the risk management process are examined through PMBOK and ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288, CMMI. After that, we defined 'Standard Process for Risk Management' of defence systems test works. And, we describe 'Risk Management Function' of DTERI's Project Management System(PMS) and the risk management process of DTERI. Finally, the effectiveness of the risk management standard process is verified through quantitative analysis.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.195-200
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• 2021

In recent years, Vietnam's economic growth rate has been attributed to the growth of many well-managed industries within Southeast Asia. Among them is the civil construction industry. Construction projects typically take a long time to complete and require a huge budget. Many socio-economic variables and factors affect total construction project costs due to market fluctuations. In recent years, crucial socioeconomic development indicators of construction reached a fairly high growth rate. Also, most infrastructure and construction projects have a high degree of complexity and uncertainty. This makes it challenging to predict the accurate project price. These challenges raise the need to recognize significant factors that influence the construction price index of civil buildings in Vietnam, both micro and macro. Therefore, this paper presents critical factors that affect the construction price index using the fuzzy extent analysis process in an uncertain environment. This proposed quantitative model is expected to reflect the uncertainty in the process of evaluating and ranking the influencing factors of the construction price index in Vietnam. The research results would also allow project stakeholders to be more informed of the factors affecting the construction price index in the context of Vietnam's civil construction industry. They also enable construction contractors to estimate project costs and bid rates better, enhancing their project and risk management performance.

• Journal of the Korean Magnetic Resonance Society
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.53-58
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• 2020

Free radicals including reactive oxygen species (ROS) are important chemicals in the research area of biology, pharmaceutical, medical, and environmental science as well as human health risk assessment as they are highly involved in diverse metabolism and toxicity mechanisms through chemical reactions with various components of living bodies. Electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy is a powerful tool for detecting and quantifying those radicals in biological environments. In this work we observed the ESR signal of 2,2,6,6-Tetra-methyl piperidine 1-oxyl (TEMPO) in aqueous solution at various concentrations to estimate the uncertainty factors arising from the experimental conditions and signal treatment methods. As the sample position highly influences the signal intensity, dual ESR tube geometry (consists of a detachable sample tube and a position fixed external tube) was adopted. This type of measurement geometry allowed to get the relative uncertainty of signal intensity lower than 1% when triple measurements are averaged. Linear dependence of signal intensity on the TEMPO concentration, which is required for the quantification of unknown sample, could be obtained over a concentration range of ~10³ by optimizing the signal treatment method depending on the concentration range.