• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Process

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A preliminary Study on Process Improvement for BIM based Condensation Performance Evaluation of Apartment Housings (BIM기반 공동주택 결로 성능평가를 위한 프로세스 개선방안에 관한 기초연구)

  • Hong, Jooyoung;Kim, Daegil;Lee, Myungdo;Kim, Daewon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.245-246
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    • 2016
  • The condensation performance evaluation is required for improved living environment of apartment housings. In the current condensation performance evaluation process, high demand of manual works and repetitive process cause unexpected risks due to uncertainty and inefficiency by applying 2D CAD drawings in simulation tool. Furthermore, the evaluation requires taking in action responding to the expanding use of BIM. In this study, the analysis of current evaluation process and required functions for the process improvement based on BIM modeling were deducted from interviews with experts. It is expected that the results of this study can be employed to develop of process automation module for condensation simulation evaluation.

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Data Fusion Algorithm based on Inference for Anomaly Detection in the Next-Generation Intrusion Detection (차세대 침입탐지에서 이상탐지를 위한 추론 기반 데이터 융합 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Dong-Wook;Han, Myung-Mook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.233-238
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we propose the algorithms of processing the uncertainty data using data fusion for the next generation intrusion detection. In the next generation intrusion detection, a lot of data are collected by many of network sensors to discover knowledge from generating information in cyber space. It is necessary the data fusion process to extract knowledge from collected sensors data. In this paper, we have proposed method to represent the uncertainty data, by classifying where is a confidence interval in interval of uncertainty data through feature analysis of different data using inference method with Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory. In this paper, we have implemented a detection experiment that is classified by the confidence interval using IRIS plant Data Set for anomaly detection of uncertainty data. As a result, we found that it is possible to classify data by confidence interval.

Spatial prioritization of climate change vulnerability using uncertainty analysis of multi-criteria decision making method (다기준 의사결정기법의 불확실성 분석기법을 이용한 기후변화 취약성에 대한 지역별 우선순위 결정)

  • Song, Jae Yeol;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2017
  • In this study, robustness index and uncertainty analysis were proposed to quantify the risk inherent in the process of climate change vulnerability assessment. The water supply vulnerability for six metropolitan cities (Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, and Ulsan), except for Seoul, were prioritized using TOPSIS, a kind of multi-criteria decision making method. The robustness index was used to analyze the possibility of rank reversal and the uncertainty analysis was introduced to derive the minimum changed weights of the criteria that determine the rank reversal between any paired cities. As a result, Incheon and Daegu were found to be very vulnerable and Daegu and Busan were derived to be very sensitive. Although Daegu was relatively vulnerable against the other cities, it can be largely improved by developing and performing various climate change adaptation measures because it is more sensitive. This study can be used as a preliminary assessment for establishing and planning climate change adaptation measure.

Rethinking of the Uncertainty: A Fault-Tolerant Target-Tracking Strategy Based on Unreliable Sensing in Wireless Sensor Networks

  • Xie, Yi;Tang, Guoming;Wang, Daifei;Xiao, Weidong;Tang, Daquan;Tang, Jiuyang
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.6 no.6
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    • pp.1496-1521
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    • 2012
  • Uncertainty is ubiquitous in target tracking wireless sensor networks due to environmental noise, randomness of target mobility and other factors. Sensing results are always unreliable. This paper considers unreliability as it occurs in wireless sensor networks and its impact on target-tracking accuracy. Firstly, we map intersection pairwise sensors' uncertain boundaries, which divides the monitor area into faces. Each face has a unique signature vector. For each target localization, a sampling vector is built after multiple grouping samplings determine whether the RSS (Received Signal Strength) for a pairwise nodes' is ordinal or flipped. A Fault-Tolerant Target-Tracking (FTTT) strategy is proposed, which transforms the tracking problem into a vector matching process that increases the tracking flexibility and accuracy while reducing the influence of in-the-filed factors. In addition, a heuristic matching algorithm is introduced to reduce the computational complexity. The fault tolerance of FTTT is also discussed. An extension of FTTT is then proposed by quantifying the pairwise uncertainty to further enhance robustness. Results show FTTT is more flexible, more robust and more accurate than parallel approaches.

Local Uncertainty of the Depth to Weathered Soil at Incheon Songdo New City (인천송도신도시 풍화토층 출현심도의 국부적 불확실성)

  • Kim, Dong-Hee;Ko, Sung-Kwon;Lee, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.28 no.11
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 2012
  • Since geologic data are often sampled at sparse locations, it is important not only to predict attribute values at unsampled locations, but also to assess the uncertainty attached to the prediction. In this paper, the assessment of the local uncertainty of prediction for the depth to weathered soil was performed by using the indicator kriging. A conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) was first modeled, and then E-type estimate was computed for the spatial distribution of the depth to the weathered soil. Also, optimal estimate of spatial distribution for the depth to weathered soil was determined by using ccdf and loss function. The design procedure and method considering the minimum expected loss presented in this paper can be used in the decision-making process for geotechnical engineering design.

Family Surrogates' Decision Regret and Psychological Stress about End-of-Life Cancer Treatments: Path Analysis (말기 암환자 가족의 대리적 연명의료 결정에 대한 치료결정 후회 및 심리적 스트레스: 경로모형 분석)

  • Kim, Su Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.578-587
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study aimed to understand the mechanisms of decision regret and stress of family surrogates' end-of-life decision making using an exploratory path model. In particular, the research identified the direct effects of perceptions of uncertainty and effective decisions on decision regret and stress, and examined the indirect effects of being informed, having clear values, and being supported for decision regret and the stress of end-of-life decision making through the mediating variables of perceptions of uncertainty and effective decisions. Methods: Data were collected from 102 family surrogates who had participated in end-of-life decision making for patients with terminal cancer in a tertiary hospital. Results: Perception of effective decisions was a significant direct predictor of decision regret, and uncertainty was a significant predictor of stress among the participants. Being informed, having clear values, and being supported had a significant indirect influence on decision regret through the perception of effective decisions among family surrogates. However, only having clear values had a significant indirect influence on stress through the perception of uncertainty. The model explained 63.0% of decision regret and 20.0% of stress among the participants and showed a good fit with the data, ${\chi}^2=12.40$ (df=8, p=.134), TLI=.97, and RMSEA=.07. Conclusion: Nurses can support family surrogates in end-of-life decision-making processes to decrease their decision regret by providing information about end-of-life care choices, clarifying personal values, and supporting the decision-making process, and to relieve their stress by facilitating the clarification of personal values.

An Extended Model Evaluation Method using Multiple Assessment Indices (MAIs) under Uncertainty in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling (강우-유출 모델링의 불확실성 고려한 다중 평가지수에 의한 확장형 모형평가 방법)

  • Lee, Gi-Ha;Jung, Kwan-Sue;Tachikawa, Yasuto
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.591-595
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    • 2010
  • Conventional methods of model evaluation usually rely only on model performance based on a comparison of simulated variables to corresponding observations. However, this type of model evaluation has been criticized because of its insufficient consideration of the various uncertainty sources involved in modeling processes. This study aims to propose an extended model evaluation method using multiple assesment indices (MAIs) that consider not only the model performance but also the model structure and parameter uncertainties in rainfall-runoff modeling. A simple reservoir model (SFM) and distributed kinematic wave models (KWMSS1 and KWMSS2 using topography from 250m, 500m, and 1km digital elevation models) were developed and assessed by three MAIs for model performance, model structural stability, and parameter identifiability. All the models provided acceptable performance in terms of a global response, but the simpler SFM and KWMSS1 could not accurately represent the local behaviors of hydrographs. In addition, SFM and KWMSS1 were structurally unstable; their performance was sensitive to the applied objective functions. On the other hand, the most sophisticated model, KWMSS2, performed well, satisfying both global and local behaviors. KMSS2 also showed good structural stability, reproducing hydrographs regardless of the applied objective functions; however, superior parameter identifiability was not guaranteed. Numerous parameter sets could lead to indistinguishable hydrographs. This result supports that while making a model complex increases its performance accuracy and reduces its structural uncertainty, the model is likely to suffer from parameter uncertainty. The proposed model evaluation process can provide an effective guideline for identifying a reliable hydrologic model.

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The Effect of Emotional Certainty on Attitudes in Advertising

  • Bok, Sang Yong;Min, Dongwon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.57-75
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    • 2013
  • It is a well-established theory that emotion is influential in cognitive processing. Extensive prior research on emotion has shown that emotional factors, such as affect, mood, and feeling, play as information indicating whether he or she has enough knowledge. Most of their findings focused on the effect of emotional valence (i.g., one's subjective positivity or negativity related with the emotion). Recently, several studies on emotion suggest that there is another dimension of emotion, which affects the type of cognitive processing. The studies argue that emotional certainty facilitates heuristic processing, whereas emotional uncertainty promotes systematic processing. Based on the findings, current study examines the effect of certainty on attitudes and recall. Specifically, the authors investigate the effect of certainty on how much effort individuals use to process advertising information and how certainty affects attitude formation toward the advertised product. The authors also focus on recall to clarify the working mechanism of certainty on attitudes, because recall performance reflects the depth of information processing. Based on previous findings, the authors hypothesize that uncertainty (vs. certainty) leads to more favorable attitudes as well as better recall, and conduct an experiment using a fictitious advertisement with 218 participants. The results confirm the predicted effects of certainty only on attitudes not recall. A possible explanation of this discrepancy between attitudes and recall lies in the measurement method, unaided recall. To rule out this possibility, the authors perform an additional analysis with the participants who recall any correct information of the target advertisement. The results show certainty has a negative effect on both attitudes and recall. A bootstrapping test reveals that recall mediates the effect of certainty on attitudes. This result confirms that certainty decreases elaboration, which in turn leads to less favorable attitudes relative to uncertainty. Additionally, our data shows the association among certainty, recall, and attitudes by showing the indirect effect of certainty on attitudes via recall. This research encourages practitioners in the field to emphasize that they should focus on target audiences' emotional certainty before they provide the persuasive message, by showing that uncertainty promotes effortful processing, which in turn leads to better memory and more favorable attitudes.

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Stability Condition for Discrete Interval System with Unstructured Uncertainty and Time-Varying Delay Time (비구조화된 불확실성과 시변 지연 시간을 갖는 이산 구간 시스템의 안정조건)

  • Hyung-seok Han
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.551-556
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we deal with the stability condition of linear interval discrete systems with time-varying delays and unstructured uncertainty. For the interval discrete system which has interval matrix as its system matrices, time-varying delay time within some interval value and unstructured uncertainty which can include non-linearity and be expressed by only its magnitude, the stability condition is proposed. Compared with the previous result derived by using a upper bound solution of the Lyapunov equation, the new results are derived by the form of simple inequality based on Lyapunov stability condition and have the advantage of being more effective in stability application. Furthermore, the proposed stable conditions are very comprehensive and powerful, including the previously published stable conditions of various linear discrete systems. The superiority of the new condition is proven in the derivation process, and the utility and superiority of the proposed condition are examined through numerical example.

Calculation and Uncertainty Estimation of the Volume of Reverberation Chamber with Indeterminate Form (부정형 잔향실의 체적 산출과 체적 불착도 평가)

  • Suh, Jae-Gap;Suh, Sang-Joon
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.8
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    • pp.375-380
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    • 2007
  • A reverberation chamber should be designed and constructed so as to satisfy its purposes and available space. However, it is somewhat difficult to meet the intended design requirements due to various errors from construction process. So, the post-construction measurement of its volume and surface areas is very essential to check the actual volume and volume uncertainty of a reverberation chamber These values should be carefully calculated and accurately estimated since they are used not only to evaluate the acoustic characteristics of building materials but also to calculate uncertainties for other acoustic characteristics. In this work, the method for the calculation and uncertainty estimation of the volume of a reverberation chamber is presented. To this end, the coordinates of all corners was measured with Total Station after construction. The results showed that the calculated volume of the measured reverberation chamber differs by 5 % from the design specification. The expanded volume uncertainty was also estimated to be about 2 % of the total calculated volume.