• 제목/요약/키워드: Uncertainty Modeling

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MLP 기반의 서울시 3차원 지반공간모델링 연구 (MLP-based 3D Geotechnical Layer Mapping Using Borehole Database in Seoul, South Korea)

  • 지윤수;김한샘;이문교;조형익;선창국
    • 한국지반공학회논문집
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    • 제37권5호
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    • pp.47-63
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    • 2021
  • 최근 디지털 트윈 관점의 3차원 지하공간 지도의 수요 및 유관분야의 연계 활용 요구가 증대되고 있다. 그러나 전국단위의 지반조사 자료의 방대함과 이를 활용함에 있어 공간적/추계학적 기법 적용의 불확실성으로 인해 신뢰도 높은 지역적 지반특성화 연구와 그에 따른 최적화 모델 제시에 어려움이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 서울지역 3차원 지하공간의 공학적 지층분류를 위해 다층 퍼셉트론(MLP) 기반의 최적 학습모델을 구축하였다. 먼저, 서울지역에 분포하는 시추공별 층상구조 및 3차원 공간좌표를 표준화 서식에 따라 지반정보 데이터베이스로 구축하고 기계학습을 위한 결측치 보정, 정규화 등의 데이터 전처리를 하였다. MLP 모델의 파라미터 최적화와 정밀도 및 정확도 관련 모델 성능 평가를 통해 최적의 피팅 모델을 설계하였다. 이후 3차원 지반 공간레이어 구축을 위한 수치표고모델 기반 격자망을 구성하고, 단위격자별 MLP기반 예측모델 적용을 통한 층상구조를 결정하고 이를 가시화하였다. 구축된 3차원 지반모델은 범용적인 지구통계학적 공간보간 기법의 적용 결과 및 지질도의 표토층 성상과 비교하여 그 성능을 평가하였다.

부산항 항만안전 주요 이슈 동향에 관한 연구 (A Study on Trends of Key Issues in Port Safety at Busan Port)

  • 이정민;하도연;김주혜
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제48권1호
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    • pp.34-48
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    • 2024
  • 글로벌 공급망에 예측 불가능한 위험성이 확산되면서 세계의존도가 높은 항만물류산업의 위험부담이 높아지고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기초적인 연구로 국내 항만의 안전성에 위험을 주는 다양한 이슈들을 알아보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 부산항의 항만안전과 관련된 뉴스 기사 데이터를 활용하여 LDA토픽모델링 분석과 시계열 선형회귀분석을 진행하였고 부산항 항만안전 주요 이슈들의 변화와 그 동향을 파악하였다. 본 연구의 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 지난 30년동안 부산항 항만안전과 관련된 주요 이슈는 총 9개이며 이들을 5년 주기의 시기별로 살펴본 결과, 지난 30년 동안 해상안전 이슈, 수입화물 검역 안전 이슈, 노조파업 관련 이슈, 자연재해 관련 이슈가 지속해서 등장했다. 부산항 항만안전 주요 이슈는 주로 예측 불가능한 성격이 큰 사회환경적 유형과 자연현상적 유형으로 글로벌 불확실성의 영향을 많이 받고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 분석 결과로 도출된 항만안전 주요 이슈들을 위주로 부산항 항만안전 강화를 위한 정책을 체계적으로 수립할 필요가 있으며 예측 불가능한 위험상황을 대비한 부산항 항만안전 회복탄력성을 강화할 필요가 있다. 끝으로 다양하게 변화하는 사회적 여건에 맞춰 항만안전 강화를 도모할 수 있는 선진적인 연구 활동이 필요할 것이다.

현대패션디자인에 나타난 동양의 미의식 연구 (A Study about the Aesthetics of Oriental in Modern Fashion design)

  • 임영자
    • 복식
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    • 제30권
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    • pp.261-274
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    • 1996
  • In the present age dominate by both cer-taingty of 1% and uncertainty of 99% 'Fuzzy thinking' of Bart Kosko that is the way to solve the problems by the scientific way through a worldview of Buddhism or Taoism greatly prevails around the world over 'Lateral greatly prevails around the world over 'Lateral thinking' and the authenticity or the right and-wrong of the uncertainty which is the thinking way to find the answer of the problems of illogical way of Edward de Beno against the western vertical thinking were Concurrently fashion designers over the world also adopt the oriental elements. But there exist differences of thoughts between the orient and the occident. And they have dif-ferent thinking way of aestheticism and references of the value on the beauty. Not only beauty but the view through the mind as intuitional thought in which not only the rec-ognition of sense but also the rationalism and the naturalness play key role. The aesthetic sense in the orient contains both the truth and virtue. 2) The beauty of the mean It's from the thought of neutralization of Confucius. The mean or moderation state which in harmony with ethical virtue and aes-thetic beauty is the ideal and is the ultimate. Therefore the thought of Confucian is the creativity in which the balance and the har-mony is most important. Fashion design is also one of the representation of the mean because the spirit of the designer is harmonized for-mlessly with the object of the model of the fashion design. 2) The beauty of skillfulness It indicates the Taoism of Lao-tzu and Chuangtzu. It takes a super-artistic declar-ation that human can feel and recognize the color of colorlessness the sound of sound-lessness and the taste of tastelessness. The thought of arts affected by Taoism is 'ad-vanced age' called the beauty of skillfulness. The view of arts of lao-tzu takes the beauty of cosmos and the nature as a standard. Es-pecially the beauty of inactivity is recognized by the linkage between the beauty and the ugliness. And these things appear in fashion design as a design element such as humor or exaggeration. 3) The beauty of non-dualism It is thought of Buddhism that all evil passions of worry occur form the opposition in dualism. Finally this thought leads to that everything is consistent and truth is only one from the point of view that virtue and vice has on linkage that is 'no virtues no vices' and 'one with two, two, with one, one is not two' A big tendency like this became the root forma-tion of the thought of the oriental arts. 3. Characteristics of the oriental aesthetic sense on the present fashion design 1) The formation of the fashion design on the oriental elements In the picture-incantation which was a representation of an era when the thought of 'cosmic dual forces' dominated the basic polygons of 'a circle square triangle' means both 'one two three' and 'the negative positive mean' of cosmic elements. From this point of view the was of planner cutting in the Orient is dif-ferent from that of the Occidental which is in three-dimensional. The planner polygon type of the cut-pieces comes to have the meaning of the three-dimension when they consist of a suit that has the combination of each cut-piece. This shows the consistency with the principle of cosmos creation of Taoism that one is two two is three and three is every-thing. 2) The coloring and the symbolic represen-tation of the fashion design on the orien-tal elements The sense on the colors in the Orient from the thought of 'the cosmic dual forces and the five elements' is not the experi-enced from the knowledge but contains the consideration of philosophy Five-primary-color representing compass directions Blue(East) Red(South) Yellow(Center) White (West) and Black (North) is called ' the posi-tive' for this five-primary-color secondary-color which comes from the compound of the primary colors is called 'the negative' The thought of 'the cosmic dual forces and the five elements' is also an theory containing the natural order of the cos-mos and this shows the perceptional differ-ence that they are not conceptual but to be recognized and fell directly. A thought of Buddhism which is 'Colors are colorlessness and Clolorlessness are color's proves that. 3) The pattern and symbolic representation of the fashion design on the oriental elements The pattern as a visual style is a figure of symbolic representation which adopt the mental and physical world of human and are the compo-sition of artistic revelation of the human nature and the religous thought of incantation. Es-pecially the symbolic representation of the oriental thought of Confusion. Buddhism and Taoism There are patterns such as plants aminals the oriental four gods and geometry. From the above it's the time toward the 21'th century when the world is constructing one global area and one historical zone. And the exotic mood of the Orient represented in the fashion which doesn't make the common feeling in general does not cease to develop only to express the visual modeling but also adopts the thought religion and the art which are the root of the Orientail and contains inherent willing of modeling.

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SWAT모형에서 공간 입력자료의 다양한 해상도에 따른 수문-수질 모의결과의 비교분석 (Comparative Analysis of SWAT Generated Streamflow and Stream Water Quality Using Different Spatial Resolution Data)

  • 박종윤;이미선;박근애;김성준
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제41권11호
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    • pp.1079-1094
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구는 농촌소유역(1.21 $km^2$)에서 다양한 공간입력자료의 해상도가 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형의 수문-수질 모의결과에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 Case A(2 m DEM, QucikBird 토지이용도, 1/25,000 토양도), Case B(10 m DEM, 1/25,000 토지이용도, 1/25,000 토양도), Case C(30 m DEM, Landsat 토지이용도, 1/25,000 토양도)에 해당하는 해상도별 공간입력자료를 구축하였다. 모형의 적용성 평가는 경안천유역(255.44 $km^2$) 출구점에서 일별 유출량 및 월별 수질자료를 이용하여 보정($1999{\sim}2000$)하였으며, $2001{\sim}2002$년 자료를 이용하여 검증하였다. 유출량에 대한 Nash-Sutcliffe 모형효율은 평균 0.59의 결과를 얻었으며, Sediment, T-N, T-P 부하량은 각각 2.08, 4.30, 0.70 tons/yr의 RMSE 오차로 검보정되었다. 농촌소유역을 대상으로 다양한 공간자료(Case A, B, C)를 적용하여 수문, 수질모의를 실시한 결과, 유출량은 토지이용도 해상도에 의한 모의결과의 불확실성이 가장 큰 것으로 분석되었다. QuickBird 토지이용도의 유역평균 CN값이 1/25,000과 Landsat 토지이용에 비해 0.4, 1.8 더 크게 분석됨으로서 총유출량도 증가하였다. 한편, 유사량과 영영물질 오염부하량에 대한 수질모의 결과는 QuickBird(Case A) 토지이용도의 유사량 및 T-N, T-P 부하량이 1/25,000(Case B) 토지이용도에 비해 23.7 %, 43.3 %, 48.4 %, Landsat(Case C) 토지이용도에 비해 50.6 %, 50.8 %, 56.9 % 높게 평가되는 것으로 분석되었다.

인지된 위험의 유형이 소비자 신뢰 및 온라인 구매의도에 미치는 영향 (The Impact of Perceived Risks Upon Consumer Trust and Purchase Intentions)

  • 홍일유;김우성;임병하
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2011
  • Internet-based commerce has undergone an explosive growth over the past decade as consumers today find it more economical as well as more convenient to shop online. Nevertheless, the shift in the common mode of shopping from offline to online commerce has caused consumers to have worries over such issues as private information leakage, online fraud, discrepancy in product quality and grade, unsuccessful delivery, and so forth, Numerous studies have been undertaken to examine the role of perceived risk as a chief barrier to online purchases and to understand the theoretical relationships among perceived risk, trust and purchase intentions, However, most studies focus on empirically investigating the effects of trust on perceived risk, with little attention devoted to the effects of perceived risk on trust, While the influence trust has on perceived risk is worth studying, the influence in the opposite direction is equally important, enabling insights into the potential of perceived risk as a prohibitor of trust, According to Pavlou (2003), the primary source of the perceived risk is either the technological uncertainty of the Internet environment or the behavioral uncertainty of the transaction partner. Due to such types of uncertainty, an increase in the worries over the perceived risk may negatively affect trust, For example, if a consumer who sends sensitive transaction data over Internet is concerned that his or her private information may leak out because of the lack of security, trust may decrease (Olivero and Lunt, 2004), By the same token, if the consumer feels that the online merchant has the potential to profit by behaving in an opportunistic manner taking advantage of the remote, impersonal nature of online commerce, then it is unlikely that the merchant will be trusted, That is, the more the probable danger is likely to occur, the less trust and the greater need to control the transaction (Olivero and Lunt, 2004), In summary, a review of the related studies indicates that while some researchers looked at the influence of overall perceived risk on trust level, not much attention has been given to the effects of different types of perceived risk, In this context the present research aims at addressing the need to study how trust is affected by different types of perceived risk, We classified perceived risk into six different types based on the literature, and empirically analyzed the impact of each type of perceived risk upon consumer trust in an online merchant and further its impact upon purchase intentions. To meet our research objectives, we developed a conceptual model depicting the nomological structure of the relationships among our research variables, and also formulated a total of seven hypotheses. The model and hypotheses were tested using an empirical analysis based on a questionnaire survey of 206 college students. The reliability was evaluated via Cronbach's alphas, the minimum of which was found to be 0.73, and therefore the questionnaire items are all deemed reliable. In addition, the results of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) designed to check the validity of the measurement model indicate that the convergent, discriminate, and nomological validities of the model are all acceptable. The structural equation modeling analysis to test the hypotheses yielded the following results. Of the first six hypotheses (H1-1 through H1-6) designed to examine the relationships between each risk type and trust, three hypotheses including H1-1 (performance risk ${\rightarrow}$ trust), H1-2 (psychological risk ${\rightarrow}$ trust) and H1-5 (online payment risk ${\rightarrow}$ trust) were supported with path coefficients of -0.30, -0.27 and -0.16 respectively. Finally, H2 (trust ${\rightarrow}$ purchase intentions) was supported with relatively high path coefficients of 0.73. Results of the empirical study offer the following findings and implications. First. it was found that it was performance risk, psychological risk and online payment risk that have a statistically significant influence upon consumer trust in an online merchant. It implies that a consumer may find an online merchant untrustworthy if either the product quality or the product grade does not match his or her expectations. For that reason, online merchants including digital storefronts and e-marketplaces are suggested to pursue a strategy focusing on identifying the target customers and offering products that they feel best meet performance and psychological needs of those customers. Thus, they should do their best to make it widely known that their products are of as good quality and grade as those purchased from offline department stores. In addition, it may be inferred that today's online consumers remain concerned about the security of the online commerce environment due to the repeated occurrences of hacking or private information leakage. Online merchants should take steps to remove potential vulnerabilities and provide online notices to emphasize that their website is secure. Second, consumer's overall trust was found to have a statistically significant influence on purchase intentions. This finding, which is consistent with the results of numerous prior studies, suggests that increased sales will become a reality only with enhanced consumer trust.

지능형 시뮬레이션 모형을 기반으로 한 정보기술 투자 성과 요인 및 전략 도출에 관한 연구 (A study on the Success Factors and Strategy of Information Technology Investment Based on Intelligent Economic Simulation Modeling)

  • 박도형
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.35-55
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    • 2013
  • 최근 기업 경영에 있어 정보기술의 도입 및 전략적인 활용은 선택이 아닌 필수로 자리잡고 있다. 기업의 전략적인 목표와 정보기술 간의 상호 의존은 기업의 생존 및 성장에 중요한 역할을 하고 있으며, 이에 따라 이미 많은 기업이 지속적으로 정보기술에 투자하고 있다. 정보기술 투자 성과 관련해서는 기업 내부의 요인들과 전략들, 기업외부의 고객까지 여러 가지 복합적인 요소들이 서로 상호작용하고 있기 때문에, 각 요인들을 독립적으로 분리하여 정보기술 투자 성과에 미치는 영향력을 분석하는 것이 쉽지 않다. 이에 본 연구는 기존의 연구들을 바탕으로 정보기술 투자성과에 영향을 줄 수 있는 변수들을 도출하여, 각 변수들의 관계를 수리적인 모델링을 통해 단순화시키고, 시뮬레이션 방법론을 이용하여 각 변수들의 변화에 정보기술 투자 성과는 어떻게 달라지는지를 밝혔다. 본 연구의 결과는 정보기술 투자는 서비스의 품질을 증가시켜 경제학적인 성과들에 간접적으로 영향을 주고, 정보기술 투자와 동시에 소비자 잉여는 증가되지만, 큰 투자비용으로 회사의 이익은 감소하게 된다. 그리고 시간이 지남에 따라 품질 증가에 관한 정보가 고객들 사이에 퍼져 나가게 되므로 최종적으로 기업의 수익을 증가시켜준다. 또한, 정보기술 투자 성과 극대화를 위해서는 회사가 제공하는 서비스와 소비자들의 네트워크 효과 등이 고려되어 정보기술 투자 여부를 결정하고, 회사에 맞는 정보기술 투자 전략을 세워야 함을 시뮬레이션 모형을 통해 확인할 수 있었다. 구체적으로, 한 번에 많은 투자를 할 경우는 단기적인 성과는 클 것으로 기대되나, 장기적으로 좋은 성과가 이뤄지지 않는다. 그러나 정보의 확산 속도가 빠르거나 정보의 장벽이 될 수 있는 정보를 받지 못하는 소비자가 적을 경우 단기에 집중 투자 하는 것이 많은 수요를 얻을 수 있다. 또, 여러 번에 걸쳐 투자하는 경우는 적당한 주기를 가지게 될 경우 장기적으로 큰 성과를 낼 수 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 경제학 모델링과 시뮬레이션을 결합시켜, 각각의 한계를 모두 극복할 수 있는 방법론을 활용했다는 측면과, 정보기술 투자의 성과를 제품 품질의 매개 효과 모형에 적용하여 정보기술 투자와 기업 성과간의 관계를 보여주었다는 측면, 마지막으로 정보기술 투자 전략 및 정보의 확산 효과를 반영하여 정보기술 투자의 성과를 확인할 수 있다는 측면에서 의의가 있다.

무리행동과 지각된 유용성이 이러닝 컨텐츠 구매의도에 미치는 영향: 구매경험에 의한 비교분석 (The Effect of Herding Behavior and Perceived Usefulness on Intention to Purchase e-Learning Content: Comparison Analysis by Purchase Experience)

  • 유철우;김용진;문정훈;최영찬
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.105-130
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    • 2008
  • Consumers of e-learning market differ from those of other markets in that they are replaced in a specific time scale. For example, e-learning contents aimed at highschool senior students cannot be consumed by a specific consumer over the designated period of time. Hence e-learning service providers need to attract new groups of students every year. Due to lack of information on products designed for continuously emerging consumers, the consumers face difficulties in making rational decisions in a short time period. Increased uncertainty of product purchase leads customers to herding behaviors to obtain information of the product from others and imitate them. Taking into consideration of these features of e-learning market, this study will focus on the online herding behavior in purchasing e-learning contents. There is no definite concept for e-learning. However, it is being discussed in a wide range of perspectives from educational engineering to management to e-business etc. Based upon the existing studies, we identify two main view-points regarding e-learning. The first defines e-learning as a concept that includes existing terminologies, such as CBT (Computer Based Training), WBT (Web Based Training), and IBT (Internet Based Training). In this view, e-learning utilizes IT in order to support professors and a part of or entire education systems. In the second perspective, e-learning is defined as the usage of Internet technology to deliver diverse intelligence and achievement enhancing solutions. In other words, only the educations that are done through the Internet and network can be classified as e-learning. We take the second definition of e-learning for our working definition. The main goal of this study is to investigate what factors affect consumer intention to purchase e-learning contents and to identify the differential impact of the factors between consumers with purchase experience and those without the experience. To accomplish the goal of this study, it focuses on herding behavior and perceived usefulness as antecedents to behavioral intention. The proposed research model in the study extends the Technology Acceptance Model by adding herding behavior and usability to take into account the unique characteristics of e-learning content market and e-learning systems use, respectively. The current study also includes consumer experience with e-learning content purchase because the previous experience is believed to affect purchasing intention when consumers buy experience goods or services. Previous studies on e-learning did not consider the characteristics of e-learning contents market and the differential impact of consumer experience on the relationship between the antecedents and behavioral intention, which is the target of this study. This study employs a survey method to empirically test the proposed research model. A survey questionnaire was developed and distributed to 629 informants. 528 responses were collected, which consist of potential customer group (n = 133) and experienced customer group (n = 395). The data were analyzed using PLS method, a structural equation modeling method. Overall, both herding behavior and perceived usefulness influence consumer intention to purchase e-learning contents. In detail, in the case of potential customer group, herding behavior has stronger effect on purchase intention than does perceived usefulness. However, in the case of shopping-experienced customer group, perceived usefulness has stronger effect than does herding behavior. In sum, the results of the analysis show that with regard to purchasing experience, perceived usefulness and herding behavior had differential effects upon the purchase of e-learning contents. As a follow-up analysis, the interaction effects of the number of purchase transaction and herding behavior/perceived usefulness on purchase intention were investigated. The results show that there are no interaction effects. This study contributes to the literature in a couple of ways. From a theoretical perspective, this study examined and showed evidence that the characteristics of e-learning market such as continuous renewal of consumers and thus high uncertainty and individual experiences are important factors to be considered when the purchase intention of e-learning content is studied. This study can be used as a basis for future studies on e-learning success. From a practical perspective, this study provides several important implications on what types of marketing strategies e-learning companies need to build. The bottom lines of these strategies include target group attraction, word-of-mouth management, enhancement of web site usability quality, etc. The limitations of this study are also discussed for future studies.

레이더 강우 및 분포형 수문모형의 공간해상도가 매개변수 추정에 미치는 영향 평가 (Impact Assessment of Spatial Resolution of Radar Rainfall and a Distributed Hydrologic Model on Parameter Estimation)

  • 노성진;최신우;최윤석;김경탁
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제34권5호
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    • pp.1443-1454
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 레이더 강우와 분포형 수문모형의 공간해상도가 매개변수 추정 및 강우-유출 모의에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 레이더 강우는 비슬산 S밴드 이중편파 강우레이더에서 2012년 관측된 강우사상을 대상으로, R-KDP, R-Z, R-ZDR의 관계식에 의해 추정된 레이더 강우를 지상관측 강우와 비교하였다. 세 가지 강우 추정식에 의한 레이더 강우를 지상 관측 강우와 비교 시 유역 평균에 대해서는 모두 높은 일치도를 보였으며, 이는 지상 관측 강우에 대한 레이더 강우 보정의 영향으로 판단되었다. 그 중에서도 R-KDP에 의한 추정 강우가 비교적 높은 정확도를 보였으며, 이를 강우-유출 모형의 입력자료로 적용하였다. 강우-유출 모형으로는 GRM (grid based rainfall-runoff model) 모형을 이용하여, 낙동강 수계 금호강 유역을 대상으로, 200m, 500m, 1000m의 공간해상도로 입력자료를 구축하였다. 또한, 범용 매개변수 최적화 모형인 PEST(model independent parameter estimation tool)로 초기 포화도, 지표면 조도계수 및 토양 투수계수의 보정계수를 각 공간해상도 및 호우사상 별로 추정하였다. 매개변수 추정 결과, 200m 공간해상도 모형에서는 비교대상 강우사상에 대해 지표면 조도계수와 토양 투수계수 관련 보정계수가 비교적 안정적으로 추정되었으나, 500m, 1000m 공간해상도 모형에서는 강우사상에 따라 매개변수의 최적 추정 값의 변동이 확인되었다. 초기 포화도는 강우사상 별, 공간해상도 별로 일정한 경향을 보이지 않았다. 또한, 200m와 1000m 공간해상도에 대해 최적화된 매개변수를 다른 공간해상도에 적용한 결과, 1000m 공간해상도에 대해 보정된 매개변수를 200m 공간해상도 모형에 적용하면 첨두 홍수량이 증가하는 경향이 있었다.

적응적 메쉬세분화기법과 분할격자기법을 이용한 극한 도시홍수 실험 모의 (Numerical Simulation of Urban Flash Flood Experiments Using Adaptive Mesh Refinement and Cut Cell Method)

  • 안현욱;유순영
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제44권7호
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    • pp.511-522
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    • 2011
  • 적응적 메쉬세분화기법과 분할격자기법을 적용한 2차원 천수방정식모형을 활용하여 구조물을 고려한 극한 홍수 실험을 모의하였다. 본 연구에 사용된모형은 두 격자생성 기법을함께 사용함으로서 복잡한 경계를보다 적은 격자로 효율적으로 표현하는 것이 가능하며, 동적 적응 메쉬세분화기법을 사용하여 흐름이 빠르게 변하는 영역에서 정확도를 유지하면서도 효율적으로 계산하는 것이 가능하다. HLLC 리만근사해법과 MUSCL 기법을 적용하여 시공간상에서 2차정도를 유지하며, 댐붕괴파와 같은 불연속적인 흐름을 정확하게 모의할 수 있다. 모형의 검증을 위해 IMPACT 프로젝트에서 수행한 도시지역 극한홍수실험을 모의하였다. 실험결과와 모의결과가 양호하게 일치하는 것을 확인하였으며, 천이류 현상과 함께 구조물에 의한 홍수파 전달 양상이 의미있는 수준으로 모의된 것을 확인하였다. 또한 분할격자기법의 사용으로 모델의 격자 민감도가 향상되었다. 본 모델은 댐붕괴와 같이 내수침수현상이 지배적이지 않은 도시범람을 모의하는데 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

배출량 목록에 따른 수도권 PM10 예보 정합도 및 국내외 기여도 분석 (Impact of Emission Inventory Choices on PM10 Forecast Accuracy and Contributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area)

  • 배창한;김은혜;김병욱;김현철;우정헌;문광주;신혜정;송인호;김순태
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제33권5호
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    • pp.497-514
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    • 2017
  • This study quantitatively analyzes the effects of emission inventory choices on the simulated particulate matter (PM) concentrations and the domestic/foreign contributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) with an air quality forecasting system. The forecasting system is composed of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Different domestic and foreign emission inventories were selectively adopted to set up four sets of emissions inputs for air quality simulations in this study. All modeling cases showed that model performance statistics satisfied the criteria levels (correlation coefficient >0.7, fractional error <50%) suggested by previous studies. Notwithstanding the apparently good model performance of total PM concentrations by all emission cases, annual average concentrations of simulated total PM concentrations varied up to $20{\mu}g/m^3$ (160%) depending on the combination of emission inventories. In detail, the difference in simulated annual average concentrations of the primary PM coarse (PMC) was up to $25.2{\mu}g/m^3$ (6.5 times) compared with other cases. Furthermore, model performance analyses on PM species showed that the difference in the simulated primary PMC led to gross model overestimation in general, which indicates that the primary PMC emissions need to be improved. The contribution analysis using model direct outputs indicated that the domestic contributions to the annual average PM concentrations in the SMA vary from 44% to 67%. To account for the uncertainty of the simulated concentration, the contribution correction factor method proposed by Bae et al. (2017) was applied, which resulted in converged contributions(from 48% to 57%). We believe this study shows that it is necessary to improve the simulated concentrations of PM components in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting model. It is deemed that these improvements will provide more accurate contribution results.