• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Index

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Use of the Quantitatively Transformed Field Soil Structure Description of the US National Pedon Characterization Database to Improve Soil Pedotransfer Function

  • Yoon, Sung-Won;Gimenez, Daniel;Nemes, Attila;Chun, Hyen-Chung;Zhang, Yong-Seon;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Kang, Seong-Soo;Kim, Myung-Sook;Kim, Yoo-Hak;Ha, Sang-Keun
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.944-958
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    • 2011
  • Soil hydraulic properties such as hydraulic conductivity or water retention which are costly to measure can be indirectly generated by soil pedotransfer function (PTF) using easily obtainable soil data. The field soil structure description which is routinely recorded could also be used in PTF as an input to reduce the uncertainty. The purposes of this study were to use qualitative morphological soil structure descriptions and soil structural index into PTF and to evaluate their contribution in the prediction of soil hydraulic properties. We transformed categorical morphological descriptions of soil structure into quantitative values using categorical principal component analysis (CATPCA). This approach was tested with a large data set from the US National Pedon Characterization database with the aid of a categorical regression tree analysis. Six different PTFs were used to predict the saturated hydraulic conductivity and those results were averaged to quantify the uncertainty. Quantified morphological description was successively used in multiple linear regression approach to predict the averaged ensemble saturated conductivity. The selected stepwise regression model with only the transformed morphological variables and structural index as predictors predicted the $K_{sat}$ with $r^2$ = 0.48 (p = 0.018), indicating the feasibility of CATPCA approach. In a regression tree analysis, soil structure index and soil texture turned out to be important factors in the prediction of the hydraulic properties. Among structural descriptions size class turned out to be an important grouping parameter in the regression tree. Bulk density, clay content, W33 and structural index explained clusters selected by a two step clustering technique, implying the morphologically described soil structural features are closely related to soil physical as well as hydraulic properties. Although this study provided relatively new method which related soil structure description to soil structure index, the same approach should be tested using a datasets containing the actual measurement of hydraulic properties. More insight on the predictive power of soil structure index to estimate hydraulic properties would be achieved by considering measured the saturated hydraulic conductivity and the soil water retention.

Resistance Factor Calculation of Driven Piles of Long Span Bridges (장대교량 타입말뚝에 대한 저항계수 산정)

  • Kim, Dong-Wook;Park, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Joon-Yong;Kwak, Ki-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2013
  • Assessment of uncertainties of loads and resistances is prerequisite for the development of load and resistance factor design (LRFD). Many previous studies related to resistance factor calculations of piles were conducted for short or medium span bridges (span lengths less than 200m) reflecting the live load uncertainty for ordinary span bridges. In this study, by using a revised live load model and its uncertainty for long span bridges (span lengths longer than 200m and shorter than 1500m), resistance factors are recalibrated. For the estimation of nominal pile capacity (both base and shaft capacities), the Imperial College Pile (ICP) design method is used. For clayey and sandy foundation, uncertainty of resistance is assessed based on the ICP database. As long span bridges are typically considered as more important structures than short or medium span bridges, higher target reliability indices are assigned in the reliability analysis. Finally, resistance factors are calculated and proposed for the use of LRFD of driven piles for ordinary span and long span bridges.

Uncertainty of Simulated Paddy Rice Yield using LARS-WG Derived Climate Data in the Geumho River Basin, Korea (LARS-WG 기후자료를 이용한 금호강 유역 모의발생 벼 생산량의 불확실성)

  • Nkomozepi, Temba D.;Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2013
  • This study investigates the trends and uncertainty of the impacts of climate change on paddy rice production in the Geumho river basin. The Long Ashton Research Station stochastic Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to derive future climate data for the Geumho river basin from 15 General Circulation models (GCMs) for 3 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A2, A1B and B1) included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) AquaCrop, a water-driven crop model, was statistically calibrated for the 1982 to 2010 climate. The index of agreement (IoA), prediction efficiency ($R^2$), percent bias (PBIAS), root mean square error (RMSE) and a visual technique were used to evaluate the adjusted AquaCrop simulated yield values. The adjusted simulated yields showed RMSE, NSE, IoA and PBIAS of 0.40, 0.26, 0.76 and 0.59 respectively. The 5, 9 and 15 year central moving averages showed $R^2$ of 0.78, 0.90 and 0.96 respectively after adjustment. AquaCrop was run for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2050s (2046-2065) and 2090s (2080-2099). Climate change projections for Geumho river basin generally indicate a hotter and wetter future climate with maximum increase in the annual temperature of $4.5^{\circ}C$ in the 2090s A1B, as well as maximum increase in the rainfall of 45 % in the 2090s A2. The means (and ranges) of paddy rice yields are projected to increase by 21 % (17-25 %), 34 % (27-42 %) and 43 % (31-54 %) for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively. The A1B shows the largest rice yield uncertainty in all time slices with standard deviation of 0.148, 0.189 and $0.173t{\cdot}ha^{-1}$ for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively.

Structural Equation Modeling for Quality of Life of Mothers of Children with Developmental Disabilities: Focusing on the Self-Help Model (발달장애아 어머니 삶의 질 구조모형: Self-Help Model을 중심으로)

  • Yang, Mi Ran;Yu, Mi
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.308-323
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study aimed to construct and test a predictive model for the quality of life (QOL) in mothers of children with developmental disabilities (DB). The hypothesized model included severity of illness, distress, uncertainty, self-help, and parenting efficacy as influencing factors, QOL as a consequence based on the Braden's Self-Help Model. Methods: The data were collected through a direct and online surveys from 206 mothers in 8 locations, including welfare or daycare centers, developmental treatment centers, and The Parents' Coalition for the Disabled located in two provinces of Korea. Data were analysed using SPSS/WIN 23.0 and AMOS 21.0 program. Results: The fit indices of the predictive model satisfied recommended levels; 𝛘2 = 165.79 (p < .001), normed 𝛘2 (𝛘2/df) = 2.44, RMR = .04, RMSEA = .08, GFI = .90, AGFI = .85, NFI = .91, TLI = .93, CFI = .95. Among the variables, distress (β = - .46, p < .001), parenting efficacy (β = .22, p < .001), and self-help (β = .17, p = .018) had direct effects on QOL. Severity of illness (β = - .61, p = .010) and uncertainty (β = - .08, p = .014) showed indirect effects. The explanatory power of variables was 61.0%. Conclusion: The study results confirm the utility of Braden's Self-Help Model. They provide a theoretical basis for improving QOL in mothers of children with DB. Nursing intervention strategies that can relieve mothers' distress and uncertainty related to disease and enhance parenting efficacy and self-help behavior should be considered.

Spatial distribution and uncertainty of daily rainfall for return level using hierarchical Bayesian modeling combined with climate and geographical information (기후정보와 지리정보를 결합한 계층적 베이지안 모델링을 이용한 재현기간별 일 강우량의 공간 분포 및 불확실성)

  • Lee, Jeonghoon;Lee, Okjeong;Seo, Jiyu;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.10
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    • pp.747-757
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    • 2021
  • Quantification of extreme rainfall is very important in establishing a flood protection plan, and a general measure of extreme rainfall is expressed as an T-year return level. In this study, a method was proposed for quantifying spatial distribution and uncertainty of daily rainfall depths with various return periods using a hierarchical Bayesian model combined with climate and geographical information, and was applied to the Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi region. The annual maximum daily rainfall depth of six automated synoptic observing system weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration in the study area was fitted to the generalized extreme value distribution. The applicability and reliability of the proposed method were investigated by comparing daily rainfall quantiles for various return levels derived from the at-site frequency analysis and the regional frequency analysis based on the index flood method. The uncertainty of the regional frequency analysis based on the index flood method was found to be the greatest at all stations and all return levels, and it was confirmed that the reliability of the regional frequency analysis based on the hierarchical Bayesian model was the highest. The proposed method can be used to generate the rainfall quantile maps for various return levels in the Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi region and other regions with similar spatial sizes.

How Does Economic News Affect S&P 500 Index Futures? (거시경제변수가 S&P 500 선물지수에 어떤 영향을 미치는가?)

  • So, Yung-Il;Ko, Jong-Moon;Choi, Won-Kun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.341-357
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    • 1996
  • Some empirical studies have shown that asset prices respond to announcements of economic news, however, others also have found little evidence. This study assesses how market participants of the S&P 500 Index Futures reacted to the U.S. economic news announcements. For this purpose, using a GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model, we use several U.S. news variables, its each surprise component and interest rates. We find that some economic news variables affected significantly on the S&P 500 Index Futures. In other words, we find that weekend variable, lagged volatility, and surprise component of trade deficit increased level of volatility. However, interest rate, M1, unemployment announcements caused the variance of the S&P 500 Index Futures to reduce, and each of the surprise component of M1 and trade deficit increased it. The result suggests that resolution of uncertainty, through economic news announcement, while, in some cases, causes market participants to reduce their forecast of volatility, a large difference between the market's forecast and the realization of the series causes the volatility to increase.

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Proposal of Practical Reference-Model and It's Performance Improvement for PID Control (PID제어를 위한 실용적인 기준 모델 제안과 성능개선)

  • Hur, J.G.;Yang, K.U.
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.66-72
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    • 2007
  • This study proposed new method to decide the reference model necessary for design PID controller. In generally, control design problems using the reference model have the following two factors. One factor is that numerical model of the controlled system can be obtained extremely, and the other is that specification for the closed-loop dynamic performance is pure moderate. Therefore, the control design procedure is essentially based on the partial reference model matching which offers a reasonable method to simplify the design and the controller configuration under the controlled system uncertainty. ITAE(Integral of time-multiplied absolute error) performance index and Kitamori method etc. which were used a reference model method had a limit to settling time and rising time of reference model that it arrived to steady state response according to the controlled system. On this study, if it only knew peak time of overshoot and settling time by measurement signal of the controlled system, it can be made the reference model easily. We proposed new method to improve performance index of the reference model superior to existing reference model index and illustrate the numerical simulation results to show the effectiveness of proposed control method design.

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A Study on Clothing Behavior of World Female Political Leaders -Based on Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions Theory- (세계 여성 정치 지도자 의복행동 연구 -홉스테드 문화이론을 중심으로-)

  • Chae, Keum Seok;Kim, Ju Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.433-445
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    • 2017
  • This study uses a macro-viewpoint to investigate how female world leaders' clothing behaviors are different by nation and culture. This study conducted a comparative study on clothing behavior by cultural block in order to understand similarities and differences based on Hofstede's cultural dimensions theory. The findings are as follows. First, the clothing styles of female world leaders are categorized into classical suit style, national traditional style, and eclectic style. Second, classic suit style is more often found in countries characterized by high individualism, low power distance index, and low avoidance index. The style represents individual activity and rationality as well as trust towards women acting in men's roles. Third, a national traditional style is found in countries featuring high collectivism, high power distance index, and high uncertainty avoidance index. These countries share a culture that emphasizes harmony with the whole, rather than any one given part; consequently, clothing style represents a national identity (or the roles as a national member) rather than that of the individual level. Fourth, an eclectic clothing style is expressed in a mixture of classical suits and a national traditional style that depends on how much Eastern and Western cultures are reasonably compromised or Eastern tradition and Western culture coexist.

Shannon's Information Theory and Document Indexing (Shannon의 정보이론과 문헌정보)

  • Chung Young Mee
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.6
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    • pp.87-103
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    • 1979
  • Information storage and retrieval is a part of general communication process. In the Shannon's information theory, information contained in a message is a measure of -uncertainty about information source and the amount of information is measured by entropy. Indexing is a process of reducing entropy of information source since document collection is divided into many smaller groups according to the subjects documents deal with. Significant concepts contained in every document are mapped into the set of all sets of index terms. Thus index itself is formed by paired sets of index terms and documents. Without indexing the entropy of document collection consisting of N documents is $log_2\;N$, whereas the average entropy of smaller groups $(W_1,\;W_2,...W_m)$ is as small $(as\;(\sum\limits^m_{i=1}\;H(W_i))/m$. Retrieval efficiency is a measure of information system's performance, which is largely affected by goodness of index. If all and only documents evaluated relevant to user's query can be retrieved, the information system is said $100\%$ efficient. Document file W may be potentially classified into two sets of relevant documents and non-relevant documents to a specific query. After retrieval, the document file W' is reclassified into four sets of relevant-retrieved, relevant-not retrieved, non-relevant-retrieved and non-relevant-not retrieved. It is shown in the paper that the difference in two entropies of document file Wand document file W' is a proper measure of retrieval efficiency.

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Automatic Threshold Selection and Contrast Intensification Technique for Image Enhancement (영상 향상을 위한 자동 임계점 선택 및 대비 강화 기법)

  • Lee, Geum-Boon;Cho, Beom-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.462-470
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    • 2008
  • This study applies fuzzy functions to improve image quality under the assumption that uncertainty of image information due to low contrast is based on vagueness and ambiguity of the brightness pixel values. To solve the problem of low contrast images whose brightness distribution is inclined, we use the k-means algorithm as a parameter of the fuzzy function, through which automatic critical points can be found to differentiate objects from background and contrast between bright and dark points can be improved. The fuzzy function is presented at the three main stages presented to improve image quality: fuzzification, contrast enhancement and defuzzification. To measure improved image quality, we present the fuzzy index and entropy index and in comparison with those of histogram equalization technique, it shows outstanding performance.

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