• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Assessment

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Simulation of dam inflow using a square grid and physically based distributed model (격자 기반의 물리적 분포형 모형을 이용한 댐 유입량 모의)

  • Choi, Yun Seok;Choi, Si Jung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.289-300
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the GRM (Grid based rainfall-Runoff Model) to the continuous simulation by simulating the dam inflow. The GRM was previously developed for the simulation of rainfall-runoff events but has recently been improved to enable continuous simulation. The target watersheds are Chungju dam, Andong dam, Yongdam dam, and Sumjingang dam basins, and runoff models were constructed with the spatial resolution of 500 m × 500 m. The simulation period is 21 years (2001 to 2021). The simulation results were evaluated over the 17 year period (2005 to 2021), and were divided into three data periods: total duration, wet season (June to September), and dry season (October to May), and compared with the observed daily inflow of each dam. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), correlation coefficient (CC), and total volume error (VE) were used to evaluate the fitness of the simulation results. As a result of evaluating the simulated dam inflow, the observed data could be well reproduced in the total duration and wet season, and the dry season also showed good simulation results considering the uncertainty of low-flow data. As a result of the study, it was found that the continuous simulation technique of the GRM model was properly implemented and the model was sufficiently applicable to the simulation of dam inflow in this study.

Development of an Efficiency Calibration Model Optimization Method for Improving In-Situ Gamma-Ray Measurement for Non-Standard NORM Residues (비정형 공정부산물 In-Situ 감마선 측정 정확도 향상을 위한 효율교정 모델 최적화 방법 개발)

  • WooCheol Choi;Tae-Hoon Jeon;Jung-Ho Song;KwangPyo Kim
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.471-479
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    • 2023
  • In In-situ radioactivity measurement techniques, efficiency calibration models use predefined models to simulate a sample's geometry and radioactivity distribution. However, simplified efficiency calibration models lead to uncertainties in the efficiency curves, which in turn affect the radioactivity concentration results. This study aims to develop an efficiency calibration optimization methodology to improve the accuracy of in-situ gamma radiation measurements for byproducts from industrial facilities. To accomplish the objective, a drive mechanism for rotational measurement of an byproduct simulator and a sample was constructed. Using ISOCS, an efficiency calibration model of the designed object was generated. Then, the sensitivity analysis of the efficiency calibration model was performed, and the efficiency curve of the efficiency calibration model was optimized using the sensitivity analysis results. Finally, the radiation concentration of the simulated subject was estimated, compared, and evaluated with the designed certification value. For the sensitivity assessment of the influencing factors of the efficiency calibration model, the ISOCS Uncertainty Estimator was used for the horizontal and vertical size and density of the measured object. The standard deviation of the measurement efficiency as a function of the longitudinal size and density of the efficiency calibration model decreased with increasing energy region. When using the optimized efficiency calibration model, the measurement efficiency using IUE was improved compared to the measurement efficiency using ISOCS at the energy of 228Ac (911 keV) for the nuclide under analysis. Using the ISOCS efficiency calibration method, the difference between the measured radiation concentration and the design value for each simulated subject measurement direction was 4.1% (1% to 10%) on average. The difference between the estimated radioactivity concentration and the design value was 3.6% (1~8%) on average when using the ISOCS IUE efficiency calibration method, which was closer to the design value than the efficiency calibration method using ISOCS. In other words, the estimated radioactivity concentration using the optimized efficiency curve was similar to the designed radioactivity concentration. The results of this study can be utilized as the main basis for the development of regulatory technologies for the treatment and disposal of waste generated during the operation, maintenance, and facility replacement of domestic byproduct generation facilities.

A Study on Conflict Prevention in the Site Selection of National Defense Facility Relocation Projects (중대재해 처벌 법의 실효성 제고를 위한 법적 쟁점 분석 및 경영자 안전보건관리 전략에 대한 연구)

  • Hoon Han
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.253-260
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to analyze the key legal issues of the Serious Accidents Punishment Act (SAPA), which came into effect on 2022, in South Korea, and to propose practical occupational safety and health management strategies for business executives. The SAPA was introduced to prevent serious industrial accidents and protect workers' lives and safety. However, its effectiveness has been controversial due to the ambiguity of the law and uncertainty in its application. The study first provides an overview of the SAPA's main provisions and analyzes legal issues focusing on the punishment of business executives and the punitive damages system. Key issues identified include the ambiguity of "safety and health obligations," difficulties in proving causality, and unclear criteria for determining intent or gross negligence. Recent cases of serious accidents are examined to illustrate practical challenges in applying the law. Furthermore, the study compares the punitive damages system under the SAPA with that of the Product Liability Act and similar systems in the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany. This comparative analysis highlights the characteristics and problems of the Korean system, such as the unclear punitive nature, controversy over excessive compensation, and potential for abuse of litigation. Finally, the study proposes practical occupational safety and health management strategies for business executives to effectively respond to the SAPA and create safer workplaces. Key strategies include establishing a safety and health management system, conducting risk assessments, implementing safety education, managing subcontractor safety, and investing in safety and health.

A Study on Usefulness of Clinical Application of Metal Artifact Reduction Algorithm in Radiotherapy (방사선치료 시 Metal artifact reduction Algorithm의 임상적용 유용성평가)

  • Park, Ja Ram;Kim, Min Su;Kim, Jeong Mi;Chung, Hyeon Suk;Lee, Chung Hwan;Back, Geum Mun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The tissue description and electron density indicated by the Computed Tomography(CT) number (also known as Hounsfield Unit) in radiotherapy are important in ensuring the accuracy of CT-based computerized radiotherapy planning. The internal metal implants, however, not only reduce the accuracy of CT number but also introduce uncertainty into tissue description, leading to development of many clinical algorithms for reducing metal artifacts. The purpose of this study was, therefore, to investigate the accuracy and the clinical applicability by analyzing date from SMART MAR (GE) used in our institution. Methode: and material: For assessment of images, the original images were obtained after forming ROIs with identical volumes by using CIRS ED phantom and inserting rods of six tissues and then non-SMART MAR and SMART MAR images were obtained and compared in terms of CT number and SD value. For determination of the difference in dose by the changes in CT number due to metal artifacts, the original images were obtained by forming PTV at two sites of CIRS ED phantom CT images with Computerized Treatment Planning (CTP system), the identical treatment plans were established for non-SMART MAR and SMART MAR images by obtaining unilateral and bilateral titanium insertion images, and mean doses, Homogeneity Index(HI), and Conformity Index(CI) for both PTVs were compared. The absorbed doses at both sites were measured by calculating the dose conversion constant (cCy/nC) from ylinder acrylic phantom, 0.125cc ionchamber, and electrometer and obtaining non-SMART MAR and SMART MAR images from images resulting from insertions of unilateral and bilateral titanium rods, and compared with point doses from CTP. Result: The results of image assessment showed that the CT number of SMART MAR images compared to those of non-SMART MAR images were more close to those of original images, and the SD decreased more in SMART compared to non-SMART ones. The results of dose determinations showed that the mean doses, HI and CI of non-SMART MAR images compared to those of SMART MAR images were more close to those of original images, however the differences did not reach statistical significance. The results of absorbed dose measurement showed that the difference between actual absorbed dose and point dose on CTP in absorbed dose were 2.69 and 3.63 % in non-SMRT MAR images, however decreased to 0.56 and 0.68 %, respectively in SMART MAR images. Conclusion: The application of SMART MAR in CT images from patients with metal implants improved quality of images, being demonstrated by improvement in accuracy of CT number and decrease in SD, therefore it is considered that this method is useful in dose calculation and forming contour between tumor and normal tissues.

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Development of Three-Dimensional Trajectory Model for Detecting Source Region of the Radioactive Materials Released into the Atmosphere (대기 누출 방사성물질 선원 위치 추적을 위한 3차원 궤적모델 개발)

  • Suh, Kyung-Suk;Park, Kihyun;Min, Byung-Il;Kim, Sora;Yang, Byung-Mo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2016
  • Background: It is necessary to consider the overall countermeasure for analysis of nuclear activities according to the increase of the nuclear facilities like nuclear power and reprocessing plants in the neighboring countries including China, Taiwan, North Korea, Japan and South Korea. South Korea and comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty organization (CTBTO) are now operating the monitoring instruments to detect radionuclides released into the air. It is important to estimate the origin of radionuclides measured using the detection technology as well as the monitoring analysis in aspects of investigation and security of the nuclear activities in neighboring countries. Materials and methods: A three-dimensional forward/backward trajectory model has been developed to estimate the origin of radionuclides for a covert nuclear activity. The developed trajectory model was composed of forward and backward modules to track the particle positions using finite difference method. Results and discussion: A three-dimensional trajectory model was validated using the measured data at Chernobyl accident. The calculated results showed a good agreement by using the high concentration measurements and the locations where was near a release point. The three-dimensional trajectory model had some uncertainty according to the release time, release height and time interval of the trajectory at each release points. An atmospheric dispersion model called long-range accident dose assessment system (LADAS), based on the fields of regards (FOR) technique, was applied to reduce the uncertainties of the trajectory model and to improve the detective technology for estimating the radioisotopes emission area. Conclusion: The detective technology developed in this study can evaluate in release area and origin for covert nuclear activities based on measured radioisotopes at monitoring stations, and it might play critical tool to improve the ability of the nuclear safety field.

A Study on Developing a Model for Cancer Damage Cost Due to Risk from Benzene in Ulsan Metropolitan City (울산 지역에서 대기중 벤젠으로 인한 암 사망 손실비용 추정 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Jin;Kim, Ye-Shin;Shin, Dong-Chun;Shin, Young-Chul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.49-82
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    • 2004
  • The study aimed to evaluate cancer damage cost due to risk from benzene inhalation. We performed health risk assessment based on US EPA guideline to estimate annual population risk in Ulsan metropolitan city. Also, we estimated a willingness-to-pay amount for reducing a cancer mortality rate to evaluate a value of statistical life. We combined the annual population risk and the value of statistical life to calculate the cancer damage cost. In the health risk assessment, we applied the benzene unit risk ($2.2{\times}10^{-6}{\sim}7.8{\times}10^{-6}$) in the US EPA'S Integrated Risk Information System to assess the annual population risk. Average concentration of benzene in ambient air is $7.88{\mu}g/m^3$(min: 1.16~max: $23.32{\mu}g/m^3$). We targeted an exposure population of 516,641 persons who aged over 30 years old. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis, we evaluated that the population risk of benzene during ten years in Ulsan city is 2.90 persons (5 percentile: 0.32~95 percentile: 9.11persons). And the monthly average WTP for 5/1,000 cancer mortality reduction during ten years is 14,852 Won(95% C.I: 13,135~16,794 Won) and the implied VSL is 36 million Won(95% C.I: 30~40 million Won). Cancer damage cost due to risk from benzene inhalation during 10 years in Ulsan city is about 104 million Won(5 percentile: 13~95 percentile: 328 million Won). Health benefit cost to reduce a cancer mortality risk of benzene is about 50 million Won is Ulsan metropolitann city. But, it is very important that this cost is not for all health damage cost of cancer mortality in some area. We just recommended a model for evaluating a cancer risk reduction, so we must re-evaluate an integrated application of total VOCs damage cost including benzene.

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The Study on the Marine Eco-toxicity and Ecological Risk of Treated Discharge Water from Ballast Water Management System Using Electrolysis (전기분해원리를 이용한 선박평형수관리장치의 배출수에 대한 해양생태독성 및 해양환경위해성에 관한 연구)

  • Shon, M.B.;Son, M.H.;Lee, J.;Son, Y.J.;Lee, G.H.;Moon, C.H.;Kim, Y.S.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.88-101
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    • 2013
  • The International Convention for the Control and Management of Ship's Ballast Water and Sediments was adopted at 2004 and then various BWMS (ballast water management system) have been developed. In this study, WET (whole effluent toxicity) test with algae (diatom) Skeletonema costatum as primary producer, invertebrate (rotifera) Brachionus plicatilis as 1st consumer and fish (olive flounder) Paralichthys olivaceus as predator, chemical analysis and ERA (environmental risk assessment) were conducted to assess the unacceptable effect on marine ecosystem by emitting the discharge water treated with AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS using electrolysis as main treatment equipment for removing the marine organisms in the ship's ballast water. The most sensitive test organism on discharge water treated with AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS was S. costatum that gave the NOEC value of 25.00%, LOEC value of 50.00% and 72hr-$EC_{50}$ value of 69.97% from WET test result for 20 psu salinity treated discharge water. NOEC and LOEC value of B. plicatilis and P. olivaceus exposed at 20 psu salinity treated discharge water were 50.00% and 100.00%, respectively. In the chemical analysis results, total number of substances produced by AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS was 18 which were bromate, 7 volatile halogenated organic compounds, 7 halogenated acetic acids, 3 halogenated acetonitriles and chloropicrin. Eighteen substances did not consider as persistence and bioaccumulative chemicals. Uncertainty of toxic property of 18 substances was high. PECs of 18 substances calculated by MAMPEC model were ranged from $4.58{\times}10^{-4}$ to $4.87{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, PNECs of them were ranged from $1.6{\times}10^{-2}$ to $3.2{\times}10^2{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$. And, the PEC/PNEC ratio of 18 substances did not exceed 1. Therefore, ERA for produced substances indicate that the discharge water treated with AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS does not pose unacceptable effect on marine life. And $EC_{50}$ value of S. costatum on discharge water treated by BWMS using the electrolysis had positive correlation with initial TRO concentration, concentration and kind & level of HAAs.

Exploring the Factors Influencing on the Accuracy of Self-Reported Responses in Affective Assessment of Science (과학과 자기보고식 정의적 영역 평가의 정확성에 영향을 주는 요소 탐색)

  • Chung, Sue-Im;Shin, Donghee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.363-377
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    • 2019
  • This study reveals the aspects of subjectivity in the test results in a science-specific aspect when assessing science-related affective characteristic through self-report items. The science-specific response was defined as the response that appear due to student's recognition of nature or characteristics of science when his or her concepts or perceptions about science were attempted to measure. We have searched for cases where science-specific responses especially interfere with the measurement objective or accurate self-reports. The results of the error due to the science-specific factors were derived from the quantitative data of 649 students in the 1st and 2nd grade of high school and the qualitative data of 44 students interviewed. The perspective of science and the characteristics of science that students internalize from everyday life and science learning experiences interact with the items that form the test tool. As a result, it was found that there were obstacles to accurate self-report in three aspects: characteristics of science, personal science experience, and science in tool. In terms of the characteristic of science in relation to the essential aspect of science, students respond to items regardless of the measuring constructs, because of their views and perceived characteristics of science based on subjective recognition. The personal science experience factor representing the learner side consists of student's science motivation, interaction with science experience, and perception of science and life. Finally, from the instrumental point of view, science in tool leads to terminological confusion due to the uncertainty of science concepts and results in a distance from accurate self-report eventually. Implications from the results of the study are as follows: review of inclusion of science-specific factors, precaution to clarify the concept of measurement, check of science specificity factors at the development stage, and efforts to cross the boundaries between everyday science and school science.

On Using Near-surface Remote Sensing Observation for Evaluation Gross Primary Productivity and Net Ecosystem CO2 Partitioning (근거리 원격탐사 기법을 이용한 총일차생산량 추정 및 순생태계 CO2 교환량 배분의 정확도 평가에 관하여)

  • Park, Juhan;Kang, Minseok;Cho, Sungsik;Sohn, Seungwon;Kim, Jongho;Kim, Su-Jin;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kang, Mingu;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.251-267
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    • 2021
  • Remotely sensed vegetation indices (VIs) are empirically related with gross primary productivity (GPP) in various spatio-temporal scales. The uncertainties in GPP-VI relationship increase with temporal resolution. Uncertainty also exists in the eddy covariance (EC)-based estimation of GPP, arising from the partitioning of the measured net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into GPP and ecosystem respiration (RE). For two forests and two agricultural sites, we correlated the EC-derived GPP in various time scales with three different near-surface remotely sensed VIs: (1) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), (2) enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and (3) near infrared reflectance from vegetation (NIRv) along with NIRvP (i.e., NIRv multiplied by photosynthetically active radiation, PAR). Among the compared VIs, NIRvP showed highest correlation with half-hourly and monthly GPP at all sites. The NIRvP was used to test the reliability of GPP derived by two different NEE partitioning methods: (1) original KoFlux methods (GPPOri) and (2) machine-learning based method (GPPANN). GPPANN showed higher correlation with NIRvP at half-hourly time scale, but there was no difference at daily time scale. The NIRvP-GPP correlation was lower under clear sky conditions due to co-limitation of GPP by other environmental conditions such as air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. However, under cloudy conditions when photosynthesis is mainly limited by radiation, the use of NIRvP was more promising to test the credibility of NEE partitioning methods. Despite the necessity of further analyses, the results suggest that NIRvP can be used as the proxy of GPP at high temporal-scale. However, for the VIs-based GPP estimation with high temporal resolution to be meaningful, complex systems-based analysis methods (related to systems thinking and self-organization that goes beyond the empirical VIs-GPP relationship) should be developed.

The Factors Affecting on the Franchisor's Performance and Its Intention of Recontracting with Franchisees : Focused on the Chinese Franchise Market (프랜차이즈 본부의 성과 및 재계약의도에 영향을 미치는 요인들에 관한 연구 : 중국프랜차이즈 시장을 중심으로)

  • Shuai, Su;Seo, Sang-Yun;Lee, Hoon-Yong
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2012
  • Franchises have recently emerged as the most rapidly expanding industry positioned to create a large impact in the domestic economic. The Chinese franchise industry developed rapidly in the period prior and subsequent to WTO accession with more than 50% of new franchises brands emerging since 2000. M&A transactions in the Chinese franchise industry have progressed actively. In the period from 2005-2007, due to the wholesale and retail market opening in accordance with the guidelines laid forth within the MOU by the WTO the Chinese franchise market is now the largest market in the world all despite a short history of only 20 years. The amount of franchise market research on China is disproportional to its current size and development potential. Beginning in the 1990s, market research conducted by the International Franchise Association focused on emerging markets in Eastern Europe and China. While the research dealt with the Chinese investment environment, it insufficiently explained the market region and cultural environment. The purpose of this research is (i) to investigate the determinants of the performance of franchise systems in China and (ii) new contract renewals based on performance factors. This study will complement existing research in terms of the franchisee perspective. This study may also prove of the benefit to the franchise companies entering the Chinese franchise market enabling them to develop an effective strategy. This study shows that support, incentives, and system standardization by franchisor yielded a positive effect on management performance. This is consistent with previous studies by Shin (2000) and Kim (2008) targeting Korean franchises. Therefore, in the Chinese market, the franchisor must focus on support, incentives, and system standardization rather than concentrate only on the recruitment of franchisees in order to improve revenue. Hypotheses regarding franchisor control have been dismissed in existing research, in the opinion of this study, due to their complexity and inability to control the merchant as a one-kind-assessment-standard. Our findings show that the franchisees' financial condition, management ability and entrepreneurial spirit, among franchisee's characteristics, have a positive effect on franchisor's business performance and satisfaction for the franchisee. This is consistent with previous studies on headquarters' management performance of Lussier (1996), Heo and Jang (2008), and franchisees' financial condition, management ability and entrepreneurial spirit effect on franchisor's satisfaction of Weaven and Franzer (2007), Kim (2009), Han (2009), and Yoon etc. (2008). Therefore, when permitting a franchisee, financial condition, management ability, entrepreneurship of the franchisee should be carefully considered. Among relational factors between franchisor and franchisee, trust has the positive influence on the management performance of the franchisor while conflict has a negative effect. However, trust, commitment and conflict factors have been shown not to have any impact on the satisfaction of the franchise headquarters. This result is consistent with the previous studies of Pavlou and Ba (2000), Morrison (1999), Weaven and Frazer (2007), Kim and Park (1994), Sohn (2007) which show that trust between franchisor and the franchisees have a positive effect and that conflict has a negative impact on franchisor's management performance. Other factors causing a negative effective on the franchisor's management performance are a rapid environmental changes and uncertainty in the business. This is consistent with Campbell et al (2007), Kim and Kim (2009), Han and Baek (2008). Finally, the high management performance and satisfaction of the franchise headquarters has a positive effect on the intention of franchise renewal. In the case of large markets such as China, the franchisor's strategy and the role is very important. In this study, we also investigated the characteristics of franchisor and franchisee, relationship, and environmental uncertainty affecting on the management performance and satisfaction of franchisor. Recently, Korean franchises are attempting to enter foreign markets through the rise in popularity of Korean culture and entertainment commonly referred to as the Korean wave. This study provides recommendations for Korean franchises intending on entering the Chinese market. First, in order to achieve stable profits, the franchise corporation needs to support the operation of the individual franchisee through incentives and standardization of services. Second, because trust between the franchisor and franchisee has a positive effect on management performance, on-going discussion and cooperation is necessary to reduce the level of conflict.

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