• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty

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Consideration of the Effect according to Variation of Material and Respiration in Cone-Beam CT (Cone-Beam CT에서 물질 및 호흡 변화가 영상에 미치는 영향에 대한 고찰)

  • Na, Jun-Young;Kim, Jung-Mi;Kim, Dae-Sup;Kang, Tae-Young;Baek, Geum-Mun;Kwon, Gyeong-Tae
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: Image Guided Radiation Therapy (IGRT) has been carried out using On-Board Imager system (OBI) in Asan Medical Center. For this reason, This study was to analyze and evaluate the impact on Cone-Beam CT according to variation of material and respiration. Materials and Methods: This study was to acquire and analyze Cone-Beam CT three times for two material: Cylider acryl (lung equvalent material, diameter 3 cm), Fiducial Marker (using clinic) under Motion Phantom able to adjust respiration pattern randomly was varying period, amplitude and baseline vis-a-vis reference respiration pattern. Results: First, According to a kind of material, when being showed 100% in the acryl and 120% in the Fiducial Marker under the condition of same movement of the motion phantom. Second, According to the respiratory alteration, when being showed 1.13 in the baseline shift 1.8 mm and 1.27 in the baseline shift 3.3 mm for acryl. when being showed 1.01 in 1 sec of period and 1.045 in 2.5 sec of period for acryl. When being showed 0.86 in 0.7 times the standard of amplitude and 1.43 in 1.7 times the standard of amplitude for acryl. when being showed 1.18 in the baseline shift 1.8 mm and 1.34 in the baseline shift 3.3 mm for Fiducial Marker. when being showed 1.0 in 1 sec of period and 1.0 in 2.5 sec of period for Fiducial Marker. When being showed 0.99 in 0.7 times the standard of amplitude and 1.66 in 1.7 times the standard of amplitude for Fiducial Marker. Conclusion: The effect of image size of CBCT was 20% in the case of Fiducial marker. The impact of changes in breathing pattern was minimum 13% - maximum 43% for Arcyl, min. 18% - max. 66% for Fiducial marker. This difference makes serious uncertainty. So, Must be stabilized breathing of patient before acquiring CBCT. also must be monitored breathing of patient in the middle of acquire. If you observe considerable change of breathing when acquiring CBCT. After Image Guided, must be need to check treatment site using fluoroscopy. If a change is too big, re-acquiring CBCT.

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The Investigation Regarding the Dose Change due to the Heterogeneity of Prostate Cancer Treatment with IMRT (전립선암의 세기조절 방사선치료 시 불균질부에 의한 선량변화에 관한 고찰)

  • Yoon, Il-Kyu;Park, Jang-Pil;Lee, Jae-Hee;Park, Heung-Deuk
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: The pelvic phantom was fabricated in the following purposes: (1) Dose verification of IMRT plan using Eclipse planning computer, (2) to study the interface effect at the interface between rectal wall and air. The TLD can be inserted in the pelvic phantom to confirm the dose distribution as well as uncertainty at the interface. Materials and Methods: A pelvic phantom with the dimension of 30 cm diameter, 20 cm height and 20 cm thickness was fabricated to investigate the dose at the rectal wall. The phantom was filled with water and has many features like bladder, rectum, and prostate and seminal vesicle (SV). The rectum is made of 3 cm-dimater plastic pipe, and it cab be blocked by using a plug, and film can be inserted around the rectal wall. The phantom was scanned with Philips Brillance scanner and various organs such as prostate, SV, and rectal wall, and bladder wall were delineated. The treatment parameters used in this study are the same as those used in the protocols in the SNUH. TLD chips are inserted to the phantom to evaluate the dose distribution to the rectal wall (to simulate high dose gradient region), bladder wall and SV (to simulate the high dose region) and 2 spots in anterior surface (to simulate the low dose region). The TLD readings are compared with those of the planning computer (ECLIPSE, Varian, USA). Results: The target TLD doses represented as the prostate and SV show excellent agreements with the doses from the RTP within +/-3%. The rectal wall doses measured at the rectal wall are different from the those of the RTP by -11%. This is in literatures called as an interface effect. The underdosages at the rectal wall is independent of 3 heterogeneity correction algorithm in the Eclipse RTP. Also the low dose regions s represented as surface in this study were within +/-1%. Conclusion: The RTP estimate the dosage very accurately withihn +/-3% in the high dose (SV, or prostate) and low dose region (surface). However, the dosage at the rectal wall differed by as much as 11% (In literatures, the underdosage of 9$\sim$15% were reported). This range of errors occurs at the interface, for example, at the interface between lung and chest wall, or vocal cord. This interface effect is very important in clinical situations, for example, to estimate the NTCP (normal tissue complication probability) and to estimate the limitations of the current RTP system. Monte-carlo-based RTP will handle this issue correctly.

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A Study on the Effects of Meterological Factors on the Distribution of Agricultural Products: Focused on the Distribution of Chinese Cabbages (기상요인이 농산물 유통에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 배추 유통 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyunjoung;Hong, Jinhwan
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.59-83
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    • 2012
  • Agriculture is a primary industry that influenced by the weather or meterological factors more than other industry. Global warming and worldwide climate changes, and unusual weather phenomena are fatal in agricultural industry and human life. Therefore, many previous studies have been made to find the relationship between weather and the productivity of agriculture. Meterological factors also influence on the distribution of agricultural product. For example, price of agricultural product is determined in the market, and also influenced by the weather of the market. However, there is only a few study was made to find this link. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of meterological factors on the distribution of agricultural products, focusing on the distribution of chinese cabbages. Chinese cabbage is a main ingredient of Kimchi, and basic essential vegetable in Korean dinner table. However, the production of chinese cabbages is influenced by weather and very fluctuating so that the variation of its price is so unstable. Therefore, both consumers and farmers do not feel comfortable at the unstable price of chinese cabbages. In this study, we analyze the real transaction data of chinese cabbage in wholesale markets and meterological factors depending on the variety and geography. We collect and analyze data of meterological factors such as temperatures, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall, snowfall, wind speed, insolation, sunshine duration in producing and consuming region of chinese cabbages. The result of this study shows that the meterological factors such as temperature and humidity significantly influence on the volume and price of chinese cabbage transaction in wholesale market. Especially, the weather of consuming region has greater correlation effects on transaction than that of producing region in all types of chinese cabbages. Among the whole agricultural lifecycle of chinese cabbages, 'seeding - harvest - shipment - wholesale', meterological factors such as temperature and rainfall in shipment and wholesale period are significantly correlated with transaction volume and price of crops. Based on the result of correlation analysis, we make a regression analysis to verify the meterological factors' effects on the volume and price of chines cabbage transaction in wholesale market. The results of stepwise regression analysis are shown in

    and
    . The type of chinese cabbages are categorized by 5 types, i.e. alpine, gimjang for winter, spring, summer, and winter crop, and all of the regression models are shown significant relationship. In addition, meterological factors in shipment and wholesale period are entered more in regression model than those in seeding and harvest period. This result implies that weather in consuming region is also important in the distribution of chinese cabbages. Based on the result of this study, we find several implications and recommendations for policy makers of agricultural product distribution. The goal of agricultural product distribution policy is to insure proper price and production cost for farmers and provide proper price and quality, and stable supply for consumers. Therefore, coping with the uncertainty of weather is very essential to make a fruitful effect of the policy. In reality, very big part of consumer price of chinese cabbage is made up of the margin of intermediaries, because they take the risk. In addition, policy makers make efforts for farmers to utilize AWIS (Agricultural Weather Information System). In order to do that, it should integrate the relevant information including distribution and marketing as well as production. Offering a consulting service to farmers about weather management is also expected to be a good option in agriculture and weather industry. Reflecting on the result of this study, the distribution authorities can offer the guideline for the timing and volume of harvest, and it is expected to contribute to the stable equilibrium of supply and demand of agricultural products.

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  • A Study on Industrial Potential of Artificial Intelligence through the Cases of Film and Artificial Intelligence Art (예술에서 살펴본 인공지능의 미래 산업화 가능성 - 영화와 인공지능 예술을 중심으로)

    • Kim, Hee-Young
      • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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      • s.50
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      • pp.423-452
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      • 2018
    • The possibility of future industrialization of artificial intelligence was studied through aspects of artificial intelligence art and movie. The field of artificial intelligence is developing by imitating humans through past and present, so it can be inferred that it is important to grasp the future image presented in movie and artificial intelligence art. Human values are represented differently in artificial intelligence films and arts. Artificial intelligence film and art are concerned with the external and internal aspects of human values, respectively. The AI movie looks at similar external aspects in human and AI shape and function, but artificial intelligence art deals with human alienation and lack of communication due to artificial intelligence technology development. Artificial intelligence in movies is a direction to visualize the imagination for artificial intelligence technology, and artificial intelligence art is expressed in the way of making and implementing works using technology. The future of artificial intelligence, which we have shown in imagination in movies today, is being realized technologically. Artificial intelligence art reflects the problems of artificial intelligence technology that can be appeared through current technology, and human problems that may arise from artificial intelligence technology development. Movies and artificial intelligence art reflect the current problems, and through them we can see the future of artificial intelligence. The future of artificial intelligence in movies is an artificial intelligence service that provides human convenience, cyborg artificial intelligence industry, industry that uses exoskeleton robot and exoskeleton suit, and artificial intelligence secretary. If we look at the future of artificial intelligence through the artificial intelligence art in terms of the problems of artificial intelligence technology and the problem of human value, there are artificial intelligence to learn from trial and error or mistakes, self-expression and communication by lifelogging, recovery of miscommunications by a reflective thinking, and an expansion of the area of artificial intelligence artist through human uncertainty. The future industrialization potential of artificial intelligence as study through aspects of artificial intelligence art and movie is an industry that extends the five senses, an industry that improves the insufficient physical ability of the human, an industry that enhances the physical ability of the human being, and an industry that maintains psychological and mental well-being.

    Assessing Future Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Components of Gyeongancheon Watershed (기후변화가 경안천 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가)

    • Ahn, So-Ra;Park, Min-Ji;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
      • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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      • v.42 no.1
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      • pp.33-50
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      • 2009
    • The impact on hydrologic components considering future potential climate, land use change and vegetation cover information was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated (1999 - 2000) and validated (2001 - 2002) for the upstream watershed ($260.4\;km^2$) of Gyeongancheon water level gauging station with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.77 to 0.60 and 0.79 to 0.60, respectively. Two GCMs (MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM) future weather data of high (A2), middle (A1B) and low (B1) emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the data was corrected by 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model) and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. Three periods data of 2010 - 2039 (2020s), 2040 - 2069 (2050s), 2070 - 2099 (2080s) were prepared. To reduce the uncertainty of land surface conditions, future land use and vegetation canopy prediction were tried by CA-Markov technique and NOAA NDVI-Temperature relationship respectively. MIROC3.2 hires and ECHAM5-OM showed increase tendency in annual streamflow up to 21.4 % for 2080 A1B and 8.9 % for 2050 A1B scenario respectively. The portion of future predicted ET about precipitation increased up to 3 % in MIROC3.2 hires and 16 % in ECHAM5-OM respectively. The future soil moisture content slightly increased compared to 2002 soil moisture.

    Monitoring of Atmospheric Aerosol using GMS-5 Satellite Remote Sensing Data (GMS-5 인공위성 원격탐사 자료를 이용한 대기 에어러솔 모니터링)

    • Lee, Kwon Ho;Kim, Jeong Eun;Kim, Young Jun;Suh, Aesuk;Ahn, Myung Hwan
      • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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      • v.5 no.2
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      • pp.1-15
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      • 2002
    • Atmospheric aerosols interact with sunlight and affect the global radiation balance that can cause climate change through direct and indirect radiative forcing. Because of the spatial and temporal uncertainty of aerosols in atmosphere, aerosol characteristics are not considered through GCMs (General Circulation Model). Therefor it is important physical and optical characteristics should be evaluated to assess climate change and radiative effect by atmospheric aerosols. In this study GMS-5 satellite data and surface measurement data were analyzed using a radiative transfer model for the Yellow Sand event of April 7~8, 2000 in order to investigate the atmospheric radiative effects of Yellow Sand aerosols, MODTRAN3 simulation results enable to inform the relation between satellite channel albedo and aerosol optical thickness(AOT). From this relation AOT was retreived from GMS-5 visible channel. The variance observations of satellite images enable remote sensing of the Yellow Sand particles. Back trajectory analysis was performed to track the air mass from the Gobi desert passing through Korean peninsular with high AOT value measured by ground based measurement. The comparison GMS-5 AOT to ground measured RSR aerosol optical depth(AOD) show that for Yellow Sand aerosols, the albedo measured over ocean surfaces can be used to obtain the aerosol optical thickness using appropriate aerosol model within an error of about 10%. In addition, LIDAR network measurements and backward trajectory model showed characteristics and appearance of Yellow Sand during Yellow Sand events. These data will be good supporting for monitoring of Yellow Sand aerosols.

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    A Study on the Effect of the Bidding Stage Factors of Logistics Outsourcing Service on Trust, Cooperation and Service Satisfaction (물류아웃소싱 서비스의 입찰단계 요인이 신뢰, 협력 및 서비스 만족도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

    • Lee, Nam-Seung;Song, Sang-Hwa
      • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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      • v.36 no.2
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      • pp.19-36
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      • 2020
    • The bidding phase for logistics outsourcing services is critical for both shippers and logistics companies. According to the logistics bidding phase, the shipper should provide logistics operation information to logistics companies to resolve uncertainty. In addition, the logistics company can win the contract volume that was placed in the bid by expressing their experience and know-how, and proposing to share the risks and benefits of the shipper's logistics operation. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the factors that can be identified during the bidding phase for logistics outsourcing and how these factors affect the satisfaction of logistics outsourcing services. Based on the factors identified in the preceding studies on logistics outsourcing partnership factors and those on logistics outsourcing determinants, a survey was conducted on experts engaged in logistics companies, performing logistics for domestic shippers and analyzed using Smart-PLS. This study presents the following implications. First, in the logistics bidding phase, the shipper should provide its logistics operation information to logistics firms to resolve uncertainties. Details An in-depth explanation of the operation details will be presented via the bidding presentation, and on-site tours of manufacturing plants and logistics centers should also be carried out if necessary. Second, in the bidding phase, logistics companies should appeal through proposals to their competitiveness, such as experience and knowledge of the logistics of the shipper, and also consider alliances with other logistics companies to supplement their insufficient logistics services. Third, logistics companies should make proposals to share profits and risks through logistics outsourcing during the bidding phase, propose accepting risks from environmental uncertainties of the shipper within its capacity to an acceptable extent, and share the benefits of carrying out the shipper's logistics.

    Compare the Clinical Tissue Dose Distributions to the Derived from the Energy Spectrum of 15 MV X Rays Linear Accelerator by Using the Transmitted Dose of Lead Filter (연(鉛)필터의 투과선량을 이용한 15 MV X선의 에너지스펙트럼 결정과 조직선량 비교)

    • Choi, Tae-Jin;Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Ok-Bae
      • Progress in Medical Physics
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      • v.19 no.1
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      • pp.80-88
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      • 2008
    • Recent radiotherapy dose planning system (RTPS) generally adapted the kernel beam using the convolution method for computation of tissue dose. To get a depth and profile dose in a given depth concerened a given photon beam, the energy spectrum was reconstructed from the attenuation dose of transmission of filter through iterative numerical analysis. The experiments were performed with 15 MV X rays (Oncor, Siemens) and ionization chamber (0.125 cc, PTW) for measurements of filter transmitted dose. The energy spectrum of 15MV X-rays was determined from attenuated dose of lead filter transmission from 0.51 cm to 8.04 cm with energy interval 0.25 MeV. In the results, the peak flux revealed at 3.75 MeV and mean energy of 15 MV X rays was 4.639 MeV in this experiments. The results of transmitted dose of lead filter showed within 0.6% in average but maximum 2.5% discrepancy in a 5 cm thickness of lead filter. Since the tissue dose is highly depend on the its energy, the lateral dose are delivered from the lateral spread of energy fluence through flattening filter shape as tangent 0.075 and 0.125 which showed 4.211 MeV and 3.906 MeV. In this experiments, analyzed the energy spectrum has applied to obtain the percent depth dose of RTPS (XiO, Version 4.3.1, CMS). The generated percent depth dose from $6{\times}6cm^2$ of field to $30{\times}30cm^2$ showed very close to that of experimental measurement within 1 % discrepancy in average. The computed dose profile were within 1% discrepancy to measurement in field size $10{\times}10cm$, however, the large field sizes were obtained within 2% uncertainty. The resulting algorithm produced x-ray spectrum that match both quality and quantity with small discrepancy in this experiments.

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    Evaluation of Characteristics in the Reference Gamma Radiation Fields for testing of Personnel Dosimetry Performance (개인선량 평가의 성능검증을 위한 기준급 감마선장의 특성 평가)

    • Oh, Jang-Jin;Cho, Dae-Hyung;Han, Seung-Jae;Na, Seong-Ho;Lee, Dew-Hey;Lee, Byung-Soo;Jun, Jae-Shik;Chai, Ha-Seok;Yi, Chul-Young
      • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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      • v.23 no.4
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      • pp.229-236
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      • 1998
    • In order to establish a testing system for personnel dosimetry performance, the radiation fields from photons, beta particles and neutrons are required, in recent, Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety(KINS) established the reference radation fields except neutrons and tested a variety of their properties. As a result of the test, the reference beams were shown to meet satisfactorily not only the standards of the International Organization for Standardization(ISO), but also the standard levels of the developed countries which are intercomparable with the international traceability. This paper describes the reference beam of gamma radiation. The self-designed and established reference radiation fields were investigated and analyzed by ISO and other international standards. The secondary photon contribution and the beam uniformity of the gamma radiation field were measured and evaluated to fulfill those requirements suggested by the ISO-4037. The measured air kerma rate for the $^{137}$Cs and $^{60}$Co gamma fields was 0.1891 $\sim$ 23.4967 $\mu$Gy/s sand 0.5844 $\sim$ 15.9954 $\mu$Gy/s respectively. The uncertainty with 95 % confidence level of the measured air kerma rate was determined to be less than 2.5 % which is comparable to the international reference gamma radiation fields. It was found that the evaluated air kerma calibration factors of Exradin ionization chamber were in good agreement within 0.9 % and 0.03 % with those given by PTB and NIST, respectively. The gamma radiation fields installed at KINS can maintain traceability systems in Korea, Germany and United State.

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    Correlation among Ownership of Home Appliances Using Multivariate Probit Model (다변량 프로빗 모형을 이용한 가전제품 구매의 상관관계 분석)

    • Kim, Chang-Seob;Shin, Jung-Woo;Lee, Mi-Suk;Lee, Jong-Su
      • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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      • v.19 no.2
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      • pp.17-26
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      • 2009
    • As the lifestyle of consumers changes and the need for various products increases, new products are being developed in the market. Each household owns various home appliances which are purchased through the choice of a decision maker. These appliances include not only large-sized products such as TV, refrigerator, and washing machine, but also small-sized products such as microwave oven and air cleaner. There exists latent correlation among possession of home appliances, even though they are purchased independently. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of demographic factors on the purchase and possession of each home appliances, and to derive some relationships among various appliances. To achieve this purpose, the present status on the possession of each home appliances are investigated through consumer survey data on the electric and energy product. And a multivariate probit(MVP) model is applied for the empirical analysis. From the estimation results, some appliances show a substitutive or complementary pattern as expected, while others which look apparently unrelated have correlation by co-incidence. This research has several advantages compared to previous literatures on home appliances. First, this research focuses on the various products which are purchased by each household, while previous researches such as Matsukawa and Ito(1998) and Yoon(2007) focus just on a particular product. Second, the methodology of this research can consider a choice process of each product and correlation among products simultaneously. Lastly, this research can analyze not only a substitutive or complementary relationship in the same category, but also the correlation among products in the different categories. As the data on the possession of home appliances in each household has a characteristic of multiple choice, not a single choice, a MVP model are used for the empirical analysis. A MVP model is derived from a random utility model, and has an advantage compared to a multinomial logit model in that correlation among error terms can be derive(Manchanda et al., 1999; Edwards and Allenby, 2003). It is assumed that the error term has a normal distribution with zero mean and variance-covariance matrix ${\Omega}$. Hence, the sign and value of correlation coefficients means the relationship between two alternatives(Manchanda et al., 1999). This research uses the data of 'TEMEP Household ICT/Energy Survey (THIES) 2008' which is conducted by Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program in Seoul National University. The empirical analysis of this research is accomplished in two steps. First, a MVP model with demographic variables is estimated to analyze the effect of the characteristics of household on the purchase of each home appliances. In this research, some variables such as education level, region, size of family, average income, type of house are considered. Second, a MVP model excluding demographic variables is estimated to analyze the correlation among each home appliances. According to the estimation results of variance-covariance matrix, each households tend to own some appliances such as washing machine-refrigerator-cleaner-microwave oven, and air conditioner-dish washer-washing machine and so on. On the other hand, several products such as analog braun tube TV-digital braun tube TV and desktop PC-portable PC show a substitutive pattern. Lastly, the correlation map of home appliances are derived using multi-dimensional scaling(MDS) method based on the result of variance-covariance matrix. This research can provide significant implications for the firm's marketing strategies such as bundling, pricing, display and so on. In addition, this research can provide significant information for the development of convergence products and related technologies. A convergence product can decrease its market uncertainty, if two products which consumers tend to purchase together are integrated into it. The results of this research are more meaningful because it is based on the possession status of each household through the survey data.

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