• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty

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A Study on Determinants of Venture Capital Investments During Economic Booms and Busts (경제 호황과 후퇴의 시기에 벤처캐피탈 투자 의사결정요인 비교연구)

  • Kim, Jinsoo;Park, Ji-Hoon;Lee, Sang-Myung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2024
  • Recently, venture capital investment has been shrinking globally due to high interest rates and economic slowdown. Korea is no exception. Due to the downturn in the M&A and public markets, increasing economic uncertainty, and the aftermath of corporate bankruptcies, venture capitalists are facing many difficulties in raising funds. In the changed economic environment, the investment decision factors of venture capitalists have also changed. However, studies on VCs' investment decisions have focused on the general economic environment. This study examines how VCs' investment decision-making factors change during economic recessions and booms. To this end, we interviewed active investors who have experienced both economic recessions and booms to compare how VCs' investment decision factors change: 1) personal characteristics of founders, 2) experience of founders, 3) product/service, 4) market, 5) financial situation, 6) contract terms and 7) venture capital co-investment. The results showed that founder's personal characteristics, experience, and product/service were more important during the economic recession. Market is slightly more important during economic booms. The importance of financial situation and investment conditions increased sharply during the recession compared to the boom. Finally, venture capital co-investment did not differ significantly between recessions and booms. By understanding the investment decision-making factors of venture capitalists in the recent difficult venture investment environment, this study aims to help startups raise funds and survive in a difficult market.

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Estimation of evaporation from water surface in Yongdam Dam using the empirical evaporation equaion (경험적 증발량 공식을 적용한 용담댐 시험유역의 수면증발량 추정)

  • Park, Minwoo;Lee, Joo-Heon;Lim, Yong-kyu;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.139-150
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    • 2024
  • This study introduced a method of estimating water surface evaporation using the physical-based Penman combination equation (PCE) and the Penman wind function (PWF). A set of regression parameters in the PCE and PWF models were optimized by using the observed evaporation data for the period 2016-2017 in the Yongdam Dam watershed, and their effectiveness was explored. The estimated evaporation over the Deokyu Mountain flux tower demonstrated that the PWF method appears to have more improved results in terms of correlation, but both methods showed overestimation. Further, the PWF method was applied to the observed hydro-meteorological data on the surface of Yongdam Lake. The PWF method outperformed the PCE in the estimation of water surface evaporation in terms of goodness-of-fit measure and visual evaluation. Future studies will focus on a regionalization process which can be effective in estimating water surface evaporation for the ungauged area by linking hydrometeorological characteristics and regression parameters.

A Study on Trends of Key Issues in Port Safety at Busan Port (부산항 항만안전 주요 이슈 동향에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong-Min Lee;Do-Yeon Ha;Joo-Hye Kim
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.34-48
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    • 2024
  • As global supply chain risks proliferate unpredictably, the high interdependence of port and logistics industry intensifies the risk burden. This study conducted fundamental research to explore diverse safety issues in domestic ports. Utilizing news article data about Busan Port, we employed LDA topic modeling and time-series linear regression to understand key safety trends. Over the past 30 years, Busan Port faced nine major safety issues-maritime safety, import cargo inspection, labor strikes, and natural disasters emerged cyclically. Major port safety issues in Busan Port are primarily characterized by an unpredictable nature, falling under socio-environmental and natural phenomena types, indicating a significant impact of global uncertainty. Therefore, systematic policies need to be formulated based on identified port safety issues to enhance port safety in Busan Port. Additionally, there is a need to strengthen the resilience of port safety for unpredictable risk situations. In conclusion, advanced research activities are necessary to promote port safety enhancement in response to dynamically changing social conditions.

A Study of Empirical Analysis on Drencher Facilities through Delphi and IPA Analysis (델파이분석과 IPA분석을 통한 드렌처설비의 실증적 분석 연구)

  • Soo Un O;Sung-Hoon Choa
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.177-191
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: In this study, the Drenzer facility, which is a facility installed to prevent the spread of fire caused by fire in adjacent buildings in the fire prevention zone, was analyzed legally and technically. We confirmed the uncertainty of the Building Act and the Fire Protection Act, and suggested the revision of the necessary standards. Method: Although the Drenzer facility is a building facility, it is actually applied in the field of firefighting, so the Delphi analysis was conducted on a panel composed of architectural experts and firefighting experts in the first, second, and third rounds to find the issuses and important facility component elements. Finally, the IPA(Importance-Performance Analysis) analysis was conducted to identify the importance of the elements that need to be revised. Result: Delphi analysis was carried out for experts on various components of Drenzer equipment in the first, second, and third rounds, and it was found that the survey items of the head, detector, and other facilities of the Drenzer equipment are valid items to identify problems. The IPA analysis indicated that the revision of the standards for Drencher head was necessary as a priority. Conclusion: In this study, it was possible to confirm the opinions of experts through Delphi analysis on the legal and technical problems of Drencher facilities, and it was confirmed that among the components of the Drencher facility, the revision of the head-related regulations is required as a priority.

Analysis of Tsunami Characteristics of Korea Southern Coast Using a Hypothetical Scenario (가상시나리오에 따른 남해안 지진해일 특성 연구)

  • Bumshick Shin;Dong-Seog Kim;Dong-Hwan Kim;Sang-Yeop Lee;Si-Bum Jo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.80-86
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    • 2024
  • Large-scale earthquakes are occurring globally, especially in the South Asian crust, which is experiencing a state of tension in the aftermath of the 2011 East Japan Earthquake. Uncertainty and fear regarding the possibility of further seismic activity in the near future have been on the rise in the region. The National Disaster Management Research Institute has previously studied and analyzed the overflow characteristics of a tsunami and the rate of flood forecasting through tsunami numerical simulations of the East Sea of South Korea. However, there is currently a significant lack of research on the Southern Coast tsunamis compared to the East Coast. On the Southern Coast, the tidal difference is between 1~4 m, and the impact of the tides is hard to ignore. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the impact of the tide propagation characteristics on the tsunami. Occurrence regions that may cradle tsunamis that affect the southern coast region are the Ryukyu Island and Nankai Trough, which are active seafloor fault zones. The Southern Coast has not experienced direct damage from tsunamis before, but since the possibility is always present, further research is required to prepare precautionary measures in the face of a potential event. Therefore, this study numerically simulated a hypothetical tsunami scenario that could impact the southern coast of South Korea. In addition, the tidal wave propagation characteristics that emerge at the shore due to tide and tsunami interactions will be analyzed. This study will be used to prepare for tsunamis that might occur on the southern coast through tsunami hazard and risk analysis.

Factors Affecting Intention of Youth Entrepreneurship : A Comparative Study of Mentored vs. Non-Mentored Groups (청년 창업의도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구 : 창업 멘토링 유무의 차이를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Joon-byeong;Lee, Sang-jik
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.201-223
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    • 2024
  • This study undertook an empirical analysis to examine the impact of various factors on entrepreneurial intention among young people, with a particular focus on the role of startup mentoring. Employing a survey distributed nationwide, data from 250 valid respondents were subjected to structural equation modeling to investigate these dynamics. The analysis uncovered that workplace stress, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control positively influence the entrepreneurial intentions of youth. Meanwhile, technological constraints negatively affected these intentions. The study did not explore the potential effects of future uncertainty and the burden of failure. Significantly, it was found that startup mentoring plays a crucial role in mitigating the negative impacts that may deter young individuals from pursuing entrepreneurship. Mentoring was instrumental in reducing negative influences, thereby fostering a more conducive environment for entrepreneurial ambition. By integrating the Push-Pull-Mooring (PPM) and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) models, this research not only validates these frameworks within the context of youth entrepreneurship but also underscores the essential function of startup mentoring in enhancing entrepreneurial intentions. The insights from this study highlight the importance of mentoring programs in nurturing the entrepreneurial spirit among the youth, suggesting that targeted mentoring support can play a pivotal role in overcoming barriers to entrepreneurship.

The effect of R&D investment in Chinese private firms on firm performance and value: The moderating effect of ESG score (중국 민영기업의 R&D 투자가 경영성과와 기업가치에 미치는 영향: ESG 성과지수의 조절효과)

  • Youngsoo Park
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.87-115
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    • 2024
  • This study examines the effect of R&D investment on firm performance and value of Chinese private firms. Through R&D investment, firms aim to acquire knowledge and technological resources to create innovation and competitive advantage, which ultimately enhances firm performance and value. However, unlike other investments, R&D investments are characterized by high adjustment costs and risks, uncertainty and asymmetric information. In addition, the effect of R&D investment on firm performance and value has been shown to be mixed results due to various internal and external contextual factors. Therefore, this study intends to consider how the ESG activities of firms, which have recently attracted attention, act as a contextual factor in the results of R&D investment. This is because interaction with stakeholders through ESG activities is considered to be an important factor in securing competitive advantages and sustainable growth. In this context, this study measures the effect of a firm's R&D investment on its business performance by dividing it into financial performance and value, respectively, and examines the moderating effect of ESG score on the relationship. Based on empirical analysis of all Chinese private firms from 2010 to 2019, the results show that a firm's R&D investment has a negative impact on performance and a positive impact on value. Furthermore, a high ESG score of private firms positively moderates each relationship, emphasizing the importance of ESG activities.

Ensemble Projection of Climate Suitability for Alfalfa (Medicago Sativa L.) in Hamkyongbukdo (함경북도 내 미래 알팔파 재배의 기후적합도 앙상블 전망)

  • Hyun Seung Min;Hyun Shinwoo;Kim Kwang Soo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2024
  • It would be advantageous to grow legume forage crops in order to increase the productivity and sustainability of sloped croplands in Hamkyongbukdo. In particular, the identification of potential cultivation areas for alfalfa in the given region could aid decision-making on policies and management related to forage crop production in the future. This study aimed to analyze the climate suitability of alfalfa in Hamkyongbukdo under current and future climate conditions using the Fuzzy Union model. The climate suitability predicted by the Fuzzy Union model was compared with the actual alfalfa cultivation area in the northern United States. Climate data obtained from 11 global climate models were used as input data for calculation of climate suitability in the study region to examine the uncertainty of projections under future climate conditions. The area where the climate suitability index was greater than a threshold value (22.6) explained about 44% of the variation in actual alfalfa cultivation areas by state in the northern United States. The climatic suitability of alfalfa was projected to decrease in most areas of Hamkyongbukdo under future climate scenarios. The climatic suitability in Onseong and Gyeongwon County was analyzed to be over 88 in the current climate conditions. However, it was projected to decrease by about 66% in the given areas by the 2090s. Our study illustrated that the impact of climate change on suitable cultivation areas was highly variable when different climate data were used as inputs to the Fuzzy Union model. Still, the ensemble of the climate suitability projections for alfalfa was projected to decrease considerably due to summer depression in Hamkyongbukdo. It would be advantageous to predict suitable cultivation areas by adding soil conditions or to predict the climate suitability of other leguminous crops such as hairy vetch, which merits further studies.

Development of an Efficiency Calibration Model Optimization Method for Improving In-Situ Gamma-Ray Measurement for Non-Standard NORM Residues (비정형 공정부산물 In-Situ 감마선 측정 정확도 향상을 위한 효율교정 모델 최적화 방법 개발)

  • WooCheol Choi;Tae-Hoon Jeon;Jung-Ho Song;KwangPyo Kim
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.471-479
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    • 2023
  • In In-situ radioactivity measurement techniques, efficiency calibration models use predefined models to simulate a sample's geometry and radioactivity distribution. However, simplified efficiency calibration models lead to uncertainties in the efficiency curves, which in turn affect the radioactivity concentration results. This study aims to develop an efficiency calibration optimization methodology to improve the accuracy of in-situ gamma radiation measurements for byproducts from industrial facilities. To accomplish the objective, a drive mechanism for rotational measurement of an byproduct simulator and a sample was constructed. Using ISOCS, an efficiency calibration model of the designed object was generated. Then, the sensitivity analysis of the efficiency calibration model was performed, and the efficiency curve of the efficiency calibration model was optimized using the sensitivity analysis results. Finally, the radiation concentration of the simulated subject was estimated, compared, and evaluated with the designed certification value. For the sensitivity assessment of the influencing factors of the efficiency calibration model, the ISOCS Uncertainty Estimator was used for the horizontal and vertical size and density of the measured object. The standard deviation of the measurement efficiency as a function of the longitudinal size and density of the efficiency calibration model decreased with increasing energy region. When using the optimized efficiency calibration model, the measurement efficiency using IUE was improved compared to the measurement efficiency using ISOCS at the energy of 228Ac (911 keV) for the nuclide under analysis. Using the ISOCS efficiency calibration method, the difference between the measured radiation concentration and the design value for each simulated subject measurement direction was 4.1% (1% to 10%) on average. The difference between the estimated radioactivity concentration and the design value was 3.6% (1~8%) on average when using the ISOCS IUE efficiency calibration method, which was closer to the design value than the efficiency calibration method using ISOCS. In other words, the estimated radioactivity concentration using the optimized efficiency curve was similar to the designed radioactivity concentration. The results of this study can be utilized as the main basis for the development of regulatory technologies for the treatment and disposal of waste generated during the operation, maintenance, and facility replacement of domestic byproduct generation facilities.

Home Economics Teachers' Perception on Process-Based Assessment Using the Concerns-Based Adoption Model (CBAM을 활용한 가정과교사의 과정중심평가 인식조사)

  • Bae, Jinhee;Yu, Nan Sook
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.117-133
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    • 2023
  • This study investigates the perceptions, Stages of Concern (SoC), and Levels of Use (LoU) regarding process-based assessment among Home Economics (HE) teachers to determine the necessary support for its implementation in schools. Data were gathered from a survey administered to HE teachers. The results are as follows. First, HE teachers viewed process-based assessment favorably, valuing its multifaceted evaluation approach over result-based assessment. The feedback from process-based assessments was seen as an opportunity for reflection for both educators and students. While some teachers expressed uncertainty about the optimal timing of implementation, they generally demonstrated a sound understanding of the feedback concept within the assessment process. HE teachers were predominantly concerned with their own professional expertise and the learning outcomes of their students. The majority of HE teachers have utilized process-based assessments for at least one semester. None deemed it irrelevant to their practice or showed disinterest in its adoption. Those who had yet to implement it were either in the first(introduction) or the second(preparation) stages.