• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty

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Attitudes of Medical Students' towards End-of-life Care Decision-making (일개 의과대학생의 말기 환자 치료 결정에 대한 태도)

  • Oh, Seung-Min;Cho, Wan-Je;Kim, Jong-Koo;Lee, Hye-Ree;Lee, Duk-Chul;Shim, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.140-146
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: Sooner of later, end-of-life care decision-making will unfold and be settled during the professional lives of medical students. However, there is prevalent ambiguity and uncertainty between the palliative treatment and euthanasia. We conducted this survey to investigate attitudes of medical students towards end-of-life making decisions, and to find out which factors primarily influenced the attitudes. Methods: A study was conducted among medical students at one university, the Republic of Korea. A written questionnaire was sent to all the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd-year medical students. It presented 5 statements on end-of-life decision-making. Students were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with each statement. Results: The response rate was 74.4%, and 267 questionnaires were analyzed. Percentages of agreement with each statements on Voluntary active euthanasia (VAE), Physician assisted suicide (PAS), Withholding life-sustaining management, Withdrawing life-sustaining management, and Terminal sedation (TS) was 37.1%, 21.7%, 58.4%, 60.3%, and 41.6%, respectively. The grade of students, religious activity, and educational experience were determinant factors. Agreement on each statements was higher in the low religious activity group than in the high religious activity group. Agreement on TS was higher among 3rd year students during their clerkship than among 1st and 2nd year students. Age of students and the experience of dying-people care had no significant influence. Conclusion: In end-of-life decision-making, religious and educational factors influenced medical students' attitudes. Especially, the experience of education during clerkship had significant influence on the attitude. Proper teaching on end-of-life decisions should further be considered during medical students' clerkship.

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A Preliminary Epidemiologic Study on Korean Veterans Exposed to Herbicides in Vietnam War (파월국군장병의 고엽제 위해에 관한 예비적 역학조사)

  • Kim, Joung-Soon;Lee, Hyun-Sul;Lee, Hong-Bok;Lee, Won-Young;Park, Young-Joo;Kim, Sung-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.27 no.4 s.48
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    • pp.711-734
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    • 1994
  • Among chemical agents in herbicides, dioxin (2, 3, 7, 8-tetrachloro dibenzo-$\rho$-dioxin : TCDD), a chemical contaminant in herbicides sprayed during the Vietnam War has been known to be the major agent causing toxic effects. Approximately 320,000 korean soldiers participated the Vietnam War from 1964 to 1974. Although the potential hazards of the herbicides among Korean veterans exposed were implicated, the problem had not been a public issue until 1991 when Korean veterans were informed U.S. companies, the herbicides manufacturer payed fund, from which a trust fund for New Zealand and Australian Class members were established in 1985. After a series of appeals and demonstration by the Korean Veterans demanding medical care and compensation for their serious health damages, a bill of medical care and compensation for herbicides victims was promulgated in March 1993 and become effective from May 1993, This study was carried out with two major objectives : the first to understand the health problems caused from the herbicides by reviewing literatures published, and the second to examine the nature and extent of health impacts among Korean veterans exposed and to develop valid study methods for the major study by interviewing and reviewing records on a part of veterans (638 persons) registered and completed medical examination in Seoul Veterans Administration Hospital from June to October 1993. The results obtained are as followings: 1. The literature review of 107 papers revealed that 1) Dioxin is teratogenic, carcinogenic and affects almost all organs including nervous, endocrine, and reproductive systems in animal experiments. 2) The diseases showing evidence of causal association were Hodgkin's disease, non-Hodgkin's disease, lung cancer, lymphoma, soft tissue sarcoma, chloroacne and polyneuropathy when judged on the basis of consistency in study results and biological plausibility. 2. Interview and medical record review study on 638 veterans, though limited validity owing to lack of control group, crude estimates of dioxin exposure levels (no biomarkers measurable), and uncertainty of diagnosis, showed that: 1) Most of the study subject's were in their 40's of age and had been dispatched to Vietnam during the period from $1965{\sim}1970$ around one year. 2) Most frequently complained symptoms in medical examination were motor weakness (32%), sensory abnormalities in extremities (23%), skin diseases (22%), and pain in extremities (20%) whereas in Interview they were more frequent in order of skin problem (44%), motor weakness (38%), sensory abnormalities and pain in extremities(17% and 19% each). Kappa indices on the same category of complaints between two sources of information were variable and relatively low. 3) On medical examination, only a part of the 638 subjects had initial impression (442 pts) and final diagnosis (218 pts) suggesting decision making on diagnosis appeared to be difficult even with all available modern medical technologies: in initial impression disorders from peripheral and central neuropathy were predominant whereas in final diagnosis various types of skin disorder were most frequent 4) When dose-response relationship between several conditions (from questionnaire) and arbitrary exposure scores were examined by CMH linear trend test, spontaneous abortion, sexual problems and health problem of offsprings showed statistically significant linear trends. However, pregnancy, accident and suicidal attempts did not show any relationship in this study capacity. 5) Among complaints, psychosis and neurosis (anxiety, phobia) in interview study, and memory disorder and psychosis in medical record study revealed linear trend. 6) Skin disorder was the only condition showing linear trend in initial impression and none in final diagnosis on medical examination. Even though objective to select out dioxin-related disease or group of diseases from this study was not achieved the research experiences provided firm basis for developing various methodological approaches. 3. From this preliminary study we concluded that a larger scale major epidemiologic study on health impacts of herbicides among Korean veterans exposed is not only Indispensible but also well designed study with more valid exposure information and diagnosis may be able to establish causal relationship between certain groups of diseases and exposure to the herbicides among Korean veterans.

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The Patient Recognition, Acceptability and Evaluation of Feasibility for Day Surgery (종합병원 일부 입원환자의 당일수술에 대한 태도와 당일수술 적용 가능성 평가)

  • Beak, Young-Ran;Lee, Kyeong-Soo;Kim, Seok-Beom;Kang, Pock-Soo;Kang, Young-Ah
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.334-342
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    • 2000
  • Objectives . This study was conducted in order to investigate the degree of recognition, acceptability, and altitude towards day surgery of patients who were hospitalized with diseases that were candidates for day surgery; in order to analyze the average length of stay for treatment of the ailments; and to analyze the percentage of patients who could be discharged on the same day after the surgery ,using the post-anesthesia discharge scoring system. Methods : Data was collected between February 1 and March 31, 1999 from 353 patients who received surgery for cataract, adenoid hypertrophy, inguinal hernia, strabismus, ptosis, cholelithiasis, hemorrhoid, or anal fistula, at a general hospital in Daegu city. The patients were interviewed and surveyed by a post-anesthesia discharge scoring system(PADS) in order to collect data on patient condition such as vital signs, activity and mental status, pain, nausea and vomiting, surgical bleeding, intake and output after the surgery. Results : Among the 353 patients, 52.7% were after of the day surgery and 52.7% were interested in day surgery. Of the respondents, 43.1% said 'my ailment was not serious and the surgery was simple' and 30.4% said 'according to my condition rest at home was desirable' as the reasons for wanting day surgery Alternatively, 56.5% of those declining day surgery said the 'uncertainty of staying home' was the reason. The greatest concern in discharging within 24 hours after surgery was a post-op emergency situation. On the other hand, the shortened hospitalization was the largest advantage of day surgery with 39.1% responding this way, followed by the savings in hospitalization costs (25.8%) and emotional stability (13.7%). The majority of those surveyed (47.6%) believed that discharge should be determined within 1-2 days after the surgery. The average hospital stay was 3.1 days for dischargeable ailments. Pain (45.6%), nausea and vomiting (10.5%), and headache (7.9%) were the common symptoms following surgery. The percentage of patients who were able to be discharged within 24 hours after surgery revealed 95.2% were dischargeable after approximately 3 hours, 99.2% dischargeable after 12 hours, and 100% dischargeable after 24 hours. Conclusions : According to the PADS score, the cataract extract and strabismus correction patients were eligible for day surgery and the further evaluation concerning the reason for delayed recovery of the other diseases is needed.

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Determination of Appropriate Exposure Angles for the Reverse Water's View using a Head Phantom (두부 팬텀을 이용한 Reverse Water's View에 관한 적절한 촬영 각도 분석)

  • Lee, Min-Su;Lee, Keun-Ohk;Choi, Jae-Ho;Jung, Jae-Hong
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.187-195
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    • 2017
  • Early diagnosis for upper facial trauma is difficult by using the standard Water's view (S-Water's) in general radiograph due to overlapping of anatomical structures, the uncertainty of patient positioning, and specific patients with obese, pediatric, old, or high-risk. The purpose of this study was to analyze appropriate exposure angles through a comparison of two different protocols (S-Water's vs. reverse Water's view (R-Water's)) by using a head phantom. A head phantom and general radiograph with 75 kVp, 400 mA, 45 ms 18 mAs, and SID 100 cm. Images of R-Water's were obtained by different angles in the range of $0^{\circ}$ to $50^{\circ}$, which adjusted an angle at 1 degree interval in supine position. Survey elements were developed and three observers were evaluated with four elements including the maxillary sinus, zygomatic arch, petrous ridge, and image distortion. Statistical significant analysis were used the Krippendorff's alpha and Fleiss' kappa. The intra-class correlation (ICC) coefficient for three observers were high with maxillary, 0.957 (0.903, 0.995); zygomatic arch, 0.939 (0.866, 0.987); petrous ridge, 0.972 (0.897, 1.000); and image distortion, 0.949 (0.830, 1.000). The high-quality image (HI) and perfect agreement (PA) for acquired exposure angles were high in range of the maxillary sinus ($36^{\circ}-44^{\circ}C$), zygomatic arch ($33^{\circ}-40^{\circ}$), petrous ridge ($32^{\circ}-50^{\circ}$), and image distortion ($44^{\circ}-50^{\circ}$). Consequently, an appropriate exposure angles for the R-Water's view in the supine position for patients with facial trauma are in the from $36^{\circ}$ to $40^{\circ}$ in this phantom study. The results of this study will be helpful for the rapid diagnosis of facial fractures by simple radiography.

Estimation of Water Quality Index for Coastal Areas in Korea Using GOCI Satellite Data Based on Machine Learning Approaches (GOCI 위성영상과 기계학습을 이용한 한반도 연안 수질평가지수 추정)

  • Jang, Eunna;Im, Jungho;Ha, Sunghyun;Lee, Sanggyun;Park, Young-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.221-234
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    • 2016
  • In Korea, most industrial parks and major cities are located in coastal areas, which results in serious environmental problems in both coastal land and ocean. In order to effectively manage such problems especially in coastal ocean, water quality should be monitored. As there are many factors that influence water quality, the Korean Government proposed an integrated Water Quality Index (WQI) based on in situmeasurements of ocean parameters(bottom dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a concentration, secchi disk depth, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and dissolved inorganic phosphorus) by ocean division identified based on their ecological characteristics. Field-measured WQI, however, does not provide spatial continuity over vast areas. Satellite remote sensing can be an alternative for identifying WQI for surface water. In this study, two schemes were examined to estimate coastal WQI around Korea peninsula using in situ measurements data and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) satellite imagery from 2011 to 2013 based on machine learning approaches. Scheme 1 calculates WQI using estimated water quality-related factors using GOCI reflectance data, and scheme 2 estimates WQI using GOCI band reflectance data and basic products(chlorophyll-a, suspended sediment, colored dissolved organic matter). Three machine learning approaches including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and a modified regression tree(Cubist) were used. Results show that estimation of secchi disk depth produced the highest accuracy among the ocean parameters, and RF performed best regardless of water quality-related factors. However, the accuracy of WQI from scheme 1 was lower than that from scheme 2 due to the estimation errors inherent from water quality-related factors and the uncertainty of bottom dissolved oxygen. In overall, scheme 2 appears more appropriate for estimating WQI for surface water in coastal areas and chlorophyll-a concentration was identified the most contributing factor to the estimation of WQI.

Toxicity Assessment and Establishment Acceptable Daily Intake of Penthiopyrad (펜티오피라드(Penthiopyrad)의 독성평가와 일일섭취허용량 설정)

  • Jeong, Mi-Hye;Hong, Soon-Sung;Park, Kyung-Hun;Kim, Chan-Sub;Park, Jae-Eup;Hong, Moo-Ki;Im, Moo-Hyeog;Kim, Young-Bum;Han, Bum-Seok;Han, Jeung-Sul
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.478-489
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    • 2010
  • Penthiopyrad is a fungicide agent in types of pyrazole which is showing the effect of prevention in fungal disease and powdery mildew. In order to register this new pesticide, reports of acute toxicity and chronic toxicity by animal study were examined to set acceptable daily intake to evaluate hazards of consumers. Acute toxicity was low in toxic, and it did not have the effect of acute dermal toxicity, acute eye irritation, or skin sensitization. As the result of the study in chronic toxicity, the common effect of chemical appeared in the liver and thyroid which was proven as a toxic effect. Two-generation reproduction toxicity, genotoxicity, and prenatal development toxicity were not proven. As the result of carcinogenic study, increase of thyiroid follicular adenoma in the rat and the frequency of liver hepatocellar adenoma in mice were also increased. However, it was decided that the threshold value on the effect in chemicals could be controlled through study liver enzyme induction. Therefore, the ADI for penthiopyrad is 0.081 mg/kg/ bw/day, based on the NOAEL of 8.10 mg/kg bw/day of twelve-months dogs study and applying an uncertainty factor of 100.

Application of the QUAL2E Model and Risk Assessment for Water Quality Management in Namyang Stream in Hwaong Polder (화옹유역 남양천의 수질관리를 위한 QUAL2E적용과 위해성 평가)

  • Jang, Jae-Ho;Jung, Kwang-Wook;Kim, Hyung-Chul;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.39 no.1 s.115
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    • pp.110-118
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    • 2006
  • The Namyang Stream in Hwaong polder was planned for several water uses including recreation, where people can contact the water and consume some amount during the recreational activity. A human health risk was assessed from exposure to E. coli in the Namyang Stream, which receives partially treated wastewater from watershed. The QUAL2E model was applied to simulate stream water quality, and this model was calibrated and verified with field monitoring data. The calibration result showed a high correlation coefficient of greater than 0.9. The mean concentration of E. coli in the Namyang Stream from the QUAL2E output was in the range of 5,000 ${\sim}$ 8,000 MPN 100 mL^{-1}$, which exceeded national and international guidelines. The Beta-Poisson was used to estimate the microbial risk of pathogens ingestion and the Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 trials) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. The Microbial risk assessment showed that the risk ranged from 7.9 ${\times}\;10^{-6}\;to\;9.4\;{\times}10^{-6}$. Based on USEPA guidelines, the range of $10^{-6}\;to\;10^{-8}$ was considered reasonable levels of risk for communicable disease transmission from environmental exposure, and the risk above $10^{-4}$ was considered to be in the danger of infection. Therefore, water quality of the Namyang Stream might not be in the danger of infection although it exceeded national and international guidelines. However, it was in the range of communicable disease transmission, and thorough wastewater collection and treatment at the source is recommended to secure safe recreation water quality.

Clinical Study on Prenatal care, and Dietary Intakes for Pregnant Women and new Mothers (임산부의 산전관리와 산욕기 영양실태에 관한 연구)

  • Chia, Soon-Hyang;Park, Chai-Soon
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.36-46
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    • 1976
  • This study was projected to provide basic data on prenatal care for future direction in maternity and child care, and also to investigate the diet of women during pregnancy and the period directly afterwards in order to offer to mothers appropriate advice for the improvement of nutritional standards. A clinical study on prenatal care was based on 1054 delivery cases. A nutritional survey was performed on 174 mothers admitted to the department of obstetrics at St. Mary's Hospital during the period of March, 1975 to February, 1976. The results obtained are summarized as follows; I. Clinical study on prenatal care 1) The age distribution showed 59.4% of the mothers were between the ages of 25 to 29 years old. 2) The gestational period was highest between the 37th and 40th gestational weeks. 33.7% of the mothers were primigravidae and 31.8% of them primiparae. 3) 41.3% of the mothers had not received prenatal care or had only received it once before. 4) Induced deliveries were 61.8% and spontantaneous deliveries 38.2%. 61.9% of the mothers had received prenatal care, while those without prenatal care accounted for 61.6% of the total induced deliveries. 5) Low birth weights were 7.7% and 5.0% of the mothers had received prenatal care, while 11.5% had no prenatal care. 6) There were 1.13% of still births, 0.32% of the mothers had prenatal care and the remainder did not have prenatal care. 7) Of those receiving prenatal care, 2.1% showed in the $0{\sim}3$ Apgar score group, 6.3% in the $4{\sim}6$ Apgar score group, and 91.6% in the $7{\sim}10$ Apgar score group. Among the non-prenatally cared for group 5.0% of the newborns were in the $0{\sim}3$ Apgar score group, 9.7% were in $4{\sim}6$ Apgar score group and 85.3% were in the $7{\sim}10$ Apgar score group. 8) Obstetrical complications were developed in 11.86% of the pregnant women when they were hospitalized. Among the group receiving the prenatal care 8.1% of the mothers had obstetrical complications. In the group without prenatal care 17.16% of the mothers had obstetrical complications. The most common obstetrical complication was malpresentation. 9) The first prenatal care was received between the 37th and 40th gestationl weeks. II. Food intake during pregnancy The following are the results from the questionnaires of the mothers concerning diets during pregnancy; 1) Main meals and snacks In 32.2% of the cases, their main meals during the diet amounted to more than was usually eaten at other times. In 67.8% of the cases, their main meals during the diet were the same as that usually eaten. In 22.4% of the cases, snacks during the diet amounted to more than usually eaten at other times. In 77.6% of the cases, snacks during the diet were the same as usually eaten. 2) Itemized list The mothers made a special effort to include certain items in their diets, the following is a breakdown of those items; a. egg, meat, fish 33.3% b. fruit, vegetables 32.2%. c. milk, fruit juice 18.4% d. cake, bread 2.9% e. nothing special 13.2% 3) Milk 44.8% of the mothers had at least one cup of milk everyday. 33.4% of the mothers had at least one cup of milk on occasion. 15.5% of the mothers did not have any milk. 4) Vitamins 39.7% of the mothers had vitamins everyday. 24.7% of the mothers had vitamins occasionally. 35.6% of the mothers did not have any vitamins. 5) Anemic symptoms 9.2% of the mothers very often had anemic symptoms during pregnancy. 39.1% of the mothers often had anemic symptoms during pregnancy. 51.7% of the mothers did not have anemic symptoms at all. 6) Taboos on food 23% of the mothers recognized 'taboos' on food during pregnancy 27% of the mothers displayed on uncertainty about the 'taboos' on food during pregnancy 50% of the mothers displayed indifference toward the taboos. III. Nutritional survey on the new mothers diet. 1) The diets for new mothers can be divided into four categories, such as general diet, low sodium diet, soft diet and liquid diet. 2) Cooked rice and seaweed soup were the main foods for the new mothers as has been the traditional diet for Korean mothers. 3) The average diet contained 1,783g. And the average consumption of the basic food groups per capita per day was 1,265g for cereals and grains, 456g for meats and legumes, 58g for fruits and vegetables, 0g for milk and fish and 4g for fats and oils. 4) In addition to the 1,783g of food in the main diet there was also 142.8g of food taken as snacks. 5) The average daily consumption of calories and nutrients was 2,697 Kcal and 123.4g for proteins, 44.9g for fats, 718.2mg for calcium, 14mg for iron, 2,101.4 I.U. for vitamin A, 0.43mg for thiamine, 1.02mg for riboflavin, 15.88mg for niacin, 5.26mg for ascorbic acid. When these figures are compared with the recommended allowances for new mothers in Korea, the calories and nutrients taken in were satisfactory. But the intake of minerals and vitamins was below the recommended allowance.

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Reconsideration of Rare and Endangered Plant Species in Korea Based on the IUCN Red List Categories (IUCN 적색목록 기준에 의한 환경부 멸종위기 야생식물종에 대한 평가)

  • Chang, Chin-Sung;Lee, Heung-Soo;Park, Tae-Yoon;Kim, Hui
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.305-320
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    • 2005
  • Recently 64 species in Korea have been ranked as rare and endangered taxa by the Ministry of Environment using two categories, I and II. The original threat categories produced by the Ministry of Environment were developed to provide a standard for specifying animals and plants in danger of extinction and has been influential sources of information used in species conservation in Korea. However, the criteria by Ministry of Environment were applied to the whole taxa only by regional boundaries, especially in South Korea, rather than international context, and it also lacked an explicit framework that was necessary to ensure repeatability among taxa because of the absence of quantitative criteria to measure the likelihood of extinction. The World Conservation Union (IUCN) has developed quantitative criteria for assessing the conservation status of species. The threatened species categories, the 2000 IUCN Red List, proposed by SSC (Species Survival Commission) of IUCN have become widely recognized internationally. Details of threatened Korean plants, identified by applying the IUCN threat categories and definitions, were listed and analyzed. The number of species identified as threatened was only 34 out of 64 taxa (48.4%), while the rest of taxa were rejected from the original lists. Many of the species (51.6%, 33 taxa) excluded from the original list proposed by Ministry of Environment do not qualify as Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable because these taxa were widely distributed either in Japan or in China/far eastern Russia and there is no evidence of substantial decline in these countries. An evaluation of taxa in Korea has been carried out only based on subjective views and qualitative data, rather than quantitative scientific data, such as rates of decline, distribution range size, population size, and risk of extinction. Therefore, the national lists undermine the credibility of threatened species lists and invite misuse, which have been raised by other cases, qualitative estimate of risk, political influence, uneven taxonomic or geographical coverage. The increasing emphasis on international responsibilities means that global scale is becoming more significant. The current listings by Environment of Ministry of Korea should be challenged, and the government should seek to facilitate the resolution of disagreements. Especially the list should be flexible enough to handle uncertainty and also incorporates detailed, quantitative data. It is suggested that the highest priorities for the Red List should be given to endemic species in Korea first. After setting up the list of endemic species to Korea, quantitative data on population size and structure, distributional range, rated of decline, and habitat fragmentation should be collected as one of long term projects for the Red list categories. Transparency and accountability are the most important key factors. Also, species assessors are named and data sources referenced are required for the future objective evaluations on Korean plant taxa.

The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.4
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    • pp.43-71
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    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

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