• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty

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Informative Role of Marketing Activity in Financial Market: Evidence from Analysts' Forecast Dispersion

  • Oh, Yun Kyung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.53-77
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    • 2013
  • As advertising and promotions are categorized as operating expenses, managers tend to reduce marketing budget to improve their short term profitability. Gauging the value and accountability of marketing spending is therefore considered as a major research priority in marketing. To respond this call, recent studies have documented that financial market reacts positively to a firm's marketing activity or marketing related outcomes such as brand equity and customer satisfaction. However, prior studies focus on the relation of marketing variable and financial market variables. This study suggests a channel about how marketing activity increases firm valuation. Specifically, we propose that a firm's marketing activity increases the level of the firm's product market information and thereby the dispersion in financial analysts' earnings forecasts decreases. With less uncertainty about the firm's future prospect, the firm's managers and shareholders have less information asymmetry, which reduces the firm's cost of capital and thereby increases the valuation of the firm. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to examine how informational benefits can mediate the effect of marketing activity on firm value. To test whether marketing activity contributes to increase in firm value by mitigating information asymmetry, this study employs a longitudinal data which contains 12,824 firm-year observations with 2,337 distinct firms from 1981 to 2006. Firm value is measured by Tobin's Q and one-year-ahead buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR). Following prior literature, dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts is used as a proxy for the information gap between management and shareholders. For model specification, to identify mediating effect, the three-step regression approach is adopted. All models are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to test the statistical significance of the mediating effect. The analysis shows that marketing intensity has a significant negative relationship with dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts. After including the mediator variable about analyst dispersion, the effect of marketing intensity on firm value drops from 1.199 (p < .01) to 1.130 (p < .01) in Tobin's Q model and the same effect drops from .192 (p < .01) to .188 (p < .01) in BHAR model. The results suggest that analysts' forecast dispersion partially accounts for the positive effect of marketing on firm valuation. Additionally, the same analysis was conducted with an alternative dependent variable (forecast accuracy) and a marketing metric (advertising intensity). The analysis supports the robustness of the main results. In sum, the results provide empirical evidence that marketing activity can increase shareholder value by mitigating problem of information asymmetry in the capital market. The findings have important implications for managers. First, managers should be cognizant of the role of marketing activity in providing information to the financial market as well as to the consumer market. Thus, managers should take into account investors' reaction when they design marketing communication messages for reducing the cost of capital. Second, this study shows a channel on how marketing creates shareholder value and highlights the accountability of marketing. In addition to the direct impact of marketing on firm value, an indirect channel by reducing information asymmetry should be considered. Potentially, marketing managers can justify their spending from the perspective of increasing long-term shareholder value.

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Research on optimal safety ship-route based on artificial intelligence analysis using marine environment prediction (해양환경 예측정보를 활용한 인공지능 분석 기반의 최적 안전항로 연구)

  • Dae-yaoung Eeom;Bang-hee Lee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.100-103
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    • 2023
  • Recently, development of maritime autonomoust surface ships and eco-friendly ships, production and evaluation research considering various marine environments is needed in the field of optimal routes as the demand for accurate and detailed real-time marine environment prediction information expands. An algorithm that can calculate the optimal route while reducing the risk of the marine environment and uncertainty in energy consumption in smart ships was developed in 2 stages. In the first stage, a profile was created by combining marine environmental information with ship location and status information within the Automatic Ship Identification System(AIS). In the second stage, a model was developed that could define the marine environment energy map using the configured profile results, A regression equation was generated by applying Random Forest among machine learning techniques to reflect about 600,000 data. The Random Forest coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.89, showing very high reliability. The Dijikstra shortest path algorithm was applied to the marine environment prediction at June 1 to 3, 2021, and to calculate the optimal safety route and express it on the map. The route calculated by the random forest regression model was streamlined, and the route was derived considering the state of the marine environment prediction information. The concept of route calculation based on real-time marine environment prediction information in this study is expected to be able to calculate a realistic and safe route that reflects the movement tendency of ships, and to be expanded to a range of economic, safety, and eco-friendliness evaluation models in the future.

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The Effect of Market Orientation of Knowledge-Based Service Suppliers on the Sourcing Process of Service Recipients (지식기반서비스 공급자의 시장지향성이 수혜자의 소싱과정에 미치는 영향)

  • Noh, Jeonpyo
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.49-76
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    • 2006
  • This study investigates the effect of market orientation of knowledge-based service suppliers on the sourcing process of service recipients. Focusing on a dyadic relationship between a supplier and a buyer, this study proposed a conceptual model of market orientation incorporating the antecedents and consequences of market orientation. This study empirically tested research hypotheses delineated from the conceptual framework. The present study revealed that the impact on the buyer's performance of the supplier's customer and competitor orientation turned out to be more influential than that of inter-departmental cooperation. Also these two dimensions of customer and competitor orientation played a positive role in reducing buyer's perceived risk and uncertainty related to the evaluation of services out-sourced. Interestingly enough, the supplier's perceived importance on the distance between the buyer and supplier remains important especially when the degree of buyer's market orientation is high. This finding is somewhat contrary to the fact that the geographic location of the buyer becomes less important for the internet-based B2B service providers. Based on the findings, this study suggested managerial implications and broadened the scope of academic research in the field of business services. Future research directions and the limitations of this study are also discussed.

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The Impact of Enviromental Uncertainty and Logistics Resources Capabilities on Logistics Performance through Relational Norms and Logistics Service in the Industrial Products (산업재 물류에서 환경 불확실성과 물류자원역량이 관계규범과 물류서비스를 통하여 물류성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Chun, Dal-Young;Kim, Hong-Sun
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.105-132
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    • 2006
  • The major purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of environmental uncertainties and logistics resources capabilities mediated by relational norms and logistics services on logistics performance in the industrial products. The 272 data were collected from the key informants who were working at the logistics-related departments in the H Heavy Industries & Construction and HSD Engine. The following results were verified using structural equation modeling. First, environmental uncertainties such as dynamism and heterogeneity unexpectedly had insignificant effects on relational norms such as information exchange and flexibility and logistics services such as product availability and on-time delivery. Second, logistics resource capabilities showed unique effects based upon its component's characteristics. For example, Logistics Information Systems did not have direct impact on logistics services but had indirect effect on logistics services via relational norms. On the other hand, logistics resources such as logistics specific assets and transportation service competencies had direct impact on logistics services but not on relational norms. Third, relational norms between transaction partners significantly affected logistics services but had insignificant effects on logistics performance such as logistics costs reduction and delivery qualities. Fourth, consistent with several studies, excellent logistics services between industrial purchaser and suppliers based upon relational norms did have significant effect on logistics performance such as delivery consistency and delivery qualities. Finally, the empirical results in this study could be strategic logistics management guidelines based upon the theoretical relationships among the environmental uncertainties, logistics information systems, logistics resources, relational norms, logistics services, and logistics performance.

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Exploratory Study on the Application of Blockchain for ESG Management in the Distribution Industry (유통업계 ESG 경영을 위한 블록체인 도입 탐색적 연구)

  • Yeji Choi;Jaewook Byun;Jiwon Moon;Hangbae Chang
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.217-237
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    • 2023
  • Recently, in the face of successive and unexpected global economic risks, ESG(Environmental, Social, and Governance) management has risen as an essential survival strategy for businesses. Particularly, the supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic have added to the uncertainty of risks, heightening the importance of ESG management in the distribution industry. In this context, the role of blockchain technology in strengthening and managing the connection between the distribution industry and ESG management has become increasingly significant. While there have been extensive proposals for business models that integrate blockchain technology into distribution, few studies have specifically focused on the feasibility and effectiveness of applying blockchain to ESG management in this field. Therefore, this study analyzed the relationship between blockchain and ESG management in the distribution industry by employing association analysis, a text mining technique, on Korean academic research. Through this, the study confirmed the possibility of implementing blockchain in the distribution industry's ESG management and presented keywords to guide future research directions. The findings obtained from this study are expected to be utilized as foundational research for future studies in constructing blockchain-based business models for ESG management in the distribution industry.

A Conceptual Approach for the Effects of COVID-19 on Digital Transformation

  • Fu, Jia;Kim, Injai
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.211-227
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    • 2023
  • Purpose In the contemporary landscape, marked by the enduring impact of COVID-19 and the recent disruptions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine, the purpose of this study is to navigate the era characterized by pervasive risk and uncertainty. Specifically, the study aims to dissect the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on digital transformation, exploring the factors influencing this process and considering the multifaceted dynamics at play. The focus extends to the post-COVID-19 landscape, scrutinizing the implications and meanings of digital transformation both before and after the pandemic. Additionally, the study delves into future digital trends, with particular attention to climate and environmental issues, emphasizing corporate responsibilities in averting crises similar to COVID-19. The overarching goal is to provide a holistic perspective, shedding light on both positive and negative facets of digital transformation, and advocating for regulatory enhancements and legal frameworks conducive to a balanced and resilient digital future. Design/methodology/approach This study employs a comprehensive approach to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on digital transformation. It considers various facets, such as smart devices reshaping daily routines, transformative changes in corporate ecosystems, and the adaptation of government institutions to the digital era within the broader context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The analysis extends to the post-COVID-19 landscape, examining the implications and meanings of digital transformation. Future digital trends, especially those related to climate and environmental issues, are prognosticated. The methodology involves a proactive exploration of challenges associated with digital transformation, aiming to advocate for regulatory enhancements and legal frameworks that contribute to a balanced and resilient digital future. Findings The findings of this study reveal that the digital economy has gained momentum, accelerated by the proliferation of non-face-to-face industries in response to social distancing imperatives during the COVID-19 pandemic. Digital transformation, both preceding and succeeding the onset of the pandemic, has precipitated noteworthy shifts in various aspects of daily life. However, challenges persist, and the study highlights factors that either bolster or hinder the transformative process. In the post-COVID-19 era, corporate responsibilities in averting crises, particularly those resembling the pandemic, take center stage. The study emphasizes the need for a holistic perspective, acknowledging both positive and negative facets of digital transformation. Additionally, it calls for proactive measures, including regulatory enhancements and legal frameworks, to ensure a balanced and resilient digital future.

Comprehensive Understanding about Drop-Out Adolescents in Korea (우리나라 학업중단청소년에 대한 이해)

  • Myoung-Ja Keum
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.14 no.1_spc
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    • pp.299-317
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    • 2008
  • The school drop-out among the youth has grown to become a serious social problem since about 2000 and calls for an attention to its seriousness. Therefore, this study reviewed the statitistical reports and the previous empirical findings on the school drop-out and integrated to establish a comprehensive understanding of this social phenomenon. The main concepts and terminologies on school drop-out, the current statistics, the possible causal factors and the usual trajectory the youth take after dropping-out of school were discussed to conceptualize the issue. Analyses indicated 12 characteristics of the students who dropped out of school. Those 12 characteristics were restructured according to the ecological conceptual model. The social instability and the financial crisis in the 1990's has eroded the stability of the primary environments of adolescents such as family and school. The family breakdowns from divorce and other reasons weakened psychological and financial support for adolescents. The diminished authority of teachers and school over students exposed conflicts between teacher and students, students' loss of purpose and interest in academic attainment. The adolescents showed emotional reponses like increased level of depression, helplessness, aggression, indicated cognitive reponses such as the loss of purpose and interest in studying, a heightened sense of uncertainty of the future, and behavioral responses like sexual acting out behaviors, and bullying. The unmet psychological needs of adolescents result in run-away and school drop-out behaviors, which in turn progress into juvenile delinquency as the society fails to provide adequate and appropriate guidance and interventions. The intervention strategies at the national level were proposed and the limitations of the study were discussed.

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Review of Thermodynamic Sorption Model for Radionuclides on Bentonite Clay (벤토나이트와 방사성 핵종의 열역학적 수착 모델 연구)

  • Jeonghwan Hwang;Jung-Woo Kim;Weon Shik Han;Won Woo Yoon;Jiyong Lee;Seonggyu Choi
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.5
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    • pp.515-532
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    • 2023
  • Bentonite, predominantly consists of expandable clay minerals, is considered to be the suitable buffering material in high-level radioactive waste disposal repository due to its large swelling property and low permeability. Additionally, the bentonite has large cation exchange capacity and specific surface area, and thus, it effectively retards the transport of leaked radionuclides to surrounding environments. This study aims to review the thermodynamic sorption models for four radionuclides (U, Am, Se, and Eu) and eight bentonites. Then, the thermodynamic sorption models and optimized sorption parameters were precisely analyzed by considering the experimental conditions in previous study. Here, the optimized sorption parameters showed that thermodynamic sorption models were related to experimental conditions such as types and concentrations of radionuclides, ionic strength, major competing cation, temperature, solid-to-liquid ratio, carbonate species, and mineralogical properties of bentonite. These results implied that the thermodynamic sorption models suggested by the optimization at specific experimental conditions had large uncertainty for application to various environmental conditions.

Determination of Exposure during Handling of 125I Seed Using Thermoluminescent Dosimeter and Monte Carlo Method Based on Computational Phantom

  • Hosein Poorbaygi;Seyed Mostafa Salimi;Falamarz Torkzadeh;Saeid Hamidi;Shahab Sheibani
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.197-203
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    • 2023
  • Background: The thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) and Monte Carlo (MC) dosimetry are carried out to determine the occupational dose for personnel in the handling of 125I seed sources. Materials and Methods: TLDs were placed in different layers of the Alderson-Rando phantom in the thyroid, lung and also eyes and skin surface. An 125I seed source was prepared and its activity was measured using a dose calibrator and was placed at two distances of 20 and 50 cm from the Alderson-Rando phantom. In addition, the Monte Carlo N-Particle Extended (MCNPX 2.6.0) code and a computational phantom with a lattice-based geometry were used for organ dose calculations. Results and Discussion: The comparison of TLD and MC results in the thyroid and lung is consistent. Although the relative difference of MC dosimetry to TLD for the eyes was between 4% and 13% and for the skin between 19% and 23%, because of the existence of a higher uncertainty regarding TLD positioning in the eye and skin, these inaccuracies can also be acceptable. The isodose distribution was calculated in the cross-section of the head phantom when the 125I seed was at two distances of 20 and 50 cm and it showed that the greatest dose reduction was observed for the eyes, skin, thyroid, and lungs, respectively. The results of MC dosimetry indicated that for near the head positions (distance of 20 cm) the absorbed dose rates for the eye lens, eye and skin were 78.1±2.3, 59.0±1.8, and 10.7±0.7 µGy/mCi/hr, respectively. Furthermore, we found that a 30 cm displacement for the 125I seed reduced the eye and skin doses by at least 3- and 2-fold, respectively. Conclusion: Using a computational phantom to monitor the dose to the sensitive organs (eye and skin) for personnel involved in the handling of 125I seed sources can be an accurate and inexpensive method.

Development of Simultaneous Analysis for Multiple Agricultural Pesticides in Raw Milk Products using GC-MS/MS (GC-MS/MS를 이용한 원유 원료 중 농약 동시분석법 확립)

  • Young Nae Choi;Yoon ho Shin;Hwangeui Cho;Jung Bok Kim
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.420-429
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    • 2023
  • GC-MS/MS using liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) and C18 cartridges was used to identify and quantify levels of chlorpyrifos, chlorpyrifos-methyl, cypermethrin, deltamethrin and permethrin in bulk raw milk. A calibration curve spanning 10 ng/mL to 200 ng/mL was obtained with a satisfactory correlation coefficient of 0.99. The limits of detection (LOD) and limits of quantitation (LOQ) for chlorpyrifos, chlorpyrifos-methyl, cypermethrin, deltamethrin, and permethrin in the matrix ranged from 0.06 to 1.81 ng/mL and 0.19 to 6.04 ng/mL, respectively. The recoveries of 5 pesticides from spiked samples at 37.5-125 ng/mL ranged from 86.1 to 102.1%. The measurement of uncertainty of the GC-MS/MS method for these five pesticides was developed based on the analytical process and quantification. An analysis method that is easier and faster than the method specified in the Korean food standards codes for analyzing these five pesticides in raw material milk was developed. Moreover, the analytical method for chlorpyrifos, chlorpyrifos-methyl, cypermethrin, deltamethrin, and permethrin in bulk raw milk by GC-MS/MS was established.