• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty

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Drought Frequency Analysis Using Cluster Analysis and Bivariate Probability Distribution (군집분석과 이변량 확률분포를 이용한 가뭄빈도해석)

  • Yoo, Ji Young;Kim, Tae-Woong;Kim, Sangdan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.6B
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    • pp.599-606
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    • 2010
  • Due to the short period of precipitation data in Korea, the uncertainty of drought analysis is inevitable from a point frequency analysis. So it is desired to introduce a regional drought frequency analysis. This study first extracted drought characteristics from 3-month and 12-month moving average rainfalls which represent short and long-term droughts, respectively. Then, the homogeneous regions were distinguished by performing a principal component analysis and cluster analysis. The Korean peninsula was classified into five regions based on drought characteristics. Finally, this study applied the bivariate frequency analysis using a kernel density function to quantify the regionalized drought characteristics. Based on the bivariate drought frequency curves, the drought severities of five regions were evaluated for durations of 2, 5, 10, and 20 months, and return periods of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years. As a result, the largest severity of drought was occurred in the Lower Geum River basin, in the Youngsan River basin, and over in the southern coast of Korea.

Quantitative Deterioration and Maintenance Profiles of Typical Steel Bridges based on Response Surface Method (응답면 기법을 이용한 강교의 열화 및 보수보강 정량화 이력 모델)

  • Park, Seung-Hyun;Park, Kyung Hoon;Kim, Hee Joong;Kong, Jung-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6A
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    • pp.765-778
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    • 2008
  • Performance Profiles are essential to predict the performance variation over time for the bridge management system (BMS) based on risk management. In general, condition profiles based on experts opinion and/or visual inspection records have been used widely because obtaining profiles based on real performance is not easy. However, those condition profiles usually don't give a good consistency to the safety of bridges, causing practical problems for the effective bridge management. The accuracy of performance evaluation is directly related to the accuracy of BMS. The reliability of the evaluation is important to produce the optimal solution for distributing maintenance budget reasonably. However, conventional methods of bridge assessment are not suitable for a more sophisticated decision making procedure. In this study, a method to compute quantitative performance profiles has been proposed to overcome the limitations of those conventional models. In Bridge Management Systems, the main role of performance profiles is to compute and predict the performance of bridges subject to lifetime activities with uncertainty. Therefore, the computation time for obtaining an optimal maintenance scenario is closely related to the efficiency of the performance profile. In this study, the Response Surface Method (RSM) based on independent and important design variables is developed for the rapid computation. Steel box bridges have been investigated because the number of independent design variables can be reduced significantly due to the high dependency between design variables.

The Relationship between Enterance Exam Stress and Oral Care Self-Efficacy in 3rd year Girl High School Students (인문계 3학년 여자 고등학생의 입시스트레스와 구강관리 자기효능감과의 관련성)

  • Cho, Hye-Eun;Chung, Kyung-Yi
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.551-561
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between entrance exam stress and oral care self-efficacy in girls high school. From June to July 2018, A self-reported questionnaire was administered to 192 high school students in the G area. The data were analyzed for independent t-test, one-way ANOVA and Pearson's correlation coefficient by using SPSS/WIN 21.0 program. Among the sub-sectors of entrance exam stress, exam tension/poor was the highest with 3.07 points, followed by Insufficient spare time stress 2.83 points, future uncertainty stress 2.57 points, and parent pressure stress 2.44 points. the variables related to exam tension/poor stress were academic performance (p<.01), family income level (p<.05), Subjective oral health status(p<.05), and daily brushing frequency(p<.01). The highest level of oral care self-efficacy was 3.13 points for brushing self-efficacy, followed by dental visits 2.80 points and interdental hygiene 2.64 points. As a result of analyzing the general characteristics and oral care self-efficacy, subjects related to brushing self-efficacy were subjective oral health status, caries snacking(daily), and caries drinks(daily)(p<.01). There were negative correlations between entrance exam stress and oral care self-efficacy. The higher the entrance stress, the lower the oral care self-efficacy. To prevent oral disease and increase oral care self-efficacy of students with high entrance stress, it is necessary to provide school oral health education programs that can facilitate oral health behaviors.

An Examination of the Effectiveness of Crisis Response Strategies for Repairing Competence and Integrity Violations

  • Sung, Yen-yi;Lee, Han-joon;Park, Jong-chul
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.129-154
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    • 2013
  • Product-harm crises, which are connected to defective or dangerous products, are perceived as the most common threats to a company. Product harm crises can distort long standing favorable equality perceptions, tarnish a company's reputation, cause major revenue and market-share losses, lead to costly product recalls, and devastate a carefully nurtured brand equity. However, in spite of the devastating impact of product-harm crises, little systematic research exists to asses its marketing consequences. So, the purpose of this study is to investigate how Koreans react to the crisis response in the aftermath of different crises(competence violation vs. integrity violation) and inspire additional research in crisis communication. This study has three main findings which run counter to the assumptions of Kim et al.(2007). Namely, the current study expands on the research of Kim et al. (2004, 2007) by examining how companies repair customers' trust and corporate attitude after crises. Different from previous studies, this study assumes that apology for an integrity-based crisis is the most appropriate way to repair consumer trust and corporate attitude. As for competence-based crisis, similarly, apology for competence-based crisis can be more successful repairing consumer trust and corporate attitude. Concerning silence strategy, remaining silent dose not admit or deny guilt right away, but instead of asking the perceiver to withhold judgment, suggesting that, silence could be expected to be superior to apology but inferior to denial. Finally, apology for competence violation will be expected to bemore effective than apology for integrity violation. Research conceptual model was as follows: According to the results, apology is found to be the most effective strategy to repair corporate attitude no matter the crisis is perceived as a violation of competence or integrity. Second, company may consider keeping silent as a desirable response because they does not admit nor deny responsibility but ask the public to withhold judgment. However, the result of this study shows that, in the overall crisis situations, silence strategy did not differ significantly from the denial strategy, which suggested that the public wants explanation instead of uncertainty. Third, there was the interaction effect between crisis type and crisis response strategies. In this study, apology is more effective for the competence violated situation in terms of regaining consumer trust and repairing their attitude toward company, while the apology's effectiveness is lower for the integrity-violated situation. More specifically, when the crisis is perceived due to company's lack of ability(competence violation), consumer's trust belief and attitude toward the company is more easily to repair when the company issued a sincere apology. Damaged product is perceived less intentional so participants are more likely to give the company second chance when they apology to the public. By contrast, exaggerated advertisement(integrity violation) is perceived intentionally and thus makes participants angrier toward the accused company. Although apology is perceived as the most effective strategy, when issuing apology, it also means the company admitted their intention. Therefore, in this kind of crisis situation, trust repair needs not only a sincere apology but additional efforts.

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Informative Role of Marketing Activity in Financial Market: Evidence from Analysts' Forecast Dispersion

  • Oh, Yun Kyung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.53-77
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    • 2013
  • As advertising and promotions are categorized as operating expenses, managers tend to reduce marketing budget to improve their short term profitability. Gauging the value and accountability of marketing spending is therefore considered as a major research priority in marketing. To respond this call, recent studies have documented that financial market reacts positively to a firm's marketing activity or marketing related outcomes such as brand equity and customer satisfaction. However, prior studies focus on the relation of marketing variable and financial market variables. This study suggests a channel about how marketing activity increases firm valuation. Specifically, we propose that a firm's marketing activity increases the level of the firm's product market information and thereby the dispersion in financial analysts' earnings forecasts decreases. With less uncertainty about the firm's future prospect, the firm's managers and shareholders have less information asymmetry, which reduces the firm's cost of capital and thereby increases the valuation of the firm. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to examine how informational benefits can mediate the effect of marketing activity on firm value. To test whether marketing activity contributes to increase in firm value by mitigating information asymmetry, this study employs a longitudinal data which contains 12,824 firm-year observations with 2,337 distinct firms from 1981 to 2006. Firm value is measured by Tobin's Q and one-year-ahead buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR). Following prior literature, dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts is used as a proxy for the information gap between management and shareholders. For model specification, to identify mediating effect, the three-step regression approach is adopted. All models are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to test the statistical significance of the mediating effect. The analysis shows that marketing intensity has a significant negative relationship with dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts. After including the mediator variable about analyst dispersion, the effect of marketing intensity on firm value drops from 1.199 (p < .01) to 1.130 (p < .01) in Tobin's Q model and the same effect drops from .192 (p < .01) to .188 (p < .01) in BHAR model. The results suggest that analysts' forecast dispersion partially accounts for the positive effect of marketing on firm valuation. Additionally, the same analysis was conducted with an alternative dependent variable (forecast accuracy) and a marketing metric (advertising intensity). The analysis supports the robustness of the main results. In sum, the results provide empirical evidence that marketing activity can increase shareholder value by mitigating problem of information asymmetry in the capital market. The findings have important implications for managers. First, managers should be cognizant of the role of marketing activity in providing information to the financial market as well as to the consumer market. Thus, managers should take into account investors' reaction when they design marketing communication messages for reducing the cost of capital. Second, this study shows a channel on how marketing creates shareholder value and highlights the accountability of marketing. In addition to the direct impact of marketing on firm value, an indirect channel by reducing information asymmetry should be considered. Potentially, marketing managers can justify their spending from the perspective of increasing long-term shareholder value.

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Research on optimal safety ship-route based on artificial intelligence analysis using marine environment prediction (해양환경 예측정보를 활용한 인공지능 분석 기반의 최적 안전항로 연구)

  • Dae-yaoung Eeom;Bang-hee Lee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.100-103
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    • 2023
  • Recently, development of maritime autonomoust surface ships and eco-friendly ships, production and evaluation research considering various marine environments is needed in the field of optimal routes as the demand for accurate and detailed real-time marine environment prediction information expands. An algorithm that can calculate the optimal route while reducing the risk of the marine environment and uncertainty in energy consumption in smart ships was developed in 2 stages. In the first stage, a profile was created by combining marine environmental information with ship location and status information within the Automatic Ship Identification System(AIS). In the second stage, a model was developed that could define the marine environment energy map using the configured profile results, A regression equation was generated by applying Random Forest among machine learning techniques to reflect about 600,000 data. The Random Forest coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.89, showing very high reliability. The Dijikstra shortest path algorithm was applied to the marine environment prediction at June 1 to 3, 2021, and to calculate the optimal safety route and express it on the map. The route calculated by the random forest regression model was streamlined, and the route was derived considering the state of the marine environment prediction information. The concept of route calculation based on real-time marine environment prediction information in this study is expected to be able to calculate a realistic and safe route that reflects the movement tendency of ships, and to be expanded to a range of economic, safety, and eco-friendliness evaluation models in the future.

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The Effect of Market Orientation of Knowledge-Based Service Suppliers on the Sourcing Process of Service Recipients (지식기반서비스 공급자의 시장지향성이 수혜자의 소싱과정에 미치는 영향)

  • Noh, Jeonpyo
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.49-76
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    • 2006
  • This study investigates the effect of market orientation of knowledge-based service suppliers on the sourcing process of service recipients. Focusing on a dyadic relationship between a supplier and a buyer, this study proposed a conceptual model of market orientation incorporating the antecedents and consequences of market orientation. This study empirically tested research hypotheses delineated from the conceptual framework. The present study revealed that the impact on the buyer's performance of the supplier's customer and competitor orientation turned out to be more influential than that of inter-departmental cooperation. Also these two dimensions of customer and competitor orientation played a positive role in reducing buyer's perceived risk and uncertainty related to the evaluation of services out-sourced. Interestingly enough, the supplier's perceived importance on the distance between the buyer and supplier remains important especially when the degree of buyer's market orientation is high. This finding is somewhat contrary to the fact that the geographic location of the buyer becomes less important for the internet-based B2B service providers. Based on the findings, this study suggested managerial implications and broadened the scope of academic research in the field of business services. Future research directions and the limitations of this study are also discussed.

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The Impact of Enviromental Uncertainty and Logistics Resources Capabilities on Logistics Performance through Relational Norms and Logistics Service in the Industrial Products (산업재 물류에서 환경 불확실성과 물류자원역량이 관계규범과 물류서비스를 통하여 물류성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Chun, Dal-Young;Kim, Hong-Sun
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.105-132
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    • 2006
  • The major purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of environmental uncertainties and logistics resources capabilities mediated by relational norms and logistics services on logistics performance in the industrial products. The 272 data were collected from the key informants who were working at the logistics-related departments in the H Heavy Industries & Construction and HSD Engine. The following results were verified using structural equation modeling. First, environmental uncertainties such as dynamism and heterogeneity unexpectedly had insignificant effects on relational norms such as information exchange and flexibility and logistics services such as product availability and on-time delivery. Second, logistics resource capabilities showed unique effects based upon its component's characteristics. For example, Logistics Information Systems did not have direct impact on logistics services but had indirect effect on logistics services via relational norms. On the other hand, logistics resources such as logistics specific assets and transportation service competencies had direct impact on logistics services but not on relational norms. Third, relational norms between transaction partners significantly affected logistics services but had insignificant effects on logistics performance such as logistics costs reduction and delivery qualities. Fourth, consistent with several studies, excellent logistics services between industrial purchaser and suppliers based upon relational norms did have significant effect on logistics performance such as delivery consistency and delivery qualities. Finally, the empirical results in this study could be strategic logistics management guidelines based upon the theoretical relationships among the environmental uncertainties, logistics information systems, logistics resources, relational norms, logistics services, and logistics performance.

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Exploratory Study on the Application of Blockchain for ESG Management in the Distribution Industry (유통업계 ESG 경영을 위한 블록체인 도입 탐색적 연구)

  • Yeji Choi;Jaewook Byun;Jiwon Moon;Hangbae Chang
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.217-237
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    • 2023
  • Recently, in the face of successive and unexpected global economic risks, ESG(Environmental, Social, and Governance) management has risen as an essential survival strategy for businesses. Particularly, the supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic have added to the uncertainty of risks, heightening the importance of ESG management in the distribution industry. In this context, the role of blockchain technology in strengthening and managing the connection between the distribution industry and ESG management has become increasingly significant. While there have been extensive proposals for business models that integrate blockchain technology into distribution, few studies have specifically focused on the feasibility and effectiveness of applying blockchain to ESG management in this field. Therefore, this study analyzed the relationship between blockchain and ESG management in the distribution industry by employing association analysis, a text mining technique, on Korean academic research. Through this, the study confirmed the possibility of implementing blockchain in the distribution industry's ESG management and presented keywords to guide future research directions. The findings obtained from this study are expected to be utilized as foundational research for future studies in constructing blockchain-based business models for ESG management in the distribution industry.

A Conceptual Approach for the Effects of COVID-19 on Digital Transformation

  • Fu, Jia;Kim, Injai
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.211-227
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    • 2023
  • Purpose In the contemporary landscape, marked by the enduring impact of COVID-19 and the recent disruptions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine, the purpose of this study is to navigate the era characterized by pervasive risk and uncertainty. Specifically, the study aims to dissect the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on digital transformation, exploring the factors influencing this process and considering the multifaceted dynamics at play. The focus extends to the post-COVID-19 landscape, scrutinizing the implications and meanings of digital transformation both before and after the pandemic. Additionally, the study delves into future digital trends, with particular attention to climate and environmental issues, emphasizing corporate responsibilities in averting crises similar to COVID-19. The overarching goal is to provide a holistic perspective, shedding light on both positive and negative facets of digital transformation, and advocating for regulatory enhancements and legal frameworks conducive to a balanced and resilient digital future. Design/methodology/approach This study employs a comprehensive approach to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on digital transformation. It considers various facets, such as smart devices reshaping daily routines, transformative changes in corporate ecosystems, and the adaptation of government institutions to the digital era within the broader context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The analysis extends to the post-COVID-19 landscape, examining the implications and meanings of digital transformation. Future digital trends, especially those related to climate and environmental issues, are prognosticated. The methodology involves a proactive exploration of challenges associated with digital transformation, aiming to advocate for regulatory enhancements and legal frameworks that contribute to a balanced and resilient digital future. Findings The findings of this study reveal that the digital economy has gained momentum, accelerated by the proliferation of non-face-to-face industries in response to social distancing imperatives during the COVID-19 pandemic. Digital transformation, both preceding and succeeding the onset of the pandemic, has precipitated noteworthy shifts in various aspects of daily life. However, challenges persist, and the study highlights factors that either bolster or hinder the transformative process. In the post-COVID-19 era, corporate responsibilities in averting crises, particularly those resembling the pandemic, take center stage. The study emphasizes the need for a holistic perspective, acknowledging both positive and negative facets of digital transformation. Additionally, it calls for proactive measures, including regulatory enhancements and legal frameworks, to ensure a balanced and resilient digital future.