• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty/Sensitivity Analysis

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Development of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment Framework for an Interim Dry Storage Facility Subjected to an Aircraft Crash Using Best-Estimate Structural Analysis

  • Almomani, Belal;Jang, Dongchan;Lee, Sanghoon;Kang, Hyun Gook
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.411-425
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    • 2017
  • Using a probabilistic safety assessment, a risk evaluation framework for an aircraft crash into an interim spent fuel storage facility is presented. Damage evaluation of a detailed generic cask model in a simplified building structure under an aircraft impact is discussed through a numerical structural analysis and an analytical fragility assessment. Sequences of the impact scenario are shown in a developed event tree, with uncertainties considered in the impact analysis and failure probabilities calculated. To evaluate the influence of parameters relevant to design safety, risks are estimated for three specification levels of cask and storage facility structures. The proposed assessment procedure includes the determination of the loading parameters, reference impact scenario, structural response analyses of facility walls, cask containment, and fuel assemblies, and a radiological consequence analysis with dose-risk estimation. The risk results for the proposed scenario in this study are expected to be small relative to those of design basis accidents for best-estimated conservative values. The importance of this framework is seen in its flexibility to evaluate the capability of the facility to withstand an aircraft impact and in its ability to anticipate potential realistic risks; the framework also provides insight into epistemic uncertainty in the available data and into the sensitivity of the design parameters for future research.

The Influence of High School Students' Entrance Exam Stress on Their Mental Health (대입 준비생의 입시스트레스가 정신건강에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hee-Ja;Park, Yung-Soo
    • The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2007
  • This study aimed at investigating the level of high school students' entrance exam stress and mental health first and also investigating if the entrance exam stress and mental health are related to gender, grade, character type, parenting style and economic status. This is expected to be used as a fundamental data for the development of health education program on high school students' stress and diagnosis of their mental health. To achieve those goals above, the questionnaire was used and the sample consisted of 600 students from general high schools in a large city, C and in a smaller city, A in Chungnam province through questionnaire and the conclusion, which was based on 582 proper questionnaires from the 600 questionnaires, through variable analysis, correlation analysis and multi-regression, is below. First, according to the information provided by respondents, the result showed the relationship between those background variables and the entrance exam stress and mental health level. As the students are more introverted and the parenting style is more authoritative, the entrance exam stress is higher and the mental health level is higher as the parenting style is more authoritative and the economic status is lower. In gender, the entrance exam stress level was high for male students in regard to parents pressure. For female students, it was due to the insufficient free time. In test performance, the good grade group showed high stress level when they don't have enough free time and the poor grade group showed high stress level when they have test tension and poor test performance. In character style, the introverted group showed high stress level in future uncertainty. In parenting style, the authoritative group showed significantly high level in all four sub-factors and there is no significant relationship with the stress level and economic statue. Female students reported higher mental health level than male students in somatization and depression. In academic achievement, the poor grade group showed high level in obsession, fear-anxiety and psychotism. In character style, the introverted group showed high level in sensitivity towards others and depression. And in parenting style, the authoritative group is higher in 9 sub-factors than the other two groups in the factor, economic status. The lower economic status group showed high mental health problem level in this order; in obsession, sensitivity towards others, depression, paranonia and psychotism. Second, the results revealed that there is a significant difference among the groups after comparing and analyzing the relationship between the mental health level according to the three groups, the first, second and third group divided by the degree of entrance exam stress. And the higher the entrance exam stress is, the higher the mental health problem level is. Verification showed that there was obvious difference among the groups. the entrance exam stress was positively correlated with the mental health level. The lack of free time, future uncertainty, test anxiety/poor test performance and parents pressure, these factors, in that order, were correlated with the mental health level. when the prediction variables which influenced on mental health are analyzed, test-anxiety/poor test performance was found to be related to mental health most. And after the factor, test-anxiety, future uncertainty and the lack of free time were listed(ranked), however results did not show any correlation with parents' pressure.

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Determination of Critical Slope Height for Large Open-pit Coal Mine and Analysis of Displacement for Slope failure Prediction (대규모 노천 석탄광산의 한계사면높이 결정과 사면파괴 예측을 위한 계측자료 해석)

  • Jung, Yong-Bok;SunWoo, Choon;Lee, Jong-Beom
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.447-456
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    • 2008
  • Open-pit mine slope design must be carried out from the economical efficiency and stability point of view. The overall slope angle is the primary design variable because of limited support or reinforce options available. In this study, the slope angle and critical slope height of large coal mine located in Pasir, Kalimantan, Indonesia were determined from safety point of view. Failure time prediction based on the monitored displacement using inverse velocity was also conducted to make up fir the uncertainty of the slope design. From the study, critical slope height was calculated as $353{\sim}438m$ under safety factor guideline (SF>1.5) and $30^{\circ}$ overall slope angle but loom is recommended as a critical slope height considering the results of sensitivity analysis of strength parameters. The results of inverse velocity analysis also showed good agreement with field slope cases. Therefore, failure of unstable slope can be roughly detected before real slope failure.

Development of Regression Model to evaluate the indirect costs of Life-Cycle Costs (생애주기비용의 간접비용 산출을 위한 Regression Model의 개발)

  • 조효남;이종순;김충완;박경훈
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2004
  • Though the concept of Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) itself is not new, its effectiveness for planning, design, rehabilitation and maintenance/management of civil infrastructures is becoming increasingly recognized. For the decision problems as in the case of the LCC of plant facilities, equipments, bridge decks, pavements, etc., the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is relatively simple, and thus its practical implementation is rather straightforward. However, when it comes to major infrastructures such as bridge, tunnels, underground facilities, etc., the LCCA problem becomes extremely complex because lack of cost data associated with various direct and indirect losses, and the absence of uncertainty data available for the assessment as well. As a result, the LCC studies have been largely limited only to those relatively simple LCCA problems of planning or conceptual design for making decisions. Accordingly, in the recent years, the researchers have pursued extensive studies on the LCC effectiveness mostly related to LCC models and frameworks for civil infrastructures. Moreover, recently the demand on the practical application of LCC effective decisions in design and maintenance is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Indirction cost is very important on LCC formulation. But that is very difficult and complicate the estimation every LCC. The objective of this paper is to suggest efficient regression model for the estimation of indirect cost approach to the practical application of LCC for the design and rehabilitation of civil. infrastructures considering traffic, traffic network, detour condition, and workzone condition. In this paper, it performed the sensitivity analysis and correlation analysis of parameter for development of regression model of inflection cost.

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An assessment of the applicability of multigroup cross sections generated with Monte Carlo method for fast reactor analysis

  • Lin, Ching-Sheng;Yang, Won Sik
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.12
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    • pp.2733-2742
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents an assessment of applicability of the multigroup cross sections generated with Monte Carlo tools to the fast reactor analysis based on transport calculations. 33-group cross section sets were generated for simple one- (1-D) and two-dimensional (2-D) sodium-cooled fast reactor problems using the SERPENT code and applied to deterministic steady-state and depletion calculations. Relative to the reference continuous-energy SERPENT results, with the transport corrected P0 scattering cross section, the k-eff value was overestimated by 506 and 588 pcm for 1-D and 2-D problems, respectively, since anisotropic scattering is important in fast reactors. When the scattering order was increased to P5, the 1-D and 2-D problem errors were increased to 577 and 643 pcm, respectively. A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with the PERSENT code indicated that these large k-eff errors cannot be attributed to the statistical uncertainties of cross sections and they are likely due to the approximate anisotropic scattering matrices determined by scalar flux weighting. The anisotropic scattering cross sections were alternatively generated using the MC2-3 code and merged with the SERPENT cross sections. The mixed cross section set consistently reduced the errors in k-eff, assembly powers, and nuclide densities. For example, in the 2-D calculation with P3 scattering order, the k-eff error was reduced from 634 pcm to -223 pcm. The maximum error in assembly power was reduced from 2.8% to 0.8% and the RMS error was reduced from 1.4% to 0.4%. The maximum error in the nuclide densities at the end of 12-month depletion that occurred in 237Np was reduced from 3.4% to 1.5%. The errors of the other nuclides are also reduced consistently, for example, from 1.1% to 0.1% for 235U, from 2.2% to 0.7% for 238Pu, and from 1.6% to 0.2% for 241Pu. These results indicate that the scalar flux weighted anisotropic scattering cross sections of SERPENT may not be adequate for application to fast reactors where anisotropic scattering is important.

Sensitivity Analysis of Depletion Parameters for Heat Load Evaluation of PWR Spent Fuel Storage Pool (경수로 사용후핵연료 저장조 열부하 평가를 위한 연소조건 인자 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, In-Young;Lee, Un-Chul
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.237-245
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    • 2011
  • As necessity of safety re-evaluation for spent fuel storage facility has emphasized after the Fukushima accident, accuracy improvement of heat load evaluation has become more important to acquire reliable thermal-hydraulic evaluation results. As groundwork, parametric and sensitivity analyses of various storage conditions for Kori Unit 4 spent fuel storage pool and spent fuel depletion parameters such as axial burnup effect, operation history, and specific heat are conducted using ORIGEN2 code. According to heat load evaluation and parametric sensitivity analyses, decay heat of last discharged fuel comprises maximum 80.42% of total heat load of storage facility and there is a negative correlation between effect of depletion parameters and cooling period. It is determined that specific heat is most influential parameter and operation history is secondly influential parameter. And decay heat of just discharged fuel is varied from 0.34 to 1.66 times of average value and decay heat of 1 year cooled fuel is varied from 0.55 to 1.37 times of average value in accordance with change of specific power. Namely depletion parameters can cause large variation in decay heat calculation of short-term cooled fuel. Therefore application of real operation data instead of user selection value is needed to improve evaluation accuracy. It is expected that these results could be used to improve accuracy of heat load assessment and evaluate uncertainty of calculated heat load.

A Brief Review on Uncertainty Analysis for the WIPP PA (EPA 규제에 대한 WIPP 사이트 성능평가의 불확실성 분석에 관한 검토)

  • 이연명;강철형;한경원
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.52-69
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    • 2002
  • The WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant), located 42km east of Carlsbad, New Mexico (NM), in bedded salt 655m below the surface, is a mined repository constructed by the US DOE for the permanent disposal of transuranic (TRU) wastes generated by activities related to defence of the US since 1970. Its historical disposal operation began in March 1999 following receipt of a final permit from the State of NM after a positive certification decision for the WIPP was issued by the EPA in 1998, as the first licensed facility in the US for the deep geologic disposal of radioactive wastes. The CCA (Compliance Certification Application) for the WIPP that the DOE submitted to the EPA in 1966 was supported by an extensive performance assessment (PA) carried out by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), with so-called 1996 PA. Even though such PA methodologies could be greatly different from the way we consider for HLW disposal in Korea largely due to quite different geologic formations in which repository are likely to be located, a review on lots of works done through the WIPP PA studies could be the most important lessons that we can learn from in view of current situation in Korea where an initial phase of conceptual studies on HLW disposal has been just started. The objective of this art report is an overview of the methodology used in the recent WIPP PA to support the US DOE WIPP CCA and some relevant results completed by SNL.

The Evaluation of Recovery Rate of Radioimmunoassay Using Certified Reference Material (CRM) (인증표준물질(CRM)을 이용한 방사면역측정법의 회수율 평가)

  • Choi, Sung Hee;Shin, Sun Young;Lim, So Hee;Hong, Mee Kyung;Noh, Gyeong Woon;Kim, Jin Eui
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.158-162
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Reference material (RM) is defined as material that is safe and homogeneous enough about specified characteristic that is made with a purpose of using test of measurement or nominal characteristic. Certified reference material (CRM), which is issued by authorized organization, is defined as reference material that provides characteristic value, link uncertainty and retroactivity. The purpose of this paper was to evaluate recovery of radioimmunoassay by Certified Reference Material enclosed with a certificate and therefore to enhance reliability of test. Materials and Methods: WHO certified reference material is purchased from NIBSC (National Institute for Biological Standard and Control, United Kingdom) and made of 3 levels that are C-1 (low concentration), C-2 (medium concentration) and C-3 (high concentration) and measured for kit at the Seoul National University Hospital. Recovery rate is evaluated after measurement at four different days. Results: Recovery rate results using WHO certified reference material are T4 90%, Ferritin 88%, PSA 94%, Prolactin 99%, AFP 94% and TSH 93%. Conclusion: A procedure that appropriate accuracy, precision, specificity, sensitivity, reproducibility, and validate on the subject of kit for radioimmunoassay is essential. Recovery rate assay as extraction efficiency of analysis process is percent about already measuring results of analysis result after all measuring process. This is very important assessment standards of performance evaluation of immunoassay kit. Recovery rate results of 6 type used WHO CRM are satisfactory to 88~99%. This demonstrates that the radioimmunoassay is a very accurate measurement, which is very effectively utilized in clinical practice.

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Determination of Sulfur Compounds in Gaseous Fuel by Gas Chromatography-Sulfur Chemiluminescence Detection (GC-SCD를 이용한 가스연료 중 황화합물의 정량)

  • Do, Lee Joo;Koh, Jae Suk;Kim, Ho Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.517-521
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    • 1999
  • Gas chromatography using sulfur chemiluminescence detection (GC-SCD) which exhibits very good selectivity, linearity, and sensitivity was applied to the analysis of suIfur compounds in gaseous fuel. The expectmental method used in this study was to resolve the problems of repeatability and reproducibility by means of the adsorption of sulfur compounds, which is different from the existing analysis method of these compounds by GC-SCD. The calibration curves of the standard gases including dimethyl sulfide, t-butylmercaptan and ethyl methyl sulfide exhibited an excellent linearity. As the result of precision tests for the above three compounds, the high reproducibility for tests showed while repeating three times during four days, respectively. In addition, the coefficient of variation was less than 3%. In consequence, the expectmental method of this study is very effective not only with low uncertainty but also with better accuracy, which can quickly determine the concentration of gas odorants in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) from oil reservoirs and filling stations.

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Thermal Response Analysis of Satellite Propulsion Tank with Thermostat Location Variation (써모스탯 위치변화에 대한 인공위성 추진제 탱크의 열적 반응 해석)

  • Lee, Kyun-Ho;Han, Cho-Young;Choi, Joon-Min;Moon, Hong-Youl
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.32 no.7
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    • pp.126-132
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    • 2004
  • Thermal control of satellite propellant tank is achieved by patch heaters enabled by thermostat's behavior. It is important to attach the thermostat on the appropriate position of the propellant tank. However its position cannot be given with exact numerics because tank is spherical. In practice, the thermostat position is designated approximately in a relevant drawing approximately, thereby an engineer practices depending on his own experience and intuition. The sensitivity analysis for the position of thermostat is performed such that the influence on the thermal behavior and control of tank is examined quantatively. When assembling tank module, the reasonable performance on the thermal control is believed with possible human errors if the uncertainty in the position of thermostat is not quite large.