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Cost-Benefit Analysis on Rubella Vaccination Policy (풍진 예방접종사업의 비용-편익분석)

  • Shin, Young-Jeon;Choi, Bo-Youl;Park, Hung-Bae;Moon, Ok-Ryun;Yoon, Bae-Joong
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.27 no.2 s.46
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    • pp.337-365
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    • 1994
  • Rubella is a viral disease with mild constitutional symptoms and generalized rashes. In childhood, it is an inconsequential illness, but when it occurs during early pregnant period, there are significant risks of heart defects, cataract, mental retardation to the fetus. The series of congenital defects induced by rubella is called 'congenital rubella syndrome'. Many research have been performed to find out more effective prevention program on rubella. The objectives of this study are, first, to calculate the incidence rate of acute rubella infection and congenital rubella syndrome in Korea, second, to evaluate economic efficiency of several rubella vaccination policies and to offer data for the most reasonable decision on vaccination policy. Study populations are 663,312 children of one year-old in 1992. The author has performed cost-benefit analyses according to the three vaccination policies-U.S.A.'s. U.K.'s and Sweden's. In this Study, the author got the incidence rate of acute rubella infection using the catalytic model. In the meantime, the author used 50 per 100,000 live births as the incidence rate of congenital rubella syndrome. The discount rate used in this study was 5 percent per annum. The sensitivity analyses were done with different discount rates (4%, 7%) and different incidence rate of congenital rubella syndrome (10,100 per 100,000 live births) : The study results are as follows: 1. Without vaccination, lifetime expenditures per patient for acute rubella infeciton amount to 14,822 won and the total expenditures to about 3.1 billion won. Meanwhile, lifetime expenditures per patient for congenital rubella syndrome amount to about 91 million won and the total expenditures to about 16.3 billion won without vaccination. 2. The cost of vaccination for a child of one year old was 2,322 won and the total cost for the one year old children was about 1.5 billion won (American style). The cost for vaccination of female children at fifteen was about 339 million won (Birtish style). And the cost of vaccination at one for both sex and female children at fifteen was about 1.9 billion won (Swedish style). 3. The benefit to cost ratios of vaccination of female children at fifteen that is the british mode of rubella vaccination, was 60.0 at the level of 80% population coverage and 48.6 at 100% coverage. It shows much higher benefit to cost ratio than those of the other two vaccination policies. 4. Both net benefits of vaccination at one (American style) and that of vaccinations at one and fifteen (Swedish style) range from about 17.0 billion to 17.8 billion won, those were larger than that of vaccinations of female children at fifteen (Birtish style, about 16.0 billion). 5. In marginal cost-benefit analysis of only additional program of revaccination, the benefit to cost ratios were 3.6 (80% coverage rate) or 0.6 (100% coverage rate). It implies that additional program was less efficient or inefficient. 6. In sensitivity analysis with different discount rates(4% or 7%) and different incidence rates of congenital rubella syndrome (10 or 100 per 100,000 live births), the benefit to cost ratios has fluctuated in wide range. However, all the ratios of vaccination of female children at fifteen were higher than those of the others. Even under the most conservative assumption, the benefit to cost ratios of all the rubella vaccination policies were higher than 3.3. In conclusion, all the rubella vaccination policies found to be cost-effective and particularly the vaccination of female children at fifteen was strongly recommended.

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The Limitation of Air Carriers' Cargo and Baggage Liability in International Aviation Law: With Reference to the U.S. Courts' Decisions (국제항공법상 화물.수하물에 대한 운송인의 책임상한제도 - 미국의 판례 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Moon, Joon-Jo
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.109-133
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    • 2007
  • The legal labyrinth through which we have just walked is one in which even a highly proficient lawyer could easily become lost. Warsaw Convention's original objective of uniformity of private international aviation liability law has been eroded as the world community ha attempted again to address perceived problems. Efforts to create simplicity and certainty of recovery actually may have created less of both. In any particular case, the issue of which international convention, intercarrier agreement or national law to apply will likely be inconsistent with other decisions. The law has evolved faster for some nations, and slower for others. Under the Warsaw Convention of 1929, strict liability is imposed on the air carrier for damage, loss, or destruction of cargo, luggage, or goods sustained either: (1) during carriage in air, which is comprised of the period during which cargo is 'in charge of the carrier (a) within an aerodrome, (b) on board the aircraft, or (c) in any place if the aircraft lands outside an aerodrome; or (2) as a result of delay. By 2007, 151 nations had ratified the original Warsaw Convention, 136 nations had ratified the Hague Protocol, 84 had ratified the Guadalajara Protocol, and 53 nations had ratified Montreal Protocol No.4, all of which have entered into force. In November 2003, the Montreal Convention of 1999 entered into force. Several airlines have embraced the Montreal Agreement or the IATA Intercarrier Agreements. Only seven nations had ratified the moribund Guatemala City Protocol. Meanwhile, the highly influential U.S. Second Circuit has rendered an opinion that no treaty on the subject was in force at all unless both affected nations had ratified the identical convention, leaving some cases to fall between the cracks into the arena of common law. Moreover, in the United States, a surface transportation movement prior or subsequent to the air movement may, depending upon the facts, be subject to Warsaw, or to common law. At present, International private air law regime can be described as a "situation of utter chaos" in which "even legal advisers and judges are confused." The net result of this barnacle-like layering of international and domestic rules, standards, agreements, and criteria in the elimination of legal simplicity and the substitution in its stead of complexity and commercial uncertainty, which manifestly can not inure to the efficient and economical flow of world trade. All this makes a strong case for universal ratification of the Montreal Convention, which will supersede the Warsaw Convention and its various reformulations. Now that the Montreal Convention has entered into force, the insurance community may press the airlines to embrace it, which in turn may encourage the world's governments to ratify it. Under the Montreal Convention, the common law defence is available to the carrier even when it was not the sole cause of the loss or damage, again making way for the application of comparative fault principle. Hopefully, the recent entry into force of the Montreal Convention of 1999 will re-establish the international legal uniformity the Warsaw Convention of 1929 sought to achieve, though far a transitional period at least, the courts of different nations will be applying different legal regimes.

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Memory Organization for a Fuzzy Controller.

  • Jee, K.D.S.;Poluzzi, R.;Russo, B.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1041-1043
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    • 1993
  • Fuzzy logic based Control Theory has gained much interest in the industrial world, thanks to its ability to formalize and solve in a very natural way many problems that are very difficult to quantify at an analytical level. This paper shows a solution for treating membership function inside hardware circuits. The proposed hardware structure optimizes the memoried size by using particular form of the vectorial representation. The process of memorizing fuzzy sets, i.e. their membership function, has always been one of the more problematic issues for the hardware implementation, due to the quite large memory space that is needed. To simplify such an implementation, it is commonly [1,2,8,9,10,11] used to limit the membership functions either to those having triangular or trapezoidal shape, or pre-definite shape. These kinds of functions are able to cover a large spectrum of applications with a limited usage of memory, since they can be memorized by specifying very few parameters ( ight, base, critical points, etc.). This however results in a loss of computational power due to computation on the medium points. A solution to this problem is obtained by discretizing the universe of discourse U, i.e. by fixing a finite number of points and memorizing the value of the membership functions on such points [3,10,14,15]. Such a solution provides a satisfying computational speed, a very high precision of definitions and gives the users the opportunity to choose membership functions of any shape. However, a significant memory waste can as well be registered. It is indeed possible that for each of the given fuzzy sets many elements of the universe of discourse have a membership value equal to zero. It has also been noticed that almost in all cases common points among fuzzy sets, i.e. points with non null membership values are very few. More specifically, in many applications, for each element u of U, there exists at most three fuzzy sets for which the membership value is ot null [3,5,6,7,12,13]. Our proposal is based on such hypotheses. Moreover, we use a technique that even though it does not restrict the shapes of membership functions, it reduces strongly the computational time for the membership values and optimizes the function memorization. In figure 1 it is represented a term set whose characteristics are common for fuzzy controllers and to which we will refer in the following. The above term set has a universe of discourse with 128 elements (so to have a good resolution), 8 fuzzy sets that describe the term set, 32 levels of discretization for the membership values. Clearly, the number of bits necessary for the given specifications are 5 for 32 truth levels, 3 for 8 membership functions and 7 for 128 levels of resolution. The memory depth is given by the dimension of the universe of the discourse (128 in our case) and it will be represented by the memory rows. The length of a world of memory is defined by: Length = nem (dm(m)+dm(fm) Where: fm is the maximum number of non null values in every element of the universe of the discourse, dm(m) is the dimension of the values of the membership function m, dm(fm) is the dimension of the word to represent the index of the highest membership function. In our case then Length=24. The memory dimension is therefore 128*24 bits. If we had chosen to memorize all values of the membership functions we would have needed to memorize on each memory row the membership value of each element. Fuzzy sets word dimension is 8*5 bits. Therefore, the dimension of the memory would have been 128*40 bits. Coherently with our hypothesis, in fig. 1 each element of universe of the discourse has a non null membership value on at most three fuzzy sets. Focusing on the elements 32,64,96 of the universe of discourse, they will be memorized as follows: The computation of the rule weights is done by comparing those bits that represent the index of the membership function, with the word of the program memor . The output bus of the Program Memory (μCOD), is given as input a comparator (Combinatory Net). If the index is equal to the bus value then one of the non null weight derives from the rule and it is produced as output, otherwise the output is zero (fig. 2). It is clear, that the memory dimension of the antecedent is in this way reduced since only non null values are memorized. Moreover, the time performance of the system is equivalent to the performance of a system using vectorial memorization of all weights. The dimensioning of the word is influenced by some parameters of the input variable. The most important parameter is the maximum number membership functions (nfm) having a non null value in each element of the universe of discourse. From our study in the field of fuzzy system, we see that typically nfm 3 and there are at most 16 membership function. At any rate, such a value can be increased up to the physical dimensional limit of the antecedent memory. A less important role n the optimization process of the word dimension is played by the number of membership functions defined for each linguistic term. The table below shows the request word dimension as a function of such parameters and compares our proposed method with the method of vectorial memorization[10]. Summing up, the characteristics of our method are: Users are not restricted to membership functions with specific shapes. The number of the fuzzy sets and the resolution of the vertical axis have a very small influence in increasing memory space. Weight computations are done by combinatorial network and therefore the time performance of the system is equivalent to the one of the vectorial method. The number of non null membership values on any element of the universe of discourse is limited. Such a constraint is usually non very restrictive since many controllers obtain a good precision with only three non null weights. The method here briefly described has been adopted by our group in the design of an optimized version of the coprocessor described in [10].

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Economic Analysis of the Livestock Manure Treatment System Using Life-Cycle Cost Technique (LCC 기법을 통한 가축분뇨처리시설의 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, J.H.;Cho, S.H.;Kwag, J.H.;Choi, D.Y.;Jeong, K.H.;Chung, U.S.;Chung, M.S.;Park, S.K.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.17 no.sup
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2011
  • To assess the total cost with all stages of facilities, the feasibility of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis was examined in this study to estimate the livestock manure treatment system and optimal decision making process. For the economic evaluation, the plant/equipment investment and annual operation cost of four Public Livestock Recycling Facilities, whose treatment capacity is 100 ton piggery manure per day, was compared. The initial cost was in the range of 2,699 million won to 3,202 million won, where T and E methods were highest and lowest, respectively. The annual operation cost was in the level of 378 million to 498 million won, which decreased in the following order : T method > J method > E method > B method. For the LCC analysis, 4.7% of interest rate, 3.13% of inflation rate, and 1.52% of net discount rate was considered by the data received from Bank of Korea and Statics Korea in the period of 2000 to 2009. Also, for the calculation of present value factor, the durable years of civil engineering & construction, machinery and electric instrument was 30 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively. Based on these consideration, operation cost was in the range of 17,570 won/ton to 20,661 won/ton, and E method (17,570 won/ton) was economical and B method (20,661 won/ton) was non-economical. Though initial cost of T method was higher than that of B method, LCC analysis of T method was lower than that of T method due to the lower operation cost. Therefore, LCC analysis, which considers both initial cost and operation cost, is more reasonable evaluation method than either initial cost or annual operation cost. For the change of LCC analysis according to the uncertainty, the sensitivity analysis was carried out using fluctuation magnitude of discount rate in the period of 2000 to 2009. As a result, LCC analysis evaluated by discount rate was stable for the uncertain factors since the cost leadership did not change even though the sensitivity analysis varied. In summary, the economic evaluation using LCC analysis could be an efficient reference to choose the suitable livestock manure treatment plants. Furthermore, standardization of statement calculation for the actual cost analysis should be conducted and more detailed study is necessary to validate this summary. Therefore, the application of comprehensive technology evaluation, which considers LCC analysis, should contribute in obtaining objectivity and enhancing reliability for the 'Evaluation of Livestock Manure Treatment System and its Technology'.

Heavy concrete shielding properties for carbon therapy

  • Jin-Long Wang;Jiade J Lu;Da-Jun Ding;Wen-Hua Jiang;Ya-Dong Li;Rui Qiu;Hui Zhang;Xiao-Zhong Wang;Huo-Sheng Ruan;Yan-Bing Teng;Xiao-Guang Wu;Yun Zheng;Zi-Hao Zhao;Kai-Zhong Liao;Huan-Cheng Mai;Xiao-Dong Wang;Ke Peng;Wei Wang;Zhan Tang;Zhao-Yan Yu;Zhen Wu;Hong-Hu Song;Shuo-Yang Wei;Sen-Lin Mao;Jun Xu;Jing Tao;Min-Qiang Zhang;Xi-Qiang Xue;Ming Wang
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.2335-2347
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    • 2023
  • As medical facilities are usually built at urban areas, special concrete aggregates and evaluation methods are needed to optimize the design of concrete walls by balancing density, thickness, material composition, cost, and other factors. Carbon treatment rooms require a high radiation shielding requirement, as the neutron yield from carbon therapy is much higher than the neutron yield of protons. In this case study, the maximum carbon energy is 430 MeV/u and the maximum current is 0.27 nA from a hybrid particle therapy system. Hospital or facility construction should consider this requirement to design a special heavy concrete. In this work, magnetite is adopted as the major aggregate. Density is determined mainly by the major aggregate content of magnetite, and a heavy concrete test block was constructed for structural tests. The compressive strength is 35.7 MPa. The density ranges from 3.65 g/cm3 to 4.14 g/cm3, and the iron mass content ranges from 53.78% to 60.38% from the 12 cored sample measurements. It was found that there is a linear relationship between density and iron content, and mixing impurities should be the major reason leading to the nonuniform element and density distribution. The effect of this nonuniformity on radiation shielding properties for a carbon treatment room is investigated by three groups of Monte Carlo simulations. Higher density dominates to reduce shielding thickness. However, a higher content of high-Z elements will weaken the shielding strength, especially at a lower dose rate threshold and vice versa. The weakened side effect of a high iron content on the shielding property is obvious at 2.5 µSv=h. Therefore, we should not blindly pursue high Z content in engineering. If the thickness is constrained to 2 m, then the density can be reduced to 3.3 g/cm3, which will save cost by reducing the magnetite composition with 50.44% iron content. If a higher density of 3.9 g/cm3 with 57.65% iron content is selected for construction, then the thickness of the wall can be reduced to 174.2 cm, which will save space for equipment installation.

Studies on the Rice Yield Decreased by Ground Water Irrigation and Its Preventive Methods (지하수 관개에 의한 수도의 멸준양상과 그 방지책에 관한 연구)

  • 한욱동
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.3225-3262
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    • 1974
  • The purposes of this thesis are to clarify experimentally the variation of ground water temperature in tube wells during the irrigation period of paddy rice, and the effect of ground water irrigation on the growth, grain yield and yield components of the rice plant, and, furthermore, when and why the plant is most liable to be damaged by ground water, and also to find out the effective ground water irrigation methods. The results obtained in this experiment are as follows; 1. The temperature of ground water in tube wells varies according to the location, year, and the depth of the well. The average temperatures of ground water in a tubewells, 6.3m, 8.0m deep are $14.5^{\circ}C$ and $13.1^{\circ}C$, respercively, during the irrigation period of paddy rice (From the middle of June to the end of September). In the former the temperature rises continuously from $12.3^{\circ}C$ to 16.4$^{\circ}C$ and in the latter from $12.4^{\circ}C$ to $13.8^{\circ}C$ during the same period. These temperatures are approximately the same value as the estimated temperatures. The temperature difference between the ground water and the surface water is approximately $11^{\circ}C$. 2. The results obtained from the analysis of the water quality of the "Seoho" reservoir and that of water from the tube well show that the pH values of the ground water and the surface water are 6.35 and 6.00, respectively, and inorganic components such as N, PO4, Na, Cl, SiO2 and Ca are contained more in the ground water than in the surface water while K, SO4, Fe and Mg are contained less in the ground water. 3. The response of growth, yield and yield components of paddy rice to ground water irrigation are as follows; (l) Using ground water irrigation during the watered rice nursery period(seeding date: 30 April, 1970), the chracteristics of a young rice plant, such as plant height, number of leaves, and number of tillers are inferior to those of young rice plants irrigated with surface water during the same period. (2) In cases where ground water and surface water are supplied separately by the gravity flow method, it is found that ground water irrigation to the rice plant delays the stage at which there is a maximum increase in the number of tillers by 6 days. (3) At the tillering stage of rice plant just after transplanting, the effect of ground water irrigation on the increase in the number of tillers is better, compared with the method of supplying surface water throughout the whole irrigation period. Conversely, the number of tillers is decreased by ground water irrigation at the reproductive stage. Plant height is extremely restrained by ground water irrigation. (4) Heading date is clearly delayed by the ground water irrigation when it is practised during the growth stages or at the reproductive stage only. (5) The heading date of rice plants is slightly delayed by irrigation with the gravity flow method as compared with the standing water method. (6) The response of yield and of yield components of rice to ground water irrigation are as follows: \circled1 When ground water irrigation is practised during the growth stages and the reproductive stage, the culm length of the rice plant is reduced by 11 percent and 8 percent, respectively, when compared with the surface water irrigation used throughout all the growth stages. \circled2 Panicle length is found to be the longest on the test plot in which ground water irrigation is practised at the tillering stage. A similar tendency as that seen in the culm length is observed on other test plots. \circled3 The number of panicles is found to be the least on the plot in which ground water irrigation is practised by the gravity flow method throughout all the growth stages of the rice plant. No significant difference is found between the other plots. \circled4 The number of spikelets per panicle at the various stages of rice growth at which_ surface or ground water is supplied by gravity flow method are as follows; surface water at all growth stages‥‥‥‥‥ 98.5. Ground water at all growth stages‥‥‥‥‥‥62.2 Ground water at the tillering stage‥‥‥‥‥ 82.6. Ground water at the reproductive stage ‥‥‥‥‥ 74.1. \circled5 Ripening percentage is about 70 percent on the test plot in which ground water irrigation is practised during all the growth stages and at the tillering stage only. However, when ground water irrigation is practised, at the reproductive stage, the ripening percentage is reduced to 50 percent. This means that 20 percent reduction in the ripening percentage by using ground water irrigation at the reproductive stage. \circled6 The weight of 1,000 kernels is found to show a similar tendency as in the case of ripening percentage i. e. the ground water irrigation during all the growth stages and at the reproductive stage results in a decreased weight of the 1,000 kernels. \circled7 The yield of brown rice from the various treatments are as follows; Gravity flow; Surface water at all growth stages‥‥‥‥‥‥514kg/10a. Ground water at all growth stages‥‥‥‥‥‥428kg/10a. Ground water at the reproductive stage‥‥‥‥‥‥430kg/10a. Standing water; Surface water at all growh stages‥‥‥‥‥‥556kg/10a. Ground water at all growth stages‥‥‥‥‥‥441kg/10a. Ground water at the reproductive stage‥‥‥‥‥‥450kg/10a. The above figures show that ground water irrigation by the gravity flow and by the standing water method during all the growth stages resulted in an 18 percent and a 21 percent decrease in the yield of brown rice, respectively, when compared with surface water irrigation. Also ground water irrigation by gravity flow and by standing water resulted in respective decreases in yield of 16 percent and 19 percent, compared with the surface irrigation method. 4. Results obtained from the experiments on the improvement of ground water irrigation efficiency to paddy rice are as follows; (1) When the standing water irrigation with surface water is practised, the daily average water temperature in a paddy field is 25.2$^{\circ}C$, but, when the gravity flow method is practised with the same irrigation water, the daily average water temperature is 24.5$^{\circ}C$. This means that the former is 0.7$^{\circ}C$ higher than the latter. On the other hand, when ground water is used, the daily water temperatures in a paddy field are respectively 21.$0^{\circ}C$ and 19.3$^{\circ}C$ by practising standing water and the gravity flow method. It can be seen that the former is approximately 1.$0^{\circ}C$ higher than the latter. (2) When the non-water-logged cultivation is practised, the yield of brown rice is 516.3kg/10a, while the yield of brown rice from ground water irrigation plot throughout the whole irrigation period and surface water irrigation plot are 446.3kg/10a and 556.4kg/10a, respectivelely. This means that there is no significant difference in yields between surface water irrigation practice and non-water-logged cultivation, and also means that non-water-logged cultivation results in a 12.6 percent increase in yield compared with the yield from the ground water irrigation plot. (3) The black and white coloring on the inside surface of the water warming ponds has no substantial effect on the temperature of the water. The average daily water temperatures of the various water warming ponds, having different depths, are expressed as Y=aX+b, while the daily average water temperatures at various depths in a water warming pond are expressed as Y=a(b)x (where Y: the daily average water temperature, a,b: constants depending on the type of water warming pond, X; water depth). As the depth of water warning pond is increased, the diurnal difference of the highest and the lowest water temperature is decreased, and also, the time at which the highest water temperature occurs, is delayed. (4) The degree of warming by using a polyethylene tube, 100m in length and 10cm in diameter, is 4~9$^{\circ}C$. Heat exchange rate of a polyethylene tube is 1.5 times higher than that or a water warming channel. The following equation expresses the water warming mechanism of a polyethylene tube where distance from the tube inlet, time in day and several climatic factors are given: {{{{ theta omega (dwt)= { a}_{0 } (1-e- { x} over { PHI v })+ { 2} atop { SUM from { { n}=1} { { a}_{n } } over { SQRT { 1+ {( n omega PHI) }^{2 } } } } LEFT { sin(n omega t+ { b}_{n }+ { tan}^{-1 }n omega PHI )-e- { x} over { PHI v }sin(n omega LEFT ( t- { x} over {v } RIGHT ) + { b}_{n }+ { tan}^{-1 }n omega PHI ) RIGHT } +e- { x} over { PHI v } theta i}}}}{{{{ { theta }_{$\infty$ }(t)= { { alpha theta }_{a }+ { theta }_{ w'} +(S- { B}_{s } ) { U}_{w } } over { beta } , PHI = { { cpDU}_{ omega } } over {4 beta } }}}} where $\theta$$\omega$; discharged water temperature($^{\circ}C$) $\theta$a; air temperature ($^{\circ}C$) $\theta$$\omega$';ponded water temperature($^{\circ}C$) s ; net solar radiation(ly/min) t ; time(tadian) x; tube length(cm) D; diameter(cm) ao,an,bn;constants determined from $\theta$$\omega$(t) varitation. cp; heat capacity of water(cal/$^{\circ}C$ ㎥) U,Ua; overall heat transfer coefficient(cal/$^{\circ}C$ $\textrm{cm}^2$ min-1) $\omega$;1 velocity of water in a polyethylene tube(cm/min) Bs ; heat exchange rate between water and soil(ly/min)

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