• Title/Summary/Keyword: Trend growth accounting

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A Slowdown in Korea's GDP Trend Growth and Its Decomposition (한국경제의 추세성장률 하락과 요인분해)

  • Seok, Byoung Hoon;Lee, Nam Gang
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.1-40
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    • 2021
  • Using an unobserved components model that features trend growth as a random walk, we find that GDP trend growth rates had gradually declined from the late 1980s to early 2010s in Korea. To uncover the underlying features of the slowdown, we use trend growth accounting. A major feature appears to be a significant decline in the growth rate of labor productivity. To be specific, the first gradual decline in trend growth, which started in 1988 and continued to 1998, is associated with a drop in TFP measured in labor-augmenting units. This finding is inconsistent with the hypothesis that the slowdown in GDP trend growth can be attributed to the 1997-1998 Korean financial crisis. Sluggish investment growth is behind the second period of the gradual slowdown, from 2002 to 2012.

Analysis on the Drivers of Growth in Forestry Sector and Growth Projection through Growth Accounting Analysis (성장회계분석을 통한 임산업의 성장요인분석과 전망)

  • Lee, Yohan;Jung, Jaeho;Min, KyungTaek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.4
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    • pp.677-684
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzed a long-run growth trend of the forestry sector in the Republic of Korea, and forecasted the potential growth in the future after investigating main drivers of growth in the forestry sector through growth accounting analysis. Based on results, we finally suggested a direction to go forward in order to achieve a sustainable growth in the field. After Asia financial crisis, the growth rate of the forestry sector was getting stable with the fast recovery of Korean economy. While the main drivers of growth in the field was labor and capital accumulation in 1980s and 1990s, the main driver of growth has been the increment of capital accumulation since 2000. As the result of our analysis for forecasting the potential growth in the field, the contribution of labor, capital, TFP in total growth is expected as 0.09%, 1.58%, and -0.01%, respectively. The potential growth rate of the forestry sector during 2012-2020 is predicted to be 1.65% and the total production will become 36.25 trillion won.

An Empirical Study on the Effects of Fertility Rate and Female Labor Supply on Economic Potential (출산율 및 여성고용 제고 정책이 성장잠재력에 미치는 영향)

  • Ryu, Deock-Hyun
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.27-54
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of policy boosting fertility and labor participation rate on potential GDP growth rate. To do this, we employ a growth accounting approach, which decomposes per capita GDP into two parts. The first one is the change of dependency ratio and the other is the change of labor input. The labor input is again decomposed into the qualitative and quantitative parts. The quantitative part considers the change of labor participation rate and working time. The qualitative aspects is based on the trend of productivity of labor. From the scenarios of NSO(National Statistics Office), the effect of the fertility-raising policy on per capita potential GDP growth rate is calculated and projected to the year of 2050. We also forecast the policy effect inducing high labor participating rate of female labor and beyond 55-year old labor. The baseline results show that the per capita GDP growth rate will show mid 4% to the year of 2010, gradually declining to 3.94% by 2020, 3.03% by 2030, 2.41% by 2040. The high fertility rate scenario will not have effects on the potential growth by 2030, but show 0.10%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario result. By the high female labor participation policy, the per capita GDP growth rate will reach 0.04%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario. Based on the results of this paper, we conclude that the quantitative labor input cannot solely account for the trend decline of potential GDP, and the qualitative aspect, like labor productivity, is much more important element to sustain and boots the economic growth.

A New way of the Measuring of Innovative Growth: Growth Accounting Model vs Schumpeterian Technological Change Model (혁신성장 측정에 관한 연구: 성장회계모형 vs 슘페테리안 기술변화 모형)

  • Myung-Joong Kwon;Sang-Hyuk Cho;Mikyung Yun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.105-148
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    • 2023
  • This paper provides a new method of measuring the degree of technological progress which contributes to real economic growth based on Schumpeter's Trilogy. Using Microdata of Statistics Korea, the results of measuring and comparing the actual growth contribution of technological progress during the period 2003-2018 by the total factor productivity growth rate(growth accounting method), the R&D investment contribution rate, and the Schumpeterian innovation growth rate, respectively are as follows. First, the measurement of the real growth contribution of technological progress by the growth rate of total factor productivity and the growth rate of Schumpeterian innovation shows contradictory results. Second, when the growth rate of production is in a decreasing trend, the difference between the growth rate of production and the growth rate of total factor productivity increases compared to when it is in an increasing trend. Conversely, when there is an increasing trend, the difference between the growth rate of production and the growth rate of total factor productivity becomes smaller compared to when it is in a decreasing trend.. Third, the technological opportunity that affects the innovation growth rate, i.e., the contribution of R&D incentives to innovative growth is only 3.3%. The reason why this result is different from the existing perception of the contribution of technological progress to growth is that different entities are being measured while measuring the same term of technological progress. Therefore, the growth rate of total factor productivity should be used to measure macroeconomic efficiency, R&D investment should be used to measure the effectiveness of new technology supply, and the Schumpeterian innovation rate should be used to measure the economic impact of technological progress. The policy implications of the research results of this thesis are as follows: ① Transition from a policy of one-sided technology supply to a policy of convergence of technology supply and new technology demand support, ② Mission-oriented R&D policy and R&D policy that links national R&D with private R&D, ③ Reclassification of capital goods reflecting the degree of new knowledge.

Methods and Applications to estimate the Conversion Factor of Resource-based Relative Value Scale for Nurse-Midwife's Delivery Service in the National Health Insurance (조산원(助産院)의 분만간호서비스에 대한 건강보험수가 산출방법과 적용방안)

  • Kim, Jin-Hyun;Jung, Yoo-Mi
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.574-583
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: This paper analyzed alternative methods of calculating the conversion factor for nurse-midwife's delivery services in the national health insurance and estimated the optimal reimbursement level for the services. Methods: A cost accounting model and Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) model were developed to estimate the conversion factor of Resource-Based Relative Value Scale (RBRVS) for nurse-midwife's services, depending on the scope of revenue considered in financial analysis. The data and sources from the government and the financial statements from nurse-midwife clinics were used in analysis. Results: The cost accounting model and SGR model showed a 17.6-37.9% increase and 19.0-23.6% increase, respectively, in nurse-midwife fee for delivery services in the national health insurance. The SGR model measured an overall trend of medical expenditures rather than an individual financial status of nurse-midwife clinics, and the cost analysis properly estimated the level of reimbursement for nurse-midwife's services. Conclusion: Normal vaginal delivery in nurse-midwife clinics is considered cost-effective in terms of insurance financing. Upon a declining share of health expenditures on midwife clinics, designing a reimbursement strategy for midwife's services could be an opportunity as well as a challenge when it comes to efficient resource allocation.

Effects of CSR Activities on Business Performance of Logistics Firms

  • JEON, Ho-Jin;KIM, Young-Min;YOUN, Myoung-Kil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2019
  • Purpose As consumer awareness grows, the importance of CSR becomes even more important for long-term growth. In response to this current trend, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of CSR activities on business performance for logistics companies. Research design, data, and methodology - Between CSR activities and growth, there was a generally positive(+) relationships between activities such as donation and volunteerism and the growth of the enterprise. In terms of the relationship between environmental factors and growth, negative results were expressed. In case of profitability, improved welfare for workers has had a positive impact on corporate profitability. Results - With respect to stability, a high proportion of equity capital is not considered to be more active in SCR activities. Significant negative results were given between the minimum factors for entry, transportation, and noise generation factors and the ratio of liabilities, which are representative friction factors in the community. Conclusions - With respect to stability, a high proportion of equity capital is not considered to be more active in SCR activities. Significant negative results were given between the minimum factors for entry, transportation, and noise generation factors and the ratio of liabilities, which are representative friction factors in the community.

A Study on the Development of Performance Evaluation Model Utilizing BSC(Balanced Score Cards) for Construction Firms (균형성과지표(BSC) 개념의 건설기업 성과평가모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Shin Kyoo-Chul
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2002
  • Utilizing information and knowledge is one of the major objectives in the management of construction firm. This trend has been developed both inside of the firms and overall industry-wise. Therefore conventional methods of performance evaluation based on the financial statements such as balance sheet under GAAP(Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) are not sufficient to cover various Performance of constriction firms. Core competency of construction firms needs to be evaluated by the new performance evaluation model. In this research, the concept of BSC (Balanced Score Cards) is utilized to develop the performance evaluation model for construction firms considering four major performance indicators including financial perspective, customer perspective, learn and growth perspective, anti internal business perspective. A model of performance evaluation including criteria is proposed to evaluate construction firms based on their vision and strategy.

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Damage Conditions and Assessment for Cut Slope Structures due to Acid Rock Drainage (산성암반배수에 의한 절취사면 구조물의 피해 현황과 평가)

  • Lee Gyoo Ho;Kim Jae Gon;Park Sam-Gyu;Lee Jin-Soo;Chon Chul-Min;Kim Tack Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2005
  • The aim of this study was to investigate damage conditions of cut slope structures due to acid rock drainage (ARB) and to assess the acid production potential of various rocks. Acid rock drainage is produced by the oxidation of sulfide minerals contained in coal mine zone and mineralization belt of Pyeongan supergroup and Ogcheon group, pyrite-bearing andesite, and Tertiary acid sulfate soils in Korea. Most of cut slopes producing ARB have been treated with shotcrete to reduce ARD. According to the field observations, ARD had an adverse effect on slope structures. The corrosion of shotcrete, anchors and rock bolts and the bad germination and growth diseases of covering plants due to ARD were observed in the field. The concentration of heavy metals and pH of ARD from cut slope exceeded the environmental standard, indicating a high potential of environmental pollution of surrounding soil, surface water and ground water by the ARD. According to acid base accounting (ABA) of the studied samples, hydrothermally altered volcanic rocks, tuffs, coaly shales, tailings of metallic mine had a relatively high potential of acid production but gneiss and granite had no or less acid production potential. It is expected that the number of cut slopes will increase hereafter considering the present construction trend. In order to reduce the adverse effect of ARD in construction sites, we need to secure the data base for potential ARD producing area and to develop the ARD reduction technologies suitable.

CYBERCRIME AS A THREAT TO UKRAINE'S NATIONAL SECURITY

  • Varenia, Nataliia;Avdoshyn, Ihor;Strelbytska, Lilia;Strelbytskyy, Mykola;Palchyk, Maksym
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.73-83
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    • 2021
  • The information space, the main components of which are information resources, means of information interaction, and information infrastructure, is a sphere of modern social life in which information communications play a leading role. The objective process is the gradual but stable entry of the national information space into the European and world information sphere, in the context of which there is a legitimate question of its protection as one of the components of the national security of Ukraine. However, the implementation of this issue in practice immediately faces the need to respect the rights and fundamental freedoms guaranteed by international regulations and the Constitution of Ukraine, especially in the field of cybersecurity. The peculiarity of the modern economy is related to its informational nature, which affects the sharp increase in cyber incidents in the field of information security, which is widespread and threatening and affects a wide range of private, corporate, and public interests. The problem of forming an effective information security system is exacerbated by the spread of cybercrime as a leading threat to information security both in Ukraine and around the world. The purpose of this study is to analyze the state of cybersecurity and on this basis to identify new areas of the fight against cybercrime in Ukraine. Methods: the study is based on an extensive regulatory framework, which primarily consists of regulatory acts of Ukraine. The main methods were inductions and deductions, generalizations, statistical, comparative, and system-structural analysis, grouping, descriptive statistics, interstate comparisons, and graphical methods. Results. It is noted that a very important component of Ukraine's national security is the concept of "information terrorism", which includes cyberterrorism and media terrorism that will require its introduction into the law. An assessment of the state of cybersecurity in Ukraine is given. Based on the trend analysis, further growth of cybercrimes was predicted, and ABC analysis showed the existence of problems in the field of security of payment systems. Insufficient accounting of cybercrime and the absence in the current legislation of all relevant components of cybersecurity does not allow the definition of a holistic system of counteraction. Therefore, the proposed new legal norms in the field of information security take into account modern research in the field of promising areas of information technology development and the latest algorithms for creating media content.

Current Status of Korean Ginseng Products and Trends in Enhanced Functional Ginseng Products

  • Byungdae Lee;Tae-Eun Kwon;Hoon-Il Oh;Ho-jung Yoon
    • Journal of Ginseng Culture
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    • v.6
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    • pp.13-34
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    • 2024
  • The abolishment of the red ginseng monopoly act by the Korean government in 1996 resulted in a drastic change in the Korean ginseng industry, leading to a significant increase in the market size and consumption of ginseng products. Red ginseng is most popular type, with approximately 74% of harvested fresh ginseng being processed into various red ginseng products. Since 1997, there has been a substantial increase in the cultivation of ginseng for production of red ginseng, which, in turn, has contributed to the proliferation of ginseng processing companies. To investigate the products of ginseng manufacturing businesses, we select 200 companies primarily engaged in ginseng processing or specializing solely in ginseng. Our survey on the status of ginseng industry covered 8 different categories. 1) Root ginseng: There were 66 companies involved in manufacturing red ginseng root, accounting for 33.0% of all surveyed companies. This was followed by black ginseng root with 36 companies (18.0%) and red ginseng fine roots with 22 companies (11%). 2) Red ginseng products: A total of 144 companies were involved in manufacturing red ginseng pouches, making it the most common product category. This was closely followed by 142 companies producing pure(100%) red ginseng extract concentrate. 3) Fermented red ginseng products: Companies producing fermented red ginseng extract concentrate products were the most numerous, totaling 26. Following this, companies producing fermented red ginseng stick and pouch products were next in line. 4) Ginseng products: There were 15 companies involved in the production of ginseng products, with the majority focusing on ginseng tea. 5) Black ginseng products: Companies producing black ginseng extract concentrate were the most numerous, with 31 companies, followed by 26 companies producing black ginseng extract pouches. 6) Taegeuk ginseng products: Only 5 companies were involved in the production of taegeuk ginseng products. 7) Fermented black ginseng, and 8) Ginseng berry products: These categories are manufactured by less than 5 companies each. However, the variety in ginseng berry products suggests the potential for future growth. In the 2000s, a trend emerged with the development of new processed products aimed at enhancing the functional components of red ginseng, and these products have captured the attention of consumers. However, this study primarily focuses on black ginseng, fermented red ginseng/fermented black ginseng, and ginseng berry products as they have exerted a significant influence on the overall ginseng industry.