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Interpreting Bounded Rationality in Business and Industrial Marketing Contexts: Executive Training Case Studies (집행관배훈안례연구(阐述工商业背景下的有限合理性):집행관배훈안례연구(执行官培训案例研究))

  • Woodside, Arch G.;Lai, Wen-Hsiang;Kim, Kyung-Hoon;Jung, Deuk-Keyo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.49-61
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    • 2009
  • This article provides training exercises for executives into interpreting subroutine maps of executives' thinking in processing business and industrial marketing problems and opportunities. This study builds on premises that Schank proposes about learning and teaching including (1) learning occurs by experiencing and the best instruction offers learners opportunities to distill their knowledge and skills from interactive stories in the form of goal.based scenarios, team projects, and understanding stories from experts. Also, (2) telling does not lead to learning because learning requires action-training environments should emphasize active engagement with stories, cases, and projects. Each training case study includes executive exposure to decision system analysis (DSA). The training case requires the executive to write a "Briefing Report" of a DSA map. Instructions to the executive trainee in writing the briefing report include coverage in the briefing report of (1) details of the essence of the DSA map and (2) a statement of warnings and opportunities that the executive map reader interprets within the DSA map. The length maximum for a briefing report is 500 words-an arbitrary rule that works well in executive training programs. Following this introduction, section two of the article briefly summarizes relevant literature on how humans think within contexts in response to problems and opportunities. Section three illustrates the creation and interpreting of DSA maps using a training exercise in pricing a chemical product to different OEM (original equipment manufacturer) customers. Section four presents a training exercise in pricing decisions by a petroleum manufacturing firm. Section five presents a training exercise in marketing strategies by an office furniture distributer along with buying strategies by business customers. Each of the three training exercises is based on research into information processing and decision making of executives operating in marketing contexts. Section six concludes the article with suggestions for use of this training case and for developing additional training cases for honing executives' decision-making skills. Todd and Gigerenzer propose that humans use simple heuristics because they enable adaptive behavior by exploiting the structure of information in natural decision environments. "Simplicity is a virtue, rather than a curse". Bounded rationality theorists emphasize the centrality of Simon's proposition, "Human rational behavior is shaped by a scissors whose blades are the structure of the task environments and the computational capabilities of the actor". Gigerenzer's view is relevant to Simon's environmental blade and to the environmental structures in the three cases in this article, "The term environment, here, does not refer to a description of the total physical and biological environment, but only to that part important to an organism, given its needs and goals." The present article directs attention to research that combines reports on the structure of task environments with the use of adaptive toolbox heuristics of actors. The DSA mapping approach here concerns the match between strategy and an environment-the development and understanding of ecological rationality theory. Aspiration adaptation theory is central to this approach. Aspiration adaptation theory models decision making as a multi-goal problem without aggregation of the goals into a complete preference order over all decision alternatives. The three case studies in this article permit the learner to apply propositions in aspiration level rules in reaching a decision. Aspiration adaptation takes the form of a sequence of adjustment steps. An adjustment step shifts the current aspiration level to a neighboring point on an aspiration grid by a change in only one goal variable. An upward adjustment step is an increase and a downward adjustment step is a decrease of a goal variable. Creating and using aspiration adaptation levels is integral to bounded rationality theory. The present article increases understanding and expertise of both aspiration adaptation and bounded rationality theories by providing learner experiences and practice in using propositions in both theories. Practice in ranking CTSs and writing TOP gists from DSA maps serves to clarify and deepen Selten's view, "Clearly, aspiration adaptation must enter the picture as an integrated part of the search for a solution." The body of "direct research" by Mintzberg, Gladwin's ethnographic decision tree modeling, and Huff's work on mapping strategic thought are suggestions on where to look for research that considers both the structure of the environment and the computational capabilities of the actors making decisions in these environments. Such research on bounded rationality permits both further development of theory in how and why decisions are made in real life and the development of learning exercises in the use of heuristics occurring in natural environments. The exercises in the present article encourage learning skills and principles of using fast and frugal heuristics in contexts of their intended use. The exercises respond to Schank's wisdom, "In a deep sense, education isn't about knowledge or getting students to know what has happened. It is about getting them to feel what has happened. This is not easy to do. Education, as it is in schools today, is emotionless. This is a huge problem." The three cases and accompanying set of exercise questions adhere to Schank's view, "Processes are best taught by actually engaging in them, which can often mean, for mental processing, active discussion."

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Intestinal Atresia - A Survey by the Korean Association of Pediatric Surgeons - (선천성 장폐쇄증 - 대한소아외과학회 정회원을 대상으로 한 전국조사 -)

  • Kim, I.K.;Kim, S.Y.;Kim, S.K.;Kim, W.K.;Kim, J.E.;Kim, J.C.;Kim, H.H.;Park, K.W.;Park, Y.S.;Park, W.H.;Song, Y.T;Yang, J.W.;Oh, S.M.;Yoo, S.Y.;Lee, D.S.;Lee, M.D.;Lee, S.K.;Lee, S.C.;Chang, S.I.
    • Advances in pediatric surgery
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 1999
  • A survey on the intestinal atresias was made among 34 members of Korean Association of Pediatric Surgeons. The response rate was 82.4 %. Two hundred and fifteen patients from the January 1, 1994 to December 31, 1996 were analyzed. The lesions were 73 cases of duodenum(DA), 72 cases of jejunum(JA), 71 cases ileum(IA) and 2 cases cecum and sigmoid colon respectively. There were 2 cases of combined anomalies (DA + JA + IA and DA + JA). Male to female ratio was 1:1 in DA, and 1.8:1 in JA. Seventy four cases(34.3 %) were premature babies(DA 35.2 %, JA:48.6 %, IA:19.2 %), and 62 cases(28.7 %) had low birth weight (DA:39.4 %, JA 33.0 %, IA:13.7 %). Antenatal diagnosis was made in 92 cases(43.6 %). However 22 cases (23.9 %) of them were transferred to pediatric surgeon after delivery. Maternal polyhydramnios was observed in 63 cases(28.9 %). Seventy· five cases(34.4 %) were taken only simple abdominal film for diagnostic studies. The associated malformations were observed in 54 aresia and were observed more frequently in DA(35 cases, 47.9 %). Meconium peritonitis due to intrauterine bowel perforation was more frequently associated with IA compared to DA and JA. The overall mortality rate was 30 %. (Abbreuations: $P_{T}$;p-value in total, $P_{DJ,DI,JI}$;p value between two groups among duodenal, jejunal and ileal groups).

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Varietal and Locational Variation of Grain Quality Components of Rice Produced in Hilly and High Altitude Areas in Korea (중산간지와 고냉지산 쌀 형태 및 이화학적특성의 품종 및 산지간 변이)

  • Choi, Hae-Chune;Chi, Jeong-Hyun;Lee, Chong-Seob;Kim, Young-Bae;Cho, Soo-Yeon
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 1994
  • To catch the relative importance of varietal and environmental variation in various grain quality components associated with palatability of cooked rice, grain appearance, milling recovery, several physicochemical properties of milled rice and texture or eating quality of cooked rice for rice materials of five japonica cultivars, produced at four locations of the mid-mountainous and alpine area of Korea in 1989, were evaluated and analyzed the obtained data. Highly significant varietal and locational variations were detected in 1000-grain weight, amylose content, K/Mg ratio, gelatinization temperature, peak viscosity, breakdown and setback viscosities as compared with variety x location interaction variation. Also, marked locational variations were recongnized in milling recovery from rough to brwon rice, alkali digestibility and protein content, and significant varietal variation was caught in stickiness /hardness ratio of cooked rice. The variety x location interaction variation was especially large in quality components of grain appearance and ripening, palatability of cooked rice and consistency viscosity. One thousand kernel weight was heaviest in Jinbuolbyeo and Odaebyeo, and the unfilled grain ratio was lowest in Jinbuolbyeo. Odaebyeo showed slightly' lower ratio of intact and clear milled rice because of more chalky rice kernels compared with other cultivars. Amylose content of Jinbuolbyeo and Sobaegbyeo was about 1% lower than that of others and K/Mg ratio of Odaebyeo was the lowest one among rice materials. Odaebyeo, Sobaegbyeo and Jinbuolbyeo revealed significantly low gelatinization temperature and setback viscosity while high peak and breakdown viscosities. Cholwon rice showed the greatest kernel weight, good grain filling but lowest ratio of intact and clear milled rice while Jinbu rices exhibited the highest milling recovery from rough to brown rice and ratio of sound milled rice. Amylose content of milled rice in Jinbu rices was about 2-3% lower than those in other locations. Protein content of polished rice was about 1% lower in rice materials of middle zone than those of southern part of Korea. K/Mg ratio of milled rice was highest in Jinbu rice and potassium content was slightly higher in the rice materials of middle region than in those of southern region. Alkali digestion value and gelatinization temperature of polished rice was markedly high in Jinbu rices as compared with other locations. Breakdown viscosity was hightest in Chlown rices and next higher with the order of Hwaso>Unbong>Jinbu rices, and setback viscosity was the quite contrary tendency with breakdown. The stickiness /hardness ratio of cooked rice was relatively higher value in Cholwon rices than in the others and the palatability of cooked rice was a little better in Unbong and Cholwon rices than in Jinbu and Hwaso rices, although variety x location interaction variation was large. The rice materials can be classified largely into two groups of Jinbu and the others by the distribution on the plane of 1st and 2nd principal components (about 60% of total informations) contracted from twelve grain quality properties closely associated with eating quality of cooked rice. Also, Jinbu and the other rices were divided into two and three rice groups respectively. Varietal variation of overall rice quality was smallest in Hwaso. The most superior rice group in overall quality evaluation included Odaebyeo produced at Cholwon, Unbong and Hwaso, and Sobaegbyeo grown at Unbong

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Study on Spring Cocoon Crops with the Leaf Produced in the Mulberry Field close to the Totacco Field (개량 Mulching 담배밭 부근뽕잎이 춘잠작에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • 이상풍;김정배;김계명;박광준
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 1974
  • The studies are to know how much cocoon crops is damaged by the stained leaf with nicotine produced from the tobacco field cultivated in mulching system in spring season and by residual nicotine in autumn season. Furthermore, the new knowledges are to make both industries keep up with their development. In spring season mulberry Held is located higher on the West-North of tobacco held below 20 degrees of slope and with 36 per cent of East-South wind and 18 per cent of South wind blowing from tobacco fold to the mulberry fold. In addition, silkworm larvae are fed with the mulberry leaf produced in the different plots placing by the different distances, l0m, 25m, 50m, 80m, and loom far from the tobacco Held as a control and it is also considered that narcotic larvae including the dead larvae are not observed. On the other hand, it is noted that better leaf quality and abundant growth of mulberry tree is produced from the mulberry fold closer to the tobacco field and with a low slope. 1) Maximum weight of larval body at the 5th stage is damaged by the stained leaf with the nicotine up to 25m far from the tobacco held. 2) The larvae fed with the mulberry leaf in mulberry Held up to 25m far from the tobacco fold produce small number of the fresh cocoons per 1 liter. 3) Low single cocoon weight and low cocoon shell weight are produced by the poison damaged larvae fed with the mulberry. leaf up to 25m far from the tobacco field and weight of cocoon shell is damaged higher than the single cocoon weight. It is resulted in low percentage of cocoon shell. 4) Cocoon yield including the double cocoon from 10,000 larvae is decreased by the larvae fed with the stained leaf in the mulberry fold up to 25m far from the tobacco fold and 19 per cent of cocoon yield is decreased with 2.4kg of cocoon yield in l0m plot and with 2.5kg of cocoon yield in 25m plot at the first season and at the 2nd season with 1.8kg o( cocoon yield in l0m plot and with 11.5kg of cocoon yield in 25m plot, 11 per cent and 9 per cent of cocoon yield including double cocoon from 10,000 larvae is decreased, as compared with the control, respectively. With these results, it is observed that nicotine damage is occurred to the silkworm larvae if the larvae are fed with the leaf in the mulberry Held within 25m-50m far from the tobacco field.

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Cooperative Sales Promotion in Manufacturer-Retailer Channel under Unplanned Buying Potential (비계획구매를 고려한 제조업체와 유통업체의 판매촉진 비용 분담)

  • Kim, Hyun Sik
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.29-53
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    • 2012
  • As so many marketers get to use diverse sales promotion methods, manufacturer and retailer in a channel often use them too. In this context, diverse issues on sales promotion management arise. One of them is the issue of unplanned buying. Consumers' unplanned buying is clearly better off for the retailer but not for manufacturer. This asymmetric influence of unplanned buying should be dealt with prudently because of its possibility of provocation of channel conflict. However, there have been scarce studies on the sales promotion management strategy considering the unplanned buying and its asymmetric effect on retailer and manufacturer. In this paper, we try to find a better way for a manufacturer in a channel to promote performance through the retailer's sales promotion efforts when there is potential of unplanned buying effect. We investigate via game-theoretic modeling what is the optimal cost sharing level between the manufacturer and retailer when there is unplanned buying effect. We investigated following issues about the topic as follows: (1) What structure of cost sharing mechanism should the manufacturer and retailer in a channel choose when unplanned buying effect is strong (or weak)? (2) How much payoff could the manufacturer and retailer in a channel get when unplanned buying effect is strong (or weak)? We focus on the impact of unplanned buying effect on the optimal cost sharing mechanism for sales promotions between a manufacturer and a retailer in a same channel. So we consider two players in the game, a manufacturer and a retailer who are interacting in a same distribution channel. The model is of complete information game type. In the model, the manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader and the retailer is the follower. Variables in the model are as following table. Manufacturer's objective function in the basic game is as follows: ${\Pi}={\Pi}_1+{\Pi}_2$, where, ${\Pi}_1=w_1(1+L-p_1)-{\psi}^2$, ${\Pi}_2=w_2(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. And retailer's is as follows: ${\pi}={\pi}_1+{\pi}_2$, where, ${\pi}_1=(p_1-w_1)(1+L-p_1)-L(L-{\psi})+p_u(b+L-p_u)$, ${\pi}_2=(p_2-w_2)(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. The model is of four stages in two periods. Stages of the game are as follows. (Stage 1) Manufacturer sets wholesale price of the first period($w_1$) and cost sharing level of channel sales promotion(${\Psi}$). (Stage 2) Retailer sets retail price of the focal brand($p_1$), the unplanned buying item($p_u$), and sales promotion level(L). (Stage 3) Manufacturer sets wholesale price of the second period($w_2$). (Stage 4) Retailer sets retail price of the second period($p_2$). Since the model is a kind of dynamic games, we try to find a subgame perfect equilibrium to derive some theoretical and managerial implications. In order to obtain the subgame perfect equilibrium, we use the backward induction method. In using backward induction approach, we solve the problems backward from stage 4 to stage 1. By completely knowing follower's optimal reaction to the leader's potential actions, we can fold the game tree backward. Equilibrium of each variable in the basic game is as following table. We conducted more analysis of additional game about diverse cost level of manufacturer. Manufacturer's objective function in the additional game is same with that of the basic game as follows: ${\Pi}={\Pi}_1+{\Pi}_2$, where, ${\Pi}_1=w_1(1+L-p_1)-{\psi}^2$, ${\Pi}_2=w_2(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. But retailer's objective function is different from that of the basic game as follows: ${\pi}={\pi}_1+{\pi}_2$, where, ${\pi}_1=(p_1-w_1)(1+L-p_1)-L(L-{\psi})+(p_u-c)(b+L-p_u)$, ${\pi}_2=(p_2-w_2)(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. Equilibrium of each variable in this additional game is as following table. Major findings of the current study are as follows: (1) As the unplanned buying effect gets stronger, manufacturer and retailer had better increase the cost for sales promotion. (2) As the unplanned buying effect gets stronger, manufacturer had better decrease the cost sharing portion of total cost for sales promotion. (3) Manufacturer's profit is increasing function of the unplanned buying effect. (4) All results of (1),(2),(3) are alleviated by the increase of retailer's procurement cost to acquire unplanned buying items. The authors discuss the implications of those results for the marketers in manufacturers or retailers. The current study firstly suggests some managerial implications for the manufacturer how to share the sales promotion cost with the retailer in a channel to the high or low level of the consumers' unplanned buying potential.

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Strategy for Store Management Using SOM Based on RFM (RFM 기반 SOM을 이용한 매장관리 전략 도출)

  • Jeong, Yoon Jeong;Choi, Il Young;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Choi, Ju Choel
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.93-112
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    • 2015
  • Depending on the change in consumer's consumption pattern, existing retail shop has evolved in hypermarket or convenience store offering grocery and daily products mostly. Therefore, it is important to maintain the inventory levels and proper product configuration for effectively utilize the limited space in the retail store and increasing sales. Accordingly, this study proposed proper product configuration and inventory level strategy based on RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) model and SOM(self-organizing map) for manage the retail shop effectively. RFM model is analytic model to analyze customer behaviors based on the past customer's buying activities. And it can differentiates important customers from large data by three variables. R represents recency, which refers to the last purchase of commodities. The latest consuming customer has bigger R. F represents frequency, which refers to the number of transactions in a particular period and M represents monetary, which refers to consumption money amount in a particular period. Thus, RFM method has been known to be a very effective model for customer segmentation. In this study, using a normalized value of the RFM variables, SOM cluster analysis was performed. SOM is regarded as one of the most distinguished artificial neural network models in the unsupervised learning tool space. It is a popular tool for clustering and visualization of high dimensional data in such a way that similar items are grouped spatially close to one another. In particular, it has been successfully applied in various technical fields for finding patterns. In our research, the procedure tries to find sales patterns by analyzing product sales records with Recency, Frequency and Monetary values. And to suggest a business strategy, we conduct the decision tree based on SOM results. To validate the proposed procedure in this study, we adopted the M-mart data collected between 2014.01.01~2014.12.31. Each product get the value of R, F, M, and they are clustered by 9 using SOM. And we also performed three tests using the weekday data, weekend data, whole data in order to analyze the sales pattern change. In order to propose the strategy of each cluster, we examine the criteria of product clustering. The clusters through the SOM can be explained by the characteristics of these clusters of decision trees. As a result, we can suggest the inventory management strategy of each 9 clusters through the suggested procedures of the study. The highest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have high level of the inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where it can be increasing customer's path. In contrast, the lowest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have low level of inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where visibility is low. The highest R value cluster's products is usually new releases products, and need to be placed on the front of the store. And, manager should decrease inventory levels gradually in the highest F value cluster's products purchased in the past. Because, we assume that cluster has lower R value and the M value than the average value of good. And it can be deduced that product are sold poorly in recent days and total sales also will be lower than the frequency. The procedure presented in this study is expected to contribute to raising the profitability of the retail store. The paper is organized as follows. The second chapter briefly reviews the literature related to this study. The third chapter suggests procedures for research proposals, and the fourth chapter applied suggested procedure using the actual product sales data. Finally, the fifth chapter described the conclusion of the study and further research.

Improved Social Network Analysis Method in SNS (SNS에서의 개선된 소셜 네트워크 분석 방법)

  • Sohn, Jong-Soo;Cho, Soo-Whan;Kwon, Kyung-Lag;Chung, In-Jeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 2012
  • Due to the recent expansion of the Web 2.0 -based services, along with the widespread of smartphones, online social network services are being popularized among users. Online social network services are the online community services which enable users to communicate each other, share information and expand human relationships. In the social network services, each relation between users is represented by a graph consisting of nodes and links. As the users of online social network services are increasing rapidly, the SNS are actively utilized in enterprise marketing, analysis of social phenomenon and so on. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is the systematic way to analyze social relationships among the members of the social network using the network theory. In general social network theory consists of nodes and arcs, and it is often depicted in a social network diagram. In a social network diagram, nodes represent individual actors within the network and arcs represent relationships between the nodes. With SNA, we can measure relationships among the people such as degree of intimacy, intensity of connection and classification of the groups. Ever since Social Networking Services (SNS) have drawn increasing attention from millions of users, numerous researches have made to analyze their user relationships and messages. There are typical representative SNA methods: degree centrality, betweenness centrality and closeness centrality. In the degree of centrality analysis, the shortest path between nodes is not considered. However, it is used as a crucial factor in betweenness centrality, closeness centrality and other SNA methods. In previous researches in SNA, the computation time was not too expensive since the size of social network was small. Unfortunately, most SNA methods require significant time to process relevant data, and it makes difficult to apply the ever increasing SNS data in social network studies. For instance, if the number of nodes in online social network is n, the maximum number of link in social network is n(n-1)/2. It means that it is too expensive to analyze the social network, for example, if the number of nodes is 10,000 the number of links is 49,995,000. Therefore, we propose a heuristic-based method for finding the shortest path among users in the SNS user graph. Through the shortest path finding method, we will show how efficient our proposed approach may be by conducting betweenness centrality analysis and closeness centrality analysis, both of which are widely used in social network studies. Moreover, we devised an enhanced method with addition of best-first-search method and preprocessing step for the reduction of computation time and rapid search of the shortest paths in a huge size of online social network. Best-first-search method finds the shortest path heuristically, which generalizes human experiences. As large number of links is shared by only a few nodes in online social networks, most nods have relatively few connections. As a result, a node with multiple connections functions as a hub node. When searching for a particular node, looking for users with numerous links instead of searching all users indiscriminately has a better chance of finding the desired node more quickly. In this paper, we employ the degree of user node vn as heuristic evaluation function in a graph G = (N, E), where N is a set of vertices, and E is a set of links between two different nodes. As the heuristic evaluation function is used, the worst case could happen when the target node is situated in the bottom of skewed tree. In order to remove such a target node, the preprocessing step is conducted. Next, we find the shortest path between two nodes in social network efficiently and then analyze the social network. For the verification of the proposed method, we crawled 160,000 people from online and then constructed social network. Then we compared with previous methods, which are best-first-search and breath-first-search, in time for searching and analyzing. The suggested method takes 240 seconds to search nodes where breath-first-search based method takes 1,781 seconds (7.4 times faster). Moreover, for social network analysis, the suggested method is 6.8 times and 1.8 times faster than betweenness centrality analysis and closeness centrality analysis, respectively. The proposed method in this paper shows the possibility to analyze a large size of social network with the better performance in time. As a result, our method would improve the efficiency of social network analysis, making it particularly useful in studying social trends or phenomena.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

Influences of Forest Management Practices on pH and Electrical Conductivity in the Throughfall and Stemflow with the Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis Dominant Watershed (전나무림, 잣나무림 유역에서 수관통과우와 수간유하수의 수소이온농도 및 전기전도도에 미치는 산림시업의 영향)

  • Jeong, Yong-Ho;Kim, Kyong-Ha;Park, Jae-Hyeon
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.35 no.1 s.97
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    • pp.52-61
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    • 2002
  • This research was conducted to evaluate the effect of forest management practices on pH and electrical conductivity to get fundamental information on water purification capacity after forest operation. Rainfall, throughfall and stemflow were sampled at the study sites which consist of Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis in Gwangreung Experimental Forest for S months from May to November 1999. Mean pH of the throughfall of the beginning of the event was higher in management (thinning and pruning) sites of Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis stands than nonmanagement site of Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis stands. In addition, pH of the throughfall of the total amount of the event showed similar trends which are higher pH in the management sites compared with the non- management sites. This result indicates that managements such as thinning and pruning improve tree butler capacity of rainfall pH. According to the linear regression results, pH of the throughfall of the total amount of the event in non-management sites = 0.735${\times}$pH of the throughfall of the beginning of the event in non-management sites+1.849 ($R^2\;=\;0.82$) and pH of the throughfall of the total amount of the event in management sites= 0.863${\times}$pH of the throughfall of the beginning of the event in management sites +1.0242 ($R^2\;=\;0.87$). In case of stemflow pH, pH of the sternflow of the total amount of the event in non-management sites = 0.53${\times}$pH of the stemflow of the beginning of the event in non- management sites+2.7709 ($R^2\;=\;0.64$) and pH of the stemflow of the total amount of the event in management sites = 0.5854${\times}$pH of the stemflow of the beginning of the event in management sites+2.7045 ($R^2\;=\;0.65$). Electrical conductivity (EC) of the throughfall of the beginning and total amount of the event was highest in non- management site in Abies holophylla, followed by management sites in fsies Abies holophylla, non-management site in Pinus koraiensis, and management sites in Pinus koraiensis stands, respectively. According to the linear regression results, EC of the throughfall of the total amount of the event in non-managementsites = 0.4045${\times}$EC of the throughfall of the beginning of the event in non-management sites+26.766 ($R^2\;=\;0.69$) and EC of the throughfall of the total amount of the event in management sites = 0.6002${\times}$EC of the throughfall of the beginning of the event in management sites+8.0184 ($R^2\;=\;0.54$). In case of stemflow EC, EC of thestemflow of the total amount of the event in non-management sites = 0.6298${\times}$EC of the stemflow of the beginning of the event in non-management sites+11.582 ($R^2\;=\;0.72$) and pH of the stemflow of the total amount of the event in management sites =0.602${\times}$pH of the stemflow of the beginning of the event in management sites+20.783($R^2\;=\;0.49$).

The Absorption and Purification of Air Pollutants and Heavy Metals by Selected Trees in Kwangju (광주지역(光州地域)에서 주요(主要) 수목(樹木)의 대기오염물질(大氣汚染物質)과 중금속(重金屬) 흡수(吸收) 정화기능(淨化機能)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Cho, Hi Doo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.88 no.4
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    • pp.510-522
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    • 1999
  • The air pollutants ; $SO_2$, $SO{_4}^{-2}$, $NO{_3}^-$, $Cl^-$ are absorbed into soils through falling with dusts and rain from the atmosphere. The sources of heavy metal contaminants in the environments are agricultural and horticultural materials, sewage sludges, fossil fuel combustion, metallurgical industries, electronics and waste disposal etc.. The soils and hydrosphere can be polluted on the way of the circulation of these heavy metals. Studied pollutant anions are $SO{_4}^{-2}$, $NO{_3}^-$ and $Cl^-$ and heavy metals are Se, Mo, Zn, Cd, Pb, Mn, Cr, Co, V, As, Cu and Ni which are the elements to be concerned with the essentials for plants, with animal and human health. This study is with the aim of selecting the species of roadside trees and green space trees which have excellent absorption of air pollutants and heavy metals from the atmosphere and the soils in the urban area. Two areas are designated to carry out this study : urban area ; Kwangju city and rural area ; the yard of Forest Environment Institute of Chollanam-do, at Sanje-ri, Sampo-myum, Naju city, Chollanam-do (23km away from Kwangju). This study is carried out to understand the movement of anions and heavy metals from the soils to the trees in both areas, the absorption of anions and heavy metals from atmosphere into leaves and the amounts of anions and heavy metals in leaves and fine roots(< 1mm dia.) of roadside trees and green space trees in Kwangju and trees in the yard of Forest Environment Institute of Chollanam-do. The tree species selected for this study in both areas are Ginkgo biloba, Quercus acutissima, Cedrus deodara, Platanus occidentalis, Robinia pseudoacacia, Alnus japonica. Metasequoia glyptostroboides. Zekova serrata. Prunus serrulata var. spontanea, and Pinus densiflora. The results of the study are as follows : 1. $SO{_4}^{-2}$, $NO{_3}^-$ and $Cl^-$ concentrations are higher in the soils of the urban area than in those of the rural area, and $NO{_3}^-$ and $SO{_4}^{-2}$ are higher in the leaves than in the roots due to the absorption of the these pollutants through the stomata. 2. Ginkgo biloba, Robinia pseudoacacia. Zekova serrata, Quercus acutissima, and Platanus occidentalis can be adequated to the roadside trees and the environmental trees due to their good absorption of $NO{_3}^-$ and $SO{_4}^{-2}$. 3. Heavy metals in the soils of both areas are in the order of Mn > Zn > V > Cr > Pb > Ni > Cu > Mo> Cd, and in the leaves and roots of the trees in the both areas are in the order of Mn>Zn>Cr>Cu>V>Ni. Both orders are similar ones except V. There are more in the urban soils than in the rural soils in amount of Mn, Zn, Pb, V, Cu. 4. It is supposed that there is no antagonism between Mn and Zn in this study. 5. Se, Co and As are not detected in the soils, the leaves and the roots in both areas. Sn, Mo, Cd and Pb are also not detected in the leaves and roots in spite of considerable amount in the soils of both areas.

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