• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.9-19
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• 2009

This paper describes empirical approach methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of maritime transportation accident (MTA) of a merchant ship. The principal aim of this project is to estimate the risk of MTA that could degrade the ship safety by analyzing the underlying factors contributing to MTA based on the IMO's Formal Safety Assessment techniques and, by assessing the probabilistic risk level of MTA based on the quantitative risk assessment methodology. The probabilistic risk level of MTA to Risk Index (RI) composed with Probability Index (PI) and Severity Index (SI) can be estimated from proposed Maritime Transportation Accident Model (MTAM) based on Bayesian Network with Bayesian theorem Then the applicability of the proposed MTAM can be evaluated using the scenario group with 355 core damaged accident history. As evaluation results, the correction rate of estimated PI, $r_{Acc}$ is shown as 82.8%, the over ranged rate of PI variable sensitivity with $S_p{\gg}1.0$ and $S_p{\ll}1.0$ is shown within 10%, the averaged error of estimated SI, $\bar{d_{SI}}$ is shown as 0.0195 and, the correction rate of estimated RI, $r_{Acc}$(%), is shown as 91.8%. These results clearly shown that the proposed accident model and methodology can be use in the practical maritime transportation field.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.52 no.6
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• pp.755-767
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• 2014

Chlorine is one of the most produced and most used non-flammable chemical substances in the world even though its toxicity and high reactivity cause the ozone layer depletion. However, in modern life, it is impossible to live a good life without using Chlorine and its derivatives since they are being used as an typical ingredient in more than 40 percent of the manufactured goods including medicines, detergents, deodorant, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and plastic, etc. Even if Chlorine has been handled and distributed in various business (small and medium-sized businesses, water purification plants, distribution company, etc.), there have been few researches about its possible health hazard and transportation risks. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to make a detailed assessment of Chlorine-related risks and to model an index of chemicals transportation risks that is adequate for domestic circumstances. The assessment of possible health hazard and transportation risks was made on 13 kinds of hazardous chemicals, including liquid chlorine. This research may be contributed to standardizing the risk assessment of Chlorine and other hazardous chemicals by using an index of transportation risks.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.227-232
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• 2020

This paper develops a risk index based on an indicator of risk assessment in terms of coastal activity location and accident type. The risk index is derived from a formula which adds the consequence of failure to a vulnerability value, then subtracts the mitigation value. Specifically, the consequence of failure is the number of casualties in coastal activity locations. An indicator of vulnerability refers to coastal environment elements and social elements. A pointer of mitigation includes managerial and organizational elements that indicate the capabilities of coastal activities. A risk rating of coastal activity location is found from a risk matrix consisting of the accident location and type. The purpose of this study is to prevent accidents at coastal activity locations by allowing the Coastal police guard to monitor effectively and inform visitors of potential risks.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.225-234
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• 2013

The relationship between debris flow and topographical factors is essential for the reliable estimation of soil loss. The objective of this paper is to estimate stability index and soil loss for assessing landsliding risk caused by debris flow. SIMAP and RUSLE are used to estimate stability index and soil loss, respectively. The landsliding risk area estimated by using SIMAP is found to be different from the large land area estimated by RUSLE. It is found that the spatial distribution of soil cover significantly influences landsliding risk area. Results also indicate that stability index and soil loss, estimated by soil cover factor, improve the assessment of landsliding risk.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.1064-1073
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• 2020

The general situation of system composition and safety management of high-speed railway terminal is investigated and a comprehensive evaluation index system of operational security is established on the basis of railway laws and regulations and previous research results to evaluate the operational security management of the high-speed railway terminal objectively and scientifically. Index weight is determined by introducing interval eigenvalue method (IEM), which aims to reduce the dependence of judgment matrix on consistency test and improve judgment accuracy. Operational security status of a high-speed railway terminal in northwest China is analyzed using the traditional model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and a general technique idea and references for the operational security evaluation of the high-speed railway terminal are provided. IEM is introduced to determine the weight of each index, overcomes shortcomings of traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and improves the accuracy and scientificity of the comprehensive evaluation. Risk factors, such as terrorist attacks, bad weather, and building fires, are intentionally avoided in the selection of evaluation indicators due to the complexity of risk factors in the operation of high-speed railway passenger stations and limitation of the length of the paper. However, such risk factors should be considered in the follow-up studies.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.340-350
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• 2021

This paper proposes a decision support model for USVs to improve the accuracy of collision avoidance decision-making. It is formed by Navigation Safety Domain (NSD) and domain-based Collision Risk Index (CRI), capable of determining the collision stage and risk between multiple ships. The NSD is composed of a warning domain and a forbidden domain, which is constructed under the constraints of COLREGs (International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea). The proposed domain based CRI takes the radius of NSD in various encounter situations as threshold parameters. It is found that the value of collision risk in any directions can be calculated, including actual value and risk threshold. A catamaran USV and 6 given vessels are taken as study objects to validate the proposed model. It is found that the judgment of collision stage is accurate and the azimuth range of risk exists can be detected, hence the ships can take direct and effective collision avoidance measures. According to the relation between the actual value of CRI and risk threshold, the decision support rules are summarized, and the specific terms of COLREGs to be followed in each encounter situation are given.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.405-415
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• 2010

To assess the possible collision risk between Mokpo Harbour Bridge, which is under construction, and passing vessels, we proposed Real-Time Bridge-Vessel Collision Model (RT-BVCM) in this paper. The mathematical model of RT-BVCM consists of the causation probability by the vessel aberrancy due to navigation environments, the geometric probability by the structural feature of a bridge relative to a ship size and, the failure probability by the ship collision track and the stopping distance which is not to come to a stop before hitting the obstacles. Then, the probabilistic mathematical model represented as risk index with the risk level from 1 to 5. The merit of the proposed model to the collision model proposed by AASHTO (American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials) is that it can provide enough time to take adequate collision avoiding action. Through the simulation tests to the two kinds of test ships, 3,000 GT and 10,000 GT, it is cleary found that the proposed model can be used as a collision evaluation model to the passing vessel and Mokpo Harbour Bridge.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.78-84
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• 2020

The F&EI technique is one of the risk assessments with many advantages. It can save time and effort compared to quantitative risk assessment (QRA). By using the evaluation result of this technique, it is possible to check the effectiveness of the investment cost. In addition, a relative risk ranking can be created and used to establish the facility management cycle and to prioritize investment. However, evaluating the target process can be evaluated more than the actual risk since the LCCF, a loss prevention measure, is too limited. In addition, calculating premiums via this method can result in excessive premiums, making it difficult to evaluate the risk precisely. Therefore, new safety guard was added to the LCCF of the F&EI risk assessment with reference to HAZOP and LOPA techniques. Newly added LCCFs are Deflagration arrester, Check valve, SIS, and Vacuum beaker, etc. As a case study, F&EI risk assessment was performed on Acetone storage tank of a API (Active pharmaceutical ingredient) plant to compare actual MPPD. The estimated loss amount was 592,558$ for the existing technique and 563,571$ for the improved technique, which was reduced by about 5% compared to the previous one.This proved that a more precise evaluation is possible and that the efforts for safety at the workplace are reflected in the evaluation results.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.98-107
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to suggest a model for evaluation of a risk based value index for modular design alternatives in plant construction projects. Accordingly, 1) Setting the basic project cost and the scope to apply the module, 2) Evaluating the importance, easiness, and effectiveness index for Engineering, Procurement, Fabrication, transportation, and construction work, 3) Estimating the total project cost by analyzing the risk reserve Step, 4) Comparing the effectiveness index and total project cost for each modular design alternative, it was composed of the steps of deriving RVI. To verify such a model, Plan-A, which applied a module to one process, and Plan-B, which applied a module to three processes, were composed to evaluate RVI.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.143-152
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• 2020

Korean society experienced successive earthquakes exceeding 5.0 magnitude in the past three years resulting in an increasing concern about earthquake stability of urban infrastructures. This study focuses on the significant aspects of earthquake risk assessment for the cut-and-cover underground railway station based on two-dimensional dynamic numerical analysis. Presented are features from a case study performed for the railway station in Seoul, South Korea. The PLAXIS2D was employed for numerical simulation and input of the earthquake ground motion was chosen from Pohang earthquake records (M5.4). The paper shows key aspects of earthquake risk for soil-structure system varying important parameters including embedded depth, supported ground information, and applied seismicity level, and then draws several meaningful conclusions from the analysis results such as seismic risk assessment.