• Title/Summary/Keyword: Transition prediction

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Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis for Prediction of Postpartum Metabolic Diseases in Dairy Cows in an Organic Farm in Korea

  • Kim, Dohee;Choi, Woojae;Ro, Younghye;Hong, Leegon;Kim, Seongdae;Yoon, Ilsu;Choe, Eunhui;Kim, Danil
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.199-206
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    • 2022
  • Postpartum diseases should be predicted to prevent productivity loss before calving especially in organic dairy farms. This study was aimed to investigate the incidence of postpartum metabolic diseases in an organic dairy farm in Korea, to confirm the association between diseases and prepartum blood biochemical parameters, and to evaluate the accuracy of these parameters with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for identifying vulnerable cows. Data were collected from 58 Holstein cows (16 primiparous and 42 multiparous) having calved for 2 years on an organic farm. During a transition period from 4 weeks prepartum to 4 weeks postpartum, blood biochemistry was performed through blood collection every 2 weeks with a physical examination. Thirty-one (53.4%) cows (9 primiparous and 22 multiparous) were diagnosed with at least one postpartum disease. Each incidence was 27.6% for subclinical ketosis, 22.4% for subclinical hypocalcemia, 12.1% for retained placenta, 10.3% for displaced abomasum and 5.2% for clinical ketosis. Between at least one disease and no disease, there were significant differences in the prepartum levels of parameters like body condition score (BCS), non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA), total bilirubin (T-bil), direct bilirubin (D-bil) and NEFA to total cholesterol (T-chol) ratio (p < 0.05). The ROC analysis of each of these prepartum parameters had the area under the curve (AUC) <0.7. However, the ROC analysis with logistic regression including all these parameters revealed a higher AUC (0.769), sensitivity (71.0%), and specificity (77.8%). The ROC analysis with logistic regression including the prepartum BCS, NEFA, T-bil, D-bil, and NEFA to T-chol ratio can be used to identify cows that are vulnerable to postpartum diseases with moderate accuracy.

A Study on the Carbon Neutrality Scenario Model for Technology Application in Units of Space (공간 단위 탄소중립 기술적용 시나리오 모형(CATAS) 연구)

  • Park, Shinyoung;Choi, Yuyoung;Lee, Mina
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.63-69
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    • 2023
  • 'Carbon-neutrality Assessment based on Technology Application Scenario (CATAS)' provides an analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction effectiveness when applying carbon-neutrality technology to areas such as energy conversion, transportation, and buildings at certain spatial levels. As for the development scope of the model, GHG emission sources were analyzed for direct GHG emissions, and the boundary between direct and indirect emissions are set according to the spatial scope. The technical scope included nine technologies and forest sinks in the transition sector that occupies the largest portion of GHG emissions in the 2050 carbon neutral scenario. The carbon neutrality rate evaluation methodology consists of four steps: ① analysis of GHG emissions, ② prediction of energy production according to technology introduction, ③ calculation of GHG reduction, and ④ calculation of carbon neutrality rate. After the web-based CATAS-BASIC was developed, an analysis was conducted by applying the new and renewable energy distribution goals presented in the 「2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Promotion Plan」 of the Seoul Metropolitan Government. As a result of applying solar power, hydrogen fuel cell, and hydrothermal, the introduction of technology reduced 0.43 million tCO2eq of 1.49 million tCO2eq, which is the amount of emissions from the conversion sector in Seoul, and the carbon neutrality rate in the conversion sector was analyzed to be 28.94 %.

Identification and functional prediction of long non-coding RNAs related to skeletal muscle development in Duroc pigs

  • Ma, Lixia;Qin, Ming;Zhang, Yulun;Xue, Hui;Li, Shiyin;Chen, Wei;Zeng, Yongqing
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.1512-1523
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    • 2022
  • Objective: The growth of pigs involves multiple regulatory mechanisms, and modern molecular breeding techniques can be used to understand the skeletal muscle growth and development to promote the selection process of pigs. This study aims to explore candidate lncRNAs and mRNAs related to skeletal muscle growth and development among Duroc pigs with different average daily gain (ADG). Methods: A total of 8 pigs were selected and divided into two groups: H group (high-ADG) and L group (low-ADG). And followed by whole transcriptome sequencing to identify differentially expressed (DE) lncRNAs and mRNAs. Results: In RNA-seq, 703 DE mRNAs (263 up-regulated and 440 down-regulated) and 74 DE lncRNAs (45 up-regulated and 29 down-regulated) were identified. In addition, 1,418 Transcription factors (TFs) were found. Compared with mRNAs, lncRNAs had fewer exons, shorter transcript length and open reading frame length. DE mRNAs and DE lncRNAs can form 417 lncRNA-mRNA pairs (antisense, cis and trans). DE mRNAs and target genes of lncRNAs were enriched in cellular processes, biological regulation, and regulation of biological processes. In addition, quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis was used to detect the functions of DE mRNAs and lncRNAs, the most of DE mRNAs and target genes of lncRNAs were enriched in QTLs related to growth traits and skeletal muscle development. In single-nucleotide polymorphism/insertion-deletion (SNP/INDEL) analysis, 1,081,182 SNP and 131,721 INDEL were found, and transition was more than transversion. Over 60% of percentage were skipped exon events among alternative splicing events. Conclusion: The results showed that different ADG among Duroc pigs with the same diet maybe due to the DE mRNAs and DE lncRNAs related to skeletal muscle growth and development.

Combined analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought for hydrological drought prediction and early response - Focussing on the 2022-23 drought in the Jeollanam-do - (수문학적 가뭄 예측과 조기대응을 위한 기상-수문학적 가뭄의 연계분석 - 2022~23 전남지역 가뭄을 대상으로)

  • Jeong, Minsu;Hong, Seok-Jae;Kim, Young-Jun;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.195-207
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    • 2024
  • This study selected major drought events that occurred in the Jeonnam region from 1991 to 2023, examining both meteorological and hydrological drought occurrence mechanisms. The daily drought index was calculated using rainfall and dam storage as input data, and the drought propagation characteristics from meteorological drought to hydrological drought were analyzed. The characteristics of the 2022-23 drought, which recently occurred in the Jeonnam region and caused serious damage, were evaluated. Compared to historical droughts, the duration of the hydrological drought for 2022-2023 lasted 334 days, the second longest after 2017-2018, the drought severity was evaluated as the most severe at -1.76. As a result of a linked analysis of SPI (StandQardized Precipitation Index), and SRSI (Standardized Reservoir Storage Index), it is possible to suggest a proactive utilization for SPI(6) to respond to hydrological drought. Furthermore, by confirming the similarity between SRSI and SPI(12) in long-term drought monitoring, the applicability of SPI(12) to hydrological drought monitoring in ungauged basins was also confirmed. Through this study, it was confirmed that the long-term dryness that occurs during the summer rainy season can transition into a serious level of hydrological drought. Therefore, for preemptive drought response, it is necessary to use real-time monitoring results of various drought indices and understand the propagation phenomenon from meteorological-agricultural-hydrological drought to secure a sufficient drought response period.

A Characterization of Oil Sand Reservoir and Selections of Optimal SAGD Locations Based on Stochastic Geostatistical Predictions (지구통계 기법을 이용한 오일샌드 저류층 해석 및 스팀주입중력법을 이용한 비투멘 회수 적지 선정 사전 연구)

  • Jeong, Jina;Park, Eungyu
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.313-327
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    • 2013
  • In the study, three-dimensional geostatistical simulations on McMurray Formation which is the largest oil sand reservoir in Athabasca area, Canada were performed, and the optimal site for steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) was selected based on the predictions. In the selection, the factors related to the vertical extendibility of steam chamber were considered as the criteria for an optimal site. For the predictions, 110 borehole data acquired from the study area were analyzed in the Markovian transition probability (TP) framework and three-dimensional distributions of the composing media were predicted stochastically through an existing TP based geostatistical model. The potential of a specific medium at a position within the prediction domain was estimated from the ensemble probability based on the multiple realizations. From the ensemble map, the cumulative thickness of the permeable media (i.e. Breccia and Sand) was analyzed and the locations with the highest potential for SAGD applications were delineated. As a supportive criterion for an optimal SAGD site, mean vertical extension of a unit permeable media was also delineated through transition rate based computations. The mean vertical extension of a permeable media show rough agreement with the cumulative thickness in their general distribution. However, the distributions show distinctive disagreement at a few locations where the cumulative thickness was higher due to highly alternating juxtaposition of the permeable and the less permeable media. This observation implies that the cumulative thickness alone may not be a sufficient criterion for an optimal SAGD site and the mean vertical extension of the permeable media needs to be jointly considered for the sound selections.

Cyr61/CCN1 Overexpression Induces Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition Leading to Laryngeal Tumor Invasion and Metastasis and Poor Prognosis

  • Liu, Ying;Zhou, Yan-Dong;Xiao, Yu-Li;Li, Ming-Hua;Wang, Yu;Kan, Xuan;Li, Qiu-Ying;Lu, Jian-Guang;Jin, De-Jun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.2659-2664
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    • 2015
  • Background: To examine the expression of cysteine-rich 61 (Cyr61/CCN1) protein in laryngeal squamouscell carcinoma (LSCC) tissues, and its relationship with the tumor epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), invasion, metastasis, and prognosis. Materials and Methods: Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the expressions of Cyr61, Vimentin (Vim), and E-cadherin (E-cad) in 88 cases of LSCC tissues and 30 cases of tumor-adjacent normal tissues. Vim and E-cad were used as mesenchymal and epithelial markers, respectively, to determine the relationship between Cyr61 expression and the EMT of LSCC cells. In addition, clinical and histopathological data were combined to analyze the relationship between the positive-expression rates of Cyr61, Vim and E-cad and LSCC invasion, metastasis and prognosis. Results: In LSCC tissues, Vim expression rate was significantly higher than that of the tumor-adjacent tissues, whereas E-cad expression rate was significantly lower than that of the tumor-adjacent tissues. The Vim expression rate was significantly higher in stages T3 and T4 than in stages T1 and T2 LSCC tissues, whereas E-cad expression rate was significantly lower in stages T3 and T4 than in stages T1 and T2 LSCC tissues. Compared to the group without lymph node metastasis, the Vim expression rate was significantly higher and the E-cad expression rate was significantly lower in the group with lymph node metastasis. The expression rate of Cyr61 was significantly higher in LSCC tissues than in the tumor-adjacent normal tissues. In addition, the Cyr61 expression rate was higher in stages T3 and T4 than in stages T1 and T2 LSCC, and higher in the group with lymph node metastasis than in the group without lymph node metastasis. The Vim expression rate was significantly higher in the Cyr61 positive group than in the Cyr61 negative group, whereas the E-cad expression rate was significantly higher in the Cyr61 negative group than in the Cyr61 positive group. Survival analysis indicated that survival rates of Cyr61 positive, Vim positive and E-cad negative groups were significantly lower than that of Cyr61 negative, Vim negative and E-cad positive groups, respectively. Conclusions: Cyr61 expression is closely associated with LSCC invasion and lymph node metastasis. Overexpression of Cyr61 may induce EMT and therefore leads to LSCC invasion and metastasis and poor prognosis. Cyr61 may become a new maker for clinical prediction of LSCC invasion and metastasis and a new target for LSCC treatment.

Strategies about Optimal Measurement Matrix of Environment Factors Inside Plastic Greenhouse (플라스틱온실 내부 환경 인자 다중센서 설치 위치 최적화 전략)

  • Lee, JungKyu;Kang, DongHyun;Oh, SangHoon;Lee, DongHoon
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.161-170
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    • 2020
  • There is systematic spatial variations in environmental properties due to sensitive reaction to external conditions at plastic greenhouse occupied 99.2% of domestic agricultural facilities. In order to construct 3 dimensional distribution of temperature, relative humidity, CO2 and illuminance, measurement matrix as 3 by 3 by 5 in direction of width, height and length, respectively, dividing indoor space of greenhouse was designed and tested at experimental site. Linear regression analysis was conducted to evaluate optimal estimation method in terms with horizontal and vertical variations. Even though sole measurement point for temperature and relative humidity could be feasible to assess indoor condition, multiple measurement matrix is inevitably required to improve spatial precision at certain time domain such as period of sunrise and sunset. In case with CO2, multiple measurement matrix could not successfully improve the spatial predictability during a whole experimental period. In case with illuminance, prediction performance was getting smaller after a time period of sunrise due to systematic interference such as indoor structure. Thus, multiple sensing methodology was proposed in direction of length at higher height than growing bed, which could compensate estimation error in spatial domain. Appropriate measurement matrix could be constructed considering the transition of stability in indoor environmental properties due to external variations. As a result, optimal measurement matrix should be carefully designed considering flexibility of construction relevant with the type of property, indoor structure, the purpose of crop and the period of growth. For an instance, partial cooling and heating system to save a consumption of energy supplement could be successfully accomplished by the deployment of multiple measurement matrix.

A Study on the Volatility of Global Stock Markets using Markov Regime Switching model (마코브국면전환모형을 이용한 글로벌 주식시장의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.17-39
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

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Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.