• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.346-350
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• 2023

Trajectory prediction is an essential element for driving autonomous vehicles, and various trajectory prediction models have emerged with the development of deep learning technology. Convolutional neural network (CNN) is the most commonly used neural network architecture for extracting the features of visual images, and the latest models exhibit high performances. This study was conducted to identify an efficient CNN backbone model among the components of deep learning models for trajectory prediction. We changed the existing CNN backbone network of multiple-trajectory prediction models used as feature extractors to various state-of-the-art CNN models. The experiment was conducted using nuScenes, which is a dataset used for the development of autonomous vehicles. The results of each model were compared using frequently used evaluation metrics for trajectory prediction. Analyzing the impact of the backbone can improve the performance of the trajectory prediction task. Investigating the influence of the backbone on multiple deep learning models can be a future challenge.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.28-34
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• 2015

An analysis method of trajectory prediction has been suggested and the developed trajectory prediction module, which is an important functional component of the Arrival Manager (AMAN) of Jeju airport, has been tested by applying the suggested method. The objective of this method is to improve prediction performance of the trajectory prediction module. The trajectory prediction module predicts the trajectories based on the real-time track data and flight plans. Therefore, the suggested analysis method includes the simulation framework which is based on real-time playback, recording, and graphic display systems for testing. Besides, the definition of time error, which is a important index for the time based scheduling system, such as AMAN, is included in the suggested analysis method. An example of arrival time prediction accuracy improvement through the suggested analysis method has also been presented.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제15권7호
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• pp.2321-2338
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• 2021

Compared with vehicle trajectories, pedestrian trajectories have stronger degrees of freedom and complexity, which poses a higher challenge to trajectory prediction tasks. This paper designs a mode to divide the trajectory of pedestrians at a traffic intersection, which converts the trajectory regression problem into a trajectory classification problem. This paper builds a deep model for pedestrian trajectory prediction at intersections for the task of pedestrian short-term trajectory prediction. The model calculates the spatial correlation and temporal dependence of the trajectory. More importantly, it captures the interactive features among pedestrians through the Attention mechanism. In order to improve the training speed, the model is composed of pure convolutional networks. This design overcomes the single-step calculation mode of the traditional recurrent neural network. The experiment uses Vulnerable Road Users trajectory dataset for related modeling and evaluation work. Compared with the existing models of pedestrian trajectory prediction, the model proposed in this paper has advantages in terms of evaluation indicators, training speed and the number of model parameters.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.1562-1582
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• 2024

The prediction of pedestrian trajectory is conducive to reducing traffic accidents and protecting pedestrian safety, which is crucial to the task of intelligent driving. The existing methods mainly use the past pedestrian trajectory to predict the future deterministic pedestrian trajectory, ignoring pedestrian intention and trajectory diversity. This paper proposes a multi-modal trajectory prediction model that introduces pedestrian intention. Unlike previous work, our model makes multi-modal goal-conditioned trajectory pedestrian prediction based on the past pedestrian trajectory and pedestrian intention. At the same time, we propose a novel Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU) to process intention information dynamically. Compared with traditional GRU, our GRU adds an intention unit and an intention gate, in which the intention unit is used to dynamically process pedestrian intention, and the intention gate is used to control the intensity of intention information. The experimental results on two first-person traffic datasets (JAAD and PIE) show that our model is superior to the most advanced methods (Improved by 30.4% on MSE_0.5s and 9.8% on MSE_1.5s for the PIE dataset; Improved by 15.8% on MSE_0.5s and 13.5% on MSE_1.5s for the JAAD dataset). Our multi-modal trajectory prediction model combines pedestrian intention that varies at each prediction time step and can more comprehensively consider the diversity of pedestrian trajectories. Our method, validated through experiments, proves to be highly effective in pedestrian trajectory prediction tasks, contributing to improving traffic safety and the reliability of intelligent driving systems.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.123-129
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• 2002

This paper proposes a vehicle trajectory prediction method far application to vehicle-to-vehicle distance control. This method is based on 2-dimensional kinematics and a Kalman filter has been used to estimate acceleration of the object vehicle. The simulation results using the proposed control method show that the relative distance characteristics can be improved via the trajectory prediction method compared to the customary intelligent cruise control algorithm.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2000년도 추계학술대회논문집A
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• pp.647-652
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• 2000

This paper proposes a collision warning/avoidance algorithm using a trajectory prediction method. This algorithm is based on 2-dimensional kinematics and the Kalman filter has been used to obtain the information of the object vehicle. This algorithm has been investigated via computer simulation and showed a good trajectory prediction performance. The proposed collision warning/avoidance algorithm would enhanced driver acceptance for a collision warning/avoidance system.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제27권8호
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• pp.61-68
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• 2022

본 논문에서는 딥러닝 모델 기반 보행자의 GPS 경로를 예측하는 시스템을 제안한다. 보행자 경로 예측은 보행자의 위험 및 충돌 상황들을 알림을 통해 방지할 수 있으며, 다양한 마케팅 등 비즈니스 면에서도 영향을 끼치는 연구이다. 또한 보행자 뿐 아니라 많은 각광을 받고 있는 무인 이동수단의 경로 예측에도 활용될 수 있다. 다양한 경로 예측 방식들 중 본 논문은 GPS 데이터를 활용하여 경로를 예측하는 연구이다. 시계열 데이터인 보행자의 GPS 경로를 학습하여 다음 경로를 예측하도록 하는 딥러닝 모델 기반 연구이다. 본 논문에서는 보행자의 GPS 경로를 딥러닝 모델이 학습할 수 있도록하는 데이터 셋 구성 방식을 제시하였으며, 예측 범위에 큰 제약이 없는 경로 예측 딥러닝 모델을 제안한다. 본 연구의 경로 예측 딥러닝 모델에 적합한 파라메터들을 제시하였으며, 우수한 예측 성능을 보이는 결과를 제시한다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제10권7호
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• pp.3150-3170
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• 2016

In Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), logistics distribution and mobile e-commerce, the real-time, accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction has significant application value. Vehicle trajectory prediction can not only provide accurate location-based services, but also can monitor and predict traffic situation in advance, and then further recommend the optimal route for users. In this paper, firstly, we mine the double layers of hidden states of vehicle historical trajectories, and then determine the parameters of HMM (hidden Markov model) by historical data. Secondly, we adopt Viterbi algorithm to seek the double layers hidden states sequences corresponding to the just driven trajectory. Finally, we propose a new algorithm (DHMTP) for vehicle trajectory prediction based on the hidden Markov model of double layers hidden states, and predict the nearest neighbor unit of location information of the next k stages. The experimental results demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm is increased by 18.3% compared with TPMO algorithm and increased by 23.1% compared with Naive algorithm in aspect of predicting the next k phases' trajectories, especially when traffic flow is greater, such as this time from weekday morning to evening. Moreover, the time performance of DHMTP algorithm is also clearly improved compared with TPMO algorithm.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.145-157
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• 2023

Due to a recent increase in maritime activities in South Korea, the frequency of maritime distress is escalating and poses a significant threat to lives and property. The aim of this study was to validate a drift trajectory prediction technique to help mitigate the damages caused by maritime distress incidents. In this study, OpenDrift was verified using satellite drifter data from the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency. OpenDrift is a Monte-Carlo-based Lagrangian trajectory modeling framework that allows for considering leeway, an important factor in predicting the movement of floating marine objects. The simulation results showed no significant differences in the performance of drift trajectory prediction when considering leeway using four evaluation methods (normalized cumulative Lagrangian separation, root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and Euclidean distance). However, leeway improved the performance in an analysis of location prediction conformance for maritime search and rescue operations. Therefore, the findings of this study suggest that it is important to consider leeway in drift trajectory prediction for effective maritime search and rescue operations. The results could help with future research on drift trajectory prediction of various floating objects, including marine debris, satellite drifters, and sea ice.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2018

In this paper, we have proposed a prediction method for sabot-trajectory of projectile using high speed camera data analysis. Through analyzing trajectory of sabot with high speed camera data, we can extract its real velocity and acceleration including effects of friction force, pressure of flume, etc. Using these data, we suggest a prediction method for sabot-trajectory of projectile having variable acceleration, especially for minimum and maximum acceleration, by using interpolation method for velocity and acceleration data of sabot. Also we perform the projectile launching tests to achieve the trajectory of sabot in case of minimum and maximum thrust. Simulation results show that they are similar to real tests data, for example velocity, acceleration and the trajectory of sabot.