• 제목/요약/키워드: Traffic estimation

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An Estimation of Willingness to Pay for Advanced Public Transportation Services Using SP (선호의식 조사를 활용한 첨단 대중교통 서비스의 지불의사액 추정)

  • Lee, Baek Jin;Kim, Kwan Woo;Kim, Gyeong Seok;Oh, Sung Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.4D
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    • pp.433-441
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    • 2009
  • In the coming ubiquitous society, the importance of developing advanced public transportation systems (APTS) corresponding to individuals' needs and useful in their daily life is profound. In these regards, the study proposed new APTS services: Free internet access service and On-board real time traffic information service in public modes. A stated preference (SP) survey was performed to investigate individual's preference and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the proposed APTS services. Multinomial logit models (MNL) incorporating the heterogeneity of respondents were developed to analyze individuals' preference and the difference of WTP. Some results of the study showed that the respondents' preferences were significantly different by in-vehicle travel times (30 min, 60 min) and their socioeconomic background. More respondents prefer new APTS services when invehicle travel time takes longer. For the housewife and self-employed group, the mean WTP for on-board realtime traffic information was higher than that of free internet access services, while for the company employees and students group, the mean WTP was similar in both services.

Estimation of Gas-particle partitioning Coefficients (Kp) of Carcinogenic polycyclic Aromatic hydrocarbons in Carbonaceous Aerosols Collected at Chiang - Mai, Bangkok and hat-Yai, Thailand

  • Pongpiachan, Siwatt;Ho, Kin Fai;Cao, Junji
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.2461-2476
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    • 2013
  • To assess environmental contamination with carcinogens, carbonaceous compounds, water-soluble ionic species and trace gaseous species were identified and quantified every three hours for three days st three different atmospheric layer at the heart of chiang-Mai, bangkok and hat-Yai from December 2006 to February 2007. A DRI model 2001 Themal/Optical Carbon Analyzer with the IMPROVE thermal/optical reflectance (TOR) protocol was used to quantify the organic carbon(OC) and elemental carbon content in $PM_{10}$. Diurnal and vertical variability was also carefully investigated. In general, OC and EC contenttration shoeed the highest values at the monitoring period o 21.00-00.00 as consequences of human activities at night bazaar coupled with reduction of mixing layer, decreased wind speed and termination of photolysis nighttime. Morning peaks of carboaceous compounds were observed during the sampling period of 06:00 -09:00, emphasizing the main contribution of traffic emission in the three cities. The estimation of incremental lifetime partculate matter exposure (ILPE) raises concern of high risk of carbonaceous accumulation over workers and residents living close to the observatory sites. The average values of incremental lifrtime particulate matter exposure (ILPE) of total carbon at Baiyoke Suit Hotel and Baiyoke Sky Hotel are approsimately ten time shigher then those air sample collected at prince of songkla University Hat-Yai campus corpse incinerator and fish-can maufacturing factory but only slightly higher than those of rice straw burnig in Songkla province. This indicates a high risk of developing lung cancer and other respiratory diseases across workers and residents living in high buildings located in Pratunam area. Using knowledge of carbonaceous fractions in $PM_{10}$, one can estimate the gas-particle partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Dachs-Eisenreich model highlights the crucial role of adsorption in gas-particle partitioning of low molecular weight PAHs, whereas both absorption and adsorption tend to account for gas-particle partitioning of high molecular weight PAHs in urban residential zones of Thailand. Interestingly, the absorption mode alone plays a minor role in gas-partcle partitiining of PAHs in Chiang-Mai, Bangkok and hat-Yai.

Estimation of Annual Runway Capacity for Jeju International Airport Considering Aircraft Delays (항공기 지연시간을 고려한 제주국제공항 활주로 연간용량 산정)

  • Park, Jisuk;Yun, Seokjae;Lee, Youngjong;Baik, Hojong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.214-222
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    • 2015
  • Jeju International Airport has become the most delayed airport in Korea, due to increased demand in air passengers and unexpected local weather condition. Observing the demands continuously grow for a decade, the airport is expected to be saturated in the near future. As a part of effort to prepare effective and timely measure for this expected situation, airport planners seeks the annual runway capacity, i.e., the appropriate number of flight operations in a given year with tolerable delay. In practice, the FAA formula is frequently adopted for the capacity estimation. The method, however, has intrinsic issues: 1) the hourly capacity imbedded in the formula is not clearly defined and thus the estimated value is vulnerable to be subjective judgement, and 2) the formula doesn't consider aircraft delay resulted from runway congestion. In this paper, we explain a novel method for estimating the daily runway capacity and then converting to the annual capacity taking into account the aircraft delay. In this paper, average delay of aircraft was measured using microscopic air traffic simulation model. Daily capacity of the runways were analyzed based on the simulation outputs and the method to assess the yearly capacity is introduced. Using a microscopic simulation model named TAAM, we measure the average aircraft delay at various levels of flight demand, and then estimate the practical daily runway capacity. The estimated daily and annual runway capacities of Jeju airport are about 460 operations a day which is equal to 169,000 operations year. The paper discusses how to verify the simulation model, and also suggests potential enhancement of the method.

Analyzing the Relationship Between Precipitation and Transit Ridership Through a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model (SUR 모형을 이용한 강수량과 대중교통 승객 수간 관계 분석)

  • Shin, Kangwon;Choi, Keechoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2014
  • Weather condition is one of the crucial factors affecting travelers' mode choice. Nevertheless, there are numerous indefinite traffic phenomena under various weather conditions. This study was conducted to verify the hypothesis that transit riderships decrease as precipitation increases. To clarify the relationship between precipitation and transit ridership, a seemingly unrelated regression model was employed with data such as daily precipitation and daily transit riderships of 3 transit modes (bus, metro, and shuttle bus) collected in Busan for recent 24 months. The estimation results show that transit riderships decreased as the daily precipitation increased when the daily precipitation is greater or equal to 10mm/day (0.169%, 0.101%, and 0.172% reduction in bus, metro, and shuttle bus riderships, respectively, when the daily precipitation increased by 1mm). When comparing the impact of precipitation on transit riderships by modes using a cross-equation parameter restriction test, the decrease in metro ridership is relatively insensitive to the change in precipitation. However, the negative coefficient of precipitation in the metro ridership estimation model indicates that the transit users in Busan may alter their mode to taxi or automobile and/or may give up the trip itself in bad weather condition.

The estimation of selection probability on the preference of unbundled parking system and sales discount rate -targeted for the public apartment residents in Seoul- (공동주택 주차장 분리분양제의 선호 및 분양 할인율에 대한 선택 확률 추정 -서울시 공동주택 입주민을 대상으로-)

  • Chung, Sang-Woon;Rho, Jung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.587-595
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    • 2017
  • The study examinesthe hindrance factors including various laws and institutions with regard to the Unbundled Parking System (UPS) that has recently attracted the greatest attention as a way to manage traffic demand for sustainable development, efficient utilization of parking spaces, and to overcome the unstable housing market.The direction of improvement of related laws and institutions is also suggested. Its usage is proven by countries such as the United States of America and France, as they have already implemented this institution. To lay the foundation for the introduction of UPS of our own country, a survey on the preference for UPS was conducted. The survey equally divided 300 respondents into three clusters based on the sales price of apartments in Seoul. The analyses revealed that all three clusters have similar preferences (cluster 1: 68%, cluster 2: 62%, cluster 3: 65%) on UPS, and younger groups seem to answer in the affirmative more than the other age groups no matter what cluster they belong to. In conclusion, the results on the estimation of selection probability on the preference of unbundled parking system and sales discount rate are as follow. The groups of non-vehicle users have higher preference on UPS. When the discount rate is 14%, 69%, 77% and 62%ofrespondents would choose unbundled parking system for clusters 1, 2 and 3, respectively (₩6,370,000/PY,₩3,930,000/PY and ₩2,270,000/PY reduce when applying avg. sales price, respectively).

Development and application of GLS OD matrix estimation with genetic algorithm for Seoul inner-ringroad (유전알고리즘을 이용한 OD 추정모형의 개발과 적용에 관한 연구 (서울시 내부순환도로를 대상으로))

  • 임용택;김현명;백승걸
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2000
  • Conventional methods for collecting origin-destination trips have been mainly relied on the surveys of home or roadside interview. However, the methods tend to be costly, labor intensive and time disruptive to the trip makers, thus the methods are not considered suitable for Planning applications such as routing guidance, arterial management and information Provision, as the parts of deployments in Intelligent Transport Systems Motivated by the problems, more economic ways to estimate origin-destination trip tables have been studied since the late 1970s. Some of them, which have been estimating O-D table from link traffic counts are generally Entropy maximizing, Maximum likelihood, Generalized least squares(GLS), and Bayesian inference estimation etc. In the Paper, with user equilibrium constraint we formulate GLS problem for estimating O-D trips and develop a solution a1gorithm by using Genetic Algorithm, which has been known as a g1oba1 searching technique. For the purpose of evaluating the method, we apply it to Seoul inner ringroad and compare it with gradient method proposed by Spiess(1990). From the resu1ts we fond that the method developed in the Paper is superior to other.

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Estimating Travel Demand by Using a Spatial-Temporal Activity Presence-Based Approach (시.공간 활동인구 추정에 의한 통행수요 예측)

  • Eom, Jin-Ki
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.163-174
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    • 2008
  • The conventional four-step travel demand model is still widely used as the state-of-practice in most transportation planning agencies even though it does not provide reliable estimates of travel demand. In order to improve the accuracy of travel demand estimation, implementing an alternative approach would be critical as much as acquiring reliable socioeconomic and travel data. Recently, the role of travel demand model is diverse to satisfy the needs of microscopic analysis regarding various policies of travel demand management and traffic operations. In this context, the activity-based approach for travel demand estimation is introduced and a case study of developing a spatial-temporal activity presence-based approach that estimates travel demand through forecasting number of people present at certain place and time is accomplished. Results show that the spatial-temporal activity presence-based approach provides reliable estimates of both number of people present and trips actually people made. It is expected that the proposed approach will provide better estimates and be used in not only long-term transport plans but short-term transport impact studies with respect to various transport policies. Finally, in order to introduce the spatial-temporal activity presence-based approach, the data such as activity-based travel diary and land use based on geographic information system are essential.

OD trip matrix estimation from urban link traffic counts (comparison with GA and SAB algorithm) (링크관측교통량을 이용한 도시부 OD 통행행렬 추정 (GA와 SAB 알고리즘의 비교를 중심으로))

  • 백승걸;김현명;임용택;임강원
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2000
  • To cope with the limits of conventional O-D trip matrix collecting methods, several approaches have been developed. One of them is bilevel Programming method Proposed by Yang(1995), which uses Sensitivity Analysis Based(SAB) algorithm to solve Generalized Least Square(GLS) problem. However, the SAB a1gorithm has revealed two critical short-comings. The first is that when there exists a significant difference between target O-D matrix and true O-D matrix, SAB algorithm may not produce correct solution. This stems from the heavy dependance on the historical O-D information, in special when gravel Patterns are dramatically changed. The second is the assumption of iterative linear approximation to original Problem. Because of the approximation, SAB algorithm has difficulty in converging to Perfect Stackelberg game condition. So as to avoid the Problems. we need a more robust and stable solution method. The main purpose of this Paper is to show the problem of the dependency of Previous models and to Propose an alternative solution method to handle it. The Problem of O-D matrix estimation is intrinsically nonlinear and nonconvex. thus it has multiple solutions. Therefore it is necessary to require a method for searching globa1 solution. In this paper, we develop a solution algorithm combined with genetic algorithm(GA) , which is widely used as probabilistic global searching method To compare the efficiency of the algorithm, SAB algorithm suggested by Yang et al. (1992,1995) is used. From the results of numerical example, the Proposed algorithm is superior to SAB algorithm irrespective of travel patterns.

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Estimation of Dynamic Vertical Displacement using Artificial Neural Network and Axial strain in Girder Bridge (인공신경망과 축방향 변형률을 이용한 거더 교량의 동적 수직 변위 추정)

  • Ok, Su Yeol;Moon, Hyun Su;Chun, Pang-Jo;Lim, Yun Mook
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.1655-1665
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    • 2014
  • Dynamic displacements of structures shows general behavior of structures. Generally, It is used to estimate structure condition and trustworthy physical quantity directly. Especially, measuring vertical displacement which is affected by moving load is very important part to find or identify a problem of bridge in advance. However directly measuring vertical displacement of the bridge is difficult because of test conditions and restriction of measuring equipment. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to suggest estimation method of bridge displacement to overcome constrain conditions, restriction and so on. Horizontal strain and vertical displacement which are measured by appling random moving load on the bridge are applied for learning and verification of ANN. Measured horizontal strain is used to learn ANN to estimate vertical displacement of the bridge. Numerical analysis is used to acquire learning data for axis strain and vertical displacement for applying ANN. Moving load scenario which is made by vehicle type and vehicle distance time using Pearson Type III distribution is applied to analysis modeling to reflect real traffic situation. Estimated vertical displacement in respect of horizontal strain according to learning result using ANN is compared with vertical displacement of experiment and it presents vertical displacement of experiment well.

A Quantitative Approach to the influence on the South Korean Air Transportation System in the Event of Volcanic Ash Dispersal (화산재에 따른 국내항공교통의 영향에 대한 정량화 방안)

  • LEE, Jiseon;YOON, Yoonjin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.318-329
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    • 2016
  • There has been a growing interest on the effect of volcanic eruption on the aviation safety, air travel and economy especially after the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland. Since volcanic eruption is influential on a large geographic region, the effect usually extends to other neighboring countries. Korea also has an active volcano named Mountain Baekdu. Hence, the need to estimate in advance the quantitative impact of the potential eruption of Mt. Baekdu on South Korean air transportation system. However, previous studies with quantitative estimation were confined to the calculation of the direct economic loss from shut down of the airports, grounding of airlines, and trade deficits caused by the eruption. Therefore, this paper introduces a new approach to assess more accurate impact simultaneously considering volcanic ash dispersal and aviation routes. This approach is then applied to a virtual scenario to predict the damage to air traffic. With further development, this method can help estimate the damage in the air transportation industry in more accurate and faster ways. Prediction outcomes can also be utilized in setting up the emergency response plan for the air transportation industry and contribute to the creation of more proactive and predictive measures in the future.