• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.31-61
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value-such as minimum revenue guarantee-while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk-calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium-is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.30-44
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• 2020

The application of PPLT is difficult to analyze and judge only from the effects of the delay time. In this study, the application of PPLT was proposed using not only the delay time of PLT and PPLT due to the change in traffic volume and the number of opposite straight lanes but also the traffic volume of passing a left turn and the number of conflict risks as indicators. According to the analysis, the more left-turn traffic than capacity and the less opposite-straight volume, the greater the PPLT effect. On the other hand, if the left-turn traffic is below capacity, the delay time will be reduced partially, but the overall passing left turn volume will not increase, and the conflict risk will increase. In addition, the conflict risk increases in the third lane or higher. Moreover, the difference of passing left-turn volume between PLT and PPLT showed a pattern similar to the delay time difference, and the PPLT coverage was wider than the difference in delay time and was associated more with the conflict risk numbers. Therefore, it would be reasonable to use passing left-turn traffic primarily, consider the delay time below the left-turn capacity, and consider the conflicting risk numbers simultaneously at or above the opposite straight three lanes.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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• v.49 no.10
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• pp.34-42
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• 2012

This paper analyses the energy saving basic power models in core IP networks, and proposes the adaptive buffer and burst scheme which is a possible energy saving method, and its implementation algorithm in core IP networks. Especially this paper describes the adaptive buffer and burst scheme dynamically varying the buffering interval B according to the input traffic volume of ingress router, and explains the operation principle of proposed scheme. This method is to adjust the buffering interval B according to input traffic volume of ingress router, that is increasing the interval B when input traffic volume is low, and decreasing the interval B when input traffic volume is high between some given interval regions. This method can gets the high energy saving effect as decreasing the transition number of idle/active in networks when input traffic volume is low, and decreasing the transition number of idle/active by the continuous of burst packets in transit router when input traffic volume is high. This paper shows the increasing of asleep rate for the energy saving of core IP networks and confirms the energy saving of core IP networks by the computer simulation. We confirmed that proposed method can be save the energy of IP networks by properly trade off network performances.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.153-159
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• 2016

Gwangyang traffic safety designated area is composed of 3 fairways (Deep water fairway, inbound fairway, and outbound fairway). However, inbound vessels can't use this passage because of Samyeo rock and artificial fishing banks in inbound route. The problem with the rocks and artificial fishing banks has been raised by ship navigators and authorities of the port. This research is about the safety evaluation and management plan of the passage, and we conducted maritime traffic simulation using a model based on a ship operator risks. As a result, assuming that future marine traffic volume is the same as the present, and if the ship operators use 3 fairways and not two, it showed risk reduction of 46.4 % (vessels over 50,000 DWT using DW route) and 57.1 % (vessels over 10,000 DWT using DW route). Also, in a traffic volume condition which is the same as the present, to induce vessels over 50,000 DWT to use DW route is effective in mitigating of risks. Meanwhile, in a condition which increased the traffic volume by 150 %, it is more effective to induce vessels to use DW route. This research is the result of analysis using the model based on ship operator risks, and not cost-effectiveness analysis on the removal of Samyeo rock and artifical fishing banks. This research is expected to be used on setting up the sea route and management plan (particularly, restriction on passing DW route).

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.323-330
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• 2012

Manila Bay is home to the Port of Manila with three harbors: North Harbor, South Harbor and MICT(Manila International container Terminal). There is an adjacent fishing port to the north and another port across the Bay, the Limao Port. This study focuses on the volume of traffic movement in the Bay area taken from Manila VTMS raw data of the arrival and departure movements only. It is a two-year period of study of 2010 and 2011 traffic volume. It divides the data according to their numbers; to their sizes measured in gross tons; to the time of vessels' movements, whether daytime or night-time; and to each voyage trade: domestic or foreign. Quantitative values are calculated from the raw data based on the whole population of the two-year period. The results are illustrated by tables and graphs. Statistical measures are applied to determine the spread and frequencies of the data and test any significance from the hypotheses. These are shown in the tabulated form and interpreted to give a better picture of the frequency and volume of traffic. In the end, a summary is offered where it is hoped that this paper will propel further studies of improving the safety behavior in the premier port of the country.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.31-40
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• 2003

Unsignalized intersections are classified into two-way-stop-controlled(TWSC) and all-way-stop-controlled(AWSC) intersections for the analysis of capacity and level of service. There is no AWSC intersection in Korea, but non-controlled intersections are common. Non-controlled intersections are operated only by the driver's decision without any control. However, the study for the analysis of capacity and level of service of the non-controlled intersection has been rare. As the first stage research, this study aims to determine the measure-of-effectiveness (MOE) for the performance evaluation of non-controlled intersections. The relationships between traffic volume and the intersection passing time (delay) and number of conflicts on each intersection are analyzed. It was found that the number of conflicts were more sensitive to the traffic volume compared with the delay. It means that number of conflicts can be the MOE for the performance of non-controlled intersection. The analysis of the number of conflicts and traffic volume showed a linear relationship, so that traffic volume can also be an MOE. The level of service of non-controlled intersection can be determined with either of the MOE's. Since the performance is also influenced by the ratio of traffic volumes of crossing streets, the traffic volume should be adjusted by the ratio. The capacity of non-controlled intersection was suggested to be 2,000veh/hr referring that of AWSC intersection in the USHCM. The criteria was suggested by evenly dividing the traffic volumes based on the capacity.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.61-70
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to analyze the accuracy of traffic volume forecast by comparing an estimated to real traffic volume. For this study, total 10 sections of national highways, which are planned in 1980s and 1990s, were selected and traffic analysis data for highway construction were collected. In addition, targeted 10 sections were categorized into network-related and -unrelated sections. In the analysis of inaccuracy between the estimated and real traffic, for network-related sections, appeared to have lower inaccuracy. As time goes on after traffic open, inaccuracy between the estimated and real traffic appeared to be lower. In various section lengths, the longer the section length, the higher the inaccuracy is. Using 3 years passed data after traffic open, national highway have lower inaccuracy than expressway. However, the traffic analysis according to traffic open time resulted in little change of the inaccuracy.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.251-257
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• 2003

In this paper, we wish to construct a optimal traffic cycle using wire remote control. if police vehicle or ambulance suddenly enter the traffic Intersection, it will increase the traffic accident. In this paper, wireless traffic light use the radio traffic control signal and research about the hardware manufacture to check special detectors on urgency vehicles may safety and rapidly enter traffic intersection. Also, this paper present a traffic signal control conditions that analyzes different traffic intersection flows in cases of saturated flows, where the real traffic volume demand is large and the capacity constraints of bottlenecks have significant effects on the flow patterns. Through computer simulation this wireless traffic light has been proven to be much more safety and efficient than fixed traffic signal light which does not consider emergency vehicles for safety escort.

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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• summer
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• pp.365-370
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• 2004

In this paper, we wish to construct a optimal traffic cycle using wire remote control. if police vehicle or ambulance suddenly enter the traffic intersection, it will increase the traffic accident. In this paper, wireless traffic light use the radio traffic control signal and research about the hardware manufacture to check special detectors on urgency vehicles may safety and rapidly enter traffic intersection. Also, this paper present a traffic signal control conditions that analyzes different traffic intersection flows in cases of saturated flows, where the real traffic volume demand is large and the capacity constraints of bottlenecks have significant effects on the flow patterns. Through computer simulation this wireless traffic light has been proven to be much more safety and efficient than fixed traffic signal light which does not considering emergency vehicles for safety escort.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.128-133
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• 2017

This study deals with the roundabout traffic accidents by traffic impeding factor. The purpose of this study is to comparatively analyze the characteristics of accidents and to develop the accident models. In pursuing the above, this study used a statistical program SPSS 20.0 to analyze 2,342 accidents occurred within 79 roundabouts in Korea. The main results are as follows. First, 4 accident models which were all statistically significant were developed. Second, the traffic volume and width of right-turn-only lane were analyzed to be common variable in the bus stop related models. The variables such as right-turn-only lane, street light, turning radius of entry lane were selected as specific variables. Especially street light and turning radius of entry lane were evaluated to have negative effects to the accidents. It is, therefore, essential to install the street light and place a sufficient turning radius in order to reduce the roundabout accidents. Finally, the traffic volume and number of entry lane were analyzed to be common variable in the on-street parking related models. Also, the width of right-turn-only lane and bus stop were evaluate to be specific variables in the model with on-street parking. This can be expected to give some implications to making the accident reduction guidelines.