• Title/Summary/Keyword: Traffic Prediction Model

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Development of Predicting Model for Livestock Infectious Disease Spread Using Movement Data of Livestock Transport Vehicle (가축관련 운송차량 통행 데이터를 이용한 가축전염병 확산 예측모형 개발)

  • Kang, Woong;Hong, Jungyeol;Jeong, Heehyeon;Park, Dongjoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.78-95
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    • 2022
  • The result of previous studies and epidemiological invstigations for infectious diseases epidemic in livestock have shown that trips made by livestock-related vehicles are the main cause of the spread of these epidemics. In this study, the OD traffic volume of livestock freight vehicle during the week in each zone was calculated using livestock facility visit history data and digital tachograph data. Based on this, a model for predicting the spread of infectious diseases in livestock was developed. This model was trained using zonal records of foot-and-mouth disease in Gyeonggi-do for one week in January and February 2015 and in positive, it was succesful in predicting the outcome in all out of a total 13 actual infected samples for test.

Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease (전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현)

  • Kim, Eungyeong;Lee, Seok;Byun, Young Tae;Lee, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Taikjin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2013
  • The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.

Economic Analysis of Long-life Asphalt Pavements using KoPMS (한국형 포장관리시스템을 활용한 장수명 아스팔트 포장의 경제성 분석)

  • Do, Myungsik;Kwon, Sooahn;Baek, Jongeun;Choi, Seunghyun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2016
  • PURPOSES : Long-life asphalt pavements are used widely in developed countries. In order to be able to devise an effective maintenance strategy for such pavements, in this study, we evaluated the performance of the long-life asphalt pavements constructed along the national highways in South Korea. Further, an economic evaluation of the long-life asphalt pavements was performed based on a life-cycle cost analysis. We aimed to devise a model for evaluating the performance of long-life asphalt pavements using the national highway pavement management system (PMS) database as well as for analyzing the economic feasibility of such pavements, in order to promote their use in South Korea. METHODS : The maintenance history and pavement performance data were obtained from the national highway PMS database. The pavement performances for a total of 292 sections of 10 lanes (5 northbound lanes and 5 eastbound lanes) of national highways were used in this study. Models to predict the performances of hot mix asphalt (HMA) and long-life asphalt pavements under two distinct traffic conditions were developed using a simple regression method. Further, the economic feasibility of long-life asphalt pavements was evaluated using the Korea Pavement Management System (KoPMS). RESULTS : We developed service-life prediction models based on the traffic volume and the equivalent of single-axle load and found that long-life asphalt pavements have service lives 50% longer than those of HMA pavements. Further, the results of the economic analysis showed that long-life asphalt pavements are superior in terms of various economic indexes, including user cost, delay cost, total cost, and user benefits, even though their maintenance cost is higher than that of HMA pavements. A comparison of the economic feasibilities of the various groups showed that group A is superior to HMA pavements in all aspects except in terms of the maintenance criterion (crack 20% or higher) as per the NPV index. However, the long-life asphalt pavements in group B were superior in terms of the maintenance criterion (crack 25% or higher) regardless of the economic feasibility. CONCLUSIONS : The service life of long-life asphalt pavements was found to be approximately 50% longer than that of HMA pavements, regardless of the traffic volume characteristics. The economic feasibility of long-life asphalt pavements was evaluated based on the KoPMS. The results of the economic analysis were the following: long-life asphalt pavements are exceptional in terms of almost all factors, such as user cost, delay cost, total cost, and user benefit; however, the exception is the maintenance cost. Further, the economic feasibility of the long-life asphalt pavements in group B was found to be better than that of the HMA pavements (crack 25% or higher).

A Study on the Propagation Model according to the Geometric Structures of Roads (도로의 기하구조에 따른 전파모델 연구)

  • Kim, Song-Min
    • 전자공학회논문지 IE
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.31-36
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    • 2009
  • This study was to simulate it that the sending receiving vehicles run on the general national roads with the one-way two-lanes at 80[km/h] speed. This study was to select 280[m] radius of curvature based on the statistical data with high rate of traffic accidents, 140[m] length of direct roads considering the stopping stadia, 90[m] length of curve, and 8 points of curved roads at 11.25[m] intervals. As a result above, when the distance between the sending and receiving vehicles became more than 111[m], the propagation path of reflected wave by the adjacent vehicles became longer than the propagation path of reflected wave by the left/right reflectors because the number of repeated reflection increased. In this study, the repeated reflection for the propagation's reach to the receiving vehicles was about $1{\sim}2$[times] as it supposed it less than 111[m]. Accordingly, it found out that the propagation path of reflected wave received through the left/right reflectors was about $1{\sim}1.5[m]$ larger than the reflected wave produced by the adjacent vehicles regardless of lanes on which the sending and receiving vehicles were located.

Evaluation of 4.75-mm Nominal Maximum Aggregate Size (NMAS) Mixture Performance Characteristics to Effectively Implement Asphalt Pavement System (4.75 mm 공칭 최대 골재 치수 아스팔트 혼합물의 효과적인 포장 시스템 적용을 위한 공용성 특성 평가 연구)

  • Chun, Sanghyun;Kim, Kukjoo;Park, Bongsuk
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2016
  • PURPOSES : This study primarily focused on evaluating the performance characteristics of 4.75-mm nominal maximum aggregate size (NMAS) asphalt mixtures for their more effective implementation to a layered flexible pavement system. METHODS : The full-scale pavements in the FDOT's accelerated pavement testing (APT) program, including 4.75-mm mixtures at the top with different thicknesses and asphalt binder types, were considered for the faster and more realistic evaluation of the rutting performance. The results of superpave indirect tensile (IDT) tests and hot-mix asphalt fracture mechanics (HMA-FM) based model predictions were used for cracking performance assessments. RESULTS : The results indicated that the rutting performance of pavement structures with 4.75-mm mixtures may not be as good as to those with the typical 12.5-mm mixtures, and pavement rutting was primarily confined to the top layer of 4.75-mm mixtures. This was likely due to the relatively higher mixture instability and lower shear resistance compared to 12.5-mm mixtures. The energy ratio (ER) and HMA-FM based model performance prediction results showed a potential benefit of 4.75-mm mixtures in enhanced cracking resistance. CONCLUSIONS : In relation to their implementation, the best use of 4.75-mm mixtures seem to be as a surface course for low-traffic-volume applications. These mixtures can also be properly used as a preservation treatment that does not necessarily last as long as 12.5-mm NMAS structural mixes. It is recommended that adequate thicknesses and binder types be considered for the proper application of a 4.75-mm mixture in asphalt pavements to effectively resist both rutting and cracking.

Prediction of Rheological Properties of Asphalt Binders Through Transfer Learning of EfficientNet (EfficientNet의 전이학습을 통한 아스팔트 바인더의 레올로지적 특성 예측)

  • Ji, Bongjun
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.348-355
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    • 2021
  • Asphalt, widely used for road pavement, has different required physical properties depending on the environment to which the road is exposed. Therefore, it is essential to maximize the life of asphalt roads by evaluating the physical properties of asphalt according to additives and selecting an appropriate formulation considering road traffic and climatic environment. Dynamic shear rheometer(DSR) test is mainly used to measure resistance to rutting among various physical properties of asphalt. However, the DSR test has limitations in that the results are different depending on the experimental setting and can only be measured within a specific temperature range. Therefore, in this study, to overcome the limitations of the DSR test, the rheological characteristics were predicted by learning the images collected from atomic force microscopy. Images and rheology properties were trained through EfficientNet, one of the deep learning architectures, and transfer learning was used to overcome the limitation of the deep learning model, which require many data. The trained model predicted the rheological properties of the asphalt binder with high accuracy even though different types of additives were used. In particular, it was possible to train faster than when transfer learning was not used.

Machine Learning Assisted Information Search in Streaming Video (기계학습을 이용한 동영상 서비스의 검색 편의성 향상)

  • Lim, Yeon-sup
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.361-367
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    • 2021
  • Information search in video streaming services such as YouTube is replacing traditional information search services. To find desired detailed information in such a video, users should repeatedly navigate several points in the video, resulting in a waste of time and network traffic. In this paper, we propose a method to assist users in searching for information in a video by using DBSCAN clustering and LSTM. Our LSTM model is trained with a dataset that consists of user search sequences and their final target points categorized by DBSCAN clustering algorithm. Then, our proposed method utilizes the trained model to suggest an expected category for the user's desired target point based on a partial search sequence that can be collected at the beginning of the search. Our experiment results show that the proposed method successfully finds user destination points with 98% accuracy and 7s of the time difference by average.

A Study on Evaluation of Consistency Using 3-Dimensional Sight Distance (3차원시거를 이용한 도로일관성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Je-Jin;Oh, Young-Wook;Kang, Jeong-Gyu;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2008
  • While driving a highway, A driver gets lots of information through geometrical structure, traffic situation, signs on the road. He gets most of the information by visual sense. Acceleration or deceleration and driving direction depend on sight distance. Therefore, it's essential to secure a driver's sight distance for a safe drive. However, design guides of geometrical structure and sight distance suggest respective standards of horizontal and vertical alignment. They do not indicate quantitative standard of combined alignment. Currently, element separated on a two-dimensional projected plane are available, but they do not guarantee safe and pleasant design. I will use the existent model analysing three-dimensional sight distance through mathematical calculation and sort a variety of geometrical structure element and type. In these researches, we will look at how much three-dimensional sight distance is overestimated or underestimated compared to two-dimensional. I will develop a program which predicts traffic velocity on the curvature of two-lane provincial road. stopped sight distance and three-dimensional sight distance will be compared at a predicted drive velocity. I will suggest the way to evaluate road consistency.

Development of Predicting Models of the Operating Speed and Operating environment Satisfaction Model in Expressways (고속도로의 주행속도예측 및 주행환경만족도 모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jang-Uk;Jang, Il-Jun;Kim, Jeong-Hyeon;Lee, Su-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.117-131
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    • 2009
  • When most drivers take to the freeway, they don't necessarily pay attention to the geometric design. They expect proper design by depending on their own senses and recognition. When they evaluate the features of traveling on the freeway, they can think differently than engineers. The design needs to predict the exact speed of the driver to satisfy the driver's expectation, safety, pleasure and so on. This study categorized the factors influencing the speed of six freeways considering geometric and operational features to make a prediction model of speed. The model used multiple regression with these factors and produced statically appropriate results. This study utilized the principle component analysis and the quantification II analysis based on the image data of the satisfaction of the traveling environment collected through individual interviews. As a result, this study found the factors of satisfaction in a traveling environment. It made a satisfaction model of the traveling environment on freeways considering the change of driver's actual recognition and societal recognition using structural equations and the quantification II theory. Through the model made in this study, This model can present not only qualitative factors like satisfaction of traveling environment on freeways, but also the quantitative elements like speed. What is important is the evaluation of features of traveling on freeways reflected in the recognition and traffic environment felt by drivers.

A Path Travel Time Estimation Study on Expressways using TCS Link Travel Times (TCS 링크통행시간을 이용한 고속도로 경로통행시간 추정)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Seok;Jeon, Gyeong-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.209-221
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    • 2009
  • Travel time estimation under given traffic conditions is important for providing drivers with travel time prediction information. But the present expressway travel time estimation process cannot calculate a reliable travel time. The objective of this study is to estimate the path travel time spent in a through lane between origin tollgates and destination tollgates on an expressway as a prerequisite result to offer reliable prediction information. Useful and abundant toll collection system (TCS) data were used. When estimating the path travel time, the path travel time is estimated combining the link travel time obtained through a preprocessing process. In the case of a lack of TCS data, the TCS travel time for previous intervals is referenced using the linear interpolation method after analyzing the increase pattern for the travel time. When the TCS data are absent over a long-term period, the dynamic travel time using the VDS time space diagram is estimated. The travel time estimated by the model proposed can be validated statistically when compared to the travel time obtained from vehicles traveling the path directly. The results show that the proposed model can be utilized for estimating a reliable travel time for a long-distance path in which there are a variaty of travel times from the same departure time, the intervals are large and the change in the representative travel time is irregular for a short period.