• 제목/요약/키워드: Traditional forecasting

검색결과 144건 처리시간 0.225초

성역할 관련 태도가 강간통념 수용에 미치는 영향 (The Influence of Gender-Role Related Attitudes to the Acceptance of the Rape Myth)

  • 김애리;박정열
    • 기본간호학회지
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.98-106
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to identify the relationship between college students' acceptance of the rape myth and variables in gender-role attitude, which have been known to forecast the acceptance of the rape myth. Method: This study was a survey research. Data were collected from May 1, 2006 to February 31, 2007 with 240 undergraduate students. Descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation coefficients, and regression analysis with SPSSWIN 12.0 program were used for data analysis. Results: Men were more acceptable to the rape myth than women. Men were very likely to see the occurrence of rape incidents as the rapist being provoked by women, and this attitude made them misunderstand and perceive women as responsible for the occurrence of the incident. Women on the other deny their idea. As a result of analyzing the difference between males and females in attitudes related to gender-role, male students were shown to have a much more traditional and patriarchal attitude than female students. Conclusion: It was found that a hostile attitude toward women and the justification of violence to others act as the main factors in forecasting the acceptance of the rape myth.

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Prediction of the Major Factors for the Analysis of the Erosion Effect on Atomic Oxygen in LEO Satellite Using a Machine Learning Method (LSTM)

  • Kim, You Gwang;Park, Eung Sik;Kim, Byung Chun;Lee, Suk Hoon;Lee, Seo Hyun
    • 항공우주시스템공학회지
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.50-56
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we investigated whether long short-term memory (LSTM) can be used in the future to predict F10.7 index data; the F10.7 index is a space environment factor affecting atomic oxygen erosion. Based on this, we compared the prediction performances of LSTM, the Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (which is a traditional statistical prediction model), and the similar pattern searching method used for long-term prediction. The LSTM model yielded superior results compared to the other techniques in the prediction period starting from the max/min points, but presented inferior results in the prediction period including the inflection points. It was found that efficient learning was not achieved, owing to the lack of currently available learning data in the prediction period including the maximum points. To overcome this, we proposed a method to increase the size of the learning samples using the sunspot data and to upgrade the LSTM model.

3차원 수직·수평 연결 네트워크 건축 공간분석을 위한 보행에너지 가중 Visibility ERAM 모델 구축 (The Establishment of Walking Energy-Weighted Visibility ERAM Model to Analyze the 3D Vertical and Horizontal Network Spaces in a Building)

  • 최성필;박근송;최재필
    • 대한건축학회논문집:계획계
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    • 제34권11호
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to establish a walking energy weighted ERAM model that can predict the pedestrian volume by the connection structure of the vertical and horizontal spaces within a three-dimensional building. The process of building a walking-energy weighted ERAM model is as follows. First, the spatial graph was used to reproduce three-dimensional buildings with vertical and horizontal spatial connection structures. Second, the walking energy was measured on the spatial graph. Third, ERAM model was used to apply weights with spatial connection properties in random walking environment, and the walking energy weights were applied to the ERAM model to calculate the walk energy weighted ERAM values and visualize the distribution of pedestrian flow. To verify the validation of the established model, existing and proposed spatial analysis models were compared to real space. The results of this study are as follows : The model proposed in this study showed as much elaborated estimation of pedestrian traffic flow in real space as in traditional spatial analysis models, and also it showed much higher level of forecasting pedestrian traffic flow in real space than existing models.

Numerical modeling of concrete conveying capacity of screw conveyor based on DEM

  • Yu, Wenda;Zhang, Ke;Li, Dong;Zou, Defang;Zhang, Shiying
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제29권 6호
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    • pp.361-374
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    • 2022
  • On the premise of ensuring that the automatic and quantitative discharging function of concrete conveyors is met, the accuracy of the weight forecast by the mathematical model of the screw conveying volume is improved, and the error of the weight of the concrete parts and the accumulation thickness is reduced. In this paper, the discrete element method (DEM) is used to simulate the macroscopic flow of concrete. Using the concrete discrete element model, the size of the screw conveyor is set, and establish the response model between the influencing factors (process and structure) and the concrete mass flow rate according to the design points of the screw discharging experiment. The nonlinear data fitting method is used to obtain the volumetric efficiency function under the influence of process and structural factors, and the traditional screw conveying volume model is improved. The mass flow rate of concrete predicted by the improved mathematical model of screw conveying volume is consistent with the test results. The model can accurately describe the conveying process of concrete and achieve the purpose of improving the accuracy of forecasting the weight of discharged concrete.

Water projects and technologies in Asia: Historical perspective

  • Hyoseop Woo
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.24-24
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    • 2023
  • This presentation highlights the IAHR book, recently published last April, of which the author is the editor-in-chief, on the historical water projects and traditional water technologies of international interest in the Asian region, addressing information on past water projects (mostly before the 20th century) in the regions that are technically and culturally of interest and educationally valuable. The book explores historical water projects in these regions, presenting technologies used at the time, including calculation and forecasting methods, measurement, material, labor, methodologies, and even water culture. Through this book, it is expected that the old Asian wisdom of "reviewing the old and learning the new" would be realized to a certain extent in modern planning and practice of water projects. The book comprises a lead article that the presenter authored and five Parts representing China, Japan, Korea, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively, followed by an invited one from Uzbekistan. Throughout the book, it is found that historically the Asian monsoon, affecting the Indian subcontinent and Southeast and East Asian regions, induced rice cultivation. It fundamentally needs proper irrigation systems, including reservoirs (dams) and canals, water wheels, and even rain gauges. Flood risks have been more common in Asia than Europe under this climate condition, as recognized in history. To utilize and sometimes overcome these climate conditions, people built and managed many historical and grandiose water projects and invented and used localized but sophisticated water-related technologies in the Asian region.

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Web-system development for the feasibility of national road

  • Park, T.;Shin, E.;Kang, T.;Park, W.;Lee, Y.
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.698-699
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    • 2015
  • For last three years, our research team have conducted the project named "Development of construction project management technology based on BIM/GIS platform. "We developed construction cost estimation system as well as 3D modeling engine at the first two year and established a web-system which could estimate the benefits of the project and further analyze the economic and financial feasibility of the project. This paper mainly focused on the functions and specifications of web-system. The system was composed of two modules: economic feasibility estimation module and financial feasibility estimation module. While the economic feasibility estimation module determines economic feasibility of the project based on traffic demand forecasting from the public's perspective, the financial feasibility estimation module determine financial viability of the project using toll fee of the road from private entity's perspective. Compared with traditional feasibility study, the proposed system provide users with better flexibility which can make users easily to validate the project upon the change of project environments. The system was also verified with an already accomplished project. The verification showed that proposed system could provide satisfactory accurate results with reduced time and resources.

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Aeroengine performance degradation prediction method considering operating conditions

  • Bangcheng Zhang;Shuo Gao;Zhong Zheng;Guanyu Hu
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제17권9호
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    • pp.2314-2333
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    • 2023
  • It is significant to predict the performance degradation of complex electromechanical systems. Among the existing performance degradation prediction models, belief rule base (BRB) is a model that deal with quantitative data and qualitative information with uncertainty. However, when analyzing dynamic systems where observable indicators change frequently over time and working conditions, the traditional belief rule base (BRB) can not adapt to frequent changes in working conditions, such as the prediction of aeroengine performance degradation considering working condition. For the sake of settling this problem, this paper puts forward a new hidden belief rule base (HBRB) prediction method, in which the performance of aeroengines is regarded as hidden behavior, and operating conditions are used as observable indicators of the HBRB model to describe the hidden behavior to solve the problem of performance degradation prediction under different times and operating conditions. The performance degradation prediction case study of turbofan aeroengine simulation experiments proves the advantages of HBRB model, and the results testify the effectiveness and practicability of this method. Furthermore, it is compared with other advanced forecasting methods. The results testify this model can generate better predictions in aspects of accuracy and interpretability.

밴드구조 VHAR 모형 (Banded vector heterogeneous autoregression models)

  • 김상태;백창룡
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제36권6호
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    • pp.529-545
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    • 2023
  • 본 논문에서는 장기 기억성을 가지는 고차원 시계열 데이터 분석에 유용한, 밴드 구조의 계수행렬들을 가지는 밴드구조 VHAR (Banded-VHAR) 모형을 제안한다. 밴드구조 VHAR 모형은 인접한 차원의 시계열에서만 상관구조를 가지는 성근 고차원 시계열 모형으로 밴드구조에 영향을 주는 요인으로는 대표적으로 지리적 특성이 있다. 밴드구조 VHAR 모형의 빠른 추정을 위해 본 논문은 행별추정방법을 사용하고 또 밴드의 크기를 추정하기 위해 BIC와 잔차제곱합의 비율을 이용한 추정 방법을 소개하였다. 더불어 모의 실험을 통해서 제안한 추정 방법의 점근적 일치성을 확인하였다. 실증자료 분석으로 지역별 초미세먼지 및 아파트 거래량 자료를 활용하여 모형을 적용한 결과 밴드구조 VHAR 모형이 표본외예측 능력의 우수하고, 지리적정보에 기반하여 모형의 해석이 용이하다는 큰 장점이 있음을 살펴보았다.

신경망을 이용한 기상예측시스템에서 망구조 최적화를 위한 Pruning 알고리즘 (A Pruning Algorithm for Network Structure Optimization in the Forecasting Climate System Using Neural Network)

  • 이기준;강명아;정채영
    • 한국정보처리학회논문지
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.385-391
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    • 2000
  • 최근, 기존의 통계적 분석방법과는 달리 시계열 데이터를 이용하여 미래의 연속적인 지배의 법칙을 예측하기 위한 신경회로망 연구가 진행되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 빠르고 정확한 기상예측을 위하여 초기 임의 설계된 신경회로망의 은닉층중과(過)설계된 은닉노드를 제거하는 Pruning 알고리즘을 제안하며, 이 제안한 알고리즘의 효율성을 증명하기 위하여 1987년부터 1996년까지의 수집된 기상 데이터 22080건을 이용하여 기상예측 실험을 실행하였다. 실험을 통하여 초기 임의 구성된 $26{\times}50{\times}1$의 신경망은 제안된 pruning 알고리즘을 통하여 $26{\times}2{\times}1$ 구조로 최적화 되었고, 최적화된 신경망($26{\times}2{\times}1$)의 경우 오차온도 ${\pm}0.5^{\circ}C$의 경우 평균 33.55%, ${\pm}1^{\circ}C$의 경우 61.57%로 임의 설계된 구조 ($26{\times}50{\times}1$)dml 29.31%, 54.47%에 비하여 우수하게 나타났고, 또한 계산 횟수에서도 임의 구성 신경망에 비하여 최고 25배이상 계산횟수를 줄일 수 있었다.

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기계학습 알고리즘을 이용한 스마트 온실 내부온도 예측 모델 개발 및 검증 (Development and Verification of Smart Greenhouse Internal Temperature Prediction Model Using Machine Learning Algorithm)

  • 오광철;김석준;박선용;이충건;조라훈;전영광;김대현
    • 생물환경조절학회지
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    • 제31권3호
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    • pp.152-162
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구는 데이터를 기반으로 한 인공지능 기계학습 기법을 활용하여 온실 내부온도 예측 시뮬레이션 모델을 개발을 수행하였다. 온실 시스템의 내부온도 예측을 위해서 다양한 방법이 연구됐지만, 가외 변인으로 인하여 기존 시뮬레이션 분석방법은 낮은 정밀도의 문제점을 지니고 있다. 이러한 한계점을 극복하기 위하여 최근 개발되고 있는 데이터 기반의 기계학습을 활용하여 온실 내부온도 예측 모델 개발을 수행하였다. 기계학습모델은 데이터 수집, 특성 분석, 학습을 통하여 개발되며 매개변수와 학습방법에 따라 모델의 정확도가 크게 변화된다. 따라서 데이터 특성에 따른 최적의 모델 도출방법이 필요하다. 모델 개발 결과 숨은층 증가에 따라 모델 정확도가 상승하였으며 최종적으로 GRU 알고리즘과 숨은층6에서 r2 0.9848과 RMSE 0.5857℃로 최적 모델이 도출되었다. 본 연구를 통하여 온실 외부 데이터를 활용하여 온실 내부온도 예측 모델 개발이 가능함을 검증하였으며, 추후 다양한 온실데이터에 적용 및 비교분석이 수행되어야 한다. 이후 한 단계 더 나아가 기계학습모델 예측(predicted) 결과를 예보(forecasting)단계로 개선하기 위해서 데이터 시간 길이(sequence length)에 따른 특성 분석 및 계절별 기후변화와 작물에 따른 사례별로 개발 모델을 관리하는 등의 다양한 추가 연구가 수행되어야 한다.