• Title/Summary/Keyword: Trading Strategy

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Performance of Investment Strategy using Investor-specific Transaction Information and Machine Learning (투자자별 거래정보와 머신러닝을 활용한 투자전략의 성과)

  • Kim, Kyung Mock;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2021
  • Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.

Research on effect that market directivity gets in real estate transaction result (시장지향성이 부동산거래 성과에 미치는 영향 : 부동산 중개업소 중심으로)

  • Lee, Sang-Gyu;Kim, Seok-Gon;Hwang, Hwa-Cheol
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2010
  • In this study, market orientation affects the real estate transaction and about the various parameters examined, the real estate transactions, market orientation and intensity of competition in the market upheaval and the impact was seen on the results can be summarized as follows. First, market orientation and about the relationship between real estate transactions were examined. Each variable of customer satisfaction information generation, information dissemination, information was used for the reaction. Among them, the dissemination of information, information about the reaction produces a lot better the customer satisfaction was the result. In other words, the dissemination of information and availability of information to real estate transactions, the more you can improve customer satisfaction. While the information does not appear to be generated as a result of the impact of market orientation when the first phase of the creation of market information and the customer's needs and preferences of current and future information and external factors affecting them to gather information about It is difficult to assess realistically can be seen. This is both our customers and dealers in real estate purchase or trade items for the exact targets, but the general approach the start of trading because by necessity. Therefore, a clear standard for real estate deals in and nine minutes to all sellers of real estate purchases through a process of communication to enable effective approach should be. Second, market orientation and about the relationship between real estate transactions were examined. The information for each variable in re-creating transactions, information dissemination, information was used for the reaction. Variable affects all the information creation, dissemination of information, information about the reaction the better the deal re-done show that two can be frequent. In other words, information generation, information dissemination and utilization of information to real estate transactions, the more customers the added responsibilities of the re-trade can be seen. Third, the relationship between market orientation and in the real estate market upheaval of environmental factors on the relationship between gender were examined. Each variable of customer satisfaction information generation, information dissemination, information was used for the reaction. Among them, the dissemination of information, information about the reaction produces a lot better the customer satisfaction was the result. In other words, the dissemination of information, depending on the market upheaval and the availability of information to raise the real estate can increase customer satisfaction. Fourth, market orientation and environmental factors in the relationship between real estate transactions and about the relationship between competition intensity was investigated. The information for each variable in re-creating transactions, information dissemination, information was used for the reaction. Variable affects all the information creation, dissemination of information, information about the reaction the better the deal re-done show that two can be frequent. In other words, information generation, information dissemination and utilization of information and the higher intensity of competition or unyounghameusseo ttaemaewoo active real estate transactions to provide our customers the added responsibilities of the re-trade can be seen. If more comprehensive, market orientation, according to real estate transactions and environmental factors affecting the performance was also different. Abundance of information about the current real estate it is true that the accuracy and reliability, and real estate, and are unsure about the expected benefits. So you want to trade to provide accurate information to customers and markets change rapidly and competition is severe, with more information if you have reliable information to the customer must supply can increase trading performance. Guarantee of future customer transactions and can provide valuable information and research needs to be differentiated based on the provision of real estate information should be done to achieve profitability will be a cow brokerage.

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A Study on Effective Relations between China's Cancellation of the Export Rebate of VAT tax and Chinese Steel Export to Korea. (중국의 수출 증치세 환급 취소가 중국산 철강재의 대한국 수출에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Seoung Taek
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.83-105
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    • 2017
  • I tried to analyze export relation of influence in Chinese H beam(common steel), Hot Rolled Steel(common steel), Plate(common steel) which could be influenced immediately by China's cancellation of the export rebate of value added tax in 2010 through the statistic methods such as cointegration, Granger causality, impulse response and variance decomposition. In the first period they mutually influenced each other in export to Korea but in the second period, this relation of influence was lessoned. Due to production expansion of Hot Rolled Steel(common steel), Plate(common steel) in Korea, the change of import trend, the market change of steel users' industries and China's expedient export of boron steel to Korea, mutual influence among these products was greatly declined. Ever since Hyundai Steel's production expansion involving blast furnace facilities, there is need for the industry to concentrate on developing new markets for its facilities' output in Korea. Therefore, Korea's steel industry desperately needs strength of de-jure standards such as unique quality standards and related certifications, efficient distribution management, as well as export promotion strategy through its global trading network to effectively address its structural supply-demand imbalances.

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A Study on the Scope and Determinants of Electronic Collaboration based on IT in Interorganizational Relationships (기업간 거래에서 정보기술을 활용한 전자적 협력의 범위와 선행요인에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Su-Jeong
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.159-188
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    • 2008
  • This study suggests strategies which can enable to creation of new opportunities of competitive advantages while operating a long lasting and consistent business with major trading partners, based on interorganizational information systems (IOISs) specially established and installed for interorganizational transactions. Nowadays, IOISs based mechanism having been widely expanded as a conventional business infrastructure for the interorganizational transactions and/or exchanges, it is customary difficult to obtain any strongly sound advantage over the competitors who have adopted even the simplest deployment of the IOIS mechanisms. In this connection, this study intends to investigate the interorganizational collaborative activities conducted by under the auspicious of IOISs, focused on the prospect of the exploitation of IOISs rather than the implementation of the IOISs. In this study, we, firstly, suggest the concept of Electronic Collaboration which can be defined by the collaborative activities conducted by IOISs, compared to the ones conducted on off-line. In addition, we suggest the Electronic Collaboration as a multi-dimensional concept, constituted by three sub-constructs, the Electronic Information Sharing (EIS), the Electronic Joint Activity (EJA), and the construction of the Electronic Relational Knowledge Store (ERKS). Secondly, we empirically verify the effects of relational and environmental determinants on the Electronic Collaboration. In this study, the relational determinants relate to the variables created in interorganizational relationship like Trust, Influence, Relational Specific Asset-asset invested for the transaction-, and Continuity of the relationship. On the other hand, the environmental determinants relate to the variables surrounding the relationship which are difficult to control. We consider Product Complexity, Technological Uncertainty, and Market Variability as the domain of the environmental determinants. To test our hypotheses, we conducted both paper-based survey and online-based survey. After refining the data with missing responses, a total of 150 data was used for analysis. The results were as follows : Firstly, it is statistically significant that the Electronic Collaboration is composed of EIS, EJA, and ERKS. In particular, the results imply that the firms are able to accumulate relational knowledge base as well as to exchange information or knowledge, and to conduct joint activities through effort to further expand the Electronic Collaboration. Secondly, we have verified the individual effects of the relational and the environmental determinants on the Electronic Collaboration. Product Complexity has been revealed as the most influential variable affecting the Electronic Collaboration. Next, Interorganizational Trust and Technological Uncertainty, in that order, have been seen to have significant effects on the Electronic Collaboration. In other words, when products or services seem to be difficult to standardize, and the core technologies seem to rapidly change, the need for the Electronic Collaboration increase. In addition, the observation dictates that the interorganizational trust turns out to be a critical variable in building a relationship and in seeking further collaboration. The results, further, illustrate that the environmental determinants are relatively more effective than the relational determinants, which is not consistent with a few prior researches relational determinants emphasized. It is because this study doesn't consider the size of the firm. A few researchers have given an emphasis on the relational determinants like trust and influence, especially from the perspective of small firms in interorganizational relationship. However, in our study, where all the sizes of the firms are contained, electronic collaboration is considerably affected by the environmental determinants.

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A Case Study on Joint Overseas Expansion of Home Shopping Firm and Consumer Goods SMEs (홈쇼핑 기업과 소비재 중소기업의 해외 동반진출에 관한 사례연구)

  • Yang, Heesoon;Jeong, So Won;Chung, Jae-Eun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.153-165
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    • 2018
  • There must be a balanced development of both conglomerates and small and mid-sized companies in order to secure constant economic growth and competitive edge of South Korea. Accordingly, high expectations are being placed on win-win growth and joint overseas expansion of conglomerates and small and mid-sized companies. This study seeks efficient ways to promote joint overseas expansion of major retailers and small and mid-sized companies considering the distinctiveness of home shopping by conducting interviews about joint overseas expansion of home shopping companies and small and mid-sized consumer goods companies in South Korea. To do this, interviews were conducted with three home shopping companies and three consumer goods SMEs operating in overseas markets. The results are as follows. Home shopping companies contribute to opening up overseas markets for small and mid-sized consumer goods companies, and allows them to make use of business and marketing competencies that they lack. Home shopping companies also produce visual materials or provide language translations, and help draw up documents for customs clearance in trading. They also form market development teams and provide information about the overseas markets. However, since the actual benefits from joint overseas expansion are minor for home shopping companies, there is a need for a strategy for win-win growth of both parties in the long run. To this end, it is necessary to provide substantial benefits to encourage joint overseas expansion. Ultimately, balanced development between home shopping companies and small- and medium-sized consumer goods companies should be promoted.

Influential Factors of Foreign Market Entry of Korean Fashion Firms (한국 패션 기업의 해외 시장 진입에 영향을 주는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Yun-Jin;Lee, Yu-Ri
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.30 no.12 s.159
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    • pp.1768-1777
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    • 2006
  • As the fashion industry comes under the influence of globalization throughout all fields of industry, the globalization and the market entry strategies are required for Korean fashion firms. This study attempted to analyze the factors influencing foreign entry mode of Korean fashion business based on Eclectic Theory. Data collection has been carried out from November 25 until December 25, 2005. The questionnaires were sent through e-mail or fax to 622 trading companies. 67 questionnaires were returned for a response rate of 10.7%. Of these returns, 61 usable questionnaires were employed for data analyses. Descriptive analysis, factor analysis, discriminant analysis, and t-test were used for data analysis. First, the most important venture motivation was price competitiveness and many firms were engaged in both production and sales in their target countries, which were mainly in Southeast Asia. Second, the firm's ability and experience were found out as ownership advantage factor, investment stability and market potential as location advantage factor, and contract stability as internalization advantage factor. Third, the result of discriminant analysis showed that location advantage factor was a significant factor in predicting the entry of fashion firms into foreign countries.

A Study of Korean Agri-Food Brand Identities for Expanding Exports to China (중국 수출확대를 위한 한국 농식품 브랜드 아이덴티티 정립)

  • An, Wook-Hyun;Cho, Woo-Chul;Kim, Chang-Hwan
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to target Chinese consumers of Korean agri-food through the analysis of agri-food brand identity images to set future directions for proposed agri-food exports to China. Since negotiations began for a free trade agreement (FTA) between Korea and China, some Koreans have worried about the Korean agriculture sector. The world trading system has undergone many changes in recent years. Since the start of FTA negotiations on agriculture, China and Korea have faced a heightened sense of crisis. China is trying to export agricultural products so actively that its agricultural exports could increase by more than 7% annually. China exported about one-tenth of its agricultural products to Korea in the period 2002-2010. Recently, the importance of brand identity has tended to increase, as the world becomes one unified market. In this situation, we should try to promote agri-food exports to China. It is very important to understand consumers' recognition of Korean food and the image of the Korean agri-food industry, to establish an export strategy. Research design, data, and methodology - This study targeted 2,800 adult men and women aged 25-59 years living in four major cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Qingdao) with a household income within the top 10% level in the China, using the one-to-one interview survey method. In addition, four groups by region (eight people per group) for a total of 32 groups were surveyed by using the focus group interview (FGI) research method, and impressions of imported agri-food were surveyed using 17 questions about fresh agri-food and 22 questions on processed agri-food. Factor analysis, brand positioning, biplot analysis, and so on, were carried out based on the results of these surveys. This research presents the brand identity of Korean food; according to the analyses, the brand identity is based on trust, safety, and attractiveness. Result - Factor analysis results showed that Chinese consumers expect four major qualities in imported fresh agri-food: freshness/safety, attractive appearance, premium branding, and excellent taste/quality. In the case of processed agri-food, it turned out that Chinese consumers are focused on safety/hygiene/freshness, health, and taste. In addition, in the fresh agri-food analysis by country, American foods had the upper hand; the image of American foods was also recognized as the most positive for processed agri-food. Meanwhile, according to the biplot analysis, Korean agri-food is strongly preferred for its appearance, but no country is strongly preferred as regards the level of freshness/safety that is expected by Chinese consumers. Conclusions - In this study, we analyzed the image of imported agri-food expected by Chinese consumers by reconstructing agri-food characteristics from the brand perspective. The research result shows that a Korean brand identity must be the ultimate goal for activities undertaken to enhance the image of Korean agri-food in the future. Additional research is needed because brand image can be formed through various channels.

Real-time information effect of patent listing disclosure (특허권 취득 공시와 한국유가증권시장의 실시간 정보효율성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Wook;Kim, Jong-Yoon
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.195-212
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    • 2016
  • Utilizing intra-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) based on 1 minute return data of stocks traded on the Korean Stock Exchange, this paper examines and analyzes abnormal returns in reaction to patent listing disclosures as well as the cumulative abnormal returns, traded volumes, the interaction of VWAP spreads, the reaction of volumes, the reaction of VWAP spreads and the realized returns obtained from trading using an event driven arbitrage strategy. The results of the aforementioned research topics are follows. First, our analysis suggests that on average, 0.92% positive cumulative returns arise 1 minute after the patent listing disclosure announcement with high statistical significance, thereby reconfirming that the Korean stock market is a semi-strong form of the efficient market. Employing 3 separate panel tests differentiated by the size factor, we find that the abnormal returns of small sized stocks were less than the returns of medium sized stocks, which goes to support recent research findings suggesting that the size premium is no longer existent in the Korean stock market. Secondly, we show that among the event driven type strategies, the most outstanding realized returns are from the market making strategies. Furthermore, placing market order trades only at the bid or ask price resulted in negative returns. This implies that strategies utilizing a combination of market orders and limit orders, order cancelations ratios and order flows can enhance realized returns.

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Information in the Implied Volatility Curve of Option Prices and Implications for Financial Distribution Industry (옵션 내재 변동성곡선의 정보효과와 금융 유통산업에의 시사점)

  • Kim, Sang-Su;Liu, Won-Suk;Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the importance of the slope and curvature of the volatility curve implied in option prices in the KOSPI 200 options index. A number of studies examine the implied volatility curve, however, these usually focus on cross-sectional characteristics such as the volatility smile. Contrary to previous studies, we focus on time-series characteristics; we investigate correlation dynamics among slope, curvature, and level of the implied volatility curve to capture market information embodied therein. Our study may provide useful implications for investors to utilize current market expectations in managing portfolios dynamically and efficiently. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical purpose, we gathered daily KOSPI200 index option prices executed at 2:50 pm in the Korean Exchange distribution market during the period of January 2, 2004 and January 31, 2012. In order to measure slope and curvature of the volatility curve, we use approximated delta distance; the slope is defined as the difference of implied volatilities between 15 delta call options and 15 delta put options; the curvature is defined as the difference between out-of-the-money (OTM) options and at-the-money (ATM) options. We use generalized method of moments (GMM) and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method to verify correlations among level, slope, and curvature of the implied volatility curve with statistical support. Results - We find that slope as well as curvature is positively correlated with volatility level, implying that put option prices increase in a downward market. Further, we find that curvature and slope are positively correlated; however, the relation is weakened at deep moneyness. The results lead us to examine whether slope decreases monotonically as the delta increases, and it is verified with statistical significance that the deeper the moneyness, the lower the slope. It enables us to infer that when volatility surges above a certain level due to any tail risk, investors would rather take long positions in OTM call options, expecting market recovery in the near future. Conclusions - Our results are the evidence of the investor's increasing hedging demand for put options when downside market risks are expected. Adding to this, the slope and curvature of the volatility curve may provide important information regarding the timing of market recovery from a nosedive. For financial product distributors, using the dynamic relation among the three key indicators of the implied volatility curve might be helpful in enhancing profit and gaining trust and loyalty. However, it should be noted that our implications are limited since we do not provide rigorous evidence for the predictability power of volatility curves. Meaning, we need to verify whether the slope and curvature of the volatility curve have statistical significance in predicting the market trough. As one of the verifications, for instance, the performance of trading strategy based on information of slope and curvature could be tested. We reserve this for the future research.

A Study on a Direction of Modification of the Trade and International Business Curriculum for Global Trade Expert (글로벌무역인력 양성을 위한 합리적인 무역학 교과과정 개편방향에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Kwang-So;Yu, Kwang-Hyun
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.37
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    • pp.329-360
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    • 2008
  • In Korea, the major of international trade and business introduced in the 1960s to supply trade expert to trading companies, and the heyday of the trade major was in the 1980s. However the trade major fell into decay from the middle of 1990s. The purpose of trade education in university is to supply high qualified employees to societies and companies. The problem is that companies have difficuties for recruiting of trade expert, on the other hand university graduates have few job oppertunies. It has some discrepancies between education and field. The object of this paper is to propose a direction of modification of the trade and international business curriculum for global trade expert. We research international trade and business departments' curriculums of GTEP universities. GTEP stands for global trade expert incubating program started from 2006 which have charge of MOCIE and KITA. First, in the title of department, a lot of former researchers have taken up the position to return "Trade" or "International Trade". We think more important fact is not the title of department but the curriculum, so we insist on a harmony between the department title and curriculums. The focus of modification of curriculum is to educate global trade expert, so we need to know about global business environment and companies' needs also. Second, We propose the directions for modification of curriculum are "convergence" and "specialty". Trade major is a mixed study in nature and trade major try to treat lots of subjects such as trade, business adminstration, economics, international law, international commerce, logistics and marketing etc to catch up changing global business circumstanses and companies' needs. So convergence of adjacent field is very important in study and training. Specialty means selection and concentration strategy for global trade expert. It is difficult to learn every knowledge and skills for employer's needs in 4 years and 140 credits. A students who has studied basic subject in trade, management, economics can choose 1 or 2 specailty subject such as trade and e-commerce, global marketing, logistics and transportation, commerce and policy, servive trade, foreign language and cross culture etc. In concusion, the concept of convergence and specialty is not separation but harmony each other, so we propose to promote two concept together for modification of the trade and international business curriculum for training of global trade expert.

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