• Title/Summary/Keyword: Trade war

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A New Phase of China's Development Against the Background of "Trade War" with the US: View from Russia (Вступление Китая в новую фазу развития на фоне "торговой войны" с США: взгляд из России)

  • Lukonin, Sergey;Ignatev, Sergei
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.111-141
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    • 2018
  • By the middle of 2018 there are signs of China's entry into a new period of development, characterized by a change in the old model: "market reforms-inner-party democratization - moderate foreign policy" to another: "market reforms - Xi Jinping personality cult - offensive foreign policy." This model contains the risks of arising of the contradiction between economic freedom and political-ideological rigidity which can lead to destabilization of the political life. However, in the current positive economic dynamics, these risks may come out, rather, in the medium and long term. Today, the political situation in China remains stable - despite growing dissatisfaction in scientific expert and educational circles due to increased control over the intellectual sphere by the authorities. The need for a new redistribution of power between central and provincial authorities could potentially disrupt political stability in the medium term, but, at the moment, is not a critical negative factor. The economic situation is positive-stable. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in China's GDP in 2018 at 6.5%. At the same time, there are negative expectations in connection with the Sino-US and potentially Sino-European "trade war". In the Chinese foreign policy, as a response to Western pressure, China increasingly uses the Russian direction of its diplomacy in the expanded version of Russia + SCO. The nuance here is seen in China's adjusted approach to the SCO: first of all, not as a mechanism for cooperation with Russia, but as an organization that allows using Russia's potential for pressure on the US in the Sino-US strategic rivalry. In the second half of 2018, the Chinese economy will continue to develop steadily, albeit with unresolved traditional problems (debts of provinces and state-owned enterprises, ineffective state sector, risks on the financial and real estate market). In politics, discontent with the cult of Xi will accumulate, but without real threats to its power. Weakening in economic opposition between China and the United States is possible due to Beijing's search for compromises on tariffs, intellectual property, trade deficit. To find such trade-offs, Xi will use the so-called. "Personal diplomacy" of direct contacts with Trump.

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With Regard to Local Contents Rule (Non-tariff Barriers to Trade): After Announcing the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, is the Chinese Capital Market Suitable for Korean Investors?

  • Kim, Yoonmin;Jo, Gab-Je
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - As the U.S.-China trade war has become considerably worse, the Chinese government is considering applying non-tariff barriers to trade, especially local contents rule. The main purpose of this research is to check whether it is suitable for Korean investors to invest in the current Chinese capital market. Design/methodology - In order to check the stability of the recent Chinese capital market, we investigated the behavior of foreign equity investment (including Korean equity investment) in the Chinese capital market after China announced the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect (SH-HK Connect). In this paper, we researched whether international portfolio investment would or would not contribute to an increase the volatility of an emerging market's stock market (Chinese capital market) when foreign investors make investment decisions based on the objective of short-term gains by rushing into countries whose markets are booming and fleeing from countries whose markets are falling. Findings - The empirical results indicate that foreign investors show strong, negative feedback trading behavior with regard to the stock index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), and when the performance of foreign investors in the Chinese stock market was fairly good. Also, we found evidence that the behavior of foreign investors significantly decreased volatility in SSE stock returns. Consequently, the SH-HK Connect brought on a win-win effect for both the Chinese capital market and foreign investors. Originality/value - It appeared that the Chinese capital market was very suitable for Korean investors after the China's declaration of the SH-HK Connect. However, the win-win effect was brought on by the Chinese government's aggressive capital control but the capital controls could possibly cause financial turmoil in the Chinese capital market. Therefore, Chinese reform in industrial structure and the financial sector should keep pace with suitable capital control policies.

A Study on Supply Chain Analysis of Global Cod Industry - Focusing on COVID-19 pandemic and Intermediary Trade of South Korea - (세계 대구산업의 공급사슬 구조 분석 - 코로나19와 한국 중계무역을 중심으로 -)

  • Huang, Shan-Shan;Lee, Jung-Phil
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2022
  • The global cod market is supposed to have weak structure with a high dependence on the supply of Russia, the United States, Norway, and China. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted the cod supply chain for the worse. Fish processing facilities in China stopped their operation, and cod demand declined due to shrinking consumption in Europe. The position of South Korea as an intermediary trade country between Russia and China strengthened due to the U.S.-China trade war and the Atlantic cod decrease in 2019. However, this global cod supply chain collapse has caused South Korea to export accumulated cod to Indonesia and Vietnam at a bargain price, showing that South Korea was unable to cope with this supply chain crisis. The primary purpose of this study is to investigate changes in the global cod supply chain and their impacts on the intermediary trade of South Korea caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It also aims to provide implications by analyzing advanced cases in Denmark. As the cod supply chain crisis countermeasures, this study suggests that South Korea develop high value-added marine products, gain competitive advantages by solidifying the value chains of related countries, and activate export by discovering alternative markets in terms of the supply chain of the cod industry.

Containing China versus Choking the Asian Economy

  • Inkyo Cheong;Byeongho Lim;Yeri Ryu
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.137-152
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - Although many existing studies on the US-China hegemonic conflict and decoupling have been published, most of them are qualitative and use descriptive analysis methods. Papers that quantitatively analyzed decoupling mainly estimate the effect of a tariff increase. However, this paper quantitatively analyzed the ripple effect by focusing on decoupling technology spillover between the United States and China. And, for the first time, it was suggested that the blocking of technology spillover could give a fatal blow to the East Asian economy as well as China. Design/methodology - The United States is pursuing decoupling with China, primarily in goods trade and blocking technology transfer. This paper sets up various scenarios and uses three computational general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyze the overall ripple effects of decoupling. A paper using the three CGE models for decoupling ripple effect analysis has not yet been published. Findings - Decoupling will hit the economies of regions with close economic ties to China more than others. According to simulation results of this study, the Chinese economy may suffer severe damage that is difficult to recover from, and the economies of Asian countries are predicted to deteriorate to the point of being choked. Originality/value - Existing papers that assessed the effect of decoupling mostly focus on estimating the effect itself through tariff hikes. This paper is meaningful in that it comprehensively analyzed decoupling by adding the effect of technology spillover blockade. In addition, another meaning can be found in that it quantified for the first time that it will deal a huge blow to the extent of choking the East Asian economy as well as China.

A Study of Medical Record about Delegation Dispatched to Japan in Chosun Dynasty (조선통신사 사행원과 기록 연구 -18세기 사행록과 의학문답 기록을 중심으로-)

  • Ham, Jeong Sik;Cha, Wung Seok;Yoo, Won Joon;Kim, Nam Il
    • The Journal of Korean Medical History
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.41-61
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    • 2007
  • In 1607 a delegation was dispatched from Chosun to Japan (under the condition that prisoners of war were returned) to restore the destroyed relationship between the nations due to a war and to restore economic profits. This delegation later on became a delegation representing faith in each other. It contributed greatly to the Korea-Japan cultural exchanges in the 17th and 18th centuries. It was also a cornerstone for the exchange of Korea's distinguished studies as well as medical technology and Japan's results of international trade such as sweet potatoes, pepper, and tobacco. This thesis is one that discusses the study of documents produced during this process.

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An Effect on the Costumes in the Middle Ages of the Culture of Knight from the 11th Century to Middle of the 15th Century (11∼15세기 중반 기사문화가 중세복식에 미친영향)

  • 조현진;김영삼;정흥숙
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 2004
  • In this thesis, the connectivity between the military culture in the Middle Ages and costumes by researching the effect on the clothing in the Middle Ages of the culture of knight from the 11th century to middle of the 15th century was tried to be recognized. The culture of knight was widely divided into 4 articles - Chivalry, Tournamemt, The equipment of knight, Heraldry - and then researched. The conclusion after researching the influence of the culture of knight upon the clothing in the Middle Age in the above is as follows. Regarding the clothing, the military culture such as the crusader war, armor, and heraldry was popularized over the entire Middle Ages as the military-look style, and regarding the ornament the result of the crusader war caused the introduction of the Eastern civilization and development of the commerce and industry, and also trade, and consequently the ornament became luxurious. Regarding the footwear, when seeing the Gothic shoes, it can be found that it is similar with the knight's shoes made of the metal. As seen in the above, it can be recognized that the culture of knight caused the huge influence upon the whole politics, culture, and society in the Middle Ages as well as upon the costumes.

A Study on Chinese Characters Represented in Korean Films from under Japanese Colonial Period to the 2000s (한국 영화에 재현된 중국인 형상의 역사적 고찰)

  • Kim, Jongsoo
    • Cross-Cultural Studies
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    • v.27
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    • pp.105-122
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    • 2012
  • This article aims that Chinese characters represented in Korean films have been explored for historical consideration of Korean's viewpoint on Chinese from early modern to the present day. During Japanese colonial period, Chinese had been hateful and feared by most of Korean because Korean had been acted high-handedly by chinese in early modern time and had covertly regarded chinese as threatening competitors in economical part of the colony, refered to the chinese characters represented in the films, For the Lover(1928) and Secret of Chinese Street(1928). Chinese had been called as enemy forces in Korean movies, such as Marines are Gone(1963), Dragon competed with tiger(1974) made with Korean battle field setting and Manchuria setting developed a Korean independence movement, after Korean War in the 1960-70s maintained the cold war system in the World. According to analyzing chinese characters depicted in Failan(2001), A Good Rain Knows(2010), Korean public have a friendly attitude with contemporary Chinese as China has been the great trade partner of Korea with interdependent relationship after 1992, the year of Korea have established diplomatic ties with China.

The Impacts on SLOC Security to Korea's National Economy (해양교통로의 안전 확보가 국가경제 발전에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Choon-Kun
    • Strategy21
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    • s.30
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    • pp.31-62
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    • 2012
  • It is a commons sense that the Republic of Korea is a maritime state that depends its survival on International Trade and International Economy. Korea was a peninsula and do it can be both maritime and continental state by its choice. However, after the national division in 1945, South Korea had became a virtual island and pursue a maritime way for national development in the past 60 plus years. Now, South Korea is becoming a world's 12 th largest major trading and maritime state. South Korea has far more ships per capita than any other nations in the world and its economy is heavily depend upon the imports and exports with other nations in the world that pass through the oceans. Therefore, the Koreans regard the security of the sea lanes of communication as vital to the survival of the nation. The SLOC is the life line for Republic of Korea. Since the early 1990s, immediately after the Cold War was over, South Koreans began to recognize the importance of Sea Routes and thus began to build a navy that can handle with the new problems of the post Cold War era. However, the maritime security environments of the Republic of Korea today is shaky and dangerous. Almost every water near the Korean peninsula, some kind of international confrontations are going on. Territorial disputes on Dok do, Senkaku, Scarbrough, Shisha, Nansha and Eodo between and among Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, Phillipines, Indonesia and Vietnam are the examples. In this essay, the author argues that the S. Korean efforts and capabilities to deal with these challenges are not enough and exhorts more efforts and more powerful navy for the Korean people.

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Trust, Long-term Orientation, and Relationship Performance: A Perspective of Distribution Management on Supply Chain

  • Changjoon LEE;Soohyo KIM
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study sheds light on the need for trust in buyer-seller relationships in supply chains and explores why long-term orientation is important. It also investigates the effect on relationship performance. This study provides implication on how to build robust supply chains. Methodology: A survey was conducted with firms with supply chains in South Korea. A total of 350 valid questionnaires were analyzed through Entrust Survey-a sampling company. Structural equation modeling (SPSS 18.0 and AMOS) was employed to test the hypotheses. Results: Cognitive trust had a positive effect on emotional trust. Emotional trust had a positive effect on long-term orientation but did not have a significant effect on relationship performance. Long-term orientation was proportionate to relationship performance. Conclusions: Trust is a critical factor in supply chains. As business environments are rapidly changing, the uncertainties are also meaningful. Supply chains have collapsed owing to COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the U.S.-China trade war, and they are only just recently being rebuilt. Maintaining relationships with supply-chain partners is vital, and promoting cognitive and emotional trust is necessary.

Analysis of connectedness Between Energy Price, Tanker Freight Index, and Uncertainty (에너지 가격, 탱커운임지수, 불확실성 사이의 연계성 분석)

  • Kim, BuKwon;Yoon, Seong-Min
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.87-106
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    • 2022
  • Uncertainties in the energy market are increasing due to technology developments (shale revolution), trade wars, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Especially, since 2020, the risk of international trade in the energy market has increased significantly due to changes in the supply chain of transportation and due to prolonged demand reduction because of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war. Considering these points, this study analyzed connectedness between energy price, tanker index, and uncertainty to understand the connectedness between international trade in the energy market. Main results are summarized as follows. First, as a result of analyzing stable period and unstable period of the energy price model using the MS-VAR model, it was confirmed that both the crude oil market model and the natural gas market model had a higher probability of maintaining stable period than unstable period, increasing volatility by specific events. Second, looking at the results of the analysis of the connectedness between stable period and unstable period of the energy market, it was confirmed that in the case of total connectedness, connectedness between variables was increased in the unstable period compared to the stable period. In the case of the energy market stable period, considering the degree of connectedness, it was confirmed that the effect of the tanker freight index, which represents the demand-side factor, was significant. Third, unstable period of the natural gas market model increases rapidly compared to the crude oil market model, indicating that the volatility spillover effect of the natural gas market is greater when uncertainties affecting energy prices increase compared to the crude oil market.