• Title/Summary/Keyword: Timing Decision

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A methodology for Predicting Equity Input Timing/Amount for Decision Making of Financing Apartment Housing Projects - From the Perspective of Mid-sized Construction Companies - (공동주택 PF사업 참여 의사결정을 위한 자기자본 투입 시점/규모 예측방법론 - 중견 건설사의 관점에서-)

  • Yoo, Jinhyuk;Cha, Heesung;Shin, Dongwoo;Kim, Kyungrai
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2016
  • The current PF project is entirely relying on construction company's credibility. As such, it has increased a negative and bad recognition in domestic real estate economy. In addition, PF experts has a perception that a project's safety of future cash flow profitability is more important than the construction company's credibility. So many PF experts make an effort in order to set aside safe project structure of PF and analyse systematically the risks of the project. In common feasibility study of the PF Project, financial specialists and real estate specialists are forecasting and evaluating the suitability of the project through reviewing the development profit from the project of sales. However, cash flow analysis and evaluation from the perspective of mid-sized construction companies are still in the primary level. Therefore, this study has analysed the current feasibility study and go/no go decision making procedures. Then the authors have a new cash flow analysis method from the perspective of mid-sized construction companies, by improving the feasibility study and go/no go decision making procedures.

Asset Evaluation Method for Road Pavement Considering Life Cycle Cost (생애주기비용을 고려한 도로포장의 자산가치 평가에 대한 연구)

  • Do, Myungsik;Kim, Jeunghwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.1D
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2009
  • This study aims at establishing the decision-making support system for the highway assets, long-term performance presumption and evaluation of asset value, which are appropriate for Korea, and proposing the methods of the optimal engineering method and the timing decision for the preventive maintenance through the project evaluation, the optimization method and life-cycle analysis related to the highways. In order to supplement the current problem of the near-sighted budget management system, which chooses the maintenance place of the highway, depending on the level of the budget with fixed amount, the long-term required budget prediction system and the economy principle were introduced, so that the pavement agency can predict the level of the required budget, and it was aimed to develop the pavement asset evaluation system to maintain the performance of the highway with the minimum of the cost. In the use of the highway pavement asset evaluation system, to maintain the appropriate level of the pavement evaluation index, when the budget was efficiently established in the reference of the required maintenance budget for the chosen section of the highway in the year concerned, it was possible to analyze the most rational pavement maintenance budget. With this result, it is estimated to prevent the unnecessary waste of budget in advance, and through the development of the decision-making system for the long-term performance presumption and the asset value estimation of the pavement, it is expected to able to analyze the previous evaluation of the project related to the highway and the feasibility of introduction.

EVALUATION ON THE DECISION AND TIMING OF CYST ENUCLEATION AFTER MARSUPIALIZATION OF LARGE SIZED CYSTIC LESION ON THE JAWS (악골내 거대 낭종 병소의 조대술 후 적출술의 시행 여부 및 적출 시기의 평가)

  • Jo, Ji-Bong;Lee, Kwang-Ho;Lee, Shi-Hyun;Kim, Bok-Ju;Kim, Chul-Hoon;Hwang, Dae-Suk;Shin, Sang-Hun;Kim, Uk-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.411-419
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    • 2009
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether cyst enucleation would be done after marsupialization of large cystic lesion on the jaws or not, and if so, when it should be done. Patients & Methods: 12 patients with cystic lesion treated by marsupialization only and 10 patients with cystic lesion treated by marsupialization followed by enucleation were examined in this study. Postoperative clinical and radiographic examinations were performed at 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19 months on 22 patients. Bone regeneration and reduction rate of the residual cystic cavities and bone density were evaluated with a analysis of digital panoramic radiographs. Also histological evaluation of the healing process was performed on 1 patient. Results: Uneventful healing and spontaneous bony filling of the residual cavities were observed in all cases. Postoperative radiographs showed that the size of the lesions was reduced for a few months, but the reduction rate of the residual cavity was minimized for 13~16 months after marsupialization. The bone density was increased 22.5 % after 19 months. Conclusion: This results suggest that the appropriate timing to perform enucleation would be 13~16 months after marsupialization. The state of healing process could be confirmed by histological examination and radiographic evaluation of bone density. Enucleation after marsupialization could be applied appropriately to reduce the periods of bone healing in large cystic lesion on the jaws.

Ethical Attitudes according to Education and Clinical Experience of Do-Not-Resuscitate (DNR) (심폐소생술금지 교육 및 임상 경험에 따른 윤리적 태도)

  • Kae, Young Ae;Lee, Mi Yeon;Park, Jin Sook;Kim, Hyo Joo;Jung, Tae Youn;Jang, Bo Young;Kim, Yoon Jeong;Koo, Dong-Hoe
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.208-218
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: Although a Do-Not-Resuscitate (DNR) order is widely in use, it is one of the challenging issues in end-of-life care. This study was conducted to investigate attitudes toward DNR according to education and clinical experience. Methods: Data were collected using a structured questionnaire comprising 30 items in a tertiary hospital in Seoul, Korea. Results: Participants were 238 nurses and 72 physicians. Most participants (99%) agreed to the necessity of DNR for reasons such as dignified death (52%), irreversible medical condition (23%) and patients' autonomy in decision making (19%). Among all, 33% participants had received education about DNR and 87% had DNR experience. According to participants' clinical DNR experience, their attitudes toward DNR significantly differed in terms of the necessity of DNR, timing of the DNR consent and post-DNR treatments including antibiotics. However, when participants were grouped by the level of DNR education, no significant difference was observed except in the timing of the DNR consent. Conclusion: This study suggests that the attitudes toward DNR were more affected by clinical experience of DNR rather than education. Therefore, DNR education programs should involve clinical settings.

A Study on the Fiscal Efficiency of the Early Scrappage Support System for Aged Diesel Vehicles (노후 경유차 조기폐차 지원제도의 재정 효율성에 관한 연구)

  • Sung Hoon Kang
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.107-126
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the financial efficiency of the early scappage support system using the benefit and cost analysis. To do so, we use comprehensive administrative data on the early scrappage of old diesel vehicles. The result shows that the benefit-cost ratio was greater than 1 before 2020, but it appeared to be less than 1 after 2020. This indicates that despite recent reforms to increase the subsidy of early scrappage of old diesel vehicles, the rate of the benefit of air quality improvement is not as fast as the increase in system operation cost of this system. The benefit of air quality improvement depends on how much the operating period is shortened due to early scrappage support system. The earlier this period is brought forward, the more likely it is that the benefits of early scrappage will exceed the costs. Upon examining the results of this study, it was found that when the scrappage timing is brought forward by 5 years, the B/C for 98% of the samples becomes 1, greatly securing financial efficiency. Therefore, it is important for the government to reform the system so that it can influence the decision of old diesel vehicle owners on the timing of scrappage.

Decision Making on the Non surgical, Surgical Treatment on Chronic Adult Periodontitis (만성 성인성 치주염 치료시 비외과적, 외과적 방법에 대한 의사결정)

  • Song, Si-Eun;Li, Seung-Won;Cho, Kyoo-Sung;Chai, Jung-Kiu;Kim, Chong-Kwan
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.645-660
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    • 1998
  • The purpose of this study was to make and ascertain a decision making process on the base of patient-oriented utilitarianism in the treatment of patients of chronic adult periodontitis. Fifty subjects were chosen in Yonsei Dental hospital and the other fifty were chosen in Severance dental hospital according to the selection criteria. Fifty four patients agreed in this study. NS group(N=32) was treated with scaling and root planing without any surgical intervention, the other S group(N=22) done with flap operation. During the active treatment and healing time, all patients of both groups were educated about the importance of oral hygiene and controlled every visit to the hospital. When periodontal treatment needed according to the diagnostic results, some patients were subjected to professional tooth cleaning and scaling once every 3 months according to an individually designed oral hygienic protocol. Probing depth was recorded on baseline and 18 months after treatments. A questionnaire composed of 6 kinds(hygienic easiness, hypersensitivity, post treatment comfort, complication, functional comfort, compliance) of questions was delivered to each patient to obtain the subjective evaluation regarding the results of therapy. The decision tree for the treatment of adult periodontal disease was made on the result of 2 kinds of periodontal treatment and patient's ubjective evaluation. The optimal path was calculated by using the success rate of the results as the probability and utility according to relative value and the economic value in the insurance system. The success rate to achieve the diagnostic goal of periodontal treatment as the remaining pocket depth less than 3mm and without BOP was $0.83{\pm}0.12$ by non surgical treatment and $0.82{\pm}0.14$ by surgical treatment without any statistically significant difference. The moderate success rate of more than 4mm probing pocket depth were 0.17 together. The utilities of non-surgical treatment results were 100 for a result with less than 3mm probing pocket depth, 80 for the other results with more than 4mm probing pocket depth, 0 for the extraction. Those of surgical treatment results were the same except 75 for the results with more than 4mm. The pooling results of subjective evaluation by using a questionnaire were 60% for satisfaction level and 40% for no satisfaction level in the patient group receiving nonsurgical treatment and 33% and 67% in the other group receiving surgical treatment. The utilities for 4 satisfaction levels were 100, 75, 60, 50 on the base of that the patient would express the satisfaction level with normal distribution. The optimal path of periodontal treatment was rolled back by timing the utility on terminal node and the success rate, the distributed ratio of patient's satisfaction level. Both results of the calculation was non surgical treatment. Therefore, it can be said that non-surgical treatment may be the optimal path for this decision tree of treatment protocol if the goal of the periodontal treatment is to achieve the remaining probing pocket depth of less than 3mm for adult chronic periodontitis and if the utilitarian philosophy to maximise the expected utility for the patients is advocated.

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Estimation of Life Expectancy and Budget Demands based on Maintenance Strategy (도로포장 유지보수 전략에 따른 기대수명과 보수비용산정)

  • Han, Dae-Seok;Do, Myung-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.4D
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    • pp.345-356
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    • 2012
  • Road pavement requires repetitive maintenance works to maintain satisfactory service level to the public. However, the repetitive maintenance works upon deteriorated pavement structure make negative effects to deterioration speed. It often leads to inefficient use of limited budget. For that reason, the pavements require reconstruction work to recover their original performance. Recently, construction demands in the Korean national highway have already been reached to maximum level, and the aged pavements start to demand much more reconstruction works. However, in the real world, road agencies have often been confused when they determine maintenance design for such aged road sections due to budget constraint. It is because there is no reliable long-term maintenance strategy that supports their decision making. To support their decision making, this paper aimed to suggest the best maintenance strategy considering changing process of pavement performance by repetitive maintenance works. As an analysis method, probability distribution and hazard function to estimate the life expectancy were adopted, and then the results were used for long-term life cycle cost analysis with deterministic or Monte-Carlo method under various scenarios. As an empirical study, the Korean national highway data that has long-maintenance history data since 1986 has been applied. Last, this paper considered quality assurance of maintenance work to improve maintenance quality. These could be important information as a part of long-term maintenance strategy of pavement.

Relationships Between Using Rate of Information Media on Diversion by Traffic Condition (소통상황에 따른 정보매체별 우회이용률 분석)

  • Choe, Yun-Hyeok;Choe, Gi-Ju;Go, Han-Geom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2010
  • Although many studies have been carried out on the pattern of behavior of drivers which result from the provision of traffic information, there have been few detailed studies on the composition of message, method for message expression, timing of provision, point of provision, media for provision, changes by traffic condition, etc. This study was intended to provide an insight into the changes in the characteristics related to the provision of information by analyzing how the patterns of information utilization change depending on the traffic condition and reclassifying such patterns according to the characteristics of media. Unlike the existing studies, this study adopted the traffic condition, using rate of information media, and the correlation coefficient label as the basis for information media classification, and categorized them into passive utilization media, active utilization media, and past experience in order to ensure the statistical reasonability. The categorized using rate of information media and traffic condition was found to have a positive(+) correlation with the travel speed in the case of passive utilization media during both consecutive holidays(Korea's traditional Thanksgiving day) and weekends, but had a negative(-) correlation with the positive utilization media and past experience. The rate of decision to take a detour based on the past experience was high at the condition of congestion or slow during both consecutive holidays and weekends, but the rate of decision to take a detour through passive utilization media was high in a smooth traffic. In other words, if the traffic condition worsens, using rate of passive utilization media would be low while the diversion rate would be high which uses the active utilization media and past experience. Therefore, it should be established to suit the traffic condition and media characteristics for strategies of traffic distribution through drivers' diversion behavior on weekends and consecutive holidays.

Water Balance Analysis of Pumped-Storage Reservoir during Non-Irrigation Period for Recurrent Irrigation Water Management (순환형 농업용수관리를 위한 농업용 저수지의 비관개기 양수저류 추정)

  • Bang, Na-Kyoung;Nam, Won-Ho;Shin, Ji-Hyeon;Kim, Han-Joong;Kang, Ku;Baek, Seung-Chool;Lee, Kwang-Ya
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2020
  • The extreme 2017 spring drought affected a large portion of South Korea in the Southern Gyeonggi-do and Chungcheongnam-do districts. This drought event was one of the climatologically driest spring seasons over the 1961-2016 period of record. It was characterized by exceptionally low reservoir water levels, with the average water level being 36% lower over most of western South Korea. In this study, we consider drought response methods to alleviate the shortage of agricultural water in times of drought. It could be to store water from a stream into a reservoir. There is a cyclical method for reusing water supplied from a reservoir into streams through drainage. We intended to present a decision-making plan for water supply based on the calculation of the quantity of water supply and leakage. We compared the rainfall-runoff equation with the TANK model, which is a long-term run-off model. Estimations of reservoir inflow during non-irrigation seasons applied to the Madun, Daesa, and Pungjeon reservoirs. We applied the run-off flow to the last 30 years of rainfall data to estimate reservoir storage. We calculated the available water in the river during the non-irrigation season. The daily average inflow from 2003 to 2018 was calculated from October to April. Simulation results show that an average of 67,000 tons of water is obtained during the non-irrigation season. The report shows that about 53,000 tons of water are available except during the winter season from December to February. The Madun Reservoir began in early October with a 10 percent storage rate. In the starting ratio, a simulated rate of 4 K, 6 K, and 8 K tons is predicted to be 44%, 50%, and 60%. We can estimate the amount of water needed and the timing of water pump operations during the non-irrigation season that focuses on fresh water reservoirs and improve decision making for efficient water supplies.

Forecasting Next Generation Technology Using Lotka-Volterra Competition Model and Factors for Technology Substitution (기술대체 영향요인과 Lotka-Volterra 경쟁 모형을 이용한 차세대 기술 예측)

  • Kim, Hyein;Jeong, Yujin;Yoon, Byungun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.1262-1287
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    • 2017
  • Recently, forecasting for next-generation technologies have influenced the competitiveness of companies. However, in previous studies, only extract factors influencing the adoption of technology have been investigated. Also, there are few researches on the importance of each decision factors or the competition between technologies. In this research, Lotka-Volterra model is used to confirm the technological competition in the new technology choice timing when the competition is intensified due to the emergence of new technologies. For purpose of this study, estimate the LVC model based on the data of the past competition and then derived the factors affecting the technology of competition and substitution from the literature survey. After that, we confirmed the factor value between the past and the present technology competition. The difference between the factor values derived from the previous step is used to revise the model estimated from the past data base. At this stage, regression analysis is used to derive the importance of each factor and use it as the weight. Through the correction model, the competitiveness is identified through 1:1 comparison with competition candidate technology and existing dominant design technology. In this research, we quantitatively propose the possibility that a specific technology can become a dominant design in the next generation, based on the difference in factor values and importance. This results will help the company's R&D strategy and decision making.