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Forecasting Next Generation Technology Using Lotka-Volterra Competition Model and Factors for Technology Substitution  

Kim, Hyein (동국대학교 산업시스템공학과)
Jeong, Yujin (동국대학교 산업시스템공학과)
Yoon, Byungun (동국대학교 산업시스템공학과)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society / v.20, no.4, 2017 , pp. 1262-1287 More about this Journal
Abstract
Recently, forecasting for next-generation technologies have influenced the competitiveness of companies. However, in previous studies, only extract factors influencing the adoption of technology have been investigated. Also, there are few researches on the importance of each decision factors or the competition between technologies. In this research, Lotka-Volterra model is used to confirm the technological competition in the new technology choice timing when the competition is intensified due to the emergence of new technologies. For purpose of this study, estimate the LVC model based on the data of the past competition and then derived the factors affecting the technology of competition and substitution from the literature survey. After that, we confirmed the factor value between the past and the present technology competition. The difference between the factor values derived from the previous step is used to revise the model estimated from the past data base. At this stage, regression analysis is used to derive the importance of each factor and use it as the weight. Through the correction model, the competitiveness is identified through 1:1 comparison with competition candidate technology and existing dominant design technology. In this research, we quantitatively propose the possibility that a specific technology can become a dominant design in the next generation, based on the difference in factor values and importance. This results will help the company's R&D strategy and decision making.
Keywords
Technology Substitution; Techonology Competition; LVC Model (Lotka Volterra Competition Model);
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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