• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.139-148
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• 2012

The short-term variation of salinity and temperature in a dyked estuarine environment is mainly controlled by the freshwater discharge from the dyke. We examined the distribution of salinity and temperature by the freshwater discharge in the Yeongsan River estuary using the CTD data obtained from 8 stations through three surveys in June (weak discharge) and August (intensive discharge), 2010. During the weak discharge in June, the surface salinity showed 30-32.5 psu and its horizontal gradient was relatively high around Goha-do (0.25~0.32 psu/km). On the other hand, the salinity of the bottom layer was almost constant in the range of 33 psu. Water temperature ranged $19{\sim}21^{\circ}C$ and displayed higher gradient in north-south direction than the gradient of east-west direction. During the intensive freshwater discharge on August 12, the salinity dropped to 9~26 psu. The maximum horizontal gradient of surface salinity reached 3.8 psu/km in the north of Goha-do where the strong salinity front was formed, and the horizontal salinity gradient of bottom layer was 0.28 psu/km. The horizontal gradient of water temperature was $-0.45^{\circ}C/km$ in the surface and $-0.12^{\circ}C/km$ in the bottom with high surface temperature near the dyke and decreasing gradually to the river mouth. After 3 days of the intensive discharge ($3^{rd}$ survey), the surface salinity increased to 22~26 psu. However, there still existed relatively high horizontal gradient around Goha-do. In the mean time, the bottom salinity decreased to 26.5~27.5 psu, but its gradient was not big as much as the surface gradient. According to time series of CTD profile near the dyke, the discharged fresh water jetted down temporarily and then recovered gradually with the recovering speed of 0.4 m/hour for the discharge case of $13{\times}10^6$ ton. Due to the combined effects of freshwater discharge and surface heating during the summer of 2010, the Yeongsan estuary, in general, underwent intensified vertical stratification, which in turn caused the inhibition of vertical mixing, especially inside area of estuary. Based on the spatial distribution of salinity and temperature, the Yeongsan estuary can be divided into three regions: the Goha-do area with strong horizontal gradient of salinity and temperature, inner estuary from Goha-do to the dyke with low salinity, and outer estuary from Goha-do to the coasts with relatively high salinity.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.423-433
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• 2019

In order to predict the seabed topography change due to the construction of offshore wind power structures in the west-southern sea of Korea, field observations for tides, tidal currents, suspended sediment concentrations and seabed sediments were carried out at the same time. These data could be used for numerical simulation. In numerical experiments, the empirical constants for the suspended sediment flux were determined by the trial and error method. When a concentration distribution factor was 0.1 and a proportional constant was 0.05 in the suspended sediment equilibrium concentration formulae, the calculated suspended sediment concentrations were reasonably similar with the observed ones. Also, it was appropriate for the open boundary conditions of the suspended sediment when the south-east boundary corner was 11.0 times, the south-west was 0.5 times, the westnorth 1.0 times, the north-west was 1.0 times and the north-east was 1.0 times, respectively, using the time series of the observed suspended sediment concentrations. In this case, the depth change was smooth and not intermittent around the open boundaries. From these calibrations, the annual water depth change before and after construction of the offshore wind power structures was shown under 1 cm. The reason was that the used numerical model for the large scale grid could not reproduce a local scour phenomenon and they showed almost no significant velocity change over ± 2 cm/s because the jacket structures with small size diameter, about 1 m, were a water-permeable. Therefore, it was natural that there was a slight change on seabed topography in the study area.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.65-92
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• 1985

A total of 12 mineral commodities significant in domestic output, economy and/or strategy of the Republic of Korea are chosen to examine the structural changes in production and demand-supply of these minerals during the last two decades of her industrialization. These include iron and manganese ores as the raw materials for iron and steel making, copper, zinc and tungsten ores among other non-ferrous metallic minerals, limestone (cement), kaolin, talc, pyrophyllite and graphite among other non-metallic minerals, and anthracite coal as the only domestic source of fossil energy. These are reviewed historically in time-series based on the statistical data which are tabulated and graphed in terms of domestic output, export, import, apparent demand-supply, its increasing rate, and self-sufficiency rate of each commodity. The increasing rates of demand-supply (IRDS) of some more important commodities are compared with those of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and Economic Growth Rate (EGR) to evaluate how the IRDS contributed to the GDP and EGR. The major results revealed are as follows: Among the 12 commodities, the domestic output of 8 commodities appeared to have grown with steady upward trends: they are ores of lead, zinc and tungsten, limestone (cement), kaolin, talc, pyrophyllite and anthracite coal. Two commodities, ores of iron and copper, continued with unchanging or slightly declining trends and varied fluctuations, in spite of their cardinal importance to the heavy industry and strategy of Korea. The remaining two, graphite and manganese ore, have gradualy declined in domestic output in which the former has still enough resource potential but the latter has not and virtually ceased its domestic output. Trade patterns for mineral commodities in the Republic of Korea during the last two decades have changed greatly, being marked by a shift from mineral-exporting to mineral importing, mainly because of increasing consumption of mineral raw materials for industrialization rather than beceuse of decreasing output of domestic mineral commodities in quantity. In terms of trade patterns, the 12 commodities concerned in this study can be classified into the following four groups. The 1st group - ores of lead and tungsten have only been exported without imports. The 2nd group - amorphous graphite, and pyrophyllite have mainly been exported but partly been imported. The 3rd group - kaolin, talc and crystalline graphite have equally been exported and imported, but quantity of imports have rapidly been increased with time. The 4th group - ores of iron, manganese and zinc have shifted from exports to imports during the industrialization, particularly owing to the initiation of iron and steel making by the Pohang Iron and Steel Company in the middle 1970' s and the new establishment of the Onsan Zinc Refinery in the late 1970' s. All of the 12 commodities under considerations were far above 100% in self-sufficiency rate before or in the early 1960' s. Recently, however, most of them have been declined to below 100% except for those of limestone (cement) and pyrophyllite. It is particularly serious to identify that the self-sufficiency rates of the three important metallic minerals, iron, copper and manganese ores in 1982 appeared to be 5.1%, 0.5%, and 0.01%, respectively. The average self-sufficiency rate of the total domestic minerals produced in 1982 was 14.4% (in value) for that year. Mining industry appeared to be extremely high in its intermediate demand rate whereas its intermediate input rate to be quite low indicating that mineral raw materials have been exerted strong forward linkage effects upon the other industries rather than backward linkage effects. In comparing the curves of increasing rates of demand-supply of several major minerals - iron ore, manganese ore, copper ore, limestone (cement), kaolin, and anthracite coal - with those of Gross Domestic Production and Economic Growth Rate drawn on every graph, it is clearly shown that the curves of increasing rates of demand-supply comprise around 6 to 7 periods of cycles which roughly harmonious with those of the curves of GDP and EGR, except for the curve of anthracite coal of which the configuration seems to have resulted from the (artificial) government's mineral policy rather than from economic free market mechanism. The harmonic feature of these curves well suggests that the increasing rates of demand-supply of major minerals have been significantly contributed to the GDP and EGR. In addition, the wider amplitudes of the iron, manganese and copper curves than those of the limestone (cement) and kaolin curves indicate that the contribution of the former, metallic commodities, has been greater than that of the latter, non-metallic commodities.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.31-42
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• 2006

Drought indices, such as PDSI (palmer Drought Severity Index), SWSI (Surface Water Supply Index) and SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index), have been developed to assess and forecast an intensity of drought. To find the applicability of groundwater level data to a drought assessment, a correlation analysis between SPI and groundwater levels was conducted for each time series at a drought season in 2001. The comparative results between SPI and groundwater levels of shallow wells of three national groundwater monitoring stations, Chungju Gageum, Yangpyung Gaegun, and Yeongju Munjeong, show that these two factors are highly correlated. In case of SPI with a duration of 1 month, cross-correlation coefficients between two factors are 0.843 at Chungju Gageum, 0.825 at Yangpyung Gaegun, and 0.737 at Yeongju Munjeong. The time lag between peak values of two factors is nearly zero in case of SPI with a duration of 1 month, which means that groundwater level fluctuation is similar to SPI values. Moreover, in case of SPI with a duration of 3 month, it is found that groundwater level can be a leading indicator to predict the SPI values I week later. Some of the national groundwater monitoring stations can be designated as DIW (Drought Index Well) based on the detailed survey of site characteristics and also new DIWs need to be drilled to assess and forecast the drought in this country.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.409-420
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• 2012

Since the Industrial Revolution, CO2 levels have been increasing with climate change. In this study, Analyze time-series changes in snow cover quantitatively and predict the vanishing point of snow cover statistically using remote sensing. The study area is Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. 23 image data of Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+, spanning the 27 years from June 1984 to July 2011, were acquired. For this study, first, atmospheric correction was performed on each image using the COST atmospheric correction model. Second, the snow cover area was extracted using the NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index) algorithm. Third, the minimum height of snow cover was determined using SRTM DEM. Finally, the vanishing point of snow cover was predicted using the trend line of a linear function. Analysis was divided using a total of 23 images and 17 images during the dry season. Results show that snow cover area decreased by approximately $6.47km^2$ from $9.01km^2$ to $2.54km^2$, equivalent to a 73% reduction. The minimum height of snow cover increased by approximately 290 m, from 4,603 m to 4,893 m. Using the trend line result shows that the snow cover area decreased by approximately $0.342km^2$ in the dry season and $0.421km^2$ overall each year. In contrast, the annual increase in the minimum height of snow cover was approximately 9.848 m in the dry season and 11.251 m overall. Based on this analysis of vanishing point, there will be no snow cover 2020 at 95% confidence interval. This study can be used to monitor global climate change by providing the change in snow cover area and reference data when studying this area or similar areas in future research.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.74-83
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• 2005

The Riparian Buffer Zone has many potential values including the preservation of water quality as well as being ecologically friendly. This study aims to quantitatively analyze the landscape structure index of the Riparian Buffer Zone in the Kyoung-an stream and to produce base information necessary for proper management. The study used aerial images that were applied to geometric corrections for a time series from 1966 to 2000 for land data and also used FRAGSTATS, which is a type of ARCVIEW extension module, as an analysis tool. An analysis of land use change and the Landscape Index revealed that the area of farm land has decreased and that the area of residential property has increased. In addition, there was a slight change for land used for purposes other than farming or for residence. The results of analyzing the Landscape Structure Index, revealed that the NP has increased from 437 in 1966 to 695 in 2000. This data reveals that the change of land use is influenced by various artificial factors. The NPS, which represents the declining degree of patch, decreased from 9.441 to 5.934, revealing that the change of land use has been progressing considerably. In regard to forest areas, land use reduced somewhat but did not indicate a significant change. Therefore, an analysis of the total index reveals that the edge of patch has become more complicated and that the variation index of patch has increased significantly. However, this study reveals that barriers to block pollution have weakened as a result and that there is a need to concentrate on the implementation and the management of the Riparian Buffer Zone. Consequently, this study reveals that substantial research is necessary in order to carry out the proper management of the Riparian Buffer Zone, especially in light of the distribution type of each patch and the change in conditions regarding them.

• Journal of Science Education
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.336-345
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to analysis ERF components patterns of causal questions generated during the observation of biological phenomenon. First, the system that shows pictures causing causal questions based on biological phenomenon (evoked picture system) was developed in a way of cognitive psychology. The ERF patterns of causal questions based on time-series brain processing was observed using MEG. The evoked picture system was developed by R&D method consisting of scientific education experts and researchers. Tasks were classified into animal (A), microbe (M), and plant (P) tasks according to biological species and into interaction (I), all (A), and part (P) based on the interaction between different species. According to the collaboration with MEG team in the hospital of Seoul National University, the paradigm of MEG task was developed. MEG data about the generation of scientific questions in 5 female graduate student were collected. For examining the unique characteristic of causal question, MEG ERF components were analyzed. As a result, total 100 pictures were produced by evoked picture and 4 ERF components, M1(100~130ms), M2(220~280ms), M3(320~390ms), M4(460~520ms). The present study could guide personalized teaching-learning method through the application and development of scientific question learning program.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.146-168
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• 1995

problems involved in defining and identifying it. However, data on ownership of business establishments may be useful and one of the best alternatives for this empirical research because of use of limited information about control This study examines the spatial patterns of external control in the Korean manufacturing activities between 1986 and 1992. Using the data on ownership iinkages of multilocational firms between 15 administrative areas, it was possible to construct a matrix of organizational control in terms of the number of establishments. The control matrix was disaggregated by three types of manufacturing industries according to the capital and labor requirements of production processes used in. On the basis of the disaggregated control matrix, a series of measures were calculated for investigating the magnitude and direction of control as well as the external dependency. In the past decades Korean industrialization development has risen at a rapid pace, deepening integration into the world economy, together with the continuing growth of the large industrial firms. The expanded scale of large firms led to a spatial separation of production from control, Increasing branch plants in the nation. But recent important changes have occurred in the spatial organization of production by technological development, increasing international competition, and changing local labor markets. These changes have forced firms to reorganize their production structures, resulting in changes of the organizational structures in certain industries and regions. In this context the empirical analysis revealed the following principal trends. In general term, the geography of corporate control in Korea is marked by a twofold pattern of concentration and dispersion. The dominance of Seoul as a major command and control center has been evident over the period, though its overall share of allexternally controlled establishments has decreased from 88% to 79%. And the substantial amount of external control from Seoul has concentrated to the Kyongki and Southeast regions which are well-developed industrial areas. But Seoul's corporate ownership links tend to streteh across the country to the less-developed regions, most of which have shown a significant increase of external dependency during the period 1986-1992. At the same time, a geographic dispersion of corporate control is taking place as Kyongki province and Pusan are developing as new increasingly important command and control reaions. Though these two resions contain a number of branch plants controlled from other locations, they may be increasingly attractive as a headquarters location with increasing locally owned establishments. The geographical patterns of external control observable in each of three types of manufacturing industries were examined in order to distinguish the changing spatial structures of organizational control with respect to the characteristics of the production processes. Labor intensive manufacturing with unskilled iabor experienced the strongest external pressure from foreign competition and a lack of low cost labor. The high pressure expected not only to disinte-grate the production process but also led to location of production facilities in areas of cheap labor. The linkages of control between Seoul and the less-developed regions have slightly increased, while the external dependency of the industrialized regions might be reduced from the tendency of organizational disintegration. Capita1 intensive manufacturing operates under high entry and exit barriers due to capital intensity. The need to increase scale economies ied to an even stronger economic and spatial oncentration of control. The strong geographical oncentration of control might be influenced by orporate and organizational scale economies rather than by locational advantages. Other sectors experience with respect to branch plants of multilocational firms. The policy implications of the increase of external dependency in less-developed regions may be negative because of the very share of unskilled workers and lack of autonomy in decision making. The strong growth of the national economy and a scarcity of labor in core areas have been important factors in this regional decentralization of industries to less-developed regions. But the rather gloomy prospects of the economic growth in the near future could prevent the further industrialization of less-developed areas. A major rethinking of regional policy would have to take place towards a need for a regional policy actively favoring indigenous establishments.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.116-130
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• 2019

In South Korea, forest fire occurrences are increasing in size and duration due to various factors such as the increase in fuel materials and frequent drying conditions in forests. Therefore, it is necessary to minimize the damage caused by forest fires by appropriately providing the probability of forest fire risk. The purpose of this study is to improve the Daily Weather Index(DWI) provided by the current forest fire forecasting system in South Korea. A new Fire Risk Index(FRI) is proposed in this study, which is provided in a 5km grid through the synergistic use of numerical weather forecast data, satellite-based drought indices, and forest fire-prone areas. The FRI is calculated based on the product of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code(FFMC) optimized for Korea, an integrated drought index, and spatio-temporal weighting approaches. In order to improve the temporal accuracy of forest fire risk, monthly weights were applied based on the forest fire occurrences by month. Similarly, spatial weights were applied using the forest fire density information to improve the spatial accuracy of forest fire risk. In the time series analysis of the number of monthly forest fires and the FRI, the relationship between the two were well simulated. In addition, it was possible to provide more spatially detailed information on forest fire risk when using FRI in the 5km grid than DWI based on administrative units. The research findings from this study can help make appropriate decisions before and after forest fire occurrences.