• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series prediction

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An Analytical Solution of Flow and Progressive Wave-Induced Residual Pore Water Pressure in Seabed (흐름과 진행파에 의한 해저지반 내 잔류간극수압의 해석해)

  • Lee, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Dong-Wook;Kang, Gi-Chun;Kim, Do-Sam;Kim, Tae-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.31 no.7
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    • pp.13-28
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    • 2015
  • This study extended the Lee et al.'s (2015a) solution which improved the existing analytical solution for prediction of the residual pore water pressure into progressive wave and flow coexisting field. At this time, the variation of incident wave period and wave length should be incorporated to Lee et al.'s (2015a) analytical solution, which does not consider flow. For the case of infinite thickness, the new analytical solution using Fourier series was compared to the analytical solution using Laplace transformation proposed by Jeng and Seymour (2007). It was verified that the new solution was identical to the Jeng and Seymour's solution. After verification of the new analytical solution, the residual pore water pressure head was examined closely under various given values of flow velocity's magnitude, direction, incident wave's period and seabed thickness. In each proposed analytical solution, asymptotic approach to shallow depth with the changes in the soil thickness within finite soil thickness was found possible, but not to infinite depth. It is also identified that there exists a discrepancy case between the results obtained from the finite and the infinite seabed thicknesses even on the same soil depth.

Analysis of Global Shipping Market Status and Forecasting the Container Freight Volume of Busan New port using Time-series Model (글로벌 해운시장 현황 분석 및 시계열 모형을 이용한 부산 신항 컨테이너 물동량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • JO, Jun-Ho;Byon, Je-Seop;Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we analyze the trends of the international shipping market and the domestic and foreign factors of the crisis of the domestic shipping market, and identify the characteristics of the recovery of the Busan New Port trade volume which has decreased since the crisis of the domestic shipping market We quantitatively analyzed the future volume of Busan New Port and analyzed the trends of the prediction and recovery trends. As a result of analyzing Busan New Port container cargo volume by using big data analysis tool R, the variation of Busan New Cargo container cargo volume was estimated by ARIMA model (1,0,1) (1,0,1)[12] Estimation error, AICc and BIC were the most optimal ARIMA models. Therefore, we estimated the estimated value of Busan New Port trade for 36 months by using ARIMA (1, 0, 1)[12], which is the optimal model of Busan New Port trade, and estimated 13,157,184 TEU, 13,418,123 TEU, 13,539,884 TEU, and 4,526,406 TEU, respectively, indicating that it increased by about 2%, 2%, and 1%.

Application of High Resolution Multi-satellite Precipitation Products and a Distributed Hydrological Modeling for Daily Runoff Simulation (고해상도 다중위성 강수자료와 분포형 수문모형의 유출모의 적용)

  • Kim, Jong Pil;Park, Kyung-Won;Jung, Il-Won;Han, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Gwangseob
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.263-274
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    • 2013
  • In this study we evaluated the hydrological applicability of multi-satellite precipitation estimates. Three high-resolution global multi-satellite precipitation products, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and the Climate Precipitation Center (CPC) Morphing technique (CMORPH), were applied to the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) model for the evaluation of their hydrological utility. The CREST model was calibrated from 2002 to 2005 and validated from 2006 to 2009 in the Chungju Dam watershed, including two years of warm-up periods (2002-2003 and 2006-2007). Areal-averaged precipitation time series of the multi-satellite data were compared with those of the ground records. The results indicate that the multi-satellite precipitation can reflect the seasonal variation of precipitation in the Chungju Dam watershed. However, TMPA overestimates the amount of annual and monthly precipitation while GSMaP and CMORPH underestimate the precipitation during the period from 2002 to 2009. These biases of multi-satellite precipitation products induce poor performances in hydrological simulation, although TMPA is better than both of GSMaP and CMORPH. Our results indicate that advanced rainfall algorithms may be required to improve its hydrological applicability in South Korea.

Performance Analysis of Directors, Producers, Main Actors in Korean Movie Industry using Deciles Distribution (2004-2017) (평균 관객 수 10분위를 활용한 감독, 제작자, 배우 흥행성과 분석)

  • Kim, Jung-Ho;Kim, Jae Sung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.78-98
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    • 2018
  • On the 855 pure Korean commercial fictional movies, excluding diversity films, released in Korea from 2004 to August 2017, I conducted deciles distribution analysis of box office performance of those movies and average box office performance of directors, producers and lead actors who involved in making them. Deciles distribution analysis of average box office performance might be helpful to predict their next box office performance of newly produced Korean movies and to evaluate their contribution to box office performance. In baseball, the various index such as winning rate, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, stolen base percentage, battling average, earned run average is used for predicting and reviewing of professional players. In this study, I evaluate the script's narrative quality by the indirect method of insight and judgment of creative manpower involved in making the movies. For the more productive prediction, direct statistical analysis method on the narrative of the script needs to develop. Time series analysis is required to evaluate the rise and fall of creative manpower and network analysis is also necessary to see the interaction among creative people.

Strength Prediction Equations for High Strength Concrete by Schmidt Hammer Test (슈미트 해머 시험에 의한 고강도 콘크리트의 강도 추정식)

  • Kwon, Young-Wung;Park, Song-Chul;Kim, Min-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.3 s.93
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    • pp.389-395
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    • 2006
  • For the assessment of exsiting concrete structures, it is important to get the real strength of concrete. The load test or core test has many problems due to cost time, easiness, structural damage, and reliability and so on. Thus, various non-destructive test and statistical analysis techniques for strength assessment have been developed. As a result the real strength of concrete can be obtained by both direct and indirect test. In this study, a series of experimental tests of core strength and Schmidt hammer tests on 3, 7, 14, 28, 90, 180, 365, and 730 days' were done for predicting the compressive strength of high strength concrete with 65.0MPa of 28-days' strength. Each experimental results was analyzed by simple regression analysis. Then, reliability level and error rate between the proposed equations and the existing ones was examined. However, the application of the exsisting equations was inadequate to high strength concrete, because they were conducted under normal strength concrete. Therefore, the following compressive strength equations were proposed for predicting the compressive strength of high strength concrete by Schmidt hammer test. The proposed equations by Schmidt hammer test are as follows.

Changes Detection of Ice Dimension in Cheonji, Baekdu Mountain Using Sentinel-1 Image Classification (Sentinel-1 위성의 영상 분류 기법을 이용한 백두산 천지의 얼음 면적 변화 탐지)

  • Park, Sungjae;Eom, Jinah;Ko, Bokyun;Park, Jeong-Won;Lee, Chang-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2020
  • Cheonji, the largest caldera lake in Asia, is located at the summit of Baekdu Mountain. Cheonji is covered with snow and ice for about six months of the year due to its high altitude and its surrounding environment. Since most of the sources of water are from groundwater, the water temperature is closely related to the volcanic activity. However, in the 2000s, many volcanic activities have been monitored on the mountain. In this study, we analyzed the dimension of ice produced during winter in Baekdu Mountain using Sentinel-1 satellite image data provided by the European Space Agency (ESA). In order to calculate the dimension of ice from the backscatter image of the Sentinel-1 satellite, 20 Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) layers were generated from two polarization images using texture analysis. The method used in calculating the area was utilized with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm to classify the GLCM layer which is to calculate the dimension of ice in the image. Also, the calculated area was correlated with temperature data obtained from Samjiyeon weather station. This study could be used as a basis for suggesting an alternative to the new method of calculating the area of ice before using a long-term time series analysis on a full scale.

Analysis on Spatial Variability of Rainfall in a Small Area (소규모 지역에 대한 강우의 공간변화도 분석)

  • Kim, Jong Pil;Kim, Won;Kim, Dong-Gu;Lee, Chanjoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.11
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    • pp.905-913
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    • 2015
  • This study deployed six rain gauges in a small area for a dense network observing rainfall and analyzed the spatial variability of rainfall. They were arranged in a $2{\times}3$ rectangular grid with equal space of 60 m. The rainfall measurements from five gauges were analyzed during the period of 50 days because one was seriously affected by alien substance. The maximum difference in cumulative rainfall from them is approximately 38.5 mm. The correlation coefficients from hourly rainfall time series differ from each other while daily rainfall coincide. The coefficient of variation in hourly rainfall varies up to 224% and that in daily rainfall up to 91%. The results from uncertainty analysis show that with only four rain gauges areal mean rainfall cannot be estimated over 95% accuracy. For reliable flood prediction and effective water management it is required to develop a new technique for the estimation of areal rainfall.

Prediction of Salinity Changes for Seawater Inflow and Rainfall Runoff in Yongwon Channel (해수유입과 강우유출 영향에 따른 용원수로의 염분도 변화 예측)

  • Choo, Min Ho;Kim, Young Do;Jeong, Weon Mu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.297-306
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    • 2014
  • In this study, EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model was used to simulate the salinity distribution for sea water inflow and rainfall runoff. The flowrate was given to the boundary conditions, which can be calculated by areal-specific flowrate method from the measured flowrate of the representative outfall. The boundary condition of the water elevation can be obtained from the hourly tidal elevation. The flowrate from the outfall can be calculated using the condition of the 245 mm raifall. The simulation results showed that at Sites 1~2 and the Mangsan island (Site 4) the salinity becomes 0 ppt after the rainfall. However, the salinity is 30 ppt when there is no rainfall. Time series of the salinity changes were compared with the measured data from January 1 to December 31, 2010 at the four sites (Site 2~5) of Yongwon channel. Lower salinities are shown at the inner sites of Yongwon channel (Site 1~4) and the sites of Songjeong river (Site 7~8). The intensive investigation near the Mangsan island showed that the changes of salinity were 21.9~28.8 ppt after the rainfall of 17 mm and those of the salinity were 2.33~8.05 ppt after the cumulative rainfall of 160.5 mm. This means that the sea water circulation is blocked in Yongwon channel, and the salinity becomes lower rapidly after the heavy rain.

Bio-Sensing Convergence Big Data Computing Architecture (바이오센싱 융합 빅데이터 컴퓨팅 아키텍처)

  • Ko, Myung-Sook;Lee, Tae-Gyu
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2018
  • Biometric information computing is greatly influencing both a computing system and Big-data system based on the bio-information system that combines bio-signal sensors and bio-information processing. Unlike conventional data formats such as text, images, and videos, biometric information is represented by text-based values that give meaning to a bio-signal, important event moments are stored in an image format, a complex data format such as a video format is constructed for data prediction and analysis through time series analysis. Such a complex data structure may be separately requested by text, image, video format depending on characteristics of data required by individual biometric information application services, or may request complex data formats simultaneously depending on the situation. Since previous bio-information processing computing systems depend on conventional computing component, computing structure, and data processing method, they have many inefficiencies in terms of data processing performance, transmission capability, storage efficiency, and system safety. In this study, we propose an improved biosensing converged big data computing architecture to build a platform that supports biometric information processing computing effectively. The proposed architecture effectively supports data storage and transmission efficiency, computing performance, and system stability. And, it can lay the foundation for system implementation and biometric information service optimization optimized for future biometric information computing.

Numerical Modeling for the Detection of Debris Flow Using Detailed Soil Map and GIS (정밀토양도와 GIS를 이용한 토석류 발생지역 예측 분석)

  • Kim, Pan Gu;Han, Kun Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.43-59
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    • 2017
  • This study presents the prediction methodology of debris flow occurrence areas using the SINMAP model. Former studies used a single calibration region applying some of the soil test results to predict debris flow occurrence in SINMAP model, which couldn't subdivide the soil properties for the target areas. On the other hands, a multi-calibration region using a detailed soil map and soil strength parameters (c, ${\phi}$) for each soil series to make up for limitation of former studies is proposed. In this process, soils with soil erodibility factor (K) are classified into three types: 1) gravel and gravelly soil. 2) sand and sandy soil, and 3) silt and clay. In addition, T/R estimation method using mean elevation of target area instead of T/R method using actual occurrence time is suggested in this study. The suggested method is applied to Seobyeok-1 ri area, Bonghwa-gun where debris flow occurred. As a result of comparison between two T/R estimation method, both T/R estimations are almost equal. Therefore, the suggested methodologies in this study will contribute to set up the national-wide mitigation plan against debris flow occurrence.