• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series Analysis

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A Topic Modeling-based Recommender System Considering Changes in User Preferences (고객 선호 변화를 고려한 토픽 모델링 기반 추천 시스템)

  • Kang, So Young;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Choi, Il Young;Kang, Chang Dong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.43-56
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    • 2020
  • Recommender systems help users make the best choice among various options. Especially, recommender systems play important roles in internet sites as digital information is generated innumerable every second. Many studies on recommender systems have focused on an accurate recommendation. However, there are some problems to overcome in order for the recommendation system to be commercially successful. First, there is a lack of transparency in the recommender system. That is, users cannot know why products are recommended. Second, the recommender system cannot immediately reflect changes in user preferences. That is, although the preference of the user's product changes over time, the recommender system must rebuild the model to reflect the user's preference. Therefore, in this study, we proposed a recommendation methodology using topic modeling and sequential association rule mining to solve these problems from review data. Product reviews provide useful information for recommendations because product reviews include not only rating of the product but also various contents such as user experiences and emotional state. So, reviews imply user preference for the product. So, topic modeling is useful for explaining why items are recommended to users. In addition, sequential association rule mining is useful for identifying changes in user preferences. The proposed methodology is largely divided into two phases. The first phase is to create user profile based on topic modeling. After extracting topics from user reviews on products, user profile on topics is created. The second phase is to recommend products using sequential rules that appear in buying behaviors of users as time passes. The buying behaviors are derived from a change in the topic of each user. A collaborative filtering-based recommendation system was developed as a benchmark system, and we compared the performance of the proposed methodology with that of the collaborative filtering-based recommendation system using Amazon's review dataset. As evaluation metrics, accuracy, recall, precision, and F1 were used. For topic modeling, collapsed Gibbs sampling was conducted. And we extracted 15 topics. Looking at the main topics, topic 1, top 3, topic 4, topic 7, topic 9, topic 13, topic 14 are related to "comedy shows", "high-teen drama series", "crime investigation drama", "horror theme", "British drama", "medical drama", "science fiction drama", respectively. As a result of comparative analysis, the proposed methodology outperformed the collaborative filtering-based recommendation system. From the results, we found that the time just prior to the recommendation was very important for inferring changes in user preference. Therefore, the proposed methodology not only can secure the transparency of the recommender system but also can reflect the user's preferences that change over time. However, the proposed methodology has some limitations. The proposed methodology cannot recommend product elaborately if the number of products included in the topic is large. In addition, the number of sequential patterns is small because the number of topics is too small. Therefore, future research needs to consider these limitations.

Assessment of Ecosystem Productivity and Efficiency using Flux Measurement over Haenam Farmland Site in Korea (HFK) (플럭스 관측 기반의 생태계 생산성과 효율성 평가: 해남 농경지 연구 사례)

  • Indrawati, Yohana Maria;Kim, Joon;Kang, Minseok
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.57-72
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    • 2018
  • Time series analysis of tower flux measurement can be used to build quantitative evidence for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture (CSA). In this study, we have assessed the first objective of CSA (regarding ecosystem productivity and efficiency) for rice paddy-dominated heterogeneous farmland. A set of quantitative indicators were evaluated by analysing the time series data of carbon, water and energy fluxes over the Haenam farmland site in Korea (HFK) during the rice growing seasons from 2003 to 2015. Four different varieties of rice were cultivated during the study period in chronological order of Dongjin No. 1 (2003-2008), Nampyung (2009), Onnuri (2010-2011), and Saenuri (2012-2015). Overall at HFK, gross primary productivity (GPP) ranged from 800 to $944g\;C\;m^{-2}$, water use efficiency (WUE) ranged from 1.91 to $2.80g\;C\;kg\;H_2O^{-1}$, carbon uptake efficiency (CUE) ranged from 1.06 to 1.34, and light use efficiency (LUE) ranged from 0.99 to $1.55g\;C\;MJ^{-1}$. Among the four rice varieties, Dongjin No. 1-dominated HFK showed the highest productivity with higher WUE and LUE, but comparable CUE. Considering the heterogeneous vegetation cover at HFK, a rule of thumb comparison suggested that the productivity of Dongjin No1-dominated HFK was comparable to those of monoculture rice paddies in Asia, whereas HFK was more efficient in water use and less efficient in carbon uptake. Saenuri-dominated HFK also produced high productivity but with the growing season length longer than Dongjin No.1. Although the latter showed better traits for CSA, farmers cultivate Saenuri because of higher pest resistance (associated with adaptability and resilience). This emphasizes the need for the evaluation of other two objectives of CSA (i.e. system resilience and greenhouse gas mitigation) for complete assessment at HFK, which is currently in progress.

Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

A Phenology Modelling Using MODIS Time Series Data in South Korea (MODIS 시계열 자료(2001~2011) 및 Timesat 알고리즘에 기초한 남한 지역 식물계절 분석)

  • Kim, Nam-Shin;Cho, Yong-Chan;Oh, Seung-Hwan;Kwon, Hye-Jin;Kim, Gyung-Soon
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.186-193
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    • 2014
  • This study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal trends of phenological characteristics in South Korea by using MODIS EVI. For the phenology analysis, we had applied double logistic function to MODIS time-series data. Our results showed that starting date of phenology seems to have a tendency along with latitudinal trends. Starting date of phenology of Jeju Island and Mt. Sobeak went back for 0.38, 0.174 days per year, respectively whereas, Mt. Jiri and Mt. Seolak went forward for 0.32 days, 0.239 days and 0.119 days, respectively. Our results exhibited the fluctuation of plant phonological season rather than the change of phonological timing and season. Starting date of plant phenology by spatial distribution revealed tendency that starting date of mountain area was late, and basin and south foot of mountain was fast. In urban ares such as Seoul metropolitan, Masan, Changwon, Milyang, Daegu and Jeju, the phonological starting date went forward quickly. Pheonoligcal attributes such as starting date and leaf fall in urban areas likely being affected from heat island effect and related warming. Our study expressed that local and regional monitoring on phonological events and changes in Korea would be possible through MODIS data.

The Radiation Therapy for Spinal Cord Compression in Hematologic Malignancy (혈암에서 발생한 척추압박증상의 방사선 치료)

  • Kim In Ah;Choi Ihl Bohng;Chung Su Mi;Kang Ki Mun;Kay Chul Seong;Choi Byung Ok;Jang Ji Young;Shinn Kyung Sub;Kim Chun Choo
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.393-399
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    • 1994
  • Spinal cord compression, an oncologic emergency, is a rare complication of hematologic malignancy Our experience was obtained with a series 32 Patients following retrospective analysis for assessing the role of radiation therapy and identifying the prognostic factors affecting on treatment outcome. Diagnosis was usually made by means of radiologic study such as myelography or computerized tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neurologic examination. Five cases were diagnosed by subjective symptom only with high index of suspicion. In 31 cases, the treatment consisted in radiation therapy alone and the remained one patient had laminectomy before radiation therapy because of diagnostic doubts. Total treatment doses ranged from 800 cGy to 4000 cGy with median of 2000 cGy. Initially large fraction size more than 250 cGy were used in 13 patients with rapidly progressed neurologic deficit. The clinical parameters considered in evaluating the response to treatment were backache, motor-sensory performance and sphincter function. Half of all patients showed good response. Partial response and no response were noted in $37.5\%$ and $12.5\%$, respectively. Our results showed higher response rate than those of other solid tumor series. The degree of neurologic deficit at that time of diagnosis was the most important predictor of treatment outcome. The elapsed time from development of symptoms to start of treatment was significantly affected on the outcome. But histology of primary tumor total dose and use of initial large fraction size were not significantly affect on the outcome. These results confirmed the value of early diagnosis and treatment especially in radiosensitive hematologic malignancy.

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Time-Series Analysis and Estimation of Prospect Emissions and Prospected Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Chungbuk (온실가스 배출량 시계열 분석과 전망 배출량 및 감축 감재량 추정 - 충북을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Okjin;Moon, Yun Seob;Youn, Daeok;Song, Hyunggyu
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2022
  • In accordance with the enactment of 'the Paris Agreement' in 2015 and 'the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Response to the Climate Crisis' in 2021, each local government has set appropriate reduction target of greenhouse gas to achieve the nationally determined contribution (NDC, the reduction target of 40% compared to 2018) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030. In this study, the current distribution of GHG emissions was analyzed in a time series centered on the Chungbuk region for the period from 1990 to 2018, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions in Chungbuk by 2030 based on the 2030 NDC and scenario. In addition, the prospected reduction by 2030 was estimated considering the projected emissions according to Busines As Usual in order to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions. Our results showed that GHG emissions in Chungbuk and Korea have been increasing since 1990 owing to population and economic growth. GHG emissions in 2018 in Chungbuk were very low (3.9 %) relative to the national value. Moreover, emissions from fuel combustion, such as cement and lime production, manufacturing and construction industries, and transportation industries, were the main sources. Furthermore, the 2030 target of GHG emission reduction in Chungbuk was set at 40.2% relative to the 2018 value, in accordance with the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon-zero national scenario. Therefore, when projected emissions were considered, the prospected reduction to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions was estimated to be 46.8% relative to 2018. The above results highlight the importance of meeting the prospected reduction of GHG emissions through reduction means in each sector to achieve the national and local GHG reduction target. In addition, to achieve the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon zero, the country and each local government, including Chungbuk, need to estimate projected emissions by year, determine reduction targets and prospect reductions every year, and prepare specific means to reduce GHG emissions.

Analysis of Changes in Pine Forests According to Natural Forest Dynamics Using Time-series NFI Data (시계열 국가산림자원조사 자료 기반 자연적 임분동태 변화에 따른 소나무림의 감소 특성 평가)

  • Eun-Sook Kim;Jong Bin Jung;Sinyoung Park
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.113 no.1
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    • pp.40-50
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    • 2024
  • Pine forests are continuously declining due to competition with broadleaf trees, such as oaks, as a consequence of changes in the natural dynamics of forest ecosystem. This natural decline creates a risk of losing the various benefits pine trees have provided to people in the past. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare future forest management directions by considering the state of pine tree decline in each region. The goal of this study is to understand the characteristics of pine forest changes according to forest dynamics and to predict future regional changes. For this purpose, we evaluated the trend of change in pine forests and extracted various variables(topography, forest stand type, disturbance, and climate) that affect the change, using time-series National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Also, using selected key variables, a model was developed to predict future changes in pine forests. As a results, it showed that the importance of pine trees in forests across the country has decreased overall over the past 10 years. Also, 75% of the sample points representing pine trees remained unchanged, while the remaining 25% had changed to mixed forests. It was found that these changes mainly occurred in areas with good moisture conditions or disturbance factors inside and outside the forest. In the next 10 years, approximately 14.2% of current pine forests was predicted to convert to mixed forests due to changes in natural forest dynamics. Regionally, the rate of pine forest change was highest in Jeju(42.8%) and Gyeonggi(26.9%) and lowest in Gyeongbuk(8.8%) and Gangwon(13.8%). It was predicted that pine forests would be at a high risk of decline in western areas of the Korean Peninsula, including Gyeonggi, Chungcheong, and Jeonnam. This results can be used to make a management plan for pine forests throughout the country.

Estimation of Groundwater Recharge by Considering Runoff Process and Groundwater Level Variation in Watershed (유역 유출과정과 지하수위 변동을 고려한 분포형 지하수 함양량 산정방안)

  • Chung, Il-Moon;Kim, Nam-Won;Lee, Jeong-Woo
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2007
  • In Korea, there have been various methods of estimating groundwater recharge which generally can be subdivided into three types: baseflow separation method by means of groundwater recession curve, water budget analysis based on lumped conceptual model in watershed, and water table fluctuation method (WTF) by using the data from groundwater monitoring wells. However, groundwater recharge rate shows the spatial-temporal variability due to climatic condition, land use and hydrogeological heterogeneity, so these methods have various limits to deal with these characteristics. To overcome these limitations, we present a new method of estimating recharge based on water balance components from the SWAT-MODFLOW which is an integrated surface-ground water model. Groundwater levels in the interest area close to the stream have dynamics similar to stream flow, whereas levels further upslope respond to precipitation with a delay. As these behaviours are related to the physical process of recharge, it is needed to account for the time delay in aquifer recharge once the water exits the soil profile to represent these features. In SWAT, a single linear reservoir storage module with an exponential decay weighting function is used to compute the recharge from soil to aquifer on a given day. However, this module has some limitations expressing recharge variation when the delay time is too long and transient recharge trend does not match to the groundwater table time series, the multi-reservoir storage routing module which represents more realistic time delay through vadose zone is newly suggested in this study. In this module, the parameter related to the delay time should be optimized by checking the correlation between simulated recharge and observed groundwater levels. The final step of this procedure is to compare simulated groundwater table with observed one as well as to compare simulated watershed runoff with observed one. This method is applied to Mihocheon watershed in Korea for the purpose of testing the procedure of proper estimation of spatio-temporal groundwater recharge distribution. As the newly suggested method of estimating recharge has the advantages of effectiveness of watershed model as well as the accuracy of WTF method, the estimated daily recharge rate would be an advanced quantity reflecting the heterogeneity of hydrogeology, climatic condition, land use as well as physical behaviour of water in soil layers and aquifers.

A Study of Influence about Life Insurance Asset Management to Interest Decline (금리하락이 생명보험회사 자산운용실태에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Hee-seog;Kim, Sun-Je
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.99-116
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this paper is to see what the problem is and what the direction of the strategy of asset management after this study has analyzed asset management status of domestic life insurance companies according to interest rate trends, analyzing in time series management asset lists, asset distribution state, and securities list of life insurance companies during 2000~2014. It has carried correlation analysis and regression analysis between yield and bond interest KOSPI index. As the study result, life insurance companies have managed assets in stability than profitability. The correlation coefficient between interest rate and performance rates of total asset, management asset and securities is highly plus, correlation of management asset performance rate is higher than that of total asset performance rate, and the correlation of securities performance rate is higher than that of management asset performance rate. The correlation coefficient of KOSPI and performance rate shows minus. The suggestion is that the change of asset management is required as the interest decline rises up a reverse margin risk because of the asset management of stability.

A Study on Development of a GIS based Post-processing System of the EFDC Model for Supporting Water Quality Management (수질관리 지원을 위한 GIS기반의 EFDC 모델 후처리 시스템 개발 연구)

  • Lee, Geon Hwi;Kim, Kye Hyun;Park, Yong Gil;Lee, Sung Joo
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.39-47
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    • 2014
  • The Yeongsan river estuary has a serious water quality problem due to the water stagnation and it is imperative to predict the changes of water quality for mitigating water pollution. EFDC(Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model was mainly utilized to predict the changes of water quality for the estuary. The EFDC modeling normally accompanies the large volume of modeling output. For checking the spatial distribution of the modeling results, post-processing for converting of the output is prerequisite and mainly post-processing program is EFDC_Explorer. However, EFDC_Explorer only shows the spatial distribution of the time series and this doesn't support overlay function with other thematic maps. This means the impossible to the connection analysis with a various GIS data and high dimensional analysis. Therefore, this study aims to develop a post-processing system of a EFDC output to use them as GIS layers. For achieving this purpose, a editing module for main input files, and a module for converting binary format into an ASCII format, and a module for converting it into a layer format to use in a GIS based environment, and a module for visualizing the reconfigured model result efficiently were developed. Using the developed system, result file is possible to automatically convert the GIS based layer and it is possible to utilize for water quality management.