• 제목/요약/키워드: Time series simulation

검색결과 689건 처리시간 0.024초

쌍구형 회전교차로 도입에 따른 운영효과 연구 (An Analysis of Operational Effects of Adjacent Double Roundabouts)

  • 김노현;김명수
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.42-52
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 대전광역시 중구에 위치한 대고오거리와 성모오거리를 대상으로 회전교차로 도입 시 나타나는 효과에 대하여 미시적 교통시뮬레이션 프로그램인 VISSIM을 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과 기존 교차로의 구간 별 평균 통행속도는 31.51km/h로 분석되었으며, 평균 지체시간은 32.5초로 분석되었다. 대고오거리만 회전교차로로 전환시 평균 통행속도 35.04km/h, 평균 지체시간 24.5초로 분석되었고, 성모오거리만 회전교차로로 전환될시 구간별 평균 통행속도는 34.79km/h, 지점별 평균 지체시간은 28.0초로 분석되었다. 마지막으로 대상지 2개 지점을 쌍구형 회전교차로로 전환 될 시의 구간 별 평균 통행속도는 38.62km/h, 지점별 평균 지체시간은 20.4초로 분석되었다. 이와 같이 두 개 교차로를 각각 회전교차로로 전환하는 시나리오에서 지체시간이 감소하는 것으로 나타났고, 두 개 지점을 모두 회전교차로로 연결하는 쌍구형 회전교차로 전환시 지체시간이 가장 적게 나타나 기존 교차로에 비해 효율적이라고 판단되었다.

한국 남해의 어획대상 환경수용량 추정 연구 (Estimation of the Exploitable Carrying Capacity in the Korean Water of the East China Sea)

  • 장창익;서영일;강희중
    • 수산해양교육연구
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.513-525
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    • 2017
  • In the estimation of the exploitable carrying capacity (ECC) in the Korean water of the East China Sea, two approaches, which are the ecosystem modeling method (EMM) and the holistic production method (HPM), were applied. The EMM is accomplished by Ecopath with Ecosim model using a number of ecological data and fishery catch for each species group, which was categorized by a self-organizing mapping (SOM) based on eight biological characteristics of species. In this method, the converged value during the Ecosim simulation by setting the instantaneous rate of fishing mortality (F) as zero was estimated as the ECC of each group. The HPM is to use surplus production models for estimateing ECC. The ECC estimates were 4.6 and 5.1 million mt (mmt) from EMM and HPM, respectiverly. The estimate from the EMM has a considerable uncertainty due to the lack of confidence in input ecological parameters, especially production/biomass ratio (P/B) and consumption/biomass ratio (Q/B). However, ECC from the HPM was estimated on the basis of relatively fewer assumptions and long time-series fishery data as input, so the estimate from the HPM is regarded as more reasonable estimate of ECC, although the ECC estimate could be considerd as a preliminary one. The quality of input data should be improved for the future study of the ECC to obtain more reliable estimate.

대형주강품에 대한 CAE 시스템 개발 연구 (Development of a Simultaneous CAE System for the Application to Large Steel Castings)

  • 이영철;이두호;김종기;소찬영;최정길;홍준표
    • 한국주조공학회지
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    • 제17권5호
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    • pp.465-471
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    • 1997
  • An integrated computer program consisting of a pre-processor, main solver, and post-processor was developed for the design of large steel castings. The pre-processor, based on the AutoCAD, enables the user to produce approval drawings, casting design drawings and mesh diagrams in sequence using a personal computer. In the main solver, two numerical models were employed; one models the fluid flow during mold filling, and the other models the heat transfer and solidification. The post-processor can be used to present simulation results such as flow pattern, mold filling sequences, solidification times, temperature gradients and location of shrinkage defects by color graphics. In order to validate the applicability of the present integrated program, a series of experiments on simple-shaped steel castings were carried out. After the validation of the present model, it was applied to the casting design of the large steel anchor of an SC42 alloy. Various solidification parameters such as a temperature distribution and a solidification time in the casting and the mold were compared with those obtained experimentally. Simulated results predicting shrinkage defects were in good agreement with those obtained experimentally. It was found that the present method can be successfully applied to the quantitative casting design for complex-shaped large steel castings.

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MOS 가변저항을 이용한 로렌츠 회로의 PSPICE 해석 (PSPICE analysis of the Lorenz circuit using the MOS resistor)

  • 지성현;김부강;남상국;응우웬 반 하;박용수;송한정
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.1348-1354
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    • 2015
  • 논문에서는 공학적 응용을 위한 로렌츠 카오스 회로를 연산증폭기, 곱셈기 및 MOS 가변저항 등을 이용하여 전자회로로 구현하였다. PSPICE 모의실험을 통하여, MOS 저항의 전압 변화에 따라, 로렌츠 회로가 주기상태, 카오스 상태로 변하는 것을 시간파형, 주파수 특성 및 위상특성 등을 통하여 보였다. 제안하는 회로를, 하드웨어로 구현하여 MOS 저항의 전압변화에 따라 로렌츠 회로의 카오스 다이내믹스가 제어됨을 확인하였다.

물리적 표토침식모형의 개발과 적용 (Development and Application of a Physics-based Soil Erosion Model)

  • 유완식;박준구;양재의;임경재;김성철;박윤식;황상일;이기하
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.66-73
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    • 2017
  • Empirical erosion models like Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) models have been widely used to make spatially distributed soil erosion vulnerability maps. Even if the models detect vulnerable sites relatively well utilizing big data related to climate, geography, geology, land use, etc within study domains, they do not adequately describe the physical process of soil erosion on the ground surface caused by rainfall or overland flow. In other words, such models are still powerful tools to distinguish the erosion-prone areas at large scale, but physics-based models are necessary to better analyze soil erosion and deposition as well as the eroded particle transport. In this study a physics-based soil erosion modeling system was developed to produce both runoff and sediment yield time series at watershed scale and reflect them in the erosion and deposition maps. The developed modeling system consists of 3 sub-systems: rainfall pre-processor, geography pre-processor, and main modeling processor. For modeling system validation, we applied the system for various erosion cases, in particular, rainfall-runoff-sediment yield simulation and estimation of probable maximum sediment (PMS) correlated with probable maximum rainfall (PMP). The system provided acceptable performances of both applications.

Analysis of Dynamic Response Characteristics for 5 MW Jacket-type Fixed Offshore Wind Turbine

  • Kim, Jaewook;Heo, Sanghwan;Koo, WeonCheol
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제35권5호
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    • pp.347-359
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to evaluate the dynamic responses of the jacket-type offshore wind turbine using FAST software (Fatigue, Aerodynamics, Structures, and Turbulence). A systematic series of simulation cases of a 5 MW jacket-type offshore wind turbine, including wind-only, wave-only, wind & wave load cases are conducted. The dynamic responses of the wind turbine structure are obtained, including the structure displacement, rotor speed, thrust force, nacelle acceleration, bending moment at the tower bottom, and shear force on the jacket leg. The calculated time-domain results are transformed to frequency domain results using FFT and the environmental load with more impact on each dynamic response is identified. It is confirmed that the dynamic displacements of the wind turbine are dominant in the wave frequency under the incident wave alone condition, and the rotor thrust, nacelle acceleration, and bending moment at the bottom of the tower exhibit high responses in the natural frequency band of the wind turbine. In the wind only condition, all responses except the vertical displacement of the wind turbine are dominant at three times the rotor rotation frequency (considering the number of blades) generated by the wind. In a combined external force with wind and waves, it was observed that the horizontal displacement is dominant by the wind load. Additionally, the bending moment on the tower base is highly affected by the wind. The shear force of the jacket leg is basically influenced by the wave loads, but it can be affected by both the wind and wave loads especially under the turbulent wind and irregular wave conditions.

에너지 인터넷을 위한 GRU기반 전력사용량 예측 (Prediction of Power Consumptions Based on Gated Recurrent Unit for Internet of Energy)

  • 이동구;선영규;심이삭;황유민;김수환;김진영
    • 전기전자학회논문지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.120-126
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    • 2019
  • 최근 에너지 인터넷에서 지능형 원격검침 인프라를 이용하여 확보된 대량의 전력사용데이터를 기반으로 효과적인 전력수요 예측을 위해 다양한 기계학습기법에 관한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 전력량 데이터와 같은 시계열 데이터에 대해 효율적으로 패턴인식을 수행하는 인공지능 네트워크인 Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU)을 기반으로 딥 러닝 모델을 제안하고, 실제 가정의 전력사용량 데이터를 토대로 예측 성능을 분석한다. 제안한 학습 모델의 예측 성능과 기존의 Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) 인공지능 네트워크 기반의 전력량 예측 성능을 비교하며, 성능평가 지표로써 Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Forecast Skill Score, Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Normalized Mean Bias Error (NMBE)를 이용한다. 실험 결과에서 GRU기반의 제안한 시계열 데이터 예측 모델의 전력량 수요 예측 성능이 개선되는 것을 확인한다.

아티큘레이티드 타워 형태의 부이 구조물에 관한 파랑 중 운동응답 및 앵커 지지력에 관한 모형시험 연구 (Model Test on Motion Responses and Anchor Reaction Forces of an Articulated Tower-Type Buoy Structure in Waves)

  • 권용주;남보우;김남우;원영욱;박인보;김시문
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.214-221
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    • 2019
  • A series of model tests was performed to evaluate the survivability of an articulated tower-type buoy structure under harsh environmental conditions. The buoy structure consisted of three long pipes, a buoyancy module, and top equipment. The scale model was made of acrylic pipe and plastic with a scale ratio of 1/22. The experiments were carried out at the ocean engineering basin of KRISO. The performance of the buoy structure was investigated under waves only and under combined environmental conditions from sea state (SS) 5 to 7. A nonlinear time-domain numerical simulation was conducted using the mooring analysis program OrcaFlex. The survivability of the buoy was analyzed based on three factors: the pitch motion, submergence of the top structure, and anchor reaction force. The model test results were directly compared to the results of numerical simulations. The effects of the sea state and combined environment on the performance of the buoy structure were investigated.

Seismic pounding effects on the adjacent symmetric buildings with eccentric alignment

  • Abdel Raheem, Shehata E.;Fooly, Mohamed Y.M.;Omar, Mohamed;Abdel Zaher, Ahmed K.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.715-726
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    • 2019
  • Several municipal seismic vulnerability investigations have been identified pounding of adjacent structures as one of the main hazards due to the constrained separation distance between adjacent buildings. Consequently, an assessment of the seismic pounding risk of buildings is superficial in future adjustment of design code provisions for buildings. The seismic lateral oscillation of adjacent buildings with eccentric alignment is partly restrained, and therefore a torsional response demand is induced in the building under earthquake excitation due to eccentric pounding. In this paper, the influence of the eccentric seismic pounding on the design demands for adjacent symmetric buildings with eccentric alignment is presented. A mathematical simulation is formulated to evaluate the eccentric pounding effects on the seismic design demands of adjacent buildings, where the seismic response analysis of adjacent buildings in series during collisions is investigated for various design parameters that include number of stories; in-plan alignment configurations, and then compared with that for no-pounding case. According to the herein outcomes, the effects of seismic pounding severity is mainly depending on characteristics of vibrations of the adjacent buildings and on the characteristics of input ground motions as well. The position of the building wherever exterior or interior alignment also, influences the seismic pounding severity as the effect of exposed direction from one or two sides. The response of acceleration and the shear force demands appear to be greater in case of adjacent buildings as seismic pounding at different levels of stories, than that in case of no-pounding buildings. The results confirm that torsional oscillations due to eccentric pounding play a significant role in the overall pounding-involved response of symmetric buildings under earthquake excitation due to horizontal eccentric alignment.

희박 벡터 자기 회귀 모형의 로버스트 추정 (Robust estimation of sparse vector autoregressive models)

  • 김동영;백창룡
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제35권5호
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    • pp.631-644
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    • 2022
  • 본 논문은 고차원 시계열 자료에 이상점이 존재하는 경우 희박벡터자기회귀모형(sparse VAR; sVAR)의 모수를 강건하게 추정하는 방법에 대해서 연구하였다. 먼저 Xu 등 (2008)이 독립인 자료에서 밝혔듯이 adaptive lasso 방법이 sVAR 모형에서도 어느 정도의 강건함을 가짐을 모의 실험을 통해 알 수 있었다. 하지만, 이상점의 개수가 증가하거나 이상점의 영향력이 커지는 경우 효율성이 현저히 저하되는 현상도 관찰할 수 있었다. 따라서 이를 개선하기 위해서 최소절대편차(least absolute deviation; LAD)와 Huber 함수를 기반으로 벌점화 시키는 adaptive lasso를 이용하여 sVAR 모형을 추정하는 방법을 본 논문에서는 제안하고 그 성능을 검토하였다. 모의 실험을 통해 제안한 로버스트 추정 방법이 이상점이 존재하는 경우에 모수 추정을 더 정확하게 하고 예측 성능도 뛰어남을 확인했다. 또한 해당 방법론들을 전력사용량 데이터에 적용한 결과 이상점으로 의심되는 시점들이 존재하였고, 이를 고려하여 강건하게 추정하는 제안한 방법론이 더 좋은 예측 성능을 보임을 확인할 수 있었다.