• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time series simulation

Search Result 689, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

A Dynamic Inferential Framework for Learning Geometry Problem Solving (기하 문제 학습을 위한 동적 추론 체계)

  • Kook, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.412-421
    • /
    • 2000
  • In spite that the main contents of mathematical and scientific learning are understanding principles and their applications, most of existing educational softwares are based on rote learning, thus resulting in limited educational effects. In the artificial intelligence research, some progress has been made in developing automatic tutors based on proving and simulation, by adapting the techniques of knowledge representation, search and inference to the design of tutors. However, these tutors still fall short of being practical and the turor, even a prototype model, for learning problem solving is yet to come out. The geometry problem-solving tutor proposed by this research involves dynamic inference performed in parallel with learning. As an ontology for composing the problem space within a real-time setting, we have employed the notions of propositions, hypotheses and operators. Then we investigated the mechanism of interactive learning of problem solving in which the main target of inference involves the generation and the test of these components. Major accomplishment from this research is a practical model of a problem tutor embedded with a series of inference techniques for algebraic manipulation, which is indispensable in geometry problem solving but overlooked by previous research. The proposed model is expected to be applicable to the design of problem tutors in other scientific areas such as physics and electric circuitry.

  • PDF

Numerical Experiment of Low Salinity Due to the Variation of Yangtze River Discharge in East China Sea (동중국해역에서 양자강 유출량 변화에 따른 저염확산 수치실험)

  • 황재동;조규대;정희동;박성은
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.53-57
    • /
    • 2003
  • Low salinity water appears by outflow of fresh water from the Yangtze River in southwestern sea of the Korean peninsula. The water volume discharged form the Yangtze River is not constant with year, according to the time series data recorded in the past, the maximum value of the discharged volume is two times as high asr minimum value. Therefore, the distribution of low salinity water over study area with different discharged fresh water volume is studied using numerical model, Princeton Ocean Model (POM). POM is three dimensional circulation model selecting a $\sigma$­coordinate. According to the result of numerical simulation by the Model, current velocity on the continental slope is faster than those in other regions, current which flows toward the central part of the Yellow Sea through western part of Jeju exists, and also, southward flow along the coastal region exists. the greater discharged volume from the Yangrze River is. the lower salinity water appears closer to Jeju.

  • PDF

Temporal Variability of Reduced Sulfur Compounds (RSC) Collected in Tedlar Bag: Simulation of Sample Stability in the Emission Sources (배출원에서의 Tedlar-bag 시료채집법을 이용한 황화합물의 경시적 농도 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Jo, Hyo-Jae;Shon, Zang-Ho;Hong, One-Feel;Kim, Ki-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
    • /
    • v.27 no.3
    • /
    • pp.281-290
    • /
    • 2011
  • In this study, a series of experiments were carried out to measure temporal stability of reduced sulfur compounds (RSCs) in Tedlar bag samples as a function of elapsed storage time. To this end, temporal variability of 4 RSC standard gases ($H_2S$, $CH_3SH$, DMS, DMDS) was measured up to 29 days. For the purpose of comparison, RSC samples were stored in both individual and mixed state. In the case of mixed standard, samples were also examined to allow comparison between light and dark condition. Then results of $CH_3SH$ data were the most stable with the least change in its concentrations through the end of exps (29 days). When compared with previous studies, the extent of stability appeared to be influenced by the initial concentration levels of samples. When the patterns were compared between individual and mixture samples, differences were not significant in the case of $H_2S$ and DMS. The effects of light conditions on temporal stability were seen to be fairly sensitive on most RSC other than $H_2S$. The results of our study confirm that the stability of RSC storage is affected by their involvement in photochemical reactions.

A CUSUM Chart for Detecting Mean Shifts of Oscillating Pattern (진동 패턴의 평균 변화 탐지를 위한 누적합 관리도)

  • Lee, Jae-June;Kim, Duk-Rae;Lee, Jong-Seon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.22 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1191-1201
    • /
    • 2009
  • The cumulative sum(CUSUM) control charts are typically used for detecting small level shifts in process control. To control an auto-correlated process, the model-based control methods can be employed, in which the residuals from fitting a time series model are applied to the CUSUM chart. However, the persistent level shifts in the original process may lead to varying mean shifts in residuals, which may deteriorate detection performance significantly. Therefore, in this paper, focussing on ARMA(1,1), we propose a new CUSUM type control method which can detect the dynamic mean shifts in residuals especially with oscillating pattern effectively and, through the simulation study, evaluate its performance by comparing with other various CUSUM type control methods introduced so far.

Development of Model Estimating Fertility Rate for Korea (출산율 예측 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Sam-Sik;Choi, Hyo-Jin
    • Korea journal of population studies
    • /
    • v.35 no.1
    • /
    • pp.77-99
    • /
    • 2012
  • This study aimed at developing a model for estimating fertility rates for Korea under some conditions. The model is expected to provide the basic information for establishing and evaluating the polices in prompt and adequate response to low fertility and population ageing. The model was established on the basis of experiences by some OECD countries in Europe, having experienced the fertility increase trend and being economically well-developed, because Korea has never experienced the steady increase in fertility rate since 1960. This study collected about 20 years' time series data for each of selected countries and applied to the regression model, which is called a 'panel analysis' to take into considerations both cross-sectional and longitudinal aspects of fertility change simultaneously. Simulation of the model for Korea and some panel countries showed a very small difference, less than 0.1, between the estimated rate and the observed rate for each year during 2006~2010. Thus, the model, as established in this study, is evaluated as accurate or well-fitted to a considerable extent.

  • PDF

Computational Study on Unsteady Mechanism of Spinning Detonations

  • Matsuo, Akiko;Sugiyama, Yuta
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2008.03a
    • /
    • pp.367-373
    • /
    • 2008
  • Spinning detonations propagating in a circular tube were numerically investigated with a one-step irreversible reaction model governed by Arrhenius kinetics. Activation energy is used as parameter as 10, 20, 27 and 35, and the specific heat ratio and the heat release are fixed as 1.2 and 50. The time evolution of the simulation results was utilized to reveal the propagation mechanism of single-headed spinning detonation. The track angle of soot record on the tube wall was numerically reproduced with various levels of activation energy, and the simulated unique angle was the same as that of the previous reports. The maximum pressure histories of the shock front on the tube wall showed stable pitch at Ea=10, periodical unstable pitch at Ea=20 and 27 and unstable pitch consisting of stable, periodical unstable and weak modes at Ea=35, respectively. In the weak mode, there is no Mach leg on the shock front, where the pressure level is much lower than the other modes. The shock front shapes and the pressure profiles on the tube wall clarified the mechanisms of these stable and unstable modes. In the stable pitch at Ea=10, the maximum pressure history on the tube wall remained nearly constant, and the steady single Mach leg on the shock front rotated at a constant speed. The high and low frequency pressure oscillations appeared in the periodical unstable pitch at Ea=20 and 27 of the maximum pressure history. The high frequency was one cycle of a self-induced oscillation by generation and decay in complex Mach interaction due to the variation in intensity of the transverse wave behind the shock front. Eventually, sequential high frequency oscillations formed the low frequency behavior because the frequency behavior was not always the same for each cycle. In unstable pitch at Ea=35, there are stable, periodical unstable and weak modes in one cycle of the low frequency oscillation in the maximum pressure history, and the pressure amplitude of low frequency was much larger than the others. The pressure peak appeared after weak mode, and the stable, periodical unstable and weak modes were sequentially observed with pressure decay. A series of simulations of spinning detonations clarified that the unsteady mechanism behind the shock front depending on the activation energy.

  • PDF

Computational Study on Unsteady Mechanism of Spinning Detonations

  • Matsuo, Akiko;Sugiyama, Yuta
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2008.10a
    • /
    • pp.367-373
    • /
    • 2008
  • Spinning detonations propagating in a circular tube were numerically investigated with a one-step irreversible reaction model governed by Arrhenius kinetics. Activation energy is used as parameter as 10, 20, 27 and 35, and the specific heat ratio and the heat release are fixed as 1.2 and 50. The time evolution of the simulation results was utilized to reveal the propagation mechanism of single-headed spinning detonation. The track angle of soot record on the tube wall was numerically reproduced with various levels of activation energy, and the simulated unique angle was the same as that of the previous reports. The maximum pressure histories of the shock front on the tube wall showed stable pitch at Ea=10, periodical unstable pitch at Ea=20 and 27 and unstable pitch consisting of stable, periodical unstable and weak modes at Ea=35, respectively. In the weak mode, there is no Mach leg on the shock front, where the pressure level is much lower than the other modes. The shock front shapes and the pressure profiles on the tube wall clarified the mechanisms of these stable and unstable modes. In the stable pitch at Ea=10, the maximum pressure history on the tube wall remained nearly constant, and the steady single Mach leg on the shock front rotated at a constant speed. The high and low frequency pressure oscillations appeared in the periodical unstable pitch at Ea=20 and 27 of the maximum pressure history. The high frequency was one cycle of a self-induced oscillation by generation and decay in complex Mach interaction due to the variation in intensity of the transverse wave behind the shock front. Eventually, sequential high frequency oscillations formed the low frequency behavior because the frequency behavior was not always the same for each cycle. In unstable pitch at Ea=35, there are stable, periodical unstable and weak modes in one cycle of the low frequency oscillation in the maximum pressure history, and the pressure amplitude of low frequency was much larger than the others. The pressure peak appeared after weak mode, and the stable, periodical unstable and weak modes were sequentially observed with pressure decay. A series of simulations of spinning detonations clarified that the unsteady mechanism behind the shock front depending on the activation energy.

  • PDF

The development and application of on-line model for the prediction of roll force in hot strip rolling (얼간 사상 압연중 압하력 예측 모델 개발 및 적용)

  • Lee J. H.;Choi J. W.;Kwak W. J.;Hwang S. M.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Technology of Plasticity Conference
    • /
    • 2004.08a
    • /
    • pp.175-183
    • /
    • 2004
  • In hot strip rolling, a capability for precisely predicting roll force is crucial for sound process control. In the past, on-line prediction models have been developed mostly on the basis of Orowan's theory and its variation. However, the range of process conditions in which desired prediction accuracy could be achieved was rather limited, mainly due to many simplifying assumptions inherent to Orowan's theory. As far as the prediction accuracy is concerned, a rigorously formulated finite element(FE) process model is perhaps the best choice. However, a FE process model in general requires a large CPU time, rendering itself inadequate for on-line purpose. In this report, we present a FE-based on-line prediction model applicable to precision process control in a finishing mill(FM). Described was an integrated FE process model capable of revealing the detailed aspects of the thermo-mechanical behavior of the roll-strip system. Using the FE process model, a series of process simulation was conducted to investigate the effect of diverse process variables on some selected non-dimensional parameters characterizing the thermo-mechanical behavior of the strip. Then, it was shown that an on-line model for the prediction of roll force could be derived on the basis of these parameters. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model was examined through comparison with measurements from the hot strip mill.

  • PDF

Development of Large Signal Model Extractor and Small Signal Model Verification for GaAs FET Devices (GaAs FET소자 모델링을 위한 소신호 모델의 검증과 대신호 모델 추출기 개발)

  • 최형규;전계익;김병성;이종철;이병제;김종헌;김남영
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
    • /
    • v.12 no.5
    • /
    • pp.787-794
    • /
    • 2001
  • In this paper, the development of large-signal model extractor for GaAs FET device through the Monolithic Microwave integrated Circuit(MMIC) is presented. The measurement program controlled by personal computer is developed for the processing of an amount of measured data, and the de-embedding algorithm is added to the program for voltage dropping as attached series resistance on measurement system. The small-signal model parameters are typically consisted of 7 elements that are considered as complexity of large-signal model and its the accuracy of the small-signal model is verified through comparing with measured data as varied bias point. The fitting function model, one of the empirical model, is used for quick simulation. In the process of large-signal model parameter extraction, one-dimensional optimization method is proposed and optimized parameters are extracted. This study can reduce the modeling and measuring time and can secure a suitable model for circuit.

  • PDF

Analysis of Performance of Focused Beamformer Using Water Pulley Model Array (수차 모형 배열을 이용한 표적추정 (Focused) 빔형성기 성능분석)

  • 최주평;이원철
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.20 no.5
    • /
    • pp.83-91
    • /
    • 2001
  • This paper proposes the Focused beamforming to estimate the location of target residing near to the observation platform in the underwater environment. The Focused beamforming technique provides the location of target by the coherent summation of a series of incident spherical waveforms considering distinct propagation delay times at the sensor array. But due to the movement of the observation platform and the variation of the underwater environment, the shape of the sensor array is no longer to be linear but it becomes distorted as the platform moves. Thus the Focused beamforming should be peformed regarding to the geometric shape variation at each time. To estimate the target location, the artificial image plane comprised of cells is constructed, and the delays are calculated from each cell where the target could be proximity to sensors for the coherent summation. After the coherent combining, the beam pattern can be obtained through the Focused beamforming on the image plane. Futhermore to compensate the variation of the shape of the sensor array, the paper utilizes the Nth-order polynomial approximation to estimate the shape of the sensor array obeying the water pulley modeling. Simulation results show the performance of the Focused beamforming for different frequency bands of the radiated signal.

  • PDF