• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time series model

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Influence of the Business Portfolio Diversification on Construction Companies' Financial Stability (건설업체 사업 포트폴리오 다각화에 따른 건설업체 안정성 분석)

  • Jang, Sewoong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between the degree of business diversification of a construction company and two of the indicators that represent financial stability, namely, a current ratio and a debt ratio, in order to draw policy implications. The current ratio and the debt ratio were used as variables that represent financial stability of a construction company. Berry-Herfindahl Index was used to measure the degree of business portfolio diversification of a construction company. For the analysis, quarterly time series data were retrieved from the financial information disclosure system of Korea's Financial Supervisory Service for the period between the first quarter of 2001 and the third quarter of 2013. The analysis results showed that a higher current ratio and a debt ratio led to a greater extent of business diversification. A higher level of business diversification led to a higher current ratio and a lower debt ratio. It was also shown that the impact of business diversification on the current ratio and the debt ratio outweighed the impact of changes in the current ratio and the debt ratio on business diversification. Meanwhile, an increase in the level of business diversification showed a quite positive effect as it raised the current ratio and lowered the debt ratio of a construction company. These findings suggest that diversification of business portfolio is essential for construction companies to strengthen their financial stability.

The Price Discovery ana Volatility Spillover of Won/Dollar Futures (통화선물의 가격예시 기능과 변동성 전이효과)

  • Kim, Seok-Chin;Do, Young-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2006
  • This study examines whether won/dollar futures have price discovery function and volatility spillover effect or not, using intraday won/dollar futures prices, volumes, and spot rates for the interval from March 2, 2005 through May 30, 2005. Futures prices and spot rates are non-stationary, but there is the cointegration relationship between two time series. Futures returns, spot returns, and volumes are stationary. Asymmetric effects on volatility in futures returns and spot returns does not exist. Analytical results of mean equations of the BGARCH-EC (bivariate GARCH-error correction) model show that the increase of futures returns raise spot returns after 5 minutes, which implies that futures returns lead spot returns and won/dollar futures have price discovery function. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationship between the two returns could help forecast spot returns. Analytical results of variance equations indicate that short-run innovations in the futures market positively affect the conditional variances of spot returns, that is, there is the volatility spillover effect in the won/dollar futures market. A dummy variable of volumes does not have an effect on two returns but influences significantly on two conditional variances.

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Pore Water Chemistry of Intertidal Mudflat Sediments: 1. Seasonal Variability of Nutrient Profiles (S, N, P) (조간대 퇴적물의 공극수 지구화학 : 1. 용존 영양염 (S, N, P)의 계절변화)

  • Lee, Chang-Bok;Kim, Dong-Seon
    • 한국해양학회지
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.8-20
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    • 1990
  • A series of pore water data were obtained during the different time over one year period between October 1987 and October 1988, from a site on a muddy intertidal flat, located in the Kyeong-gi Bay, west coast of Korea, The results have revealed that the tidal flat is an environment of active nutrient the subface supplied by the overlying seawater is almost completely removed from the pore water at depth of about 10 cm below the sediment surface. The nutrients such as ammonium and phosphate are produced through this process and subsequently accumulated in the pore water forming steep gradients near the sediment surface. Below the main sulfate redirection zone, a secondary peak of dissolved sulfate was often observed. Greal seasonal variation of the pore water nutrient profiles was observed, which was particularly clear in their maximum concentration as well as in their concentration gradient. The rate constants of sulfate reduction and nutrient regeneration, estimated by using a diagenetic model (Berner, 1980), differ by an order of magnitude between the summer and winter seasons. The difference in sediment temperature may account for most of the calculated variation. The C:N:P ratio, calculated from the pore water nutrient gradients also exhibits a slight seasonal difference. The organic matter being decomposed by sulfate reduction appears to be depleted in depleted in nitrogen, compared to the average marine organic matter.

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Sensitivity Analysis of Sediment Transport Scaling Factors on Cross-Shore Beach Profile Changes using Deflt3D (해빈 단면의 지형변화 모의를 위한 Delft3D 내의 표사이동 관련 매개변수의 민감도 분석)

  • Yang, Jung-A;Son, Sangyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.493-500
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    • 2019
  • In this study, sensitivity analysis of sediment transport scaling factors in Delft3D-Morphology was performed to examine the effect those parameters on simulation results of cross-shore profile changes. For numerical experiments, one-year wave time series data which were observed in 2018 on the Maengbang coast in Gangwon prefecture were applied as external force. Bathymetric data observed in January and October of the same year were used as initial bathymetric data and annual bathymetric change data, respectively. The simulation performance of the model was evaluated based on the Brier Skill Score index for each part by dividing an arbitrary cross section within the calculation domain into the onshore and offshore parts. As a result, it was found thet the fBED variable has a slight effect on the simulation results. The fBEDW and fSUSW variables show good simulation performance in onshore part when the value less than 0.5 is applied and vice versa. Among the experimental conditions, the optimal combinations of variables are fBED = 1.0, fBEDW = 1.0, fSUSW = 0.1 for the onshore region and fBED = 1.0, fBEDW = 1.0, fSUSW = 0.5 for the offshore region. However, since these combinations were derived based on the observation data on Maengbang beach in 2018, users should be careful when applying those results to other areas.

Lateral Earth Pressure Caused by Action on Earth Retaining Wall in Clay Foundation Ground with Consideration of Construction Speed (지중 구조물에 작용하는 측방토압에 대한 성토 재하 속도의 영향)

  • Im Eun-Sang;Lee Kang-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2004
  • When an embankment is constructed on soft clay ground, the lateral displacement generally called as lateral flow is generated in the foundation ground. It strongly affects stabilities of structures, such as foundation piles and underground pipes, in and on the foundation ground. The lateral earth pressure induced by the lateral flow is influenced by the magnitude and construction speed of embankment, the geometric conditions and geotechnical characteristics of the embankment, and the foundation ground, and so on. Accurate methods for estimating the lateral earth pressure have not ever been established because the lateral flow of a foundation ground shows very complicated behavior, which is caused by the interaction of shear deformation and volumetric deformation. In this paper, a series of model tests were carried out in order to clarify effects of construction speed of an embankment on the lateral earth pressure in a foundation ground were design. It was found that the magnitude and the distribution of the lateral earth pressure and its change with time are dependent on the construction speed of the embankment. It was found that a mechanism for the lateral earth pressure was generated by excess pore water pressure due to negative dilatancy induced by shear deformation under the different conditions of construction speeds of embankments.

Development of Designed Formulae for Predicting Ultimate Strength of the Perforated Stiffened Plate subjected to Axial Compressive Loading (압축하중을 받는 유공보강판 구조의 최종강도 설계식 개발)

  • Park, Joo-Shin;Ko, Jae-Yong;Lee, Kyung-Hwan
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.31 no.5 s.121
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    • pp.435-445
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    • 2007
  • Ship structures are thin-walled structures and lots of cutouts, for example, of inner bottom structure, girder, upper deck hatch, floor and dia-frame etc. In the case where a plate has cutout it experiences reduced buckling and ultimate strength and at the same time the in-plane stress under compressive load produced by hull girder bending will be redistributed. In the present paper, we investigated several kinds of perforated stiffened model from actual ship structure and series of elasto-plastic large deflection analyses were performed to investigate into the influence of perforation on the buckling and ultimate strength of the perforated stiffened plate varying the cutout ratio, web height, thickness and type of cross-section by commercial FEA program(ANSYS). Closed-form formulas for predicting the ultimate strength of the perforated stiffened plate are empirically derived by curve fitting based on the Finite Element Analysis results. These formulas are used to evaluate the ultimate strength, which showed good correlation with FEM results. These results will be useful for evaluating the ultimate strength of the perforated stiffened plate in the preliminary design.

The Study on Wound Healing in Rabbit Skins by Low-intensity Laser Irradiation (저강도 레이저 조사에 의한 가토 피부의 상처 치유에 관한 연구)

  • 김식현;전진석
    • Biomedical Science Letters
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2000
  • The skin is an organ that has many important roles, including protection against infection, regulation of temperature and fluid loss, and sensory function. Injury to the skin, wound repair normally involves: (1) balanced activity of inflammation, (2) the re-epithelial phase and (3) the matrix formation of remodeling phase. Thus, skin wound healing is a finely controlled biological process involving a series of complex cellular interactions. Laser therapy is being implemented with increasing frequency in medicine. Low intensity laser is one that is capable of producing an energy density so low that any biologic alterations are the result of direct irradiation effect, not thermal events. This study was designed to evaluate the efficacy of low intensity laser therapy on skin wound healing in rabbits. A total of 10 male rabbits (New Zealand White Rabbit), age 8 weeks were used. Skin wound were surgically created dorso-lateral on the flank of 10 rabbits (2$\times$2 cm/damage areas). The experimental animals were treated with 5Hz (830 nm wave length) low-intensity laser (MILTA-01 Model) daily for 10 min (1.6 J/$cm^2$) for 12 days. Control animals were sham treated with the laser head. Laser irradiation animals showed a complete remodeling of the epithelial layer, a positive repair of connective tissues, and enhanced the wound closure rate over time as compared to the control animals. Especially, laser irradiation groups improved fibroblast activity, cellular content, granulation tissue formation, and collagen deposition which is resulted in improving the tensile strength of the wound. These findings suggest that laser photostimulation could accelerate healing of open wound in rabbits, and may be benefit in the treatment of open wound, including decubitis ulcers.

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Estimation of Potential Supply of Offset from Household Electric Appliances (가정용 전자기기의 잠재 상쇄 공급량 추정)

  • Jin, Hyun Joung;Kim, Jeong In;You, Eun Young;Park, Seo Hwa
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.463-488
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    • 2015
  • A more detailed design of offset system is needed according to the emission trading system started in 2015. This study aims to estimate the supply of potential offset that can be secured by expanding high-efficiency household electric appliances. The target commodities for analysis are three different householding electric appliances: TV, washing machine, electric fan, refrigerator and air conditioner. By using the ARDL model, we estimated the coefficients of diffusion of these high-efficiency appliances from 2016 to 2022. Then, the potential supply of offset was drawn by calculating the amount of electricity saving by efficiency improvement and by applying the rates of carbon exchange. Supposing that the electricity savings rates of high-efficiency appliances are each 10% and 20%, the accumulated carbon decrement in 2022 was respectively $361,899CO_2t$ and $723,797CO_2t$. The appliance that showed the biggest carbon decrement was air conditioner, and the second biggest was refrigerator and the next was TV, followed by washing machine, electric fan.

Current Status of Systems Biology in Traditional Chinese medicine - in regards to influences to Korean Medicine (최근 중의학에서 시스템생물학의 발전 현황 - 한의학에 미치는 영향 및 시사점을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Seungeun;Lee, Sundong
    • Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2017
  • Objectives : This paper serves to explore current trends of systems biology in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and examine how it may influence the Traditional Korean medicine. Methods : Literature review method was collectively used to classify Introduction to systems biology, diagnosis and syndrome classification of systems biology in TCM perspective, physiotherapy including acupuncture, herbs and formula functions, TCM systems biology, and directions of academic development. Results : The term 'Systems biology' is coined as a combination of systems science and biology. It is a field of study that tries to understand living organism by establishing a theory based on an ideal model that analyzes and predicts the desired output with understanding of interrelationships and dynamics between variables. Systems biology has an integrated and multi-dimensional nature that observes the interaction among the elements constructing the network. The current state of systems biology in TCM is categorized into 4 parts: diagnosis and syndrome, physical therapy, herbs and formulas and academic development of TCM systems biology and its technology. Diagnosis and syndrome field is focusing on developing TCM into personalized medicine by clarifying Kidney yin deficiency patterns and metabolic differences among five patterns of diabetes and analyzing plasma metabolism and biomarkers of coronary heart disease patients. In the field of physical therapy such as acupuncture and moxibustion, researchers discovered the effect of stimulating acupoint ST40 on gene expression and the effects of acupuncture on treating functional dyspepsia and acute ischemic stroke. Herbs and formulas were analyzed with TCM network pharmacology. The therapeutic mechanisms of Si Wu Tang and its series formulas are explained by identifying potential active substances, targets and mechanism of action, including metabolic pathways of amino acid and fatty acid. For the academic development of TCM systems biology and its technology, it is necessary to integrate massive database, integrate pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, as well as systems biology. It is also essential to establish a platform to maximize herbal treatment through accumulation of research data and diseases-specific, or drug-specific network combined with clinical experiences, and identify functions and roles of molecules in herbs and conduct animal-based studies within TCM frame. So far, few literature reviews exist for systems biology in traditional Korean medicine and they merely re-examine known efficacies of simple substances, herbs and formulas. For the future, it is necessary to identify specific mechanisms of working agents and targets to maximize the effects of traditional medicine modalities. Conclusions : Systems biology is widely accepted and studied in TCM and already advanced into a field known as 'TCM systems biology', which calls for the study of incorporating TCM and systems biology. It is time for traditional Korean medicine to acknowledge the importance of systems biology and present scientific basis of traditional medicine and establish the principles of diagnosis, prevention and treatment of diseases. By doing so, traditional Korean medicine would be innovated and further developed into a personalized medicine.

Prediction of Salinity Changes for Seawater Inflow and Rainfall Runoff in Yongwon Channel (해수유입과 강우유출 영향에 따른 용원수로의 염분도 변화 예측)

  • Choo, Min Ho;Kim, Young Do;Jeong, Weon Mu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.297-306
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    • 2014
  • In this study, EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model was used to simulate the salinity distribution for sea water inflow and rainfall runoff. The flowrate was given to the boundary conditions, which can be calculated by areal-specific flowrate method from the measured flowrate of the representative outfall. The boundary condition of the water elevation can be obtained from the hourly tidal elevation. The flowrate from the outfall can be calculated using the condition of the 245 mm raifall. The simulation results showed that at Sites 1~2 and the Mangsan island (Site 4) the salinity becomes 0 ppt after the rainfall. However, the salinity is 30 ppt when there is no rainfall. Time series of the salinity changes were compared with the measured data from January 1 to December 31, 2010 at the four sites (Site 2~5) of Yongwon channel. Lower salinities are shown at the inner sites of Yongwon channel (Site 1~4) and the sites of Songjeong river (Site 7~8). The intensive investigation near the Mangsan island showed that the changes of salinity were 21.9~28.8 ppt after the rainfall of 17 mm and those of the salinity were 2.33~8.05 ppt after the cumulative rainfall of 160.5 mm. This means that the sea water circulation is blocked in Yongwon channel, and the salinity becomes lower rapidly after the heavy rain.