• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time series method

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한국 청소년의 약물남용과 비행행위

  • 김성이
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.54-66
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    • 1988
  • I. Introduction Since the 1970's drug abuse among young people has increasingly become a social problem in Korea. In the 1980's, drug abuse, especially glue sniffing, has become the cause of many unfortunated incidents resulting in harm to others as well as the abusers themselves. Taking into consideration of the seriousness of this problem, the Republic of Korea National Red Cross initiated a nation-wide research programme, to understand the present situation and to raise the level of public awareness. The goal of this research was to begin a nation - wide campaign against drug abuse. The research team was composed of the Advisary Committee members and the staff of the Youth Department of the Republic of Korea National Red Cross. The data were collected in February 1988 with the collaboration of the staff and volunteers in the local Chapters. The respondents were allocated nation-wide by the quota sampling method. The questionnaires were distributed to the respondents in three groups :2, 700 to junior and senior high school students, 605 to working youths, and 916 to delinquent youths. A total of 4, 221 questionnaires were collected. II. Characteristics of the Respondents The respondents in each group were selected evenly from rural and urban areas. The general characteristics of the respondents can be described as follow: in case of students, the proportions between male and female respondents, and between senior high school and junior high school students were almost evenly distributed. In case of working youths, the proportion of females (80.5%) was higher than those of the students and the delinquents groups. Delinquent youths were defined as those currently being under custody of the centers for juvenile delinquents. Of this number, 38.8% and 68.2% were junior and senior high school drop-outs respectively. The majority of them (92.6%) were male. As for the family background of the respondents, the proportion of those residing in poverty - stricken areas, and the proportion of those from broken families were higher in case of working youths and delinquent youths than those in case of students. III. Present Patterns of Drug Abuse The following summarizes the presents of drug abuse, as tabulated from the results of the survey. 1. Smoking The percentage of youths who smoke was 36% in the student group, 32% m the working youths group, and 94.4% in the delinquent youths group. 2. Alcohol 50.3% of students, 71.6% of working youths, and 93.3% of delinquent youths has experienced drinking alcohol beverages. 3. Tonic: non - alcoholic, caffeinated beverages popular in Korea and Japan The percentage of those who have used tonic at least once was over 90% in all of the three groups. 4. Sedative About 70% of each group has used sedative with the proportion of working youths use higher than those in other groups. 5. Stimulants Those who have used stimulants comprised around 15% in each group. 6. Tranquilizers Somewhat less than 5% of students and working youths, and 28% of delinquent youths, have used tranquilizers. 7. Hypnotics The users of hypnotics amounted to 0.4% of students, 2.6% of working youths and 7.1% of delinquent youths. 8. Marihuana Those who have used marihuana indicated 0.7% of students, 0.8% of working youths, and 13% of delinquent youths. 9. Glue-sniffing The percentage of glue-sniffing was 3.7%, 5% in the students group and in the youths group respectively, but the proportion was unusually high, at 40.7% in the delinquent youths group. From the results of the survey the present situation of drug abuse in Korea can be summarized as follows: 1. A high percentage of Korean youths have experienced smoking cigarettes and drinking alcoholic beverages. 2. Tonics (non - alcoholic, caffeinated beverages), antipyretic analgesics and stimulants quite regularly used. 3. Tranquilizers, hypnotics, marihuana and glue-sniffing are more widely used among delinquent youths than the other youths. From this fact, there exists a correlation between drug abuse and juvenile delinquency. IV. Time-series Analysis of the First Experience of Drug Abuse and Deviant Behaviour The respoundents were asked when they were first exposed to drugs and when they committed deviant acts. By calculating the average age of each experience, the following pattern was found (See Figure 1). Youths are first exposed to drugs by abuse of tonic(non - alcoholic, caffeinated beverages). At the age of 13, they amoke cigarettes, the use of antipyretic analgesics begins at 14 year old, while at the age of 15, they use tranquilizers, and at 16 hynotics. The period of drug abuse which starts from drinking caffeinated beverages and smoking cigarettes and ends in the use of hypnotics takes about three years. During this period, other delinquent behaviours begin to surface, that is, at the age of 13 when smoking cigarettes begins, the delinquent behaviour pattern starts with truancy. Next, they start taking money from others by using physical force. Prior to the age of 15, they are suspended from school, become hostile to adults, begin running away from home, and start using stimulants and alcohol. Soon they become involved even in glue-sniffing and in the use of marihuana. At the age of 15, they begin to see adult videos and carry weapons. Sexual promiscuity and usage of tranquilizers follows the viewing of adult videos. Consequently, by the time they reach the age of 16, they visit drinking establishments, and are picked up by police for committing delinquent acts. And finally, they come to use hypnotic - type drugs. From the above descriptions, drug abuse can be assumed to have a close correlation with delinquent behaviour. V. Social Factors Related to Drug Abuse As for the Korean youths, glue-sniffing is found to he related to aggressive delinquency, in such cases as run - aways, being picked up by the police, and taking money by force. Smoking cigarettes and drinking alcohol is found to be related to seeing adult videos and visiting drinking establishments. Hypnotics and marihuana were found to be representive of drugs which are related to degenerational delinquency, irrespective of social delinquency. The social factors connected with these drug abuse are as follows: 1. Individual factors Male students were more heavily involved in the usage of drug than females. Youths who do not attend church were more likely to be involved in drugs than those who attend. 2. Family factors The youths who were displeased with their mothers smoking and those who thought their parents did not love each other, or those whose parents had used drugs without prescription, were more likely to he drug users. 3. School factors Those youths who found school life boring, were unsuccessful in their studies, spend most of their time with friends, feel their teachers smoke too much, those who had a positive perception of their teachers smoking were likely to he drug users. To sum up, drug abusers depend on the influence of their parents, teachers and peers. IV. Reasons for Drug Abuse Korean students have mainly used drugs to release stress (42.8%), to stay awake (19.7%), and because of the easy accessibility of drugs( 16.6%). Other reasons are due to their ignorance of the side effects of the drugs (3.6%), natural curiosity (4.2%), and to increase strength(3.O%). From the above facts, the major reasons for drug abuse among Korean youths are to release stress and to stay awake in order to prepare exams. Furthermore, since drugs are readily available, we can conclude that drug abuse is caused by the school system(such as entrance exams) in Korea. VII. Conclusion Drug usage among Korean youths are relatively less common than those of western youths. In some cases, such as, glue-sniffing and use of stimulants, the pattern of drug abuse is found. Moreover, early drug abuse is evident, and it has a close connection with deviant behaviour, resulting in juvenile delinquency. Drug abuse cannot be attributed to any one social factor. Specifically, drug abuse depends on parents, peers, teachers and other members of the community, and also is influenced by social institutions such as the entrance exam system. Every person and organization concerned with youth must participate collectively in restraining drug abuse. Finally, it is suggested that social agencial working for youth welfare should make every effort to tackle this serious problem confronted by the Korean youths today.

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A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

Effect of Geijibokryunghwan and each constituent herb on inhibition of platelet aggregation (계지복령환(桂枝茯笭丸) 및 그 구성약물(構成藥物)의 혈소판응집억제(血小板凝集抑制)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Jong-Goo;Park, Sun-Dong;Park, Won-Hwan
    • The Journal of Dong Guk Oriental Medicine
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2000
  • The cause that the increase of animality fat intakes, under exercise, fatness, adding the stress, advanced age etc., the occurrence rate of the circulation system disease has been increased. And the thrombosis importantly came to the front as the risk factor of these circulation system's disease. Nowadays, the ischemic disease has especially discussed, for example the angina or myocardial infarction, originated in thrombosis that came from the platelet aggregation. In the western medicine, as the cure and prevention, using the aspirin or ticlopidine for platelet aggregation suppressant. But in the , the curing method must be used properly according to the pectoralgia or heartache's kind, state, grade. The platelet do not attache to the normal hemangioendothelial cell. But when it stimulated by endothelium peronia and so on, it attache to the injury endothelium or rise aggregation between the platelet. On this time, it secrete the platelet aggregation inducer as like ADP, thromboxane A2 from the inside of platelet. So it has first defensive function through the aggregation augment that prevent the celerity consumption of blood. But the activation of abnormal platelet occur the platelet grume and thrombogenesis. So it bring up the occlusive angiosis, so to speak, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, arterial sclerosis. In oriental medicine, the thrombosis in the category of blood stasis and this blood stasis present the generalise or local blood circulation disturbance that generated by all kinds of pathological fact or blood stream retention accompanying with a series of syndrome. As the syndrome, stabbing pain fixed at certain region, squamous and dry skin, fullness and pain of the chest and hypochondrium, firmness and fullness of the lower abdomen, black stool, dark purple tongue or with ecchymoses and petechiae etc.. has been created. And it becomes the pathopoiesis cause that the convulsion and palpitation, severe palpitatiion, tympanites, the symtom complex with a mass or swelling in the abdomen, insanity, stricken by wind etc.. Moreover, it used the drugs for invigorating blood circulation and eliminating blood stasis or drugs for removing blood stasis for all kinds of syndrome through the blood stasis. And the drugs for activating the blood circulation, such as Salviae Radix, Angelicae Sinensis Radix, Persicae Semen, Achyranthis Radix, Cnidii Rhizoma, Carthami Flos are used for that. And it is used to the herbs of insects that has strong effect about the disintergrating blood stasis such as Hirudo, Scolopendrae Corpus, Buthus, Lumbricus etc.. On this study, It used Geijibokryunghwan(GBH) and the consisting herbs to investigate the influence of platelet aggregation about drugs that used to improvement various symptoms created by the thrombosis in oriental medicine. GBH formula has as formula recorded in the , action of 'eleminating the evil and not impairment of healthy energy' and 'promoting the flow of QI and cold and heat, so used for the expel blood stasis herbs from the ancient. Therefore we investigated the restraint effect of GBH and the consisting herbs about the platelet agregation induced to the ADP, AA or collagen. The conclusion is following. 1. When it added the aggregation inducer after that it added GBH and individual consisting herbs in the PRP, GBH showed the (+) inhibition effect on the platelet aggregation and it showed the (+) inhibition effect in the individual consisting herbs as like Paeoniae Radix and Moutan Cortex Radicis. 2. It showed the (+), (+,++) inhibition effect on the platelet aggregation in Paeoniae Radix Hoelen, Paeoniae Radix Moutan Cortex Radicis, Hoelen Moutan Cortex Radicis etc. 3. In the aggregation inhibition activating on the difference of density, GBH showed strong inhibition effect to the aggregation state induced to collagen, and it showed the inhibition effect in the individual consisting herbs as like Paeoniae Radix and Moutan Cortex Radicis about the aggregation induced by the collagen. 4. It showed the strong inhibition effect about the aggregation induced by the collagen in Paeoniae Radix Hoelen, Paeoniae Radix Moutan Cortex Radicis, Hoelen Moutan Cortex Radicis etc Like this, as confirm GBH and the individual consisting herb's inhibition effect of platelet aggregation, We considerated that GBH and the individual consisting herbs have practical applicational value of clinical trial in the thrombosis caused by platelet aggregation.

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Trend of Medical Care Utilization and Medical Expenditure of the Elderly Cohort (노인 코호트의 의료이용 및 입원진료비 변화 추이 -공.교 의료보험 대상자를 대상으로-)

  • Lee, Kyeong-Soo;Kang, Pock-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.2 s.57
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    • pp.437-461
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    • 1997
  • Because of a significant improvement in the economic situation and development of scientific techniques in Korea during the last 30 years, the life expectancy of the Korean people has lengthened considerably and as a result, the number of the elderly has markedly increased. Such an increase of the number of aged population brought about many social, economic, and medical problems which were never seriously considered before. This study was conducted to assess the trend of medical care utilization and medical expenditure of the elderly. The data of each patient in the study were taken from computer database maintained for administrative purpose by the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation. The study population was 132,670 who were 60 years old or more and registered in Korean Medical Insurance Corporation from 1989 to 1993. The study subjects were predominantly female(56.3%) and 10,000-20,000 Won premium group(50.6%). The following are summaries of findings : The total increase of the number of inpatient cases was 40.5% from 1989 through 1993. The average annual increase was 3.7% in inpatient medical expenditures per case, 4.4% in inpatient medical expenditures per day and 0.08% in length of stay per case from 1989 through 1993. Cataract was the most prevalent disease of 10 leading frequent diseases in all ages from 1989 through 1993. The case mix in 1993 compared to 1989 revealed that cataract and ischemic cerebral disease were increased whereas essential hypertension and pulmonary tuberculosis were decreased . The average annual increase of medical expenditures was 3.8% in general hospitals, 6.3% in hospitals and 2.4% in clinics. From 1989 through 1993, medical expenditures used by high-cost patients accounted for about 14% to 20% of all expenditures for inpatient care, while they represented less than 2.5% of the elderly population. Time series analysis revealed that total medical expenditures and doctor's fee for inpatient will be progressively increased whereas drug expenditures for inpatient will be decreased. And there will be no change in length of stay. Based on the above results, the factors increasing medical cost and utilization should be identified and the method of cost containment for the elderly health care should be developed systematically.

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A Study on the Meaning and Cultural Properties Value of Rock-Go-Board from the Viewpoint of Site and Location Characteristics (입지와 장소 특성으로 본 암각바둑판의 의미와 문화재적 가치)

  • Park, Joo Sung;Rho, Jae Hyun;Sim, Woo Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.172-205
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    • 2011
  • Go bears significant meanings in terms of cultural and entertaining functions in Asia Eastern such as China and Japan. Beyond the mere entertaining level, it produces philosophical and mythic discourse as well. As a part of effort to seek an identity of Korean traditional garden culture, this study traced back to find meanings of rock-go-board and taste for the arts which ancestors pursued in playing Go game, through analysis and interpretation of correlation among origin of place name, nearby scenery, carved letters and vicinal handed-down place name. At the same time, their position, shape and location types were interpreted through comprehensive research and analysis of stone-go-boards including rock-go-board. Particularly, it focused on the rock names related to Sundoism(仙道) Ideal world, fixed due to a connection between traces of Sundoism and places in a folk etymology. Series of this work is to highlight features of the immortal sceneries, one of traditional landscaping ideals, by understanding place identity and scenic features of where the rock-go-boards are carved. These works are expected to become foundation for promotion and preservation of the traditional landscaping remains. The contents of this study could be summarized as follows; First, round stone and square board for round sky and angled land, black and white color for harmony of yin and yang and 361paths for rotating sky are symbols projecting order of universe. Sayings of Gyuljungjirak(橘中之樂), Sangsansaho(商山四皓), Nangagosa(爛柯故事) formed based on the idea of eternity stand for union of sky and sun. It indicates Go game which matches life and nature spatiotemporally and elegant taste for arts pursuing beauty and leisure. Second, the stone-go-boards found through this research, are 18 in total. 3 of those(16.1%), Gangjin Weolnamsaji, Yangsan Sohanjeong and Banryongdae ones were classified into movable Seokguk and 15(83.9%) including Banghakdong were turned out to be non-movable rock-go-boards carved on natural rocks. Third, upon the result of materializing location types of rock-go-boards, 15 are mountain stream type(83.9%) and 3 are rock peak type(16.1%). Among those, the one at Sobaeksam Sinseonbong is located at the highest place(1,389m). Considering the fact that all of 15 rock-go-boards were found at mountainous areas lower than 500m, it is recognizable that where the Go-boards are the parts of the living space, not far from secular world. Fourth, there are 7 Sunjang(巡將) Go with 17 Hwajeoms(花點), which is a traditional Go board type, but their existences, numbers and shapes of Hwajeom appear variously. Based on the fact, it is recognizable that culture of making go-board had been handed down for an extended period of time. Among the studied rock-goboards, the biggest one was Muju Sasunam[$80(82)cm{\times}80(82)cm$] while the smallest one was Yangsan Sohandjeong Seokguk ($40cm{\times}40cm$). The dimension of length and breadth are both $49cm{\times}48cm$ on average, which is realistic size for actual Go play. Fifth, the biggest bed rock, an under-masonry with carved Go-board on it, was one in Muju Sasunam[$8.7m{\times}7.5m(65.25m^2)$], followed by ones in Hoengseong Chuiseok[$7.8m{\times}6.3m(49.14m^2$] and Goisan Sungukam[$6.7m{\times}5.7m(37.14m^2)$]. Meanwhile, the smallest rock-go-board was turned out to be one in Seoul Banghak-dong. There was no consistency in directions of the Go-boards, which gives a hint that geographical features and sceneries of locations were considered first and then these were carved toward an optimal direction corresponding to the conditions. Sixth, rock-go-boards were all located in valleys and peaks of mountains with breathtaking scenery. It seems closely related to ancestors' taste for arts. Particularly, rock-go-boards are apprehended as facilities related to taste for arts for having leisure in many mountains and big streams under the idea of union of sky and human as a primitive communal line. Go became a medium of hermits, which is a traditional image of Go-game, and symbol of amusement and entertainment with the idea that Go is an essence of scholar culture enabling to reach the Tao of turning back to nature. Seventh, the further ancient time going back to, the more dreamlike the Go-boards are. It is an evident for that Sundoism, which used to be unacceptable once, became more visible and realistic. Considering the high relation between rock-go-boards and Sundoism relevant names such as Sundoism peak in Danyang Sobaeksan, 4 hermits rock in Muju and Sundoism hermit rock in Jangsu, Sundoism hermit rocks and rock-go-boards are sceneries and observation spots to express a communication of worship and longing for Sundoism. Eighth, 3 elements-physical environment such as location type of the rock-go-boards, human activities concentrated on 8 sceneries and Dongcheongugok(洞天九曲) setup and relevancy to Confucian scholars, as well as 'Sangsansaho' motif and 'Nangagosa' symbolic meaning were used as interpretation tools in order to judge the place identity. Upon the result, spatial investigation is required with respect to Sunyoodongcheon(仙遊洞天) concept based on enjoyment to unify with the nature rather than Dongcheongugok concept of neo-Confucian, for Dongcheon and Dongmoon(洞門) motives carved around the rock-go-boards. Generally, places where mountain stream type rock-go-boards were formed were hermit spaces of Confucianism or Sundoism. They are considered to have compromised one other with the change of times. Particularly, in the rock-go-board at the mountain peak, sublimity-oriented advent of Sundoism is considered as a significant factor to control place identity. Ninth, including where the rock-go-boards were established, the vicinal areas are well-known as parts of Dongcheongugok and Palkyung(八景) mostly. In addition, many of Sundoism relevant expressions were discovered even in the neighboring carvings written by scholars and nobility, which means sophisticated taste based on longing for Sundoism world played a significant role in making go-board. The rock-go-board is an integration of cultural phenomena naturally managed by seclusion of scholars in the Joseon Dynasty as well as remains and essence of Korean traditional landscaping. Some rock-go-boards out of 17 discovered in South Korea, including ones in Sobaeksan Sinsunbong, Banghak-dong, Chungju Gongili, Muju Sasunam, Yangsan Eogokdong Banryongdae Seokguk, are damaged such as cracks in rocks or fainted lines by hardships of time and hand stains. Worse yet, in case of Eunyang Bangudae Jipcheongjeong board, it is very difficult to identify the shape due to being buried. Rock-go-boards are valuable sculptures in terms of cultural asset and artwork since they reflect ancestors' love for nature and longing for Sundoism world. Therefore, they should be maintained properly with right preservation method. Not only rock-boards itself but also peripheral places are excellent cultural heritages and crucial cultural assets. In addition, vicinal sceneries of where rock-goboards and pavilion spots are the representative remains of embracing prototype of Korean traditional landscaping and major parts of cultural properties.