• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time series data

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Spatio-temporal enhancement of forest fire risk index using weather forecast and satellite data in South Korea (기상 예보 및 위성 자료를 이용한 우리나라 산불위험지수의 시공간적 고도화)

  • KANG, Yoo-Jin;PARK, Su-min;JANG, Eun-na;IM, Jung-ho;KWON, Chun-Geun;LEE, Suk-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.116-130
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    • 2019
  • In South Korea, forest fire occurrences are increasing in size and duration due to various factors such as the increase in fuel materials and frequent drying conditions in forests. Therefore, it is necessary to minimize the damage caused by forest fires by appropriately providing the probability of forest fire risk. The purpose of this study is to improve the Daily Weather Index(DWI) provided by the current forest fire forecasting system in South Korea. A new Fire Risk Index(FRI) is proposed in this study, which is provided in a 5km grid through the synergistic use of numerical weather forecast data, satellite-based drought indices, and forest fire-prone areas. The FRI is calculated based on the product of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code(FFMC) optimized for Korea, an integrated drought index, and spatio-temporal weighting approaches. In order to improve the temporal accuracy of forest fire risk, monthly weights were applied based on the forest fire occurrences by month. Similarly, spatial weights were applied using the forest fire density information to improve the spatial accuracy of forest fire risk. In the time series analysis of the number of monthly forest fires and the FRI, the relationship between the two were well simulated. In addition, it was possible to provide more spatially detailed information on forest fire risk when using FRI in the 5km grid than DWI based on administrative units. The research findings from this study can help make appropriate decisions before and after forest fire occurrences.

Forecasting Hourly Demand of City Gas in Korea (국내 도시가스의 시간대별 수요 예측)

  • Han, Jung-Hee;Lee, Geun-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.87-95
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    • 2016
  • This study examined the characteristics of the hourly demand of city gas in Korea and proposed multiple regression models to obtain precise estimates of the hourly demand of city gas. Forecasting the hourly demand of city gas with accuracy is essential in terms of safety and cost. If underestimated, the pipeline pressure needs to be increased sharply to meet the demand, when safety matters. In the opposite case, unnecessary inventory and operation costs are incurred. Data analysis showed that the hourly demand of city gas has a very high autocorrelation and that the 24-hour demand pattern of a day follows the previous 24-hour demand pattern of the same day. That is, there is a weekly cycle pattern. In addition, some conditions that temperature affects the hourly demand level were found. That is, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the hourly demand and temperature is about 0.853 on average, while the absolute value of the correlation coefficient on a specific day improves to 0.861 at worst and 0.965 at best. Based on this analysis, this paper proposes a multiple regression model incorporating the hourly demand ahead of 24 hours and the hourly demand ahead of 168 hours, and another multiple regression model with temperature as an additional independent variable. To show the performance of the proposed models, computational experiments were carried out using real data of the domestic city gas demand from 2009 to 2013. The test results showed that the first regression model exhibits a forecasting accuracy of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) around 4.5% over the past five years from 2009 to 2013, while the second regression model exhibits 5.13% of MAPE for the same period.

The Impact of SSM Market Entry on Changes in Market Shares among Retailing Types (기업형 슈퍼마켓(SSM)의 시장진입이 소매업태간 시장점유율 변화에 미친 영향)

  • Choi, Ji-Ho;Yonn, Min-Suk;Moon, Youn-Hee;Choi, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.115-132
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    • 2012
  • This study empirically examines the impact of SSM market entry on changes in market shares among retailing types. The data is monthly time-series data spanning over the period from January 2000 to December 2010, and the effect of SSM market entry on market shares of retailing types is analyzed by utilizing several key factors such as the number of new SSM monthly entrants, total number of SSMs, the proportion of new SSM entrant that is smaller than $165m^2$ to total new SSM entrants. According to the Korean Standard Industrial Classification codes, the retailing type is classified into 5 groups: department stores, retail sale in other non-specialized large stores(big marts), supermarkets, convenience stores, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating (others). The market shares of retailing types are calculated by the ratio of each retailing type monthly sales to total monthly retailing sales in which total retailing sales is the sum of each retailing type sales. The empirical model controls for the size effects with the number of monthly employees for each retailing type and the macroeconomic effects with M2. The empirical model employed in this study is as follows; $$MS_i=f(NewSSM,\;CumSSM,\;employ_i,\;under165,\;M2)$$ where $MS_i$ is the market share of each retailing type (department stores, big marts), supermarkets, convenience stores, and others), NewSSM is the number of new SSM monthly entrants, CumSSM is total number of SSMs, $employ_i$ is the number of monthly employees for each retailing type, and under165 is the proportion of new SSM entrant that is smaller than $165m^2$ to total new SSM entrants. The correlation among these variables are reported in

    .
    shows the descriptive statistics of the sample. Sales is the total monthly revenue of each retailing type, employees is total number of monthly employees for each retailing type, area is total floor space of each retail type($m^2$), number of store is total number of monthly stores for each retailing type, market share is the ratio of each retailing type monthly sales to total monthly retailing sales in which total retailing sales is the sum of each retailing type sales, new monthly SSMs is total number of new monthly SSM entrants, and M2 is a money supply. The empirical results of the effect of new SSM market entry on changes in market shares among retailing types (department stores, retail sale in other non-specialized large stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating) are reported in
    . The dependant variables are the market share of department stores, the market share of big marts, the market share of supermarkets, the market share of convenience stores, and the market share of others. The result shows that the impact of new SSM market entry on changes in market share of retail sale in other non-specialized large stores (big marts) is statistically significant. Total number of monthly SSM stores has a significant effect on market share, but the magnitude and sign of effect is different among retailing types. The increase in the number of SSM stores has a negative effect on the market share of retail sale in other non-specialized large stores(big marts) and convenience stores, but has a positive impact on the market share of department stores, supermarkets, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating (others). This study offers the theoretical and practical implication to these findings and also suggests the direction for the further analysis.

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  • Construction and estimation of soil moisture site with FDR and COSMIC-ray (SM-FC) sensors for calibration/validation of satellite-based and COSMIC-ray soil moisture products in Sungkyunkwan university, South Korea (위성 토양수분 데이터 및 COSMIC-ray 데이터 보정/검증을 위한 성균관대학교 내 FDR 센서 토양수분 측정 연구(SM-FC) 및 데이터 분석)

    • Kim, Hyunglok;Sunwoo, Wooyeon;Kim, Seongkyun;Choi, Minha
      • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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      • v.49 no.2
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      • pp.133-144
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      • 2016
    • In this study, Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) and COSMIC-ray soil moisture (SM) stations were installed at Sungkyunkwan University in Suwon, South Korea. To provide reliable information about SM, soil property test, time series analysis of measured soil moisture, and comparison of measured SM with satellite-based SM product are conducted. In 2014, six FDR stations were set up for obtaining SM. Each of the stations had four FDR sensors with soil depth from 5 cm to 40 cm at 5~10 cm different intervals. The result showed that study region had heterogeneous soil layer properties such as sand and loamy sand. The measured SM data showed strong coupling with precipitation. Furthermore, they had a high correlation coefficient and a low root mean square deviation (RMSD) as compared to the satellite-based SM products. After verifying the accuracy of the data in 2014, four FDR stations and one COSMIC-ray station were additionally installed to establish the Soil Moisture site with FDR and COSMIC-ray, called SM-FC. COSMIC-ray-based SM had a high correlation coefficient of 0.95 compared with mean SM of FDR stations. From these results, the SM-FC will give a valuable insight for researchers into investigate satellite- and model-based SM validation study in South Korea.

    Factor Analysis Affecting on Changes in Handysize Freight Index and Spot Trip Charterage (핸디사이즈 운임지수 및 스팟용선료 변화에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

    • Lee, Choong-Ho;Kim, Tae-Woo;Park, Keun-Sik
      • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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      • v.37 no.2
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      • pp.73-89
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      • 2021
    • The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.

    Change Detection for High-resolution Satellite Images Using Transfer Learning and Deep Learning Network (전이학습과 딥러닝 네트워크를 활용한 고해상도 위성영상의 변화탐지)

    • Song, Ah Ram;Choi, Jae Wan;Kim, Yong Il
      • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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      • v.37 no.3
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      • pp.199-208
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      • 2019
    • As the number of available satellites increases and technology advances, image information outputs are becoming increasingly diverse and a large amount of data is accumulating. In this study, we propose a change detection method for high-resolution satellite images that uses transfer learning and a deep learning network to overcome the limit caused by insufficient training data via the use of pre-trained information. The deep learning network used in this study comprises convolutional layers to extract the spatial and spectral information and convolutional long-short term memory layers to analyze the time series information. To use the learned information, the two initial convolutional layers of the change detection network are designed to use learned values from 40,000 patches of the ISPRS (International Society for Photogrammertry and Remote Sensing) dataset as initial values. In addition, 2D (2-Dimensional) and 3D (3-dimensional) kernels were used to find the optimized structure for the high-resolution satellite images. The experimental results for the KOMPSAT-3A (KOrean Multi-Purpose SATllite-3A) satellite images show that this change detection method can effectively extract changed/unchanged pixels but is less sensitive to changes due to shadow and relief displacements. In addition, the change detection accuracy of two sites was improved by using 3D kernels. This is because a 3D kernel can consider not only the spatial information but also the spectral information. This study indicates that we can effectively detect changes in high-resolution satellite images using the constructed image information and deep learning network. In future work, a pre-trained change detection network will be applied to newly obtained images to extend the scope of the application.

    A Study for establishment of soil moisture station in mountain terrain (1): the representative analysis of soil moisture for construction of Cosmic-ray verification system (산악 지형에서의 토양수분 관측소 구축을 위한 연구(1): Cosmic-ray 검증시스템 구축을 위한 토양수분량 대표성 분석 연구)

    • Kim, Kiyoung;Jung, Sungwon;Lee, Yeongil
      • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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      • v.52 no.1
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      • pp.51-60
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      • 2019
    • The major purpose of this study is to construct an in-situ soil moisture verification network employing Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) sensors for Cosmic-ray soil moisture observation system operation as well as long-term field-scale soil moisture monitoring. The test bed of Cosmic-ray and FDR verification network system was established at the Sulma Catchment, in connection with the existing instrumentations for integrated data provision of various hydrologic variables. This test bed includes one Cosmic-ray Neutron Probe (CRNP) and ten FDR stations with four different measurement depths (10 cm, 20 cm, 30 cm, and 40 cm) at each station, and has been operating since July 2018. Furthermore, to assess the reliability of the in-situ verification network, the volumetric water content data measured by FDR sensors were compared to those calculated through the core sampling method. The evaluation results of FDR sensors- measured soil moisture against sampling method during the study period indicated a reasonable agreement, with average values of $bias=-0.03m^3/m^3$ and RMSE $0.03m^3/m^3$, revealing that this FDR network is adequate to provide long-term reliable field-scale soil moisture monitoring at Sulmacheon basin. In addition, soil moisture time series observed at all FDR stations during the study period generally respond well to the rainfall events; and at some locations, the characteristics of rainfall water intercepted by canopy were also identified. The Temporal Stability Analysis (TSA) was performed for all FDR stations located within the CRNP footprint at each measurement depth to determine the representative locations for field-average soil moisture at different soil profiles of the verification network. The TSA results showed that superior performances were obtained at FDR 5 for 10 cm depth, FDR 8 for 20 cm depth, FDR2 for 30 cm depth, and FDR1 for 40 cm depth, respectively; demonstrating that those aforementioned stations can be regarded as temporal stable locations to represent field mean soil moisture measurements at their corresponding measurement depths. Although the limit on study duration has been presented, the analysis results of this study can provide useful knowledge on soil moisture variability and stability at the test bed, as well as supporting the utilization of the Cosmic-ray observation system for long-term field-scale soil moisture monitoring.

    A Study on the Change of Road in the Changdeokgung Palace Rear Garden between Modern and Contemporary Period (근현대기 창덕궁 후원의 동선 변화에 관한 연구)

    • HA, Taeil;KIM, Choongsik
      • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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      • v.54 no.2
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      • pp.120-135
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      • 2021
    • Changdeokgung Rear Garden is an important place to show the essence of the garden culture of the Joseon Dynasty. In the garden landscape experience, the restoration of the road completes the system of connecting the main spaces. Therefore, the restoration of the road requires accurate understanding of its creation, extinction, and maintenance. The purpose of this study was to detail the changes in the path that occurred in the Changdeokgung Palace Rear Garden from the late Joseon Dynasty to the modern and contemporary period by analyzing literature and drawing materials. For a time-series analysis, "Donggwoldo" and "Donggwoldohyeong" produced in the Joseon Dynasty, along with "Changdeokgung Plan Drawing" produced in modern and contemporary times, and aerial photographs were used. Drawings and photographs of different coordinate systems were transformed into one coordinate system in the geographic information system ArcGIS to compare changes in the movements of different periods. The results of the study are as follows. First, a total of 37 sections have been used since Japanese colonial era, of which 13 have been maintained, 14 have disappeared, and 10 have been newly established. Among the extinction sections, the road north of Neungheojeong Pavilion is considered to be an urgent place to connect the space to the garden and restore it to enjoy the scenery. In the new section, it seems necessary to establish a new alternative road or shorten the section for the connecting section between Daebodan and Okryucheon. Second, it was revealed that the biggest and most frequent changes to the road system in the garden were Japanese colonial era and renovations in the 1970s. It is worth noting the changes in the road since the 1970s, rather than Japanese colonial era, where it was difficult to manage the gardens independently. The access road to Okryucheon remained in its original shape until the 1990s, but it was renovated to its current shape due to misperception of the original shape. A project is needed to find out the cause of the change in this period and restore the damaged original shape. The biggest achievement of this study is that it revealed the changes in the garden path of Changdeokgung Palace in modern and contemporary times. The biggest achievement of this study is that it revealed the changes in the road of Changdeokgung Palace Rear Gardens in modern and contemporary times. However, there is a limitation that it has not been able to clearly present the location and shape that should be restored because it has not found data on landscaping plans or maintenance. In order to restore the road using the data revealed in this study, it seems necessary to consider realistic problems such as current space utilization, viewing system, disaster prevention and maintenance.

    A Study on the Measurement of Startup and Venture Ecosystem Index (창업·벤처 생태계 측정에 관한 연구)

    • Kim, Sunwoo;Jin, Wooseok;Kwak, Kihyun;Ko, Hyuk-Jin
      • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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      • v.16 no.6
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      • pp.31-42
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      • 2021
    • The importance of startups and ventures in the Korean economy is growing. This study measured whether the start-up and venture ecosystem is growing, including the growth of startups and ventures. The startup and venture ecosystem consists of startups and ventures, investors, and government, which are the main actors of the 'ecosystem', and their movements were measured with 25 quantitative indicators. Based on the original data of the time series from 2010 to 2020, the startup and venture ecosystem index was calculated by applying weights through the comprehensive stock index method and AHP. In 2020, the startup and venture ecosystem grew 2.9 times compared to 2010, and the increase in the government index had a significant impact on growth. Also, the individual indicators that make up each index in 2020, the corporate index had the greatest impact on the growth of the number of 100-billion ventures, while the investment index had a recovery amount and the government index had a significant impact. Based on the original data, the startup and venture ecosystem index was analyzed by dividing it into ecosystems (startup ecosystem and venture ecosystem), industry by industry (all industries and manufacturing industry), and region (Korea and Busan). As a result, the growth of the startup ecosystem over the past decade has been slightly larger than that of the venture ecosystem. The manufacturing was lower than that of all industries, and Busan was lower than that of the nation. This study was intended to use it for the establishment and implementation of support policies by developing, measuring, and monitoring the startup and venture ecosystem index. This index has the advantage of being able to research the interrelationships between major actors, and anyone can calculate the index using the results of official statistical surveys. In the future, it is necessary to continuously update this content to understand how economic and social events or policy support have affected the startup and venture ecosystem.

    Dynamic Equilibrium Position Prediction Model for the Confluence Area of Nakdong River (낙동강 합류부 삼각주의 동적 평형 위치 예측 모델: 감천-낙동강 합류점 중심 분석 연구)

    • Minsik Kim;Haein Shin;Wook-Hyun Nahm;Wonsuck Kim
      • Economic and Environmental Geology
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      • v.56 no.4
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      • pp.435-445
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      • 2023
    • A delta is a depositional landform that is formed when sediment transported by a river is deposited in a relatively low-energy environment, such as a lake, sea, or a main channel. Among these, a delta formed at the confluence of rivers has a great importance in river management and research because it has a significant impact on the hydraulic and sedimentological characteristics of the river. Recently, the equilibrium state of the confluence area has been disrupted by large-scale dredging and construction of levees in the Nakdong River. However, due to the natural recovery of the river, the confluence area is returning to its pre-dredging natural state through ongoing sedimentation. The time-series data show that the confluence delta has been steadily growing since the dredging, but once it reaches a certain size, it repeats growth and retreat, and the overall size does not change significantly. In this study, we developed a model to explain the sedimentation-erosion processes in the confluence area based on the assumption that the confluence delta reaches a dynamic equilibrium. The model is based on two fundamental principles: sedimentation due to supply from the tributary and erosion due to the main channel. The erosion coefficient that represents the Nakdong River confluence areas, was obtained using data from the tributaries of the Nakdong River. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the developed model to understand how the confluence delta responds to changes in the sediment and water discharges of the tributary and the main channel, respectively. We then used annual average discharge of the Nakdong River's tributaries to predict the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas. Finally, we conducted a simulation experiment on the development of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta using recorded daily discharge. The results showed that even though it is a simple model, it accurately predicted the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas in the Nakdong River, including the areas where the delta had not formed, and those where the delta had already formed and predicted the trend of the response of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta. However, the actual retreat in the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta was not captured fully due to errors and limitations in the simplification process. The insights through this study provide basic information on the sediment supply of the Nakdong River through the confluence areas, which can be implemented as a basic model for river maintenance and management.


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