• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time prediction

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Application of the JMA instrumental intensity in Korea (일본 기상청 계측진도의 국내 활용)

  • Kim, Hye-Lim;Kim, Sung-Kyun;Choi, Kang-Ryong
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2010
  • In general, the seismic intensity deduced from instrumental data has been evaluated from the empirical relation between the intensity and the PGA. From the point of view that the degree of earthquake damage is more closely associated with the seismic intensity than with the observed PGA, JMA developed the instrumental seismic intensity (JMA instrumental intensity) meter that estimate the real-time seismic intensity from the observed strong motion data to obtain a more correct estimate of earthquake damage. The purpose of the present study is to propose a practical application of the JMA instrumental intensity in Korea. Since the occurrence of strong earthquakes is scarce in the Korean Peninsula, there is an insufficiency of strong motion data. As a result, strong motion data were synthesized by a stochastic procedure to satisfy the characteristics of a seismic source and crustal attenuation of the Peninsula. Six engineering ground motion parameters, including the JMA instrumental intensity, were determined from the synthesized strong motion data. The empirical relations between the ground motion parameters were then analyzed. Cluster analysis to classify the parameters into groups was also performed. The result showed that the JMA acceleration ($a_0$) could be classified into similar group with the spectrum intensity and the relatively distant group with the CAV (Cumulative Absolute Velocity). It is thought that the $a_0$ or JMA intensity can be used as an alternative criterion in the evaluation of seismic damage. On the other hand, attenuation relation equations for PGA and $a_0$ to be used in the prediction of seismic hazard were derived as functions of the moment magnitude and hypocentral distance.

Feature Extraction for Bearing Prognostics based on Frequency Energy (베어링 잔존 수명 예측을 위한 주파수 에너지 기반 특징신호 추출)

  • Kim, Seokgoo;Choi, Joo-Ho;An, Dawn
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.128-139
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    • 2017
  • Railway is one of the public transportation systems along with shipping and aviation. With the recent introduction of high speed train, its proportion is increasing rapidly, which results in the higher risk of catastrophic failures. The wheel bearing to support the train is one of the important components requiring higher reliability and safety in this aspect. Recently, many studies have been made under the name of prognostics and health management (PHM), for the purpose of fault diagnosis and failure prognosis of the bearing under operation. Among them, the most important step is to extract a feature that represents the fault status properly and is useful for accurate remaining life prediction. However, the conventional features have shown some limitations that make them less useful since they fluctuate over time even after the signal de-noising or do not show a distinct pattern of degradation which lack the monotonic trend over the cycles. In this study, a new method for feature extraction is proposed based on the observation of relative frequency energy shifting over the cycles, which is then converted into the feature using the information entropy. In order to demonstrate the method, traditional and new features are generated and compared using the bearing data named FEMTO which was provided by the FEMTO-ST institute for IEEE 2012 PHM Data Challenge competition.

Prediction of Water-Quality Enhancement Effects of Gates Operation in the West-Nakdong River Using RMA2/RMA4 Models (RMA2/RMA4 모형을 이용한 서낙동간 수문연계운영의 수질개선 효과 예측)

  • Lee, Keum-Chan;Yoon, Young-Sam;Lee, Nam-Joo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.971-981
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    • 2009
  • An objective of this study is as follows: 1) performing sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of RMA2 and RMA4 models for the West-Nakdong River, 2) drawing up alternatives of gates-operation for water-quality enhancement, and 3) quantitative evaluation of methodology of 'flow-restoration by gates-operation' among 'Comprehensive Plan Improving Water-Quality in the West-Nakdong River(WNR)' with the target water-quality(BOD at Nakbon-N point: below 4.3 mg/L). The parameters for the RMA2 (depth-averaged two-dimensional flow model) and RMA4 (depth-averaged two-dimensional water-quality model) were determined by sensitivity analysis. Result of parameter estimation for RMA2 and RMA4 models is $1,000\;Pa{\cdot}s$ of the eddy viscosity, 20 of the Peclet number, 0.025 of the Manning coefficient, and $1.0\;m^2/s$ of the diffusion coefficient. We have evaluated the effects of water-quality enhancement of the selected alternatives by numerical simulation technique with the models under the steady-state flow condition and the time-variant transport condition. Because of no-resuspension from river bottom and considering BOD as conservative matter, these simulation results slightly differ from real phenomena. In the case of $50\;m^3/s$ of Daejeo-gate inflow, two-dimensional flow pn results result represents that small velocity occurs in the Pyungkang Stream and no flow in the Maekdo River. In the WNR, there occurs the most rapid flow near timhae-bridge. In the WNR, changes of water-quality for the four selected simulation cases(6, 10, 30, $50\;m^3/s$ of the Daejeo-gate inflow) were predicted. Since the Daejeo-Gate and the Noksan-Gate can be opened up to 7 days, it would be found that sustainable inflow of $30\;m^3/s$ at the Daejeo-gate makes BOD in the WNR to be under the target of water-quality.

An analysis of Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall Events over Yeongdong Region Associated with Tropopause Folding (대류권계면 접힘에 의한 영동지방 집중호우사례의 특성분석)

  • Lee, Hye-Young;Ko, Hye-Young;Kim, Kyung-Eak;Yoon, Ill-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.354-369
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    • 2010
  • The synoptic and kinematic characteristics of a heavy rainfall that occurred in Gangneung region on 22 to 24 October 2006 were investigated using weather maps, infrared images, AWS observation data and NCEP global final analyses data. The total amount of rainfall observed in the region for the period was 316.5 mm, and the instanteneous maximum wind speed was $63.7m\;s^{-1}$. According to the analysis of weather maps, before the starting of the heavy rainfall, an extratropical low pressure system was developed in the middle region of the Korean Peninsula, and an inverted trough was formed in the northern region of the peninsula. In addition, a jet stream on the upper charts of 300 hPa was located over the Yellow Sea and the southern boundary of the peninsula. A cutoff low in the cyclonic shear side of the upper jet streak, which was linked to an anomaly of isentropic potential vorticity, was developed over the northwestern part of the peninsula. And there are analyzed potential vorticity and wind, time-height cross section of potential vorticity, vertical air motion, maximums of the divergence and convergence and vertical distribution of potential temperature in Gangneung region. The analyzed results of the synoptic conditions and kinematic processes strongly suggest that the tropopause folding made a significant role of initializing the heavy rainfall.

Temporal Change in Radiological Environments on Land after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

  • Saito, Kimiaki;Mikami, Satoshi;Andoh, Masaki;Matsuda, Norihiro;Kinase, Sakae;Tsuda, Shuichi;Sato, Tetsuro;Seki, Akiyuki;Sanada, Yukihisa;Wainwright-Murakami, Haruko;Yoshimura, Kazuya;Takemiya, Hiroshi;Takahashi, Junko;Kato, Hiroaki;Onda, Yuichi
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.128-148
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    • 2019
  • Massive environmental monitoring has been conducted continuously since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power accident in March of 2011 by different monitoring methods that have different features together with migration studies of radiocesium in diverse environments. These results have clarified the characteristics of radiological environments and their temporal change around the Fukushima site. At three months after the accident, multiple radionuclides including radiostrontium and plutonium were detected in many locations; and it was confirmed that radiocesium was most important from the viewpoint of long-term exposure. Radiation levels around the Fukushima site have decreased greatly over time. The decreasing trend was found to change variously according to local conditions. The air dose rates in environments related to human living have decreased faster than expected from radioactive decay by a factor of 2-3 on average; those in pure forest have decreased more closely to physical decay. The main causes of air dose rate reduction were judged to be radioactive decay, movement of radiocesium in vertical and horizontal directions, and decontamination. Land-use categories and human activities have significantly affected the reduction tendency. Difference in the air dose rate reduction trends can be explained qualitatively according to the knowledge obtained in radiocesium migration studies; whereas, the quantitative explanation for individual sites is an important future challenge. The ecological half-lives of air dose rates have been evaluated by several researchers, and a short-term half-life within 1 year was commonly observed in the studies. An empirical model for predicting air dose rate distribution was developed based on statistical analysis of an extensive car-borne survey dataset, which enabled the prediction with confidence intervals. Different types of contamination maps were integrated to better quantify the spatial data. The obtained data were used for extended studies such as for identifying the main reactor that caused the contamination of arbitrary regions and developing standard procedures for environmental measurement and sampling. Annual external exposure doses for residents who intended to return to their homes were estimated as within a few millisieverts. Different forms of environmental data and knowledge have been provided for wide spectrum of people. Diverse aspects of lessons learned from the Fukushima accident, including practical ones, must be passed on to future generations.

Annual Average Daily Traffic Estimation using Co-kriging (공동크리깅 모형을 활용한 일반국도 연평균 일교통량 추정)

  • Ha, Jung-Ah;Heo, Tae-Young;Oh, Sei-Chang;Lim, Sung-Han
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2013
  • Annual average daily traffic (AADT) serves the important basic data in transportation sector. Despite of its importance, AADT is estimated through permanent traffic counts (PTC) at limited locations because of constraints in budget and so on. At most of locations, AADT is estimated using short-term traffic counts (STC). Though many studies have been carried out at home and abroad in an effort to enhance the accuracy of AADT estimate, the method to simplify average STC data has been adopted because of application difficulty. A typical model for estimating AADT is an adjustment factor application model which applies the monthly or weekly adjustment factors at PTC points (or group) with similar traffic pattern. But this model has the limit in determining the PTC points (or group) with similar traffic pattern with STC. Because STC represents usually 24-hour or 48-hour data, it's difficult to forecast a 365-day traffic variation. In order to improve the accuracy of traffic volume prediction, this study used the geostatistical approach called co-kriging and according to their reports. To compare results, using 3 methods : using adjustment factor in same section(method 1), using grouping method to apply adjustment factor(method 2), cokriging model using previous year's traffic data which is in a high spatial correlation with traffic volume data as a secondary variable. This study deals with estimating AADT considering time and space so AADT estimation is more reliable comparing other research.

Condition Evaluation of the Pavement Foundations Using Multi-load Level FWD Deflections (다단계 하중 FWD를 사용한 도로기초 상태평가 연구)

  • Park, Hee-Mun;Kim, Richard Y.;Park, Seong-Wan
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.261-271
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    • 2003
  • A condition evaluation procedure for the pavement foundations using multi-load level Falling Weight Deflectometer(FWD) deflections is presented in this paper. A dynamic finite element program incorporating a stress-dependent material model, was used to generate the synthetic deflection database. Based on this synthetic database, the relationships between surface deflections and critical responses, such as stresses and strains in base and subgrade layers, have been established. FWD deflection data, Dynamic Cone Penetrometer(UP) data, and repeated load resilient modulus testing results used in developing this procedure were collected from the Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) and North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) database. Research effort focused on investigation of the effect of the FWD load level on the condition evaluation procedures. The results indicate that the proposed procedure can estimate the pavement foundation conditions. It is also found that structurally adjusted Base Damage Index (BDI) and Base Curvature Index (BCI) are good indicators for the prediction of stiffness characteristics of aggregate base and subgrade respectively. A FWD test with a load of 66.7 kN or less does not improve the accuracy of this procedure. Results from the study for the nonlinear behavior of a pavement foundations indicate that the deflection ratio obtained from multi-load level deflections can predict the type and quality of the pavement foundation materials.

Strength Prediction Equations for High Strength Concrete by Schmidt Hammer Test (슈미트 해머 시험에 의한 고강도 콘크리트의 강도 추정식)

  • Kwon, Young-Wung;Park, Song-Chul;Kim, Min-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.3 s.93
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    • pp.389-395
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    • 2006
  • For the assessment of exsiting concrete structures, it is important to get the real strength of concrete. The load test or core test has many problems due to cost time, easiness, structural damage, and reliability and so on. Thus, various non-destructive test and statistical analysis techniques for strength assessment have been developed. As a result the real strength of concrete can be obtained by both direct and indirect test. In this study, a series of experimental tests of core strength and Schmidt hammer tests on 3, 7, 14, 28, 90, 180, 365, and 730 days' were done for predicting the compressive strength of high strength concrete with 65.0MPa of 28-days' strength. Each experimental results was analyzed by simple regression analysis. Then, reliability level and error rate between the proposed equations and the existing ones was examined. However, the application of the exsisting equations was inadequate to high strength concrete, because they were conducted under normal strength concrete. Therefore, the following compressive strength equations were proposed for predicting the compressive strength of high strength concrete by Schmidt hammer test. The proposed equations by Schmidt hammer test are as follows.

The Software Complexity Estimation Method in Algorithm Level by Analysis of Source code (소스코드의 분석을 통한 알고리즘 레벨에서의 소프트웨어 복잡도 측정 방법)

  • Lim, Woong;Nam, Jung-Hak;Sim, Dong-Gyu;Cho, Dae-Sung;Choi, Woong-Il
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.153-164
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    • 2010
  • A program consumes energy by executing its instructions. The amount of cosumed power is mainly proportional to algorithm complexity and it can be calculated by using complexity information. Generally, the complexity of a S/W is estimated by the microprocessor simulator. But, the simulation takes long time why the simulator is a software modeled the hardware and it only provides the information about computational complexity quantitatively. In this paper, we propose a complexity estimation method of analysis of S/W on source code level and produce the complexity metric mathematically. The function-wise complexity metrics give the detailed information about the calculation-concentrated location in function. The performance of the proposed method is compared with the result of the gate-level microprocessor simulator 'SimpleScalar'. The used softwares for performance test are $4{\times}4$ integer transform, intra-prediction and motion estimation in the latest video codec, H.264/AVC. The number of executed instructions are used to estimate quantitatively and it appears about 11.6%, 9.6% and 3.5% of error respectively in contradistinction to the result of SimpleScalar.

Changes Detection of Ice Dimension in Cheonji, Baekdu Mountain Using Sentinel-1 Image Classification (Sentinel-1 위성의 영상 분류 기법을 이용한 백두산 천지의 얼음 면적 변화 탐지)

  • Park, Sungjae;Eom, Jinah;Ko, Bokyun;Park, Jeong-Won;Lee, Chang-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2020
  • Cheonji, the largest caldera lake in Asia, is located at the summit of Baekdu Mountain. Cheonji is covered with snow and ice for about six months of the year due to its high altitude and its surrounding environment. Since most of the sources of water are from groundwater, the water temperature is closely related to the volcanic activity. However, in the 2000s, many volcanic activities have been monitored on the mountain. In this study, we analyzed the dimension of ice produced during winter in Baekdu Mountain using Sentinel-1 satellite image data provided by the European Space Agency (ESA). In order to calculate the dimension of ice from the backscatter image of the Sentinel-1 satellite, 20 Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) layers were generated from two polarization images using texture analysis. The method used in calculating the area was utilized with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm to classify the GLCM layer which is to calculate the dimension of ice in the image. Also, the calculated area was correlated with temperature data obtained from Samjiyeon weather station. This study could be used as a basis for suggesting an alternative to the new method of calculating the area of ice before using a long-term time series analysis on a full scale.