• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제32권7호
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• pp.19-28
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• 2004

본 논문은 과도상태의 압력데이터로부터 평형상태의 압력을 예측하는 방법을 제시하고 있다. 압력을 측정하는 곳과 압력센서는 튜브로 연결되어져 있다. 측정하고자하는 압력 (측정압력)이 높은 경우에는 압력센서가 빠른 시간 내에 측정압력에 반응을 한다. 그러나 매우 낮은 압력을 측정하는 경우에는 압력센서가 실시간으로 측정압력에 반응을 하지 못하여 압력지연현상이 발생하게 된다. 이러한 압력지연현상을 파악하고자 여러 가지 실험이 수행되었다. 본 연구의 제시된 평형압력예측방법은 낮은 압력을 측정함에 있어서 측정시간을 단축시킬 수 있다.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시뮬레이션학회 2005년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.29-33
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• 2005

Grid computing is widely applicable to various fields of industry including process control and manufacturing, military command and control, transportation management, and so on. In a viewpoint of application area, grid computing can be classified to three aspects that are computational grid, data grid and access grid. This paper focuses on computational grid which handles complex and large-scale computing problems. Computational grid is characterized by system dynamics which handles a variety of processors and jobs on continuous time. To solve problems of system complexity and reliability due to complex system dynamics, computational grid needs scheduling policies that allocate various jobs to proper processors and decide processing orders of allocated jobs. This paper proposes the service prediction-based job scheduling model and present its algorithm that is applicable for computational grid. The service prediction-based job scheduling model can minimize overall system execution time since the model predicts a processing time of each processing component and distributes a job to processing component with minimum processing time. This paper implements the job scheduling model on the DEVSJAVA modeling and simulation environment and simulates with a case study to evaluate its efficiency and reliability Empirical results, which are compared to the conventional scheduling policies such as the random scheduling and the round-robin scheduling, show the usefulness of service prediction-based job scheduling.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.10-21
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• 2018

Many construction projects involve a plethora of safety-related problems that can cause loss of productivity, diminished revenue, time overruns, and legal challenges. Incorporating data collection and analytics methods can help overcome the root causes of many such problems. However, in a dynamic construction workplace collecting data from a large number of resources is not a trivial task and can be costly, while many contractors lack the motivation to incorporate technology in their activities. In this research, an Android-based mobile application, Preemptive Construction Site Safety (PCS2) is developed and tested for real-time location tracking, trajectory prediction, and prevention of potential collisions between workers and site hazards. PCS2 uses ubiquitous mobile technology (smartphones) for positional data collection, and a robust trajectory prediction technique that couples hidden Markov model (HMM) with risk-taking behavior modeling. The effectiveness of PCS2 is evaluated in field experiments where impending collisions are predicted and safety alerts are generated with enough lead time for the user. With further improvement in interface design and underlying mathematical models, PCS2 will have practical benefits in large scale multi-agent construction worksites by significantly reducing the likelihood of proximity-related accidents between workers and equipment.

• 한국정보처리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보처리학회 2001년도 추계학술발표논문집 (상)
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• pp.535-538
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• 2001

Since 1990s, many literatures have shown that connectionist models, such as back propagation, recurrent network, and RBF (Radial Basis Function) outperform the traditional models, MA (Moving Average), AR (Auto Regressive), and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) in time series prediction. Neural based approaches to time series prediction require the enough length of historical measurements to generate the enough number of training patterns. The more training patterns, the better the generalization of MLP is. The researches about the schemes of generating artificial training patterns and adding to the original ones have been progressed and gave me the motivation of developing VTG schemes in 1996. Virtual term is an estimated measurement, X(t+0.5) between X(t) and X(t+1), while the given measurements in the series are called actual terms. VTG (Virtual Tern Generation) is the process of estimating of X(t+0.5), and VTG schemes are the techniques for the estimation of virtual terms. In this paper, the alternative VTG schemes to the VTG schemes proposed in 1996 will be proposed and applied to multivariate time series prediction. The VTG schemes proposed in 1996 are called deterministic VTG schemes, while the alternative ones are called stochastic VTG schemes in this paper.

• 4차산업연구
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.13-20
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• 2023

Purpose - By designing a PEF(Personalized Education Feedback) system for real-time prediction of learning achievement and motivation through real-time EEG analysis of learners, this system provides some modules of a personalized adaptive learning system. By applying these modules to e-learning and offline learning, they motivate learners and improve the quality of learning progress and effective learning outcomes can be achieved for immersive self-directed learning Research design, data, and methodology - EEG data were collected simultaneously as the English test was given to the experimenters, and the correlation between the correct answer result and the EEG data was learned with a machine learning algorithm and the predictive model was evaluated.. Result - In model performance evaluation, both artificial neural networks(ANNs) and support vector machines(SVMs) showed high accuracy of more than 91%. Conclusion - This research provides some modules of personalized adaptive learning systems that can more efficiently complete by designing a PEF system for real-time learning achievement prediction and learning motivation through an adaptive learning system based on real-time EEG analysis of learners. The implication of this initial research is to verify hypothetical situations for the development of an adaptive learning system through EEG analysis-based learning achievement prediction.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신학회 2021년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.204-206
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• 2021

실시간 시추매개변수 예측은 시추효율의 극대화 관점에서 상당히 중요한 연구이다. 시추 극대화 방법 중 시추속도를 향상시키는 방법이 일반적인데 이는 굴진율, 시추스트링 회전속도, 비트 하중, 시추이수 유량과 연관관계를 지니고 있다. 본 연구는 실시간 시추매개변수 중 하나인 굴진율을 순환신경망기반 딥러닝 모델을 이용하여 예측하는 방법을 제안하였으며 기존의 물리적 기반의 굴진율 모델과 딥러닝 모델을 이용한 예측 모델을 비교해 보고자 한다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:시스템및제어부문D
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• 제54권6호
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• pp.390-395
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• 2005

Sunspots are dark areas that grow and decay on the lowest level of the sun that is visible from the Earth. Shot-term predictions of solar activity are essential to help plan missions and to design satellites that will survive for their useful lifetimes. This paper presents a parallel-structure fuzzy system(PSFS) for prediction of sunspot number time series. The PSFS consists of a multiple number of component fuzzy systems connected in parallel. Each component fuzzy system in the PSFS predicts future data independently based on its past time series data with different embedding dimension and time delay. An embedding dimension determines the number of inputs of each component fuzzy system and a time delay decides the interval of inputs of the time series. According to the embedding dimension and the time delay, the component fuzzy system takes various input-output pairs. The PSFS determines the final predicted value as an average of all the outputs of the component fuzzy systems in order to reduce error accumulation effect.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제50권4호
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• pp.701-716
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• 2022

Purpose: This study aims to predict the dry cargo transportation market economy. The subject of this study is the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) time-series, an index representing the dry cargo transport market. Methods: In order to increase the accuracy of the BDI time-series, we have pre-processed the original time-series via time-series decomposition and data augmentation techniques and have used them for ANN learning. The ANN algorithms used are Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to compare and analyze the case of learning and predicting by applying time-series decomposition and data augmentation techniques. The forecast period aims to make short-term predictions at the time of t+1. The period to be studied is from '22. 01. 07 to '22. 08. 26. Results: Only for the case of the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) indicator, all ANN models used in the research has resulted in higher accuracy (1.422% on average) in multivariate prediction. Although it is not a remarkable improvement in prediction accuracy compared to uni-variate prediction results, it can be said that the improvement in ANN prediction performance has been achieved by utilizing time-series decomposition and data augmentation techniques that were significant and targeted throughout this study. Conclusion: Nevertheless, due to the nature of ANN, additional performance improvements can be expected according to the adjustment of the hyper-parameter. Therefore, it is necessary to try various applications of multiple learning algorithms and ANN optimization techniques. Such an approach would help solve problems with a small number of available data, such as the rapidly changing business environment or the current shipping market.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.461-472
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• 2024

We propose a network traffic prediction model based on linear and nonlinear model combination. Network traffic is modeled by an autoregressive moving average model, and the error between the measured and predicted network traffic values is obtained. Then, an echo state network is used to fit the prediction error with nonlinear components. In addition, an improved slime mold algorithm is proposed for reservoir parameter optimization of the echo state network, further improving the regression performance. The predictions of the linear (autoregressive moving average) and nonlinear (echo state network) models are added to obtain the final prediction. Compared with other prediction models, test results on two network traffic datasets from mobile and fixed networks show that the proposed prediction model has a smaller error and difference measures. In addition, the coefficient of determination and index of agreement is close to 1, indicating a better data fitting performance. Although the proposed prediction model has a slight increase in time complexity for training and prediction compared with some models, it shows practical applicability.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제32권6B호
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• pp.375-381
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• 2007

본 연구는 상황 인지 서비스 구현의 다양한 기술 요소 중, 추론 및 예측 기술에 초점을 둔다. 대표적인 예측 알고리즘에는 베이시안 네트워크가 있으나 상황 인지 시스템을 구현할 때 그 구조를 실제로 구현하는 것은 매우 복잡한 일이며 실시간 환경에서 트레이닝 데이터 처리에서 오는 시간 지연 문제 등이 발생하게 된다. 또한 특정 목적의 상황 인지 시스템에서 이 알고리즘이 어느 정도 예측 정확도와 신뢰도를 가지고 상황 정보와 부합하는지 역시 미지수이다. 본 논문에서는 가장 간단한 알고리즘인 순차적 매칭 알고리즘에 캐시 기법을 이용한 위치 예측 알고리즘을 제안한다. 이러한 접근 방식을 통해 알고리즘 수행 시 처리 시간을 캐시 기법을 사용하지 않았을 때 보다 평균적으로 48.7%를 줄이게 된다. 이는 사용자의 습관이나 행동 양식을 고려함으로써 상황 인지 시스템의 상황 정보와 부합하기 때문이라 할 수 있다.