• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time prediction

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Studies on the Changes of Sex Hormone Concentrations in Milk during the Reproductive Stages of Dairy Cows (유우의 번식과정에 따른 유즙중의 성호르몬 수준 변화에 관한 연구)

  • 김상근;이재근
    • Korean Journal of Animal Reproduction
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.9-30
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    • 1985
  • The study was carried out to find out the changes of the sex hormone levels in the milk of Holstein cows during the reproductive stages such as the estrous cycle, pregnancy and periparturient period. The FSH, LH, estradiol-17$\beta$ and progesterone from the milk samples were assayed by radioimmunoassay methods. The results of this study were summarized as follows: 1. The levels of progesterone and estradiol-17$\beta$ were similar among inter-quarters, but they were higher in after milking than before milking times, with no statistical significance. 2. The milk progesterone levels during the estrous cycles reached a peak mean level of 3.55$\pm$0.26ng/$m\ell$ at 15 days after estrus and they did not show any differences among the length of estrous cycles. The estradiol-17$\beta$ levels during the estrous cycles showed a peak level of 36.40$\pm$2.38pg/$m\ell$ at estrus, and decreased(17.20$\pm$0.46 pg/$m\ell$ to 18.65$\pm$1.26pg/$m\ell$) at luteal phase. 3. The FSH levels during the estrous cycles ranged from 2.25$\pm$0.23mIU/$m\ell$ to 4.35$\pm$0.24mIU/$m\ell$ showing significant changes. The LH levels during the estrous cycles gradually increased and remained a peak level of 10.90$\pm$0.36mIU/$m\ell$ from 20 to 25 days after estrus. 4. The progesterone levels during the pregnancy were decreased from 30 to 60 days after artificial insemination, and therafter continuously increased until 240 days. The estradiol-17$\beta$ levels during the pregnancy were 24.56$\pm$1.19pg/$m\ell$ at day 30 after artificial inseminaton, and increased rapidly until 180 days. The levles were agagin decreased by 26.17$\pm$3.03pg/$m\ell$ until 210 days and markedly increased by 68.00$\pm$8.70pg/$m\ell$ until 240 days. 5. The prolactin levels during the pregnancy were 31.27$\pm$2.31ng/$m\ell$ and 42.60$\pm$2.37ng/$m\ell$ at day 150 and 240 after artificial insemination respectively. The LH levels during the pregnancy reached a peak of 27.47$\pm$7.90mIU/$m\ell$ at day 30 after artificial insemination, and thereafter gradually decreased. 6. The progesterone levels during the periparturient period reached a peak of 4.61$\pm$0.34ng/$m\ell$ at day 3 prepartum, and thereafter gradually decreased, and showed 2.05$\pm$0.60ng/$m\ell$ at day 7 postpartum. The estradiol-17$\beta$ levels during the periparturient period showed high level from 207.23$\pm$6.04pg/$m\ell$ at day 1 prepartum to 239.90$\pm$13.90pg/$m\ell$ at day 2 prepartum, and thereafter began to decline and reached 51.87$\pm$1.72pg/$m\ell$ at by 7 postpartum. 7. The prolactin levels during the periparturient period showed relatively higher level at the time of parturition. The LH levels during the periparturient period rnage from 6.32$\pm$0.32mIU/$m\ell$ to 13.90$\pm$1.37mIU/$m\ell$ showing significant changes. 8. The progesterone levels(4.6$\pm$0.8ng/$m\ell$) of the pregnant cows were significantly higher than those (1.84$\pm$1.4ng/$m\ell$) of nonpregnant cows. The cows of artificial insemination from 61 to 90 days after parturition showed higher progesterone levels. 9. During 20 to 25 days after artificial insemination, the accuracy of pregnancy diagnosis from milk progesterone levels were 94.4% for nonpregnant cows(<2.3ng/$m\ell$), and 75.0% for pregnant cows( 3.2ng/$m\ell$). The average overall accuracy of pregnancy prediction for nonpregnant and pregnant cows 83.3% 10. The results obtained this study suggest that the understanding of the endocrinological mechanisms by means of milk hormone analysis during the estrous cycle, pregnancy and parturition would give the basic information needed for increasing efficiency of reproduction. This study would not only provide an accurate method of the early pregnancy diagnosis by milk progesterone levels but also contribute to the research of providing the method of detecting of FSH levels in milk, which was difficult in blood serum.

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Prediction of infectious diseases using multiple web data and LSTM (다중 웹 데이터와 LSTM을 사용한 전염병 예측)

  • Kim, Yeongha;Kim, Inhwan;Jang, Beakcheol
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2020
  • Infectious diseases have long plagued mankind, and predicting and preventing them has been a big challenge for mankind. For this reasen, various studies have been conducted so far to predict infectious diseases. Most of the early studies relied on epidemiological data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the problem was that the data provided by the CDC was updated only once a week, making it difficult to predict the number of real-time disease outbreaks. However, with the emergence of various Internet media due to the recent development of IT technology, studies have been conducted to predict the occurrence of infectious diseases through web data, and most of the studies we have researched have been using single Web data to predict diseases. However, disease forecasting through a single Web data has the disadvantage of having difficulty collecting large amounts of learning data and making accurate predictions through models for recent outbreaks such as "COVID-19". Thus, we would like to demonstrate through experiments that models that use multiple Web data to predict the occurrence of infectious diseases through LSTM models are more accurate than those that use single Web data and suggest models suitable for predicting infectious diseases. In this experiment, we predicted the occurrence of "Malaria" and "Epidemic-parotitis" using a single web data model and the model we propose. A total of 104 weeks of NEWS, SNS, and search query data were collected, of which 75 weeks were used as learning data and 29 weeks were used as verification data. In the experiment we predicted verification data using our proposed model and single web data, Pearson correlation coefficient for the predicted results of our proposed model showed the highest similarity at 0.94, 0.86, and RMSE was also the lowest at 0.19, 0.07.

Variation of Inflow Density Currents with Different Flood Magnitude in Daecheong Reservoir (홍수 규모별 대청호에 유입하는 하천 밀도류의 특성 변화)

  • Yoon, Sung-Wan;Chung, Se-Woong;Choi, Jung-Kyu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.12
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    • pp.1219-1230
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    • 2008
  • Stream inflows induced by flood runoffs have a higher density than the ambient reservoir water because of a lower water temperature and elevated suspended sediment(SS) concentration. As the propagation of density currents that formed by density difference between inflow and ambient water affects reservoir water quality and ecosystem, an understanding of reservoir density current is essential for an optimization of filed monitoring, analysis and forecast of SS and nutrient transport, and their proper management and control. This study was aimed to quantify the characteristics of inflow density current including plunge depth($d_p$) and distance($X_p$), separation depth($d_s$), interflow thickness($h_i$), arrival time to dam($t_a$), reduction ratio(${\beta}$) of SS contained stream inflow for different flood magnitude in Daecheong Reservoir with a validated two-dimensional(2D) numerical model. 10 different flood scenarios corresponding to inflow densimetric Froude number($Fr_i$) range from 0.920 to 9.205 were set up based on the hydrograph obtained from June 13 to July 3, 2004. A fully developed stratification condition was assumed as an initial water temperature profile. Higher $Fr_i$(inertia-to-buoyancy ratio) resulted in a greater $d_p,\;X_p,\;d_s,\;h_i$, and faster propagation of interflow, while the effect of reservoir geometry on these characteristics was significant. The Hebbert equation that estimates $d_p$ assuming steady-state flow condition with triangular cross section substantially over-estimated the $d_p$ because it does not consider the spatial variation of reservoir geometry and water surface changes during flood events. The ${\beta}$ values between inflow and dam sites were decreased as $Fr_i$ increased, but reversed after $Fr_i$>9.0 because of turbulent mixing effect. The results provides a practical and effective prediction measures for reservoir operators to first capture the behavior of turbidity inflow.

Analysis and Prediction of Sewage Components of Urban Wastewater Treatment Plant Using Neural Network (대도시 하수종말처리장 유입 하수의 성상 평가와 인공신경망을 이용한 구성성분 농도 예측)

  • Jeong, Hyeong-Seok;Lee, Sang-Hyung;Shin, Hang-Sik;Song, Eui-Yeol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.308-315
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    • 2006
  • Since sewage characteristics are the most important factors that can affect the biological reactions in wastewater treatment plants, a detailed understanding on the characteristics and on-line measurement techniques of the influent sewage would play an important role in determining the appropriate control strategies. In this study, samples were taken at two hour intervals during 51 days from $1^{st}$ October to $21^{st}$ November 2005 from the influent gate of sewage treatment plant. Then the characteristics of sewage were investigated. It was found that the daily values of flow rate and concentrations of sewage components showed a defined profile. The highest and lowest peak values were observed during $11:00{\sim}13:00$ hours and $05:00{\sim}07:00$ hours, respectively. Also, it was shown that the concentrations of sewage components were strongly correlated with the absorbance measured at 300 nm of UV. Therefore, the objective of the paper is to develop on-line estimation technique of the concentration of each component in the sewage using accumulated profiles of sewage, absorbance, and flow rate which can be measured in real time. As a first step, regression analysis was performed using the absorbance and component concentration data. Then a neural network trained with the input of influent flow rate, absorbance, and inflow duration was used. Both methods showed remarkable accuracy in predicting the resulting concentrations of the individual components of the sewage. In case of using the neural network, the predicted value md of the measurement were 19.3 and 14.4 for TSS, 26.7 and 25.1 for TCOD, 5.4 and 4.1 for TN, and for TP, 0.45 to 0.39, respectively.

The Generation of Westerly Waves by Sobaek Mountains (소백산맥에 의한 서풍 파동 발생)

  • Kim, Jin wook;Youn, Daeok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.24-34
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    • 2017
  • The westerly waves generation is described in the advanced earth science textbook used at high school as follows: as westerly wind approaches and blows over large mountains, the air flow shows wave motions in downwind side, which can be explained by the conservation of potential vorticity. However, there has been no case study showing the phenomena of the mesoscale westerly waves with observational data in the area of small mountains in Korea. And thus the wind speed and time persistency of westerly winds along with the width and length of mountains have never been studied to explain the generation of the westerly waves. As a first step, we assured the westerly waves generated in the downwind side of Sobaek mountains based on surface station wind data nearby. Furthermore, the critical or minimum wind velocity of the westerly wind over Sobaek mountains to generate the downwind wave were derived and calcuated tobe about $0.6m\;s^{-1}$ for Sobaek mountains, which means that the westerly waves could be generated in most cases of westerly blowing over the mountains. Using surface station data and 4-dimensional assimilation data of RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) provided by Korea Meteorological Agency, we also analyzed cases of westerly waves occurrence and life cycle in the downwind side of Sobaek mountains for a year of 2014. The westerly waves occurred in meso-${\beta}$ or -${\gamma}$ scales. The westerly waves generated by the mountains disappeared gradually with wind speed decreasing. The occurrence frequency of the vorticity with meso-${\beta}$ scale got to be higher when the stronger westerly wind blew. When we extended the spatial range of the analysis, phenomena of westerly waves were also observed in the downwind side of Yensan mountains in Northeastern China. Our current work will be a study material to help students understand the atmospheric phenomena perturbed by mountains.

Management Planning and Change for Nineteen Years(1993~2011) of Plant Community of the Pinus densiflora S. et Z. Forest in Namhan Mountain Fortress, Korea (남한산성 소나무림의 19년간(1993~2011년) 식생구조 변화와 관리방안)

  • Lee, Kyong-Jae;Han, Bong-Ho;Lee, Hak-Gi;Noh, Tai-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.559-575
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    • 2012
  • This study, targeting Namhan Mountain Fortress which was designated as a No. 57 national historic site and placed on the World Heritage Tentative List in 2010, was intended to identify the change of vegetation structures by reviewing past references, pictures, research data and additionally conducting a site survey. Also, it was designed to draw up measures for restoring vegetation suitable for historically and culturally valuable Namhan Mountain Fortress. According to the biotope mapping of study site, Quercus spp. forest distributed a greatest part of area with 40.8% of $2,611,823m^2$. Pinus densiflora forest, highly likely to go through ecological succession, was dispersed in the whole region of Cheongryangsan, the area from West Gate to North Gate and the ranges between South Gate to Cheongryangsan with taking 16.5%. Pinus densiflora forest with a low probability of succession amounted to 4.7% and was dispersed mainly in the forest behind Namhansan elementary school. Pinus densiflora going on the ecological succession is distributed a portion of 2.9%. And the currently dying out Pinus densiflora forest amounted to 2.1%. As a result of analysis of the vegetation structure for 19 years, the succession from Pinus densiflora forest to Pinus densiflora and succession from Quercus spp. mixed forest to Quercus spp. forest to Carpinus laxiflora forest were predicted. Additionally, Quercus spp. expanded its dominance over time. According to the characteristics of each classified zone, the site was categorized into $553,508m^2$ area of Pinus densiflora forest area for the landscape maintenance, $114,293m^2$ area of Pinus densiflora forest area for the landscape restoration, $205,306m^2$ area of Pinus densiflora forest area for the disclimax, and $1,169,973m^2$ area of Pinus densiflora forest area for inducing ecological succession.

Consolidation Behavior of Soft Ground by Prefabricated Vertical Drains (페이퍼드레인 공법에 의한 연약지반의 압밀거동)

  • Lee, Dal Won;Kang, Yea Mook;Kim, Seong Wan;Chee, In Taeg
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.145-155
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    • 1997
  • The large scaled field test by prefabricated vertical drains was performed to evaluate the superiority of vertical discharge capacity for drain materials through compare and analyze the time-settlement behavior with drain spacing and the compression index and consolidation coefficient obtained by laboratory experiments and field monitoring system. 1. The relation of measurement settlement($S_m$) versus design settlement($S_t$) and measurement consolidation ratio($U_m$) versus design consolidation ratio($U_t$) were shown $S_m=(1.0{\sim}1.1)S_t$, $U_m=(1.13{\sim}1.17)U_t$ at 1.0m drain spacing and $S_m=(0.7{\sim}0.8)S_t$, $U_m=(0.92{\sim}0.99)U_t$ at l.5m drain spacing, respectively. 2. The relation of field compressing index($C_{cfield}$) and virgin compression index($V_{cclab.}$) was shown $C_{cfield}=(1.0{\sim}1.2)V_{cclab.}$, But it was nearly same value when considered the error with determination method of virgin compression index and prediction method of total settlement. 3. Field consolidation coefficient was larger than laboratory consolidation coefficient, and the consolidation coefficient ratio($C_h/C_v$) were $C_h=(2.4{\sim}3.0)C_v$. $C_h=(3.5{\sim}4.3)C_v$ at 1.0m and 1.5m drain spacing and increased with increasing of drain spacing. 4. The evaluation of vertical discharge capacity with drain spacing from the results of the consolidation coefficient ratio showed largely superior in case the Mebra drain and Amer drain than other drain materials at 1.0m and 1.5m drain spacing, while the values showed nearly same value in case same drain spacing.

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Expression of EGFR in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer and its Effects on Survival (비소세포 폐암에서 EGFR의 발현률과 생존률에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hak-Ryul;Jeong, Eun-Taik
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.1285-1295
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    • 1997
  • Background : EGFR is one of the initial step in signal transduction pathway about multistep carcinogenesis. It is homologous to oncogene erbB-2 and is the receptor for EGF and TGF alpha. EGFR has important role in the growth and differentiation of tumor cells. So, EGFR in non-small cell lung cancer was examined to search for possible evidence as clinical prognostic factor. Methods : To investigate the role of EGFR in lung cancer, the author performed immunohistochemical stain of EGFR on 57 resected primary non-small cell lung cancer specimens. And the author analyzed the correlation between EGFR expression, clinical parameters, Sand $G_1$ phase fraction and survival. Results : 1) EGFR were detected in 56% of total 57 patients (according to histologic type, squamous cancer 50%, adenocarcinoma 63%, large cell cancer 75%) (according to TNM stage, stage I 64%, stage II 38%, stage III 55%) (according to cellular differentiation, well 50%, moderately 52%, poorly 65%). All differences were insignificant 2) Using the flow cytometric analysis, mean S-phase fraction of EGFR (+) and (-) group were 22.3(${\pm}10.5$)%. 18.0(${\pm}10.9$)% (p>0.05), mean $G_1$-phase fraction of EGFR (+) and (-) group were 68.4(${\pm}11.6$)%, 71.1(${\pm}12.8$)%, (p>0.05) 3) Two-year survival rate of EGFR (+) and (-) group were 53%, 84%, median survival time of EGFR (+) and (-) group were 26, 53 months. (p<0.05, Kaplan-Meier, generalized Wilcox) Conclusion : EGFR immunostaining may be a simple and useful method for survival prediction in non-small cell lung cancer.

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Factors Predicting the Development of Radiation Pneumonitis in the Patients Receiving Radiation Therapy for Lung Cancer (방사선 치료를 시행 받은 폐암 환자에서 방사선 폐렴의 발생에 관한 예측 인자)

  • An, Jin Yong;Lee, Yun Sun;Kwon, Sun Jung;Park, Hee Sun;Jung, Sung Soo;Kim, Jin whan;Kim, Ju Ock;Jo, Moon Jun;Kim, Sun Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.40-50
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    • 2004
  • Background : Radiation pneumonitis(RP) is the major serious complication of thoracic irradiation treatment. In this study, we attempted to retrospectively evaluate the long-term prognosis of patients who experienced acute RP and to identify factor that might allow prediction of RP. Methods : Of the 114 lung cancer patients who underwent thoracic radiotherapy between December 2000 and December 2002, We performed analysis using a database of 90 patients who were capable of being evaluated. Results : Of the 44 patients(48.9%) who experienced clinical RP in this study, the RP was mild in 33(36.6%) and severe in 11(12.3%). All of severe RP were treated with corticosteroids. The median starting corticosteroids dose was 34 mg(30~40) and median treatment duration was 68 days(8~97). The median survival time of the 11 patients who experienced severe RP was significantly poorer than the mild RP group. (p=0.046) The higher total radiation dose(${\geq}60Gy$) was significantly associated with developing in RP.(p=0.001) The incidence of RP did not correlate with any of the ECOG performance, pulmonary function test, age, cell type, history of smoking, radiotherapy combined with chemotherapy, once-daily radiotherapy dose fraction. Also, serum albumin level, uric acid level at onset of RP did not influence the risk of severe RP in our study. Conclusion : Only the higher total radiation dose(${\geq}60Gy$) was a significant risk factor predictive of RP. Also severe RP was an adverse prognostic factor.

Development of a TBM Advance Rate Model and Its Field Application Based on Full-Scale Shield TBM Tunneling Tests in 70 MPa of Artificial Rock Mass (70 MPa급 인공암반 내 실대형 쉴드TBM 굴진실험을 통한 굴진율 모델 및 활용방안 제안)

  • Kim, Jungjoo;Kim, Kyoungyul;Ryu, Heehwan;Hwan, Jung Ju;Hong, Sungyun;Jo, Seonah;Bae, Dusan
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.305-313
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    • 2020
  • The use of cable tunnels for electric power transmission as well as their construction in difficult conditions such as in subsea terrains and large overburden areas has increased. So, in order to efficiently operate the small diameter shield TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine), the estimation of advance rate and development of a design model is necessary. However, due to limited scope of survey and face mapping, it is very difficult to match the rock mass characteristics and TBM operational data in order to achieve their mutual relationships and to develop an advance rate model. Also, the working mechanism of previously utilized linear cutting machine is slightly different than the real excavation mechanism owing to the penetration of a number of disc cutters taking place at the same time in the rock mass in conjunction with rotation of the cutterhead. So, in order to suggest the advance rate and machine design models for small diameter TBMs, an EPB (Earth Pressure Balance) shield TBM having 3.54 m diameter cutterhead was manufactured and 19 cases of full-scale tunneling tests were performed each in 87.5 ㎥ volume of artificial rock mass. The relationships between advance rate and machine data were effectively analyzed by performing the tests in homogeneous rock mass with 70 MPa uniaxial compressive strength according to the TBM operational parameters such as thrust force and RPM of cutterhead. The utilization of the recorded penetration depth and torque values in the development of models is more accurate and realistic since they were derived through real excavation mechanism. The relationships between normal force on single disc cutter and penetration depth as well as between normal force and rolling force were suggested in this study. The prediction of advance rate and design of TBM can be performed in rock mass having 70 MPa strength using these relationships. An effort was made to improve the application of the developed model by applying the FPI (Field Penetration Index) concept which can overcome the limitation of 100% RQD (Rock Quality Designation) in artificial rock mass.