• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time Series Regression Analysis

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Evaluation of the Applicability of Sediment Discharge Measurement in Mountain Stream using the Load-cell Sensor (Load-cell Sensor를 이용한 산지 토사유출량 계측의 현장 적용성 검토)

  • Seo, Jun-Pyo;Lee, Ki-Hwan;Kim, Dong-Yeob;Woo, Choong-Shik;Lee, Chang-Woo;Lee, Heon-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.644-653
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    • 2018
  • Landslides occur frequently due to the effects of heavy rainfall and typhoons caused by climate change. Erosion control measures are needed to effectively prevent landslide damage. In order to improve their efficiency, it is necessary to quantitatively measure the sediment discharge from the mountain stream. In this study, a load cell sensor was installed in a mountain stream and the measured values were compared according to the applicability and load test type in the mountain stream. The result of the load test showed that the effect of the loading type (load test 1, 2) was low at average (loadings) of 0.4kgf and 0.6kgf at sites 1 and 2, respectively. The load factor was also derived by regression analysis to increase the accuracy of the measured values. According to the results of the load factor (normalized) to the load-cell measurement value, the output value increased by 14.8% and 24.6% in sites 1 and 2, respectively, and was calculated to be similar to the reference value. The load cell sensor enabled us to quantitatively estimate the amount of sediment discharge in the mountain stream through time series analysis with the water level and rainfall information. If the monitoring is carried out for a long time, it can be used to find the sediment discharge mechanism for the mountain stream. In addition, applying sensors such as load-cells to a mountain stream is expected to contribute to the development of related industries, such as the manufacturing of measurement sensors.

An Analysis of Determinants of Medical Cost Inflation using both Deterministic and Stochastic Models (의료비 상승 요인 분석)

  • Kim, Han-Joong;Chun, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.22 no.4 s.28
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    • pp.542-554
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    • 1989
  • The skyrocketing inflation of medical costs has become a major health problem among most developed countries. Korea, which recently covered the entire population with National Health Insurance, is facing the same problem. The proportion of health expenditure to GNP has increased from 3% to 4.8% during the last decade. This was remarkable, if we consider the rapid economic growth during that time. A few policy analysts began to raise cost containment as an agenda, after recognizing the importance of medical cost inflation. In order to Prepare an appropriate alternative for the agenda, it is necessary to find out reasons for the cost inflation. Then, we should focus on the reasons which are controllable, and those whose control are socially desirable. This study is designed to articulate the theory of medical cost inflation through literature reviews, to find out reasons for cost inflation, by analyzing aggregated data with a deterministic model. Finally to identify determinants of changes in both medical demand and service intensity which are major reasons for cost inflation. The reasons for cost inflation are classified into cost push inflation and demand pull inflation, The former consists of increases in price and intensity of services, while the latter is made of consumer derived demand and supplier induced demand. We used a time series (1983-1987), and cross sectional (over regions) data of health insurance. The deterministic model reveals, that an increase in service intensity is a major cause of inflation in the case of inpatient care, while, more utilization, is a primary attribute in the case of physician visits. Multiple regression analysis shows that an increase in hospital beds is a leading explanatory variable for the increase in hospital care. It also reveals, that an introduction of a deductible clause, an increase in hospital beds and degree of urbanization, are statistically significant variables explaining physician visits. The results are consistent with the existing theory, The magnitude of service intensity is influenced by the level of co-payment, the proportion of old age and an increase in co-payment. In short, an increase in co-payment reduced the utilization, but it induced more intensities or services. We can conclude that the strict fee regulation or increase in the level of co-payment can not be an effective measure for cost containment under the fee for service system. Because the provider can react against the regulation by inducing more services.

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Correction of Lunar Irradiation Effect and Change Detection Using Suomi-NPP Data (VIIRS DNB 영상의 달빛 영향 보정 및 변화 탐지)

  • Lee, Boram;Lee, Yoon-Kyung;Kim, Donghan;Kim, Sang-Wan
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.265-278
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    • 2019
  • Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) data help to enable rapid emergency responses through detection of the artificial and natural disasters occurring at night. The DNB data without correction of lunar irradiance effect distributed by Korea Ocean Science Center (KOSC) has advantage for rapid change detection because of direct receiving. In this study, radiance differences according to the phase of the moon was analyzed for urban and mountain areas in Korean Peninsula using the DNB data directly receiving to KOSC. Lunar irradiance correction algorithm was proposed for the change detection. Relative correction was performed by regression analysis between the selected pixels considering the land cover classification in the reference DNB image during the new moon and the input DNB image. As a result of daily difference image analysis, the brightness value change in urban area and mountain area was ${\pm}30$ radiance and below ${\pm}1$ radiance respectively. The object based change detection was performed after the extraction of the main object of interest based on the average image of time series data in order to reduce the matching and geometric error between DNB images. The changes in brightness occurring in mountainous areas were effectively detected after the calibration of lunar irradiance effect, and it showed that the developed technology could be used for real time change detection.

Variation and Forecast of Rural Population in Korea: 1960-1985 (농촌인구(農村人口)의 변화(變化)와 예측(豫測))

  • Kwon, Yong Duk;Choi, Kyu Seob
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.8
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 1990
  • This study investigated the relationship between the cutflow of rural population and agricultural policy by using time series method. For the analytical tools, decomposition time series methods and regression technique were employed in computing seasonal fluctuation and cyclical fluctuation of population migration. Also, this study predicted farmhouse, rural population till the 2000's by means of the mathematical methods. The analytical forms employed in forecasting farmhouse, rural population were Exponential curve, Gompertz curve and Transcendental form. The major findings of this study were identified as follows: 1) Rural population and farmhouse population began to decrease from 1965 and hastily went down since 1975. Rural population which accounted for 36.4 percent, 35.6 percent of national population respectively in 1960 diminished about two times: 17.5 percent, 17.1 percent respectively. 2) The rapid decreasing of the rural population was caused because of the outflow of rural people to the urban regions. Of course, that was also caused from the natural decreases but the main reason was heavily affected more the former than the latter. In the outflowing course shaped from rural to the urban regions, rural people concentrated on such metropolis as Seoul, Pusan, Keanggi. But these trends were diminishing slowly. On the other hand, compared with that of the 1970's the migration to Keanggi was still increasing in the 1980's. That is, people altered the way of migration from the migration to Seoul, Pusan to the migration to the out-skirts of Seoul. 3) The seasonal fluctuation index of population migration has gone down since the June which the request of agricultural labor force increases and has turned to be greatly wanted in the March as result of decomposition time series method. As result of cyclical analysis, the cyclical patterns of migration have greatly 7 cycle. 4) As result of forecasting the rural and farmhouse population, rural and farmhouse population in the 2000 will be about 9,655(thousand/people) and 4,429(thousand/people) respectively. Thus, it is important to analyze the probloms that rural and farmhouse population will decrease or increase by the degree. But fairly defining the agricultural into a industry that supply the food, this problem - how much our nation need the rural and farmhouse population - is greatly significant too. Therefore, the basic problems of the agricultural including the outflows of rural people are the earning differentials between rural and urban regions. And we should regard the problems of the gap of relative incomes between rural and urban regions as the main task of the agricultural policy and treat the agricultural policy in the viewpoint of developing economic equilibrium than efficiency by using actively the natural resources of the rural regions.

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Short-term Effect of Fine Particulate Matter on Children's Hospital Admissions and Emergency Department Visits for Asthma: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

  • Lim, Hyungryul;Kwon, Ho-Jang;Lim, Ji-Ae;Choi, Jong Hyuk;Ha, Mina;Hwang, Seung-sik;Choi, Won-Jun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.205-219
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: No children-specified review and meta-analysis paper about the short-term effect of fine particulate matter ($PM_{2.5}$) on hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma has been published. We calculated more precise pooled effect estimates on this topic and evaluated the variation in effect size according to the differences in study characteristics not considered in previous studies. Methods: Two authors each independently searched PubMed and EMBASE for relevant studies in March, 2016. We conducted random effect meta-analyses and mixed-effect meta-regression analyses using retrieved summary effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and some characteristics of selected studies. The Egger's test and funnel plot were used to check publication bias. All analyses were done using R version 3.1.3. Results: We ultimately retrieved 26 time-series and case-crossover design studies about the short-term effect of $PM_{2.5}$ on children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma. In the primary meta-analysis, children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma were positively associated with a short-term $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increase in $PM_{2.5}$ (relative risk, 1.048; 95% CI, 1.028 to 1.067; $I^2=95.7%$). We also found different effect coefficients by region; the value in Asia was estimated to be lower than in North America or Europe. Conclusions: We strengthened the evidence on the short-term effect of $PM_{2.5}$ on children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma. Further studies from other regions outside North America and Europe regions are needed for more generalizable evidence.

Analysis of Enactment and Utilization of Korean Industrial Standards(KS) by Time Series Data Mining (시계열 자료의 데이터마이닝을 통한 한국산업표준의 제정과 활용 분석)

  • Yoon, Jaekwon;Kim, Wan;Lee, Heesang
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.225-253
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    • 2015
  • The standard is a nation's one of the most important industrial issues that improve the social and economic efficiency and also the basis of the industrial development and trade liberalization. This research analyzes the enactment and the utilization of Korean industrial standards(KS) of various industries. This paper examines Korean industries' KS utilization status based on the KS possession, enactments and inquiry records. First, we implement multidimensional scaling method to visualize and group the KS possession records and the nation's institutional issues. We develop several hypothesis to find the decision factors of how each group's KS possession status impacts on the standard enactment activities of similar industry sectors, and analyzes the data by implementing regression analysis. The results show that the capital intensity, R&D activities and sales revenues affect standardization activities. It suggests that the government should encourage companies with high capital intensity, sales revenues to lead the industry's standard activities, and link the policies with the industry's standard and patent related activities from R&D. Second, we analyze the impacts of each KS data's inquiry records, the year of enactments, the form and the industrial segment on the utilization status by implementing statistical analysis and decision tree method. The results show that the enactment year has significant impact on the KS utilization status and some KSs of specific form and industrial segment have high utilization records despite of short enactment history. Our study suggests that government should make policies to utilize the low-utilized KSs and also consider the utilization of standards during the enactment processes.

Analysis of Research Trends in SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics Using Topic Modeling (토픽모델링을 활용한 SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics의 연구 동향 분석)

  • Kim, Sung-Yeun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.607-615
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the research status and trends related to the industrial mathematics based on text mining techniques with a sample of 4910 papers collected in the SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics from 1970 to 2019. The R program was used to collect titles, abstracts, and key words from the papers and to analyze topic modeling techniques based on LDA algorithm. As a result of the coherence score on the collected papers, 20 topics were determined optimally using the Gibbs sampling methods. The main results were as follows. First, studies on industrial mathematics were conducted in a variety of mathematics fields, including computational mathematics, geometry, mathematical modeling, topology, discrete mathematics, probability and statistics, with a focus on analysis and algebra. Second, 5 hot topics (mathematical biology, nonlinear partial differential equation, discrete mathematics, statistics, topology) and 1 cold topic (probability theory) were found based on time series regression analysis. Third, among the fields that were not reflected in the 2015 revised mathematics curriculum, numeral system, matrix, vector in space, and complex numbers were extracted as the contents to be covered in the high school mathematical curriculum. Finally, this study suggested strategies to activate industrial mathematics in Korea, described the study limitations, and proposed directions for future research.

Change in the Prevalence of Allergic Diseases and its Association with Air Pollution in Major Cities of Korea - Population under 19 Years Old in Different Land-use Areas - (주요 대도시 알레르기 질환 유병률 변화와 대기오염과의 관련성 - 지역 용도를 고려한 19세 이하 주민 대상 -)

  • Lee, Jiho;Oh, Inbo;Kim, Min-ho;Bang, Jin Hee;Park, Sang Jin;Yun, Seok Hyeon;Kim, Yangho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.478-490
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: The association of air pollution levels and land-use types with changes in the prevalence of allergic diseases (allergic conjunctivitis, allergic rhinitis, asthma, and atopic dermatitis) was investigated for seven metropolitan cities in Korea Methods: Data on daily hospital visits and admissions (of those under 19 years old) for 2003-2012 were obtained from the National Health Insurance Cooperation. Meteorological data on daily mean temperature, humidity, and air pressure were obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Daily mean or maximum concentration data for five pollutants ($PM_{10}$, $O_3$, $NO_2$, $SO_2$, and CO) as measured at air quality monitoring sites operated by the Ministry of Environment were used. We estimated excess risk and 95% confidence intervals for the increasing interquatile range (IQR) of each air pollutant using Generalized Additive Models (GAM) appropriate for time series analysis. Results: In this study, we observed a significant association between the IQR increases of air pollutants and the prevalence risk of allergic diseases (allergic conjunctivitis, allergic rhinitis, asthma, and atopic dermatitis) in all metropolitan cities after adjusting for temperature, humidity, and air pressure at sea level. Among the air pollutants, $NO_2$ and $PM_{10}$ were associated with the prevalence of asthma, and $O_3$ was associated with only allergic conjunctivitis in regression analysis. However, in GAM analysis considering land-use, $O_3$ and $SO_2$ were associated with allergic conjunctivitis, PM10, O3, NO2, and CO were associated with allergic rhinitis, and $PM_{10}$, $O_3$ and $NO_2$ were associated with asthma in industrial area. Conclusion: This study found a significant association between air pollution and the prevalence of allergic related diseases in industrial areas. More detailed research considering mixed traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) and conducting meta-analyses combining data of the all cities is required.

Ionic composition comparison of atmospheric aerosols at coastal and mountainous sites of jeju island (제주도 해안과 산간 지역 대기 에어러솔의 이온조성 비교)

  • Hong, Sang-Bum;Jung, Duk-Sang;Lee, Soon-Bong;Lee, Dong-Eun;Shin, Seung-Hee;Kang, Chang-Hee
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.24-37
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    • 2011
  • The ionic compositions of atmospheric aerosols were investigated and characterized in coastal and mountainous sites of Jeju Island, which were Gosan and Mt. Halla-1100 sites respectively. It was found that the concentrations of nss-$SO_4^{2-}$ (non-sea salt sulfate) and $NH_4^+$ at two measurement sites were almost similar and they showed high concentrations in June at the same time. The concentration of soil-originated nss-$Ca^{2+}$ (non-sea salt calcium) was generally associated with that of anthropogenic $NO_3^-$ and its concentration was increased during spring season. From the comparison of time-series variation and regression analysis of ionic species between two measurement sites, TSP (total suspended particulate) in Gosan site was directly influenced by sea salt particles and the concentration levels of nss-$SO_4^{2-}$, $NH_4^+$, nss-$Ca^{2+}$, $K^+$, and $NO_3^-$ were mainly related with long-range transported air pollutants rather than local pollution sources.

A Study of Influence about Life Insurance Asset Management to Interest Decline (금리하락이 생명보험회사 자산운용실태에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Hee-seog;Kim, Sun-Je
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.99-116
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this paper is to see what the problem is and what the direction of the strategy of asset management after this study has analyzed asset management status of domestic life insurance companies according to interest rate trends, analyzing in time series management asset lists, asset distribution state, and securities list of life insurance companies during 2000~2014. It has carried correlation analysis and regression analysis between yield and bond interest KOSPI index. As the study result, life insurance companies have managed assets in stability than profitability. The correlation coefficient between interest rate and performance rates of total asset, management asset and securities is highly plus, correlation of management asset performance rate is higher than that of total asset performance rate, and the correlation of securities performance rate is higher than that of management asset performance rate. The correlation coefficient of KOSPI and performance rate shows minus. The suggestion is that the change of asset management is required as the interest decline rises up a reverse margin risk because of the asset management of stability.