• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time Series Analysis

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ERF Components Patterns of Causal Question Generation during Observation of Biological Phenomena : A MEG Study (생명현상 관찰에서 나타나는 인과적 의문 생성의 ERF 특성 : MEG 연구)

  • Kwon, Suk-Won;Kwon, Yong-Ju
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.336-345
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to analysis ERF components patterns of causal questions generated during the observation of biological phenomenon. First, the system that shows pictures causing causal questions based on biological phenomenon (evoked picture system) was developed in a way of cognitive psychology. The ERF patterns of causal questions based on time-series brain processing was observed using MEG. The evoked picture system was developed by R&D method consisting of scientific education experts and researchers. Tasks were classified into animal (A), microbe (M), and plant (P) tasks according to biological species and into interaction (I), all (A), and part (P) based on the interaction between different species. According to the collaboration with MEG team in the hospital of Seoul National University, the paradigm of MEG task was developed. MEG data about the generation of scientific questions in 5 female graduate student were collected. For examining the unique characteristic of causal question, MEG ERF components were analyzed. As a result, total 100 pictures were produced by evoked picture and 4 ERF components, M1(100~130ms), M2(220~280ms), M3(320~390ms), M4(460~520ms). The present study could guide personalized teaching-learning method through the application and development of scientific question learning program.

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A Study on Oil Price Risk Affecting the Korean Stock Market (한국주식시장에 파급되는 국제유가의 위험에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Ji-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.75-106
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    • 2007
  • In this study, it is analyzed whether oil price plays a major role in the pricing return on Koran stock market and examined why the covariance risk between oil and return on stock is different in each industry. Firstly, this study explores whether the expected rate of return on stock is pricing due to global oil price factors as a function of risk premium by using a two-factor APT. Also, it is examined whether spill-over effects of oil price volatility affect the beta risk to oil price. Considering the asymmetry of oil price volatility, we use the GJR model. As a result, it shows that oil price is an independent pricing factor and oil price volatility transmits to stock return in only electricity and electrical equipment. Secondly, the two step-analyzing process is introduced to find why the covariance between oil price factor and stock return is different in each industry. The first step is to study whether beta risk exists in each industry by using two proxy variables like size and liquidity as control variables. The second step is to grasp the systematic relationship between the difference of liquidity and size and beta to oil price factor by using the panel-data model which can be analyzed efficiently using the cross-sectional data formed with time series. Through the analysis, we can argue that oil price factor is an independent pricing factor in only electricity and electrical equipment having the greatest market capitalization, and know that beta risk to oil price factor is a proxy of size in the other industries. According to the result of panel-data model, it is argued that the beta to oil price factor augments when market capitalization increases and this fact supports the first assertion. In conclusion, the expected rate of return of electricity and electrical equipment works as a function of risk premium to market portfolio and oil price, and the reason to make beta risk power differentiated in each industry attributes to the size.

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The geography of external control in Korean manufacturing industry (한국제조업에서의 외부통제에 관한 공간적 분석)

  • ;Beck, Yeong-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.146-168
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    • 1995
  • problems involved in defining and identifying it. However, data on ownership of business establishments may be useful and one of the best alternatives for this empirical research because of use of limited information about control This study examines the spatial patterns of external control in the Korean manufacturing activities between 1986 and 1992. Using the data on ownership iinkages of multilocational firms between 15 administrative areas, it was possible to construct a matrix of organizational control in terms of the number of establishments. The control matrix was disaggregated by three types of manufacturing industries according to the capital and labor requirements of production processes used in. On the basis of the disaggregated control matrix, a series of measures were calculated for investigating the magnitude and direction of control as well as the external dependency. In the past decades Korean industrialization development has risen at a rapid pace, deepening integration into the world economy, together with the continuing growth of the large industrial firms. The expanded scale of large firms led to a spatial separation of production from control, Increasing branch plants in the nation. But recent important changes have occurred in the spatial organization of production by technological development, increasing international competition, and changing local labor markets. These changes have forced firms to reorganize their production structures, resulting in changes of the organizational structures in certain industries and regions. In this context the empirical analysis revealed the following principal trends. In general term, the geography of corporate control in Korea is marked by a twofold pattern of concentration and dispersion. The dominance of Seoul as a major command and control center has been evident over the period, though its overall share of allexternally controlled establishments has decreased from 88% to 79%. And the substantial amount of external control from Seoul has concentrated to the Kyongki and Southeast regions which are well-developed industrial areas. But Seoul's corporate ownership links tend to streteh across the country to the less-developed regions, most of which have shown a significant increase of external dependency during the period 1986-1992. At the same time, a geographic dispersion of corporate control is taking place as Kyongki province and Pusan are developing as new increasingly important command and control reaions. Though these two resions contain a number of branch plants controlled from other locations, they may be increasingly attractive as a headquarters location with increasing locally owned establishments. The geographical patterns of external control observable in each of three types of manufacturing industries were examined in order to distinguish the changing spatial structures of organizational control with respect to the characteristics of the production processes. Labor intensive manufacturing with unskilled iabor experienced the strongest external pressure from foreign competition and a lack of low cost labor. The high pressure expected not only to disinte-grate the production process but also led to location of production facilities in areas of cheap labor. The linkages of control between Seoul and the less-developed regions have slightly increased, while the external dependency of the industrialized regions might be reduced from the tendency of organizational disintegration. Capita1 intensive manufacturing operates under high entry and exit barriers due to capital intensity. The need to increase scale economies ied to an even stronger economic and spatial oncentration of control. The strong geographical oncentration of control might be influenced by orporate and organizational scale economies rather than by locational advantages. Other sectors experience with respect to branch plants of multilocational firms. The policy implications of the increase of external dependency in less-developed regions may be negative because of the very share of unskilled workers and lack of autonomy in decision making. The strong growth of the national economy and a scarcity of labor in core areas have been important factors in this regional decentralization of industries to less-developed regions. But the rather gloomy prospects of the economic growth in the near future could prevent the further industrialization of less-developed areas. A major rethinking of regional policy would have to take place towards a need for a regional policy actively favoring indigenous establishments.

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A Study on Long-term Variations of BOD and COD as Indicators of Organic Matter Pollution in the Han River (한강 본류에서 유기물 오염도 지표인 BOD와 COD에 대한 장기변동 특성)

  • Cho, Hyun-Seok;Kim, Kwang-Rae;Lim, Gyu-Chul;Bae, Kyung-Seok;Lee, Min-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.474-481
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    • 2012
  • This study was performed to investigate the degree of long-term pollution at the mainstream of the Han River by comparing the concentration of BOD and COD from 1975 to 2011. The long-term annual average BOD and COD concentration at the mainstream of the Han River showed an increasing trend as it flowed downstream from Paldang Dam to Gayang. The concentration of BOD ($r^2$=0.646) and COD ($r^2$=0.260) showed a consistent decreasing trend for 37 years. In the case of Paldang Dam, BOD has maintained a decreasing trend, whereas the COD value showed an increasing trend after the 1990s. Therefore, a control of non-biodegradable materials in areas around Paldang Dam is required. The result of the seasonal variations of BOD and COD is as follows: spring>winter>summer and fall (p<0.001). The time series analysis revealed a strong correlation for every 12-month period. Also, the amount of water discharge at Paldang Dam has to be systematically controlled because the amount of water discharge from the dam influences the water quality at the mainstream of the Han River.

Detecting Phenology Using MODIS Vegetation Indices and Forest Type Map in South Korea (MODIS 식생지수와 임상도를 활용한 산림 식물계절 분석)

  • Lee, Bora;Kim, Eunsook;Lee, Jisun;Chung, Jae-Min;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.2_1
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    • pp.267-282
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    • 2018
  • Despite the continuous development of phenology detection studies using satellite imagery, verification through comparison with the field observed data is insufficient. Especially, in the case of Korean forests patching in various forms, it is difficult to estimate the start of season (SOS) by using only satellite images due to resolution difference. To improve the accuracy of vegetation phenology estimation, this study reconstructed the large scaled forest type map (1:5,000) with MODIS pixel resolution and produced time series vegetation phenology curves from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from MODIS images. Based on the field observed data, extraction methods for the vegetation indices and SOS for Korean forests were compared and evaluated. We also analyzed the correlation between the composition ratio of forest types in each pixel and phenology extraction from the vegetation indices. When we compared NDVI and EVI with the field observed SOS data from the Korea National Arboretum, EVI was more accurate for Korean forests, and the first derivative was most suitable for extracting SOS in the phenology curve from the vegetation index. When the eight pixels neighboring the pixels of 7 broadleaved trees with field SOS data (center pixel) were compared to field SOS, the forest types of the best pixels with the highest correlation with the field data were deciduous forest by 67.9%, coniferous forest by 14.3%, and mixed forest by 7.7%, and the mean coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was 0.64. The average national SOS extracted from MODIS EVI were DOY 112.9 in 2014 at the earliest and DOY 129.1 in 2010 at the latest, which is about 0.16 days faster since 2003. In future research, it is necessary to expand the analysis of deciduous and mixed forests' SOS into the extraction of coniferous forest's SOS in order to understand the various climate and geomorphic factors. As such, comprehensive study should be carried out considering the diversity of forest ecosystems in Korea.

A Study on the Optimum Design of Multiple Screw Type Dryer for Treatment of Sewage Sludge (하수슬러지 처리를 위한 다축 스크류 난류 접촉식 건조기의 최적 설계 연구)

  • Na, En-Soo;Shin, Sung-Soo;Shin, Mi-Soo;Jang, Dong-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.223-231
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate basically the mechanism of heat transfer by the resolution of complex fluid flow inside a sophisticated designed screw dryer for the treatment of sewage sludge by using numerical analysis and experimental study. By doing this, the result was quite helpful to obtain the design criteria for enhancing drying efficiency, thereby achieving the optimal design of a multiple screw type dryer for treating inorganic and organic sludge wastes. One notable design feature of the dryer was to bypass a certain of fraction of the hot combustion gases into the bottom of the screw cylinder, by the fluid flow induction, across the delicately designed holes on the screw surface to agitate internally the sticky sludges. This offers many benefits not only in the enhancement of thermal efficiency even for the high viscosity material but also greater flexibility in the application of system design and operation. However, one careful precaution was made in operation in that when distributing the hot flue gas over the lump of sludge for internal agitation not to make any pore blocking and to avoid too much pressure drop caused by inertial resistance across the lump of sludge. The optimal retention time for rotating the screw at 1 rpm in order to treat 200 kg/hr of sewage sludge was determined empirically about 100 minutes. The corresponding optimal heat source was found to be 150,000 kcal/hr. A series of numerical calculation is performed to resolve flow characteristics in order to assist in the system design as function of important system and operational variables. The numerical calculation is successfully evaluated against experimental temperature profile and flow field characteristics. In general, the calculation results are physically reasonable and consistent in parametric study. In further studies, more quantitative data analyses such as pressure drop across the type and loading of drying sludge will be made for the system evaluation in experiment and calculation.

Spatio-temporal enhancement of forest fire risk index using weather forecast and satellite data in South Korea (기상 예보 및 위성 자료를 이용한 우리나라 산불위험지수의 시공간적 고도화)

  • KANG, Yoo-Jin;PARK, Su-min;JANG, Eun-na;IM, Jung-ho;KWON, Chun-Geun;LEE, Suk-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.116-130
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    • 2019
  • In South Korea, forest fire occurrences are increasing in size and duration due to various factors such as the increase in fuel materials and frequent drying conditions in forests. Therefore, it is necessary to minimize the damage caused by forest fires by appropriately providing the probability of forest fire risk. The purpose of this study is to improve the Daily Weather Index(DWI) provided by the current forest fire forecasting system in South Korea. A new Fire Risk Index(FRI) is proposed in this study, which is provided in a 5km grid through the synergistic use of numerical weather forecast data, satellite-based drought indices, and forest fire-prone areas. The FRI is calculated based on the product of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code(FFMC) optimized for Korea, an integrated drought index, and spatio-temporal weighting approaches. In order to improve the temporal accuracy of forest fire risk, monthly weights were applied based on the forest fire occurrences by month. Similarly, spatial weights were applied using the forest fire density information to improve the spatial accuracy of forest fire risk. In the time series analysis of the number of monthly forest fires and the FRI, the relationship between the two were well simulated. In addition, it was possible to provide more spatially detailed information on forest fire risk when using FRI in the 5km grid than DWI based on administrative units. The research findings from this study can help make appropriate decisions before and after forest fire occurrences.

A Study on Estimating Optimal Tonnage of Coastal Cargo Vessels in Korea (우리나라 연안화물선의 적정선복량 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 이청환;이철영
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.21-53
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    • 1989
  • In the past twenty years, there has been a rapid increase in the volume of traffic in Korea due to the Korean great growth of the Korean economy. Since transformation provides an infrastructure vital to economic growth, it becomes more and more an integral part of the Korea economy. The importance of coastal shipping stands out in particular, not only because of the expansion limit on the road network, but also because of saturation in the capacity of rail transportation. In spite of this increase and its importance, coastal shipping is falling behind partly because it is givenless emphasis than ocean-going shipping and other inland transportation systems and partly because of overcompetition due to excessive ship tonnage. Therefore, estimating and planning optimum ship tonnage is the first take to develop Korean coastal shipping. This paper aims to estimate the optimum coastal ship tonnage by computer simulation and finally to draw up plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand. The estimation of the optimum ship tonnage is peformed by the method of Origin -Destimation and time series analysis. The result are as follows : (1) The optimum ship tonnage in 1987 was 358, 680 DWT, which is 54% of the current ship tonnage (481 ships, 662, 664DWT) that is equal to the optimum ship tonnage in 1998. this overcapacity result is in excessive competition and financial difficulties in Korea coastal shipping. (2) The excessive ship tonnage can be broken down into ship types as follows : oil carrier 250, 926 DWT(350%), cement carrier 9, 977 DWT(119%), iron material/machinery carrier 25, 665 DWT(117%), general cargo carrier 17, 416DWT(112%). (3) the current total ship crew of 5, 079 is more than the verified optimally efficient figure of 3, 808 by 1271. (4) From the viewpoint of management strategy, it is necessary that excessive ship tonnage be reduced and uneconomic outdated vessels be broken up. And its found that the diversion into economically efficient fleets is urgently required in order to meet increasing annual rate in the amounts of cargo(23, 877DWT). (5) The plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand are as follows 1) The establishment of a legislative system for the arrangement of ship tonnage. This would involve; (a) The announcement of an optimum tonnage which guides the licensing of cargo vessels and ship tonnage supply. (b) The establishment of an organization that substantially arrangement tonnage in Korea coastal shipping. 2) The announcement of an optimum ship tonnage both per year and short-term that guides current tonnage supply plans. 3) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protect6ion of coastal shipping's share from other tonnage supply plans. 4) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protection of coastal shipping's share from other transportation systems. 4) Restriction of ocean-going vessels from participating in coastal shipping routes. 5) Business rationalization of coastal shipping company which reduces uneconomic outdated vessels and boosts the national economy. If we are to achieve these ends, the followings are prerequisites; I) Because many non-licensed vessels are actually operating and threatening the safe voyage of the others in Korea coastal routes, it is necessary that those ind of vessels be controlled and punished by the authorities. II) The supply of ship tonnage in Korean coastal routes should be predently monitored because most of the coastal vessels are to small to be diverted into ocean-going routes in case of excessive supply. III) Every ship type which is engaged in coastal shipping should be specialized according to the characteristics of its routes as soon possible.

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The Impact of SSM Market Entry on Changes in Market Shares among Retailing Types (기업형 슈퍼마켓(SSM)의 시장진입이 소매업태간 시장점유율 변화에 미친 영향)

  • Choi, Ji-Ho;Yonn, Min-Suk;Moon, Youn-Hee;Choi, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.115-132
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    • 2012
  • This study empirically examines the impact of SSM market entry on changes in market shares among retailing types. The data is monthly time-series data spanning over the period from January 2000 to December 2010, and the effect of SSM market entry on market shares of retailing types is analyzed by utilizing several key factors such as the number of new SSM monthly entrants, total number of SSMs, the proportion of new SSM entrant that is smaller than $165m^2$ to total new SSM entrants. According to the Korean Standard Industrial Classification codes, the retailing type is classified into 5 groups: department stores, retail sale in other non-specialized large stores(big marts), supermarkets, convenience stores, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating (others). The market shares of retailing types are calculated by the ratio of each retailing type monthly sales to total monthly retailing sales in which total retailing sales is the sum of each retailing type sales. The empirical model controls for the size effects with the number of monthly employees for each retailing type and the macroeconomic effects with M2. The empirical model employed in this study is as follows; $$MS_i=f(NewSSM,\;CumSSM,\;employ_i,\;under165,\;M2)$$ where $MS_i$ is the market share of each retailing type (department stores, big marts), supermarkets, convenience stores, and others), NewSSM is the number of new SSM monthly entrants, CumSSM is total number of SSMs, $employ_i$ is the number of monthly employees for each retailing type, and under165 is the proportion of new SSM entrant that is smaller than $165m^2$ to total new SSM entrants. The correlation among these variables are reported in

    .
    shows the descriptive statistics of the sample. Sales is the total monthly revenue of each retailing type, employees is total number of monthly employees for each retailing type, area is total floor space of each retail type($m^2$), number of store is total number of monthly stores for each retailing type, market share is the ratio of each retailing type monthly sales to total monthly retailing sales in which total retailing sales is the sum of each retailing type sales, new monthly SSMs is total number of new monthly SSM entrants, and M2 is a money supply. The empirical results of the effect of new SSM market entry on changes in market shares among retailing types (department stores, retail sale in other non-specialized large stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating) are reported in
    . The dependant variables are the market share of department stores, the market share of big marts, the market share of supermarkets, the market share of convenience stores, and the market share of others. The result shows that the impact of new SSM market entry on changes in market share of retail sale in other non-specialized large stores (big marts) is statistically significant. Total number of monthly SSM stores has a significant effect on market share, but the magnitude and sign of effect is different among retailing types. The increase in the number of SSM stores has a negative effect on the market share of retail sale in other non-specialized large stores(big marts) and convenience stores, but has a positive impact on the market share of department stores, supermarkets, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating (others). This study offers the theoretical and practical implication to these findings and also suggests the direction for the further analysis.

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  • Role of Radiotherapy for Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the External Auditory Canal and Middle Ear (외이도 및 중이 편평상피암의 방사선치료)

    • Kang, Hyun-Cheol;Wu, Hong-Gyun;Lee, Ji-Hye;Park, Charn-Il;Kim, Chong-Sun;Oh, Seung-Ha;Heo, Dae-Seog;Kim, Dong-Wan;Lee, Se-Hoon
      • Radiation Oncology Journal
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      • v.27 no.4
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      • pp.173-180
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      • 2009
    • Purpose: To investigate the role of radiotherapy for squamous cell carcinomas of the external auditory canal and middle ear. Materials and Methods: A series of 35 patients who were treated at a single institution from 1981 through 2007 were retrospectively analyzed. Thirteen patients were treated by radiotherapy alone; four by surgery only and 18 by a combination of surgery and radiotherapy. The total radiation dose ranged from 39~70 Gy (median, 66 Gy) in 13~35 fractions for radiotherapy alone and 44~70 Gy (median, 61.2 Gy) in 22~37 fractions for the combined therapy. Clinical end-points were the cause of specific survival (CSS) and local relapse-free survival (LRFS). The median follow-up time was 2.8 years (range, 0.2~14.6 years). Results: The 3-year CSS and LRFS rate was 80% and 63%, respectively. Based on a univariate analysis, performance status and residual disease after treatment had a significant impact on CSS; performance status and histologic grade for LRFS. Patients treated by radiotherapy alone had more residual disease following the course of treatment compared to patients treated with the combined therapy; 69% vs. 28%, respectively. Conclusion: Our results suggest that radiation alone was not an inferior treatment modality for CSS compared to the combined therapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the external auditory canal and middle ear. However, local failure after radiotherapy is the main issue that will require further improvement to gain optimal local control.


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